Thought I posted an answer to this but apparently it got lost in the interspace. Must have been a “glitch”.
Anyway, I lean towards the top. The caveat (and it’s a big one) is that neither Simmons nor Embiid has reached his prime. If they do eventually reach the expections we have for them then bottom wins. But going by the best we’ve seen from all players so far-
AI is the best player on the floor. By a lot. 3 on 3? That’s playground ball and nobody is beating AI at playground ball. He’ll score at will. Love Lou Will but he’s the worst defender on the floor and he’s not keeping pace with AI offensively. Iggy won a Finals MVP for the job he did defensively against prime LeBron, he’ll make life miserable for Simmons. Deke won’t score but he was a great defensive center, he won’t shut Embiid down any more than he shut Shaq down in the 2001 Finals, but he’ll make it hard for JoJo. Simmons’ greatest asset has been his passing, he has fewer options 3 on 3 than 5 on 5. I think prime Iggy vs prime (as of now) Simmons is more or less a wash. The question is can Embiid’s edge over Deke offset AI’s edge over Sweet Lou. I think not, but it would be an interesting matchup.