Confirmed Trade: [STL/BUF] Ryan O'Reilly for 2019 1st, 2021 2nd, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, and Tage Thompson

[Dbrownss]

ROR is more than just a Stastny replacement IMO. The last 3 years, ROR averaged 21:44, 21:28, and 20:49 minutes per game. The last 3 years Stastny averaged 18:18, 18:41, 17:02 minutes per game. I would be surprised if ROR suddenly went from consistently averaging 21+ minutes per game to around 18.

For the record, Schenn's average TOI the last three years was 16:45, 17:48, 19:44.


Well, for one thing, part of Schenn's fantastic year was his undeniable chemistry with Schwartz. Those two were electric, especially at even strength, and I don't mean to discount that impact.

However, I'm not just looking at even strength scoring. Looking at the raw totals, Schenn's scoring increased 27% from 55 to 70 and his ice time increased 11%. Some of that 27% increase in scoring was from Schwartz, but I think a significant part of it was also from an increase in TOI.

To put it another way, check out Schenn's P/60 stats from the last two seasons:

	p/60	ESP/60	aTOI
2017-18	2.597	2.336	19:44
2016-17	2.345	1.460	17:48

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Two things stand out to me, the large (60%) increase in even strength P/60, and the fact that all situations P/60 only increased around 11%. That 11% increase (possibly from chemistry w/ Schwartz, easy usage, etc) was not the single reason that Schenn's scoring increasing 27%. Part of that increase in scoring, and I would argue a significant part, also came from the 11% increase in TOI.

I wasnt trying imply he was at Stastnys level but Yeo wont have to put all the defensive weight on Oriellys shoulders. I would bet more on even ice time for our top 2 centers depending on wingers.

 

[Mattilaus]

You can claim it's not true all you want but sabre fans have claimed that on this site and in fact in this o.o. go ahead do some research

Cool, you can find a nutter butter or two who says something stupid. Just because you take the rantings of a few crazies as gospel that doesn't mean the rest of us accept that as evidence. But whatever, you do you.

 

[TruBlu]

Quantity for quality trade. Spending "a lot" of assets doesn't make the trade fair, or even decent, for Buffalo. 5 years from now, it's entirely possible it turns out the Sabres literally traded ROR for nothing. The Blues will still have ROR.

Many of the people complaining that the Blues won the trade don't take into account what all was done in the trade. Two upgrade veteran roster players over what the Sabres currently have, a cost controlled first round prospect on an ELC locked up for several years, a first round pick, and a second round pick. Not to mention one of the big parts of that deal that keeps getting left out is the fact that the Sabres got to drop that 7.5 mil bonus. In a salary cap league that is huge. Simply falling back on ROR was the best individual player to change sides in the deal is not a fair way to truly debate who won and lost.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Many of the people complaining that the Blues won the trade don't take into account what all was done in the trade. Two upgrade veteran roster players over what the Sabres currently have, a cost controlled first round prospect on an ELC locked up for several years, a first round pick, and a second round pick. Not to mention one of the big parts of that deal that keeps getting left out is the fact that the Sabres got to drop that 7.5 mil bonus. In a salary cap league that is huge. Simply falling back on ROR was the best individual player to change sides in the deal is not a fair way to truly debate who won and lost.

Cap space is only as valuable as what you spend it on. We actually have less cap space now than before that deal. Why? Because that's how much the pair of 3rd/4th liners we took cost.

Thompson is an OK -- not great -- prospect. The pick, being lottery protected, is pretty much assured of also not netting us a great prospect. The 2nd isn't until 3 years from now.

Unless our amateur scouts seriously bail Botterill out, this is a bad trade for Buffalo.

 

[TK 421]

Many of the people complaining that the Blues won the trade don't take into account what all was done in the trade. Two upgrade veteran roster players over what the Sabres currently have, a cost controlled first round prospect on an ELC locked up for several years, a first round pick, and a second round pick. Not to mention one of the big parts of that deal that keeps getting left out is the fact that the Sabres got to drop that 7.5 mil bonus. In a salary cap league that is huge. Simply falling back on ROR was the best individual player to change sides in the deal is not a fair way to truly debate who won and lost.

The bottom line is 5 years of ROR should have gotten the Sabres at least one premium piece back and most don't consider a 1st that's likely to be late and Tage Thompson to be premium pieces. This was a bad deal for Buffalo, not sure why you keep insisting it wasn't.

 

[Colt55]

Cool, you can find a nutter butter or two who says something stupid. Just because you take the rantings of a few crazies as gospel that doesn't mean the rest of us accept that as evidence. But whatever, you do you.

You just stated it wasn't true no one said that then back track and say a few may have. So you are wrong then.... Just saying before you try to call some one out have some knowledge of the subject you are speaking.

 

[Dbrownss]

Many of the people complaining that the Blues won the trade don't take into account what all was done in the trade. Two upgrade veteran roster players over what the Sabres currently have, a cost controlled first round prospect on an ELC locked up for several years, a first round pick, and a second round pick. Not to mention one of the big parts of that deal that keeps getting left out is the fact that the Sabres got to drop that 7.5 mil bonus. In a salary cap league that is huge. Simply falling back on ROR was the best individual player to change sides in the deal is not a fair way to truly debate who won and lost.

Professional franchises dont care about that....as was exhibited by Tom Stillman.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

Professional franchises dont care about that....as was exhibited by Tom Stillman.

I also kind of doubt Pegula was really that worried. How much money does that dude have again?

 

[67Blues]

The bottom line is 5 years of ROR should have gotten the Sabres at least one premium piece back and most don't consider a 1st that's likely to be late and Tage Thompson to be premium pieces. This was a bad deal for Buffalo, not sure why you keep insisting it wasn't.

I don't think it was necessary a bad deal for Buffalo. You want a bad deal? Look at Oshie. Buffalo essentially received an entire 3rd line from the Blues with Sobie/Bergy/Tage with Tage having the possibility of 2nd line ceiling in the future. That 3rd line is a serious upgrade for them. Plus, they get to roll the dice on two picks. Both teams addressed their needs. Could Buffalo have gotten more? Possibly, but they did get quite a haul of usable pieces that have term, unlike what we got with Oshie. Ironically, the 3rd round pick we got from Washington was bundled up to take Tage Thompson in the first round. Amazing to think that after 3 years, the Blues have no direct roster pieces left from the Oshie trade.

 

[Dr Quincy]

So, BUF decided to trade ROR for bottom six depth? D'okay.

Well to be fair, 95% of the trades proposed here are for top 6 guys in exchange for bottom 6th depth.

 

[DRW204]

So, BUF decided to trade ROR for bottom six depth? D'okay.

I know right?.... A strong 200 ft player who played at a 64 pt pace the last 3 years, at one of the most coveted positions in the league that is signed to a fair contract during his prime years, and the saving grace to this trade is 3/4th line depth... really? You can acquire those guys in UFA, not to mention one of the guys has KHL risk.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Cap space is only as valuable as what you spend it on. We actually have less cap space now than before that deal. Why? Because that's how much the pair of 3rd/4th liners we took cost.

Thompson is an OK -- not great -- prospect. The pick, being lottery protected, is pretty much assured of also not netting us a great prospect. The 2nd isn't until 3 years from now.

Unless our amateur scouts seriously bail Botterill out, this is a bad trade for Buffalo.

Thompson is not just an OK prospect, Armstrong has always considered him as apart of the big 4 with Thomas, Kyrou, and Kostin.

 

[Dbrownss]

I also kind of doubt Pegula was really that worried. How much money does that dude have again?

All of it

 

[bleedblue1223]

Professional franchises dont care about that....as was exhibited by Tom Stillman.

It wasn't so much the amount, but the return on the amount. If an owners gives that much money in a signing bonus, they are probably going to want a return on that investment. You aren't going to give a guy a huge bonus and then trade him the next day, you are going to want that player to play for you since you already paid for the season.

 

[Dbrownss]

Thompson is not just an OK prospect, Armstrong has always considered him as apart of the big 4 with Thomas, Kyrou, and Kostin.

No one outside of the Blues organization has put him with Kyrou and Thomas. Those 2 seem to be in their own tier

 

[Dbrownss]

It wasn't so much the amount, but the return on the amount. If an owners gives that much money in a signing bonus, they are probably going to want a return on that investment. You aren't going to give a guy a huge bonus and then trade him the next day, you are going to want that player to play for you since you already paid for the season.

Agreed, just didnt want to get that deep as the person I quoted meant it as some relief for Buffalo when it wasn't. The actual money wasnt a big deal but if Buffalo paid it then traded him for the same package, they would have paid out over 15m(guess as I didnt look at Berglund and Soboktas real money) and that would be a big deal

 

[bleedblue1223]

No one outside of the Blues organization has put him with Kyrou and Thomas. Those 2 seem to be in their own tier

That's fine, but Thompson isn't just an OK prospect. At worst he's on Kostin's level. I'd agree there is a gap between Thomas/Kyrou and Kostin/Thompson, but that's the difference between great and good, not good and ok.

 

[Dbrownss]

That's fine, but Thompson isn't just an OK prospect. At worst he's on Kostin's level. I'd agree there is a gap between Thomas/Kyrou and Kostin/Thompson, but that's the difference between great and good, not good and ok.

May just be semantics, everyone has an opinion of what an (A) prospect is. An OK prospect to me is a middle 6 guy with reasonable expectations to be an NHLer. Thompson fits that

 

[tsujimoto74]

Thompson is not just an OK prospect, Armstrong has always considered him as apart of the big 4 with Thomas, Kyrou, and Kostin.

What does he project as? Elite scorer? No. Top liner? No. Second liner? Maybe. Middle 6? Now we've hit the sweet spot. I'd have him 6th in Buffalo's prospect pool behind Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Guhle, and Asplund. He'll probably be an NHL player. He probably won't be anything special, unless maybe he catches some chemistry with Eichel. He's an OK prospect.

 

[Gurglesons]

Cap space is only as valuable as what you spend it on. We actually have less cap space now than before that deal. Why? Because that's how much the pair of 3rd/4th liners we took cost.

Thompson is an OK -- not great -- prospect. The pick, being lottery protected, is pretty much assured of also not netting us a great prospect. The 2nd isn't until 3 years from now.

Unless our amateur scouts seriously bail Botterill out, this is a bad trade for Buffalo.

I mean, I think you could argue the Sabres did better than the Avs did when they moved a younger ROR.

 

[TK 421]

I don't think it was necessary a bad deal for Buffalo. You want a bad deal? Look at Oshie. Buffalo essentially received an entire 3rd line from the Blues with Sobie/Bergy/Tage with Tage having the possibility of 2nd line ceiling in the future. That 3rd line is a serious upgrade for them. Plus, they get to roll the dice on two picks. Both teams addressed their needs. Could Buffalo have gotten more? Possibly, but they did get quite a haul of usable pieces that have term, unlike what we got with Oshie. Ironically, the 3rd round pick we got from Washington was bundled up to take Tage Thompson in the first round. Amazing to think that after 3 years, the Blues have no direct roster pieces left from the Oshie trade.

No amount of spin makes this good for Buffalo. Especially when the cap going out was nearly equaled by Berglund and Sobotka going back the other way. Those are players that can be acquired for just money in FA...not for a prime aged center with term. This was a major coup by Armstrong and a big mismanagement of a prime asset by Botteril.

BTW Oshie didn't have 5 years of term and wingers don't hold nearly the value of prime aged centers so don't suggest to me that the Oshie deal was bad(it was) but the better player(ROR) at a much more coveted position wasn't.

Even if there was a mandate from Pegula we don't know about, Botteril at that point should have explained that the Sabres held all the leverage and could wait till the Blues folded. Lots more pressure on Doug to get a center than on Botteril to unload ROR. So either Pegula didn't listen to reason or Botteril is just simply not good at his job. Take your pick, but this deal was terrible for Buffalo.

 

[Cotton]

Thompson is not just an OK prospect, Armstrong has always considered him as apart of the big 4 with Thomas, Kyrou, and Kostin.

Your “big 4” look like three ok prospects and one good one though. And I don’t think Thompson is the good one.

 

[S E P H]

Your “big 4” look like three ok prospects and one good one though. And I don’t think Thompson is the good one.

You're making it quite clear that you've never seen Thompson play except 4th line minutes in the NHL.

 

[bleedblue1223]

What does he project as? Elite scorer? No. Top liner? No. Second liner? Maybe. Middle 6? Now we've hit the sweet spot. I'd have him 6th in Buffalo's prospect pool behind Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Nylander, Guhle, and Asplund. He'll probably be an NHL player. He probably won't be anything special, unless maybe he catches some chemistry with Eichel. He's an OK prospect.

And how many times have you actually seen him play?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Your “big 4” look like three ok prospects and one good one though. And I don’t think Thompson is the good one.

I'll take Bill and Doug Armstrong's opinion over yours, thanks though.