Tank or re-tool on the fly?

[Dezmoto]

On the "Tanking" part of the topic, do you know how many teams who have picked first overall since 2000 have actually won Stanley Cups?

2, Pittsburg and Chicago.

Meanwhile, the Kings have won 2 cups and haven't drafted 1st since 1967 and Detroit has won twice as well, and they haven't drafted 1st since 1986.

I fail to see the advantage of tanking the season.

 

[SnapIt]

Boston Bruins:
'01-'02: 2nd place
'02-'03: 15th place (Bergeron selected in round 2)
'03-'04: 4th place (Krejci round 2, Versteeg round 5)
'05-'06: 26th place (Kessel round 1, Lucic round 2, Marchand round 3)
'06-'07: 22nd place
'07-'08: 15th place
'08-'09: 2nd place
'09-'10: 14th place (Seguin round 1, courtesy of Phil Kessel trade)
'10-'11: 7th place (Hamilton round 1)

Since this thread is about tanking, may as well post history of some teams which are currently dominant. Why not start with the B's?

 

[Wilch]

On the "Tanking" part of the topic, do you know how many teams who have picked first overall since 2000 have actually won Stanley Cups?

2, Pittsburg and Chicago.

Meanwhile, the Kings have won 2 cups and haven't drafted 1st since 1967 and Detroit has won twice as well, and they haven't drafted 1st since 1986.

I fail to see the advantage of tanking the season.

Using the 1st overall only is too small a sample.

Maybe you should expand it to top 5 picks.

 

[Bad News Benning]

2015 draft is the deepest since 2003 from all reports.

Drafted in the Top 10 that year

MA. Fleury
E.Staal
Nathan Horton
Nikolai Zherdev
Thomas Vanek
Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn

So lets say we draft from 11-14 which is what everyone is worried about.

Jeff Carter (elite sniper)
Hugh Jessiman (bust who was not projected to go this high)
Brent Seabrook (Top pairing defenseman)
Dustin Brown (top 6 forward and 2x cup champ)

Now that's without mentioning all the studs picked beyond the lottery. Getzlaf, Perry, Weber, Bergeron, Backes, Eriksson, Parise, Kesler, Richards, Burns, etc

Point is in a deep draft you can still grab an elite player. Canuck fans are born pessimistic. If we don't get McJesus this franchise is screwed! game over man game over what the **** we gonna do now! I really wish we had bombed in 2002-03 season. We could have had a shot at Zherdev or Michalek! shame we got stuck with Ryan Kesler.

 

[opendoor]

On the "Tanking" part of the topic, do you know how many teams who have picked first overall since 2000 have actually won Stanley Cups?

2, Pittsburg and Chicago.

Meanwhile, the Kings have won 2 cups and haven't drafted 1st since 1967 and Detroit has won twice as well, and they haven't drafted 1st since 1986.

I fail to see the advantage of tanking the season.

How many cups does LA win if they don't grab Doughty at #2 in 2008?

 

[Bad News Benning]

How many cups does LA win if they don't grab Doughty at #2 in 2008?

maybe they finish just out of a playoff spot and are smart enough to grab Erik Karlsson?

 

[LiquidSnake]

2015 draft is the deepest since 2003 from all reports.

Drafted in the Top 10 that year

MA. Fleury
E.Staal
Nathan Horton
Nikolai Zherdev
Thomas Vanek
Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn

So lets say we draft from 11-14 which is what everyone is worried about.

Jeff Carter (elite sniper)
Hugh Jessiman (bust who was not projected to go this high)
Brent Seabrook (Top pairing defenseman)
Dustin Brown (top 6 forward and 2x cup champ)

Now that's without mentioning all the studs picked beyond the lottery. Getzlaf, Perry, Weber, Bergeron, Backes, Eriksson, Parise, Kesler, Richards, Burns, etc

Point is in a deep draft you can still grab an elite player. Canuck fans are born pessimistic. If we don't get McJesus this franchise is screwed! game over man game over what the **** we gonna do now! I really wish we had bombed in 2002-03 season. We could have had a shot at Zherdev or Michalek! shame we got stuck with Ryan Kesler.

Good like finding any of those. Better to have a higher pick because the probability is better.

 

[Dezmoto]

How many cups does LA win if they don't grab Doughty at #2 in 2008?

Hard to say, but out of the 11 first round draft picks before they won their first cup, only 4 are actually playing on the team. Kopitar, Brown, Doughty and Pearson.

*EDIT* Correction, Pearson was drafted in 2012, that would be 3 players.

 

[LiquidSnake]

Hard to say, but out of the 11 first round draft picks before they won their first cup, only 4 are actually playing on the team. Kopitar, Brown, Doughty and Pearson.

And they flipped Schenn for Richards

and Jack Johnson for Carter.

Both high picks.

That's 6 guys

 

[opendoor]

maybe they finish just out of a playoff spot and are smart enough to grab Erik Karlsson?

It's not even a what if. They had the #13 pick that year too and they got Colton Teubert.

 

[Dezmoto]

And they flipped Schenn for Richards

and Jack Johnson for Carter.

Both high picks.

That's 6 guys

Johnson was drafted by Carolina, not LA. And yes, Schenn was drafted 5th overall, but was traded before their first cup.

 

[Bad News Benning]

Good like finding any of those. Better to have a higher pick because the probability is better.

The probability is rather high you will alienate your fan base, demoralize your players, and become the laughing stock of the league? . I'd rather be competitive and draft/trade well. Im not sure why people think drafting high will fix all your problems. Bet the same people who are pro tank mcdavid were the same ones mocking the oilers a few years ago for being a joke of an organization and having lottery parties...now you're just looking like hypocrites.

 

[Dezmoto]

The probability is rather high you will alienate your fan base, demoralize your players, and become the laughing stock of the league? . I'd rather be competitive and draft/trade well. Im not sure why people think drafting high will fix all your problems. Bet the same people who are pro tank mcdavid were the same ones mocking the oilers a few years ago for being a joke of an organization and having lottery parties...now you're just looking like hypocrites.

The Oilers have been drafting high for almost 20 years now, hasn't done much for them. Same with the Islanders.

 

[opendoor]

The probability is rather high you will alienate your fan base, demoralize your players, and become the laughing stock of the league? . I'd rather be competitive and draft/trade well. Im not sure why people think drafting high will fix all your problems. Bet the same people who are pro tank mcdavid were the same ones mocking the oilers a few years ago for being a joke of an organization and having lottery parties...now you're just looking like hypocrites.

The problem is "draft better" is far easier said than done. It's also not even really a strategy since it's what every single team in the NHL strives to do every year.

If a team is setting themselves up for a situation where they're going to be consistently drafting in the 10-20 range and expect to be able to replace elite players like the Sedins in any kind of reasonable time frame, they're going to have to pretty much outdraft the entire league. Given the Canucks' scouting prowess over the last decade or so I don't think it's out of line to be exceedingly skeptical that that's going to be possible.

 

[RandV]

2015 draft is the deepest since 2003 from all reports.

Drafted in the Top 10 that year

MA. Fleury
E.Staal
Nathan Horton
Nikolai Zherdev
Thomas Vanek
Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Braydon Coburn
Dion Phaneuf
Andrei Kostitsyn

So lets say we draft from 11-14 which is what everyone is worried about.

Jeff Carter (elite sniper)
Hugh Jessiman (bust who was not projected to go this high)
Brent Seabrook (Top pairing defenseman)
Dustin Brown (top 6 forward and 2x cup champ)

Now that's without mentioning all the studs picked beyond the lottery. Getzlaf, Perry, Weber, Bergeron, Backes, Eriksson, Parise, Kesler, Richards, Burns, etc

Point is in a deep draft you can still grab an elite player. Canuck fans are born pessimistic. If we don't get McJesus this franchise is screwed! game over man game over what the **** we gonna do now! I really wish we had bombed in 2002-03 season. We could have had a shot at Zherdev or Michalek! shame we got stuck with Ryan Kesler.

Yep that's pretty much the fallacy from the tankers side. They look at our prospects/players and don't see anyone that's 'projected' to be a star player, and think the only way we'll acquire any new franchise leaders is to draft players who had that pedigree from the start, typically only found in the top 5 of a draft.

It's funny how things turn out though. When Naslund and Bertuzzi left, neither of whom were top 5 picks to begin with, the Sedins and Kesler stepped up their game to another level and became those players, plus we managed to trade for with Luongo. It's not guaranteed to happen, but when you have a hole it tends to get filled. There are plenty of players who are 'franchise' level star players that were never expected to be as such, and there's always the chance that things fall into place and you manage to acquire someone elses. 1-3 of these sorts of players tend to get traded or move every season after all.

So for me it's a pointless thing to worry about not having a projected star or franchise level player 5 years from now, just sit back and take things as they come.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Johnson was drafted by Carolina, not LA. And yes, Schenn was drafted 5th overall, but was traded before their first cup.

He was a key piece in the trade to acquire Mike Richards. No 5th overall pick to draft Schenn, no trade for Mike Richards, probably no cup.

 

[Tim McCracken]

Yep that's pretty much the fallacy from the tankers side. They look at our prospects/players and don't see anyone that's 'projected' to be a star player, and think the only way we'll acquire any new franchise leaders is to draft players who had that pedigree from the start, typically only found in the top 5 of a draft.

It's funny how things turn out though. When Naslund and Bertuzzi left, neither of whom were top 5 picks to begin with, the Sedins and Kesler stepped up their game to another level and became those players, plus we managed to trade for with Luongo. It's not guaranteed to happen, but when you have a hole it tends to get filled. There are plenty of players who are 'franchise' level star players that were never expected to be as such, and there's always the chance that things fall into place and you manage to acquire someone elses. 1-3 of these sorts of players tend to get traded or move every season after all.

So for me it's a pointless thing to worry about not having a projected star or franchise level player 5 years from now, just sit back and take things as they come.

In fact, the 2010/11 SCF Team had:

D.Sedin drafted #2 o/a
H.Sedin #3 o/a
Luongo #4 o/a
Torres #5 o/a
Malhotra #7 o/a
Hodgson #10 o/a
Ballard #11 o/a
Hamhuis #12 o/a
Higgins #14 o/a
Kesler #23 o/a
Schneider #26 o/a
Tambellini #27 o/a
Raymond #51 o/a
Oreskovich #55 o/a
Lapierre #61 o/a
Edler #91 o/a
Rome #104 o/a
Ehrhoff #106 o/a
Bolduc #127 o/a
Samuelsson #145 o/a
Bieksa #151 o/a
Alberts #179 o/a
Salo #239 o/a
Glass #265 o/a
Hansen #287 o/a
Burrows undrafted
Tanev undrafted

All these guys played in the playoffs. Of the ones even drafted in the Top 15, only 3 of the 9 were drafted by the Canucks and of the 4 drafted in the Top 5, 2 were drafted by the Canucks and that was a by product of a trade.

Top 5 picks are great if you stink it out for a year or two but beyond that it sucks for the fans and team and could create a losing culture. The trick is to accumulate first rounders, period, and not trading them away while you're re-tooling.

This was more work than I care to do again so feel free to use it elsewhere as you see fit!

 

[me2]

The Oilers have been drafting highterribly for almost 20 years now, hasn't done much for them. Same with the Islanders.

fixed.

If Benning models his drafting after Edmonton....... I'm sure he's more competent than that.

 

[realist99]

In fact, the 2010/11 SCF Team had:

D.Sedin drafted #2 o/a
H.Sedin #3 o/a
Luongo #4 o/a
Torres #5 o/a
Malhotra #7 o/a
Hodgson #10 o/a
Ballard #11 o/a
Hamhuis #12 o/a
Higgins #14 o/a
Kesler #23 o/a
Schneider #26 o/a
Tambellini #27 o/a
Raymond #51 o/a
Oreskovich #55 o/a
Lapierre #61 o/a
Edler #91 o/a
Rome #104 o/a
Ehrhoff #106 o/a
Bolduc #127 o/a
Samuelsson #145 o/a
Bieksa #151 o/a
Alberts #179 o/a
Salo #239 o/a
Glass #265 o/a
Hansen #287 o/a
Burrows undrafted
Tanev undrafted

All these guys played in the playoffs. Of the ones even drafted in the Top 15, only 3 of the 9 were drafted by the Canucks and of the 4 drafted in the Top 5, 2 were drafted by the Canucks and that was a by product of a trade.

Top 5 picks are great if you stink it out for a year or two but beyond that it sucks for the fans and team and could create a losing culture. The trick is to accumulate first rounders, period, and not trading them away while you're re-tooling.

This was more work than I care to do again so feel free to use it elsewhere as you see fit!

This is the stuff I like to see. Facts ...not opinions.

Good drafting ....good player development ....good trading and good salary cap management >>> tanking for top 5 picks.

 

[Wilch]

The problem is "draft better" is far easier said than done. It's also not even really a strategy since it's what every single team in the NHL strives to do every year.

If a team is setting themselves up for a situation where they're going to be consistently drafting in the 10-20 range and expect to be able to replace elite players like the Sedins in any kind of reasonable time frame, they're going to have to pretty much outdraft the entire league. Given the Canucks' scouting prowess over the last decade or so I don't think it's out of line to be exceedingly skeptical that that's going to be possible.

Well put. Anyone who advocated a re-tool needs to read this.

 

[Shareefruck]

Well put. Anyone who advocated a re-tool needs to read this.

Yep.

Also, people are way too extremist about what either side entails. I doubt very many people are hoping for the team to completely crash and burn to aim for the #1/#2 overall picks year after year (which I agree would create a losing culture that you may not be able to come back from). However, most teams who end up grooming youth into a competitive environment surround them with veterans/proper insulation but allow for a transition year to develop rather than desperately pushing/forcing a competitive playoff team right at the start of the retool.

Probably doesn't work out cap-wise, but hypothetically, if the opening lineup looks like this:

Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Burrows - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen
Dorsett - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Tanev
Edler - Ehrhoff
Stanton - Bieksa

Miller
Lack

I think that's a mistake that's destructive to this team's future, personally

I would much rather allow the growing pains of a team like this:

Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Vrbata/Burrows/Vey - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Hansen/Burrows
Dorsett - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Tanev
Edler - Corrado
Stanton - Bieksa

Lack
Middle-tier Veteran Goalie (low end starter type or high end backup type)

Make sure the young guys are properly insulated with good surrounding players, let the system/core develop, and results-wise, let the chips fall where they land, hopefully amounting to something that resembles a 5-10 pick again but doesn't get blown out every game. Certainly there's not enough there to expect playoffs, but there's enough there that a good coach would be able to create an environment that is not a complete trainwreck like last year (if we have a year similar to what Calgary was last year, that's a great transition year that bodes well for the future in more ways in than one, IMO).

It's not tanking or cheating or finding a loop-hole in the system, it's taking things in stride, and keeping the big picture in mind rather than running around like a chicken with its head cut off, IMO.

 

[Dezmoto]

fixed.

If Benning models his drafting after Edmonton....... I'm sure he's more competent than that.

Edmonton has consistently drafted good players, they just keep drafting the the same type of player, which is why their team is so messed up.

 

[LiquidSnake]

The probability is rather high you will alienate your fan base, demoralize your players, and become the laughing stock of the league? . I'd rather be competitive and draft/trade well. Im not sure why people think drafting high will fix all your problems. Bet the same people who are pro tank mcdavid were the same ones mocking the oilers a few years ago for being a joke of an organization and having lottery parties...now you're just looking like hypocrites.

45 years of piss poor drafting and you want to rely on our drafting later vs no brainers? No thanks.

Drafting high doesn't fix your problem but the Canucks almost never draft high and they're devoid of top end talent. It's no coincidence that we're leaning on the 2 guys we selected #2 & #3 in the '99 draft to save this team right now.

If the Canucks pick 1st overall 3 years in a row then I'd agree they deserve to be the joke. Right now the joke is still the Canucks. With them thinking they're good enough to compete.

 

[Wilch]

Edmonton has consistently drafted good players, they just keep drafting the the same type of player, which is why their team is so messed up.

In the last ten years, the only serviceable player to come out of the 2nd round and beyond for Edmonton was Petry.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr00005632.html

Their amateur scouting is beyond horrible.

 

[LiquidSnake]

Johnson was drafted by Carolina, not LA. And yes, Schenn was drafted 5th overall, but was traded before their first cup.

They used their 5th overall pick to get a guy who was a major factor in their cup.

They then used Gleason (1st rounder, 23rd overall) to trade for JJ

Jack Johnson (3rd overall) was traded for Carter.

So a former 5th and 3rd overall for 2 players that helped them win a cup