Why would it change? Blues still had Stastny, and ROR will take his place.
ROR is more than just a Stastny replacement IMO. The last 3 years, ROR averaged 21:44, 21:28, and 20:49 minutes per game. The last 3 years Stastny averaged 18:18, 18:41, 17:02 minutes per game. I would be surprised if ROR suddenly went from consistently averaging 21+ minutes per game to around 18.
For the record, Schenn's average TOI the last three years was 16:45, 17:48, 19:44.
How does going from 14 to 16 minutes per game of even-strength ice time explain an increase from 27 to 51 points? 14% increase in ice time means a 53% increase in productivity? Can you give me an example of that for another established player?
Well, for one thing, part of Schenn's fantastic year was his undeniable chemistry with Schwartz. Those two were electric, especially at even strength, and I don't mean to discount that impact.
However, I'm not just looking at even strength scoring. Looking at the raw totals, Schenn's scoring increased 27% from 55 to 70 and his ice time increased 11%. Some of that 27% increase in scoring was from Schwartz, but I think a significant part of it was also from an increase in TOI.
To put it another way, check out Schenn's P/60 stats from the last two seasons:
| p/60 | ESP/60 | aTOI |
2017-18 | 2.597 | 2.336 | 19:44 |
2016-17 | 2.345 | 1.460 | 17:48 |
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Two things stand out to me, the large (60%) increase in even strength P/60, and the fact that all situations P/60 only increased around 11%. That 11% increase (possibly from chemistry w/ Schwartz, easy usage, etc) was not the single reason that Schenn's scoring increasing 27%. Part of that increase in scoring, and I would argue a significant part, also came from the 11% increase in TOI.