Tank or re-tool on the fly?

[Canuckz]

No Tank, I want to watch the team I've followed for decades compete as hard as they can with what they've got. There is no guarantee they would get MacDavid, so it could be all for not.

 

[Bure All Day]

The only thing with that is that it's pretty hard to be absolutely terrible one year and then the next year go back to being a playoff team.

I mean, sometimes that happens to teams - like Colorado - but it's very difficult to plan that out. Colorado was not expecting to finish at the bottom of the standings for as long as they.

And if we want to ensure that we pick very high in the draft we pretty much have to trade away all our great players. Like the Sedins. But then once we do that... who knows if we'll be able to become a good team again in the next 5-10 years. So basically, it actually COULD be an Oilers-style "rebuild"... that lasts for 20 years. And obviously no one wants that.


On the other hand, the problem with trying to patch up a hole that is too big to patch up is that it leaks forever. Maybe only a little bit, but do you want to be "Ok" forever, or tear the roof down and rebuild the damn thing?


Very tough decisions for Mr. Benning. (or maybe the decision is easy for him to make, but making the right decision will be difficult).

Sure we're not going to be the worst team in the league next year, but if we can finish around where we did last year, possibly a bit lower, it could help us get a really good pick, and by then many of our prospects will be able to play in the NHL and our team should be pretty good. THEN we can go to FA and add some vets to fill out our lineup, and hopefully be somewhat in contention again.

 

[Wilch]

I posted my thoughts on this matter a while back, and I made it clear the only way an organization becomes a cup contender is to generate value through drafting on top of player development or multiple successful trades or lucky signings.

The latter two depends entirely on luck and pro scouting, which has been average for this organization.

The former requires a good system in place (ours is OK, nothing ground breaking) and great amateur scouting (has been **** for most of the last decade aside from 2004 and 2013).

Given that neither of these change due to the fact that even a lawyer like Gillis couldn't even get rid of the old boys club in this organization, it's even more unlikely to change with Linden at the helm.

The only way we're getting any kind of value is through high first round selections and multiple picks throughout the first and second rounds.

Right now, our organization deperately lacks high end blue chippers. I love Horvat, Virtanen and Shinkaruk. I'm not sure about anyone else stepping up to the plate and becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 defender, but these three kids aren't quite enough. We'll need either more high picks or multiple mid teens to 2nd round picks to pan out and become high impact players to contend again. Getting a lottery top 5 pick is the short cut there. Getting someone like McDavid would mean we only need maybe 2 more pieces (high quality PMD and scoring winger) and to become a serious contender again.

 

[Bure All Day]

No Tank, I want to watch the team I've followed for decades compete as hard as they can with what they've got. There is no guarantee they would get MacDavid, so it could be all for not.

There's still a lot of really good players at the top of the draft... We don't have to tank just for McDavid, we just need one of the top players.

The difference between the 5th pick and the 13th pick might be huge, it might small, but why not take the chance and try and get a sick player.

 

[nameless1]

I'm usually a grammar/spelling nazi but I really like the way you write. Like a train of thought...

I appreciate a kindred spirit.
Those come few and far between.

 

[Bure All Day]

I posted my thoughts on this matter a while back, and I made it clear the only way an organization becomes a cup contender is to generate value through drafting on top of player development or multiple successful trades or lucky signings.

The latter two depends entirely on luck and pro scouting, which has been average for this organization.

The former requires a good system in place (ours is OK, nothing ground breaking) and great amateur scouting (has been **** for most of the last decade aside from 2004 and 2013).

Given that neither of these change due to the fact that even a lawyer like Gillis couldn't even get rid of the old boys club in this organization, it's even more unlikely to change with Linden at the helm.

The only way we're getting any kind of value is through high first round selections and multiple picks throughout the first and second rounds.

Right now, our organization deperately lacks high end blue chippers. I love Horvat, Virtanen and Shinkaruk. I'm not sure about anyone else stepping up to the plate and becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 defender, but these three kids aren't quite enough. We'll need either more high picks or multiple mid teens to 2nd round picks to pan out and become high impact players to contend again. Getting a lottery top 5 pick is the short cut there. Getting someone like McDavid would mean we only need maybe 2 more pieces (high quality PMD and scoring winger) and to become a serious contender again.

How I feel about this post:

 

[iFan]

We shouldn't go all Buffalo or Oilers on this but we should stay away from signing dumb UFAs tomorrow and maybe look at using next year as a developing year with some of the younger players in Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen, Gaunce and let guys like Kassian take the next step up. We should suck next year get a high pick but use the year to develop our young players and make them compete hard and earn their spot nightly.

Sedin Sedin Kassian
Jensen Bonino Burrows
Higgins Horvat Vey
Matthias Richardson Dorsett

Let Gaunce and Shinkaruk develop a bit in the AHL and let them be call ups when injuries hit. Focus on using the vets to develop the younger players and show them the ropes.

Hamhuis Bieksa
Edler Tanev
Sbisa Corrado

Lack
Markstrom

I'd prefer to stay away from signing a goalie and letting Lack and Markstrom show us what we have and make the decision next year on the goalies after we have a full season to see how they handle it. I don't like the idea of Miller on a contract longer than 2 years. We should keep our cap space open and use it when we really need to use it, I don't see a big need to use it this year and we shouldn't do anything stupid with it.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

I posted my thoughts on this matter a while back, and I made it clear the only way an organization becomes a cup contender is to generate value through drafting on top of player development or multiple successful trades or lucky signings.

The latter two depends entirely on luck and pro scouting, which has been average for this organization.

The former requires a good system in place (ours is OK, nothing ground breaking) and great amateur scouting (has been **** for most of the last decade aside from 2004 and 2013).

Given that neither of these change due to the fact that even a lawyer like Gillis couldn't even get rid of the old boys club in this organization, it's even more unlikely to change with Linden at the helm.

The only way we're getting any kind of value is through high first round selections and multiple picks throughout the first and second rounds.

Right now, our organization deperately lacks high end blue chippers. I love Horvat, Virtanen and Shinkaruk. I'm not sure about anyone else stepping up to the plate and becoming a top 6 forward or top 4 defender, but these three kids aren't quite enough. We'll need either more high picks or multiple mid teens to 2nd round picks to pan out and become high impact players to contend again. Getting a lottery top 5 pick is the short cut there. Getting someone like McDavid would mean we only need maybe 2 more pieces (high quality PMD and scoring winger) and to become a serious contender again.

Pretty much my take. Every team's path to the Stanley Cup has been a bit different, but somehow lucking out (or picking high) to nab elite talent, and then shrewd trades/signings/late picks has led to the alignment of the stars which has never happened to us.

No doubt that our two real runs at the Stanley Cup were on the backs of elite talent like Bure, Linden and the Sedins. The latter three were top 3 picks and Bure likely would have been there if not for his contested status.

 

[me2]

Pretty sure we can do both at the same time.

 

[opendoor]

Pretty sure we can do both at the same time.

Or at least one after the other. Most retools on the fly with a core as old as the Canucks usually result in unintentional tanking anyway.

 

[Takumi3000]

Williams was the MVP for them in their last cup win

Stanley cup teams usually have a great supporting cast as well. You need both franchise and supporting players to win.

For ex. Stamkos is a franchise player but his team does not have enough supporting pieces to win a cup yet.

Winning 2 Cups as a #1 Dmen at his age is why Doughty is franchise. I am arguing based on these specific requirements. If he was neither #1 on the depth chart or this young, then he would not be a franchise player regardless of how many Cups he has won.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

I think a team's level of success is ultimately dependent on how good their core few players are, and that depends on what stage of their careers they're in.

Here we have the Sedins, Hamhuis, Bieksa, Edler and Lack. Not bad, middle of the pack at best (now), but certainly not good enough to go 4 rounds in the grueling Stanley Cup playoffs.

I think the depth is important (obviously) but this is what it boils down to. Until we have a core that is top 10 again (top 5 to contend consistently), winning the Cup just isn't going to happen.

 

[Dr Awesome]

I don't want to tank, but I also don't want this team to be so so which is direction it's going.

 

[dps]

I just want the team to be awful on paper for ONE more year. This upcoming one.

Don't sign UFAs unless they'll help out the young guys (like an Iginla would).

Give Horvat, Corrado, Jensen, and Vey full time roles, but properly insultate them with players like Hamhuis, Higgins/Burrows/Hansen, The Sedins, a veteran backup, and Bonino.

Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Vey - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Burrows/Hansen
Dorsette - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Corrado/Tanev
Edler - Tanev/Corrado
Stanton - Bieksa

Lack
Veteran backup

ONE year in a deep draft is all we need to get this prospect pool really refined-- You don't need to be McDavid bad, just don't needlessly add guys like Cammalleri to this group. When Horvat, Gaunce, Jensen, Vey, and Corrado are LEGITIMATE contributors and the second wave start making the team, then start signing UFAs and build the team up to compete, maybe get rid of a Bieksa or Edler, a Burrows or Hansen as they become redundant, and don't start trading away picks to compete just yet. When these guys actually become core players, then start to make trades to become a contender.

Hopefully ending up with something built around

Virtanen - 2015 1st rounder - Kassian
XX - Horvat - XX
McCann - Gaunce - Matthias
XX - XX - XX

Hutton - Tanev
Hamhuis? - Corrado
Stanton - XX

Veteran version of Lack
Demko

(I left XXs to account for some guys potentially not making the team-- The guys I left in are the guys I'm confident in)

We're doomed if we don't have the patience to accept a transition year for at least one season.

This is my line of thinking as well.

In fact I have a theory as to why that's exactly what Benning is attempting to do this season. It won't be a 'tank', but an injection of youth and rookies for a calculated risk to get a top ten pick in a very deep draft next year. The risk of course being the inexperience of the younger players. It's almost certain to net us a few more top 10s in the near future in my mind. This method will probably drag out until the sedins current contract ends, with potential for some up years, as well as down years like the current.

The reason I think this is the case is:

1) Trading away some vets like kesler and garrison for inexperienced/younger players like bonino, sbisa, and vey. I'm sure we will also see a new rookie or two as well. Maybe even a few more 'vets' like burrows traded at the deadline after his value rises a bit (hopefully) for picks in 2015.

Adding youth/rookies into the roster not only excites the fan base, but also makes a bottom 10 season a bit more palatable for season ticket holders.

2) I don't think the cap space we have will be used on any big ticket Ufas, but to keep costs down for aquaman through this tough time. A guy or two may be signed but it won't be any of the expensive guys. This also makes it appear that management is attempting to live up to their word of making the playoffs for those that don't condone a tank/rebuild.

I also think that truly is benning/linden's goal, it'll just be a goal for a younger/less experienced roster, which is a big challenge. A challenge to keep the guys in a competitive mind state, gives them something to strive for, and keeps the winning mentality in the locker room.

It remains to be seen if this is indeed what's happening, just a thought.

 

[Chubros]

Or at least one after the other. Most retools on the fly with a core as old as the Canucks usually result in unintentional tanking anyway.

There is no such thing as unintentional tanking. Tanking implies intent. What you're referring to is good old fashioned sucking.

 

[Alpha]

San Jose should retool.

We should tank.

 

[Blue Suede Shoes]

Sure we're not going to be the worst team in the league next year, but if we can finish around where we did last year, possibly a bit lower, it could help us get a really good pick, and by then many of our prospects will be able to play in the NHL and our team should be pretty good. THEN we can go to FA and add some vets to fill out our lineup, and hopefully be somewhat in contention again.

We finished 6th from the bottom last year. But let's be honest, everything that could have gone wrong for us did. Long-term injuries to our best players, everyone having an off-year except Higgins, and a terrible coach running a pretty poor system. What are the chances we can repeat all of that again? It seems very unlikely. Not only that, but the entire team had unsustainably low shooting percentages sarcasm.

But let's say all those things go wrong again (or go right, depending on your goal). Let's say we match last year's disaster and draft 6th. Now I know the 2015 draft is supposed to be amazing, because there is a potential Crosby. And not only that, but there are a couple more potential generational talents after! Or at least, potential franchise players!

That still leaves us at pick #6. Historically, that is not a sure-fire star player. I know Oliver Ekman-Larsson was drafted there. But other then him, who are the recent guys taken at 6th overall?

Mika Zibanejad
Brett Connolly
Nikita Filatov
Sam Gagner
Derick Brassard
Gilbert Brule
Al Montoya
Milan Michalek

And that's going back to 2003 - the deepest draft of the century, possibly the deepest draft of all-time.


Sure we have a better chance at a star player around that area then, say, around 12th overall. But I don't think the chances are very good at all.

And more importantly, I don't know if we can expect to do as poorly as we did last year. It was an injury-plagued, karma-****ed year for the franchise.

And, I will be the first to admit that we ARE a worse team then last year, on paper. We lost Kesler and Garrison. However, that is on paper. In actuality, we have a new coach, and at least some guys should have bounce-back years. I don't think we will do as poorly. Or maybe we could do as poorly, but I don't think we can EXPECT to. That could be a dangerous gamble.

I think if we want to draft a star player, we have to really tear the team down. Trade the Sedins, trade Hamhuis and Bieksa. Then we are ready to compete with Buffalo for a bottom-5 pick. (Although we would still not even come close to Buffalo's level of suck). I think THAT is what it would take to get to the bottom of the league.

 

[SillyRabbit]

San Jose should retool.

We should tank.

This.

It's actually shocking how delusional people are about this team.

I understand, you want to be positive, and you love the team. I get it, but realistically speaking you can't honestly think this team has a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup can you? We can't even compete for a playoff spot in the stacked West, let alone try to win a Cup against teams like the Blues, Kings, Blackhawks, Sharks, Ducks, etc.

Either way, it's not up to us, it's up to Benning, who is ultimately controlled by management.

They want to compete, so we're pretty much destined to become the next Calgary Flames.

Again, i'm not wishing failure on the Canucks, i'm just realistically predicting what is most likely to happen. If this realistic prediction is correct, anyone smart would want the Canucks to tank and rebuild now, rather than try to compete, fail, and then end up taking and rebuilding in a few years, basically guaranteeing 5-7 years of not being a contender.

 

[Wilch]

I think if we want to draft a star player, we have to really tear the team down. Trade the Sedins, trade Hamhuis and Bieksa. Then we are ready to compete with Buffalo for a bottom-5 pick. (Although we would still not even come close to Buffalo's level of suck). I think THAT is what it would take to get to the bottom of the league.

If we want to pick in the top 5, we just need to not sign anyone on July 1st.

Ride Lack for 65 games OR play Markstrom despite him sucking.

Have the Sedins and Hamhuis take extended breaks even with the smallest injuries. They miss a combined 20-30 games, we're guaranteed a top 3 pick.

Our roster without Henrik, Hamhuis and UFA additions:

Daniel-Bonino-Burrows
Higgins-Vey-Kassian
Hansen-Richardson-Matthias
Sestito-Dorsett-AHLer

Stanton-Bieksa
Edler-Tanev
Sbisa-Corrado

This lineup looks marginally better than Buffalo and Calgary in terms of talent. We'd be good for a top 3 pick with this. Add in a few more injuries (inevitable) to our blueline? We might not actually outsuck Buffalo, but we'll have a shot at Eichel, if not McDavid.

 

[Jordalenko]

Mainly...
I did not agree with the Boston comparison.
Because they are two different situations.
I also think Boston completely lucked out...
And it can not be repeated.

To be clear...
I think there are merits to either a retool or a complete rebuild...
And I do not advocate one over the other.
If there are any time for a tear down...
This is it...
Since 2015 is supposed to be the strongest draft in years...
And I do not think all the scouts can be wrong.

A retool is also fine...
Because a successful team needs a mix of veterans and young players...
Or the team will be a bunch of lost sheeps...
Just like the Oilers.
However...
Benning should have gotten more futures...
In the form of high draft picks...
Or top prospects...
And not guys who are in their prime...
Or about to hit their prime.
By the time the top teams decline...
Or the Canucks is finally ready to compete...
In a couple of years...
Those guys he acquired will be at the tail-end of their prime at best...
And at worst...
Just in the midst of their decline.

That is my biggest issue with his moves...
Because I do not think a middle of the road method will work out that well.
Again...
I sincerely hope he is smarter than me...
And he gets the last laugh.
This is one matter I do not mind being completely wrong.

This sums up a lot of what I have tried to say but more eloquently. The old guys we sign as UFAs need to help the kids shine until they can do their thing without them. Not block their development and minimize their minutes. If we end up drafting 4 - 6 so be it. But let's not kid ourselves Buffalo, Florida, Edmonton, Calgary and NYI are a lock to be worse. Carolina, Ottawa might compete with them. We will be lucky to float down around Nashville, Winnipeg, Arizona and Toronto. 10th is about the best we could expect to draft if we have a bad year.

But if we can acquire another 1st and 2nd over the course of the season this draft will be an important step. 3 consecutive years with 2 first picks has to help.

 

[Bure All Day]

I just want the team to be awful on paper for ONE more year. This upcoming one.

Don't sign UFAs unless they'll help out the young guys (like an Iginla would).

Give Horvat, Corrado, Jensen, and Vey full time roles, but properly insultate them with players like Hamhuis, Higgins/Burrows/Hansen, The Sedins, a veteran backup, and Bonino.

Sedin - Sedin - Jensen
Vey - Bonino - Kassian
Higgins - Horvat - Burrows/Hansen
Dorsette - Matthias - Richardson

Hamhuis - Corrado/Tanev
Edler - Tanev/Corrado
Stanton - Bieksa

Lack
Veteran backup

ONE year in a deep draft is all we need to get this prospect pool really refined-- You don't need to be McDavid bad, just don't needlessly add guys like Cammalleri to this group. When Horvat, Gaunce, Jensen, Vey, and Corrado are LEGITIMATE contributors and the second wave start making the team, then start signing UFAs and build the team up to compete, maybe get rid of a Bieksa or Edler, a Burrows or Hansen as they become redundant, and don't start trading away picks to compete just yet. When these guys actually become core players, then start to make trades to become a contender.

Hopefully ending up with something built around

Virtanen - 2015 1st rounder - Kassian
XX - Horvat - XX
McCann - Gaunce - Matthias
XX - XX - XX

Hutton - Tanev
Hamhuis? - Corrado
Stanton - XX

Veteran version of Lack
Demko

(I left XXs to account for some guys potentially not making the team-- The guys I left in are the guys I'm confident in)

We're doomed if we don't have the patience to accept a transition year for at least one season.

This is just beautiful, as is basically my idea of thinking as well, except I am completely against signing and free agents, Iginla included. We have enough veterans that can show the young guys the ropes.

Only free agents I would be willing to go for would be young guys like MDZ who could either turn it around and be a good piece on our team for years to come, or blow up in our faces and give us an even better shot at the #1 pick

 

[Baby Pettersson]

I'm all fine and dandy with sacrificing one year to snag an elite player or two in the draft. We will need elite young players some day. Now is the best opportunity to do it.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Funny, last year I predicted the Canucks would have a miserable time making the playoffs and people dismissed it.

I am not for tanking and i'm not for trying to build a team in free-agency. What I would like is some astute short term deals tomorrow that can be flipped at a deadline (2015 or 16) should the team continue to be poor.

What I do NOT want is long-term deals with NTCs that are un-moveable. There's no player in free-agency right now I'd give a big deal to, none (in terms of term length).

That said you still have to experiment in the market and you still need a team... you can't just not try (though I guess Buffalo is doing that... but that is pathetic...).

As Benning said you have to train the kids to be winners and you can't do that by being surrounded by losers.

 

[Blue Suede Shoes]

Funny, last year I predicted the Canucks would have a miserable time making the playoffs and people dismissed it.

I am not for tanking and i'm not for trying to build a team in free-agency. What I would like is some astute short term deals tomorrow that can be flipped at a deadline (2015 or 16) should the team continue to be poor.

What I do NOT want is long-term deals with NTCs that are un-moveable. There's no player in free-agency right now I'd give a big deal to, none (in terms of term length).

That said you still have to experiment in the market and you still need a team... you can't just not try (though I guess Buffalo is doing that... but that is pathetic...).

As Benning said you have to train the kids to be winners and you can't do that by being surrounded by losers.

The bolded is another really important point. We need the kids to grow up in a winning environment. Not necessarily a team that wins all it's games, but a team that TRIES to win all it's games. Otherwise, you end up like Edmonton and the team accepts losing, and that mentality soaks into the kids and they become complacent.

That's one of the main reasons I would be happy with Iginla - he will fight to the death, no matter how much his old Flames teams may have sucked. That's the type of attitude we want guys like Kassian to observe and replicate. ... NOT the Oilers' attitude.

 

[absolute garbage]

This.

It's actually shocking how delusional people are about this team.

I understand, you want to be positive, and you love the team. I get it, but realistically speaking you can't honestly think this team has a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup can you? We can't even compete for a playoff spot in the stacked West, let alone try to win a Cup against teams like the Blues, Kings, Blackhawks, Sharks, Ducks, etc.

Again, i'm not wishing failure on the Canucks, i'm just realistically predicting what is most likely to happen. If this realistic prediction is correct, anyone smart would want the Canucks to tank and rebuild now, rather than try to compete, fail, and then end up taking and rebuilding in a few years, basically guaranteeing 5-7 years of not being a contender.

So you're saying that if you don't have a realistic chance of winning the Cup you should tank? That 25 or so teams in the league should go for 1st overall?

Yeah, it doesn't work like that. This team still has (had?) a good core, unlike the often mentioned Flames, so that kind of thinking is pointless. What they needed is to make a few good moves this summer and they would've jumped right back there, probably not as a favorite but as contender again.

If we go few days back, the Canucks still had solid defence and a better than average goaltending duo with a lot of potential guided by Melanson who has a great track record with those type of guys. What they needed is to tweak the defence a little bit, NOT trade away a guy who is outperforming his contract in a top 4 role for an NHL/AHL tweener.

On offence, the team simply even couldn't tank with the Sedins unless they suck like they did last year. I mean let's face it, the only reason why Canucks finished so low is because the Sedins regressed to 50p players for whatever reasons. And I don't believe that's going to repeat.

They absolutely needed to fill an organizational need with the Kesler trade but failed miserably at that. And I get that they were handcuffed with the NTC but still, you could've even sweetened the deal by adding a pick or something if Kesler wasn't enough to get some of Ducks' young promising forwards (or Vatanen).

This team didn't need much in order to compete next year and in the future. Just of the top of my head, had they filled a need with the Kesler trade and got Vatanen back, they could've identified teams in tough situations and traded a reluctant asset (Edler+, even Corrado+) for a winger (for example Eriksson from Boston, Kane from Winnipeg), or go with UFA route. It's just too bad the management ****ed it all up.