Tank Thread 2015/16 (Part IV)

[ps241]

Both home games - I say we shock Chicago in both of them. Might go to OT in one if not both, but we win those.

I am so confused I am trying to decide whether you are being optimistic or pessimistic?

 

[Derfel*]

I am so confused I am trying to decide whether you are being optimistic or pessimistic?

Both... and neither?

I just think they Jets will shock Chicago on those occasions, and LA will run us over. The rest are toss-ups, really.

 

[ps241]

Both... and neither?

I just think they Jets will shock Chicago on those occasions, and LA will run us over. The rest are toss-ups, really.

I feel like this accurately sums up how I feel about this season......confused, conflicted, sad, hopeful

 

[Jetabre]

2 wins in a row, need to get back on track, big loss tomorrow needed.

 

[Gil Fisher]

​

I would say we lose to Ottawa

They always seem to beat us

True, but they are horrible...as are Buffalo, Vancouver, Calgary, Minnesota and Philadelphia.

Okay, Philly aren't that bad...not far off of us at 5v5.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Leafs won?

 

[raideralex99]

Leafs won?

Two in a row against playoff teams.

 

[Whileee]

Edmonton is getting Matthews. I think it's their destiny.

 

[heretik27]

Edmonton is getting Matthews. I think it's their destiny.

HFBoards will riot if they get another 1st OA.

 

[raideralex99]

Edmonton ... Where first round picks go to die.

 

[raideralex99]

You guys [mod] would lose your shorts in Vegas.
Every team who misses the playoffs has a chance at winning the #1 pick.
I want the Jets to win every game.
Go Jets go ... only 6 wins out of the playoffs. Win 12 out of 15 games and you 're in the playoffs.
Play hard or go home.

 

[Daximus]

The hockey world will riot if they get another 1st OA.

If there is any sort of fix or conspiracy at this years lottery I think it will be that Edmonton is not included. If they win again it's pure luck... or unluck... not sure.

 

[Daximus]

You guys [mod] would lose your shorts in Vegas.
Every team who misses the playoffs has a chance at winning the #1 pick.
I want the Jets to win every game.
Go Jets go ... only 6 wins out of the playoffs. Win 12 out of 15 games and you 're in the playoffs.
Play hard or go home.

Well technically we'd have to win 13 of our next 13 and the Wild would have to lose at least 5 of their next 12 for us to make the playoffs
Screw that ****.

The thing about finishing 14th is that you're far more likely to pick 14th than 1st, 2nd and 3rd combined.
The nice thing about finishing last is you pick top 4 no matter what.
Screw winning every game. I'm putting a curse on this damn team. LOSE JETS LOSE!
Lose every single game from here on out.

 

[Gil Fisher]

You guys [mod] would lose your shorts in Vegas.
Every team who misses the playoffs has a chance at winning the #1 pick.
I want the Jets to win every game.
Go Jets go ... only 6 wins out of the playoffs. Win 12 out of 15 games and you 're in the playoffs.
Play hard or go home.

you won't last long in Vegas if you don't try to maximize your odds

 

[kylbaz]

It's hard to cheer agains the Jets. When you don't watch the game, it's nice to see them lose, but when you're watching you want them to play well lol.

A few wins and we can easily fall to 7th pick, and I'm worried that's what's going to happen.

 

[Jetabre]

It's hard to cheer agains the Jets. When you don't watch the game, it's nice to see them lose, but when you're watching you want them to play well lol.

A few wins and we can easily fall to 7th pick, and I'm worried that's what's going to happen.

I don't really feel much with a win or loss. I might get a bit pissed if we squander the chance for a top 5 pick with a meaningless win streak, but what I watch for is the younger guys having good games. That's what I'm cheering for to finish out the season.

 

[Daximus]

I don't really feel much with a win or loss. I might get a bit pissed if we squander the chance for a top 5 pick with a meaningless win streak, but what I watch for is the younger guys having good games. That's what I'm cheering for to finish out the season.

That's exactly what I do.
I want to see them getting better but at the same time would prefer them to do that in a loss.
Winning right now is more of a morale killer for me.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I didn't start cheering for the Jets until they scored their 3rd goal last night. I was incredibly detached up to then. when you get older, you can turn on and off your emotions like a switch. It's part of good parenting. Or bad parenting. Time will tell.

 

[Gil Fisher]

That's exactly what I do.
I want to see them getting better but at the same time would prefer them to do that in a loss.
Winning right now is more of a morale killer for me.

Yeah. Ideally, we score 3-4 goals per night and Pav lets in 4-5. Or we completely dominate but run into a hot goalie.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I think this term goes on run. Looks like we're picking 8.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Leafs beat the Bolts tonight. They are 3-1-1 in their last 5. They have a 12% chance of finishing higher than 27th. Their kids are adjusting to the pro game. Good for them.

Now, hopefully Calgary has another night against the Jets like they did against the Blues.

 

[raideralex99]

Screw winning every game. I'm putting a curse on this damn team. LOSE JETS LOSE!
Lose every single game from here on out.

I see what you did there.

 

[Whileee]

Leafs beat the Bolts tonight. They are 3-1-1 in their last 5. They have a 12% chance of finishing higher than 27th. Their kids are adjusting to the pro game. Good for them.

Now, hopefully Calgary has another night against the Jets like they did against the Blues.

I hope Bernier gets red hot and carries the Leafs to some unexpected victories.

I don't know how good the methodology is, but here is a sight that continuously updates projected standings at the end of the year. http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

At this point, the Jets are projected to finish 27th (0.3 points ahead of Calgary ).

If the Jets finish 27th (4th last), they'll have only a 29% chance at at top-3 pick, a 30% chance at a 4th or 5th pick, and a 40% chance of 6th or 7th. They are much more likely to pick 5-7th (about 68%) than a top 3.

Even if they finish 3rd last, their chance of a top-3 pick is only 34%, whereas the chance of 5th or 6th pick is over 50%.

I believe in probability, so even if the Jets don't climb at all in the standings I am preparing for thinking about a 5th or 6th overall pick.

There's a pretty good chance the Jets could end up with PLD or Chychrun. I suppose a team might fall in love with Tkachuk, in which case either PLD or Chychrun might be available.

For some reason, I have this nagging feeling that the new lottery system might mean that the Jets don't end up with quite the elite player we might hope for.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I've resigned myself to the idea of the Jets picking outside of the top 3. As such, while we may not enjoy Matthews or Laine, the rest of the talent is legit. It's important to finish in the top 7, though.

Matthews
Laine
---
Puljujarvi
PLD
Chychrun
---
Sergachev
Tkachuk
Juolevi

Those are roughly the current tiers for the top 7-8, with a lot moving between the 2nd group and 3rd group based on team preference and draft boards. The only player in that list I take Tkachuk over is Juolevi, but that isn't a sure thing.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I think the Jets end up with PLD. I'd be happy with that.