St. Louis and San Jose Watch (1st round picks)

[Howie Hodge]

Can someone explain ?

Won’t the outcome of the playoffs determine their draft position?

After the playoffs are over the draft order (minus lottery) determined by:

1. The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs the previous season (picks 1–15)
2. The teams that made the playoffs in the previous season but did not win either their division in the regular season or play in the Conference Finals (picks 16–23 up to 27)
3. The teams that won their divisions in the previous season but did not play in the Conference Finals (potentially picks 24–27)
4. The teams that lose in Conference Finals (picks 28 and 29)
5. The team that was the runner-up in the Stanley Cup Finals (pick 30)
6. The team that won the Stanley Cup in the previous season (pick 31)

 

[Djp]

So we want/need
-Columbus to win out (NYR and OTT);
-Vegas to win out (LA and AZ) ; and
-Vancouver to beat St. Louis (most important)

St. Louis can’t get two points and Columbus at least tie them.


Other scenarios...st Louis win the division they draft behind San Jose unless San Jose makes final and St. Louis doesn’t.

Another scenario has them drafting consecutively.

St. Louis can’t go behind San Jose without winning division or making conference finals and San Jose doesn’t.

 

[Djp]

31 Tampa
30 Calgary
29 Washington
28 Central winner
27 Boston
26-16 TBD
15 MTL/CBS
14 AZ/FLA
13FLA/MIN
10-12 MIN/CHI/PHL
7-9 EDM/Ana/van
4-6 BUF/DET/NYR
2-3 LA/NJ
1 Ottawa

 

[Icicle]

It really shouldn't surprise anyone. Botterill is an idiot. Look no further than the O'Reilly trade. Vet GM takes him to the cleaners. At least with the Montour trade we got a good piece back, but a smart vet GM maximized his return on a guy he deemed expendable. Botterill isn't smart enough to put his foot down and not agree to the condition and now we essentially moved down the 1st round for no reason.

ROFL. We got a stud RD and it might’ve cost us a few positions late in the 1st and the guy is dweeb? Woosh

 

[MagnumForce2]

I just look at this thread title and cringe now. I dont even like reading the posts.

 

[is the answer jesus]

ROFL. We got a stud RD and it might’ve cost us a few positions late in the 1st and the guy is dweeb? Woosh

I like the player we got, but I hate the condition that was put into the deal. Right now people think it's "just a few spots". That can change depending on what transpires in the playoffs. People cry about Murray overpaying for players and then defend Botterill when he lets other GM's strong arm him.

 

[Icicle]

I like the player we got, but I hate the condition that was put into the deal. Right now people think it's "just a few spots". That can change depending on what transpires in the playoffs. People cry about Murray overpaying for players and then defend Botterill when he lets other GM's strong arm him.

Here’s the conversation:

Murray: I want the Stl 1st
Botts: no man the trade values not worth it if stl picks 15. Only if it’s like 20-25 does it
Murray: ok how about you keep it if it’s under 20 but I get it if it’s not
Botts: sounds like a win win, let’s make a deal


If anything, these kinds of conditions show that Botterill is not going to risk losing potential 1OA picks like Ottawa did this year. THAT is a stupid GM. This was a case of two GMs gambling on the difference in where STL and SJ will end up at the end of the season, and Botterill coveting his ass if the worst case happened. For all you know, SJ will be a 1st round exit and STL wins it all. And according to what you’re thinking now, you would’ve been the idiot GM in that case. Here Botterill hedged his bet and got burned by a rookie goaltender going insanely hot.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Here’s the conversation:

Murray: I want the Stl 1st
Botts: no man the trade values not worth it if stl picks 15. Only if it’s like 20-25 does it
Murray: ok how about you keep it if it’s under 20 but I get it if it’s not
Botts: sounds like a win win, let’s make a deal


If anything, these kinds of conditions show that Botterill is not going to risk losing potential 1OA picks like Ottawa did this year. THAT is a stupid GM. This was a case of two GMs gambling on the difference in where STL and SJ will end up at the end of the season, and Botterill coveting his ass if the worst case happened. For all you know, SJ will be a 1st round exit and STL wins it all. And according to what you’re thinking now, you would’ve been the idiot GM in that case. Here Botterill hedged his bet and got burned by a rookie goaltender going insanely hot.

So the bar is set at Dorion. No wonder you are happy with Botterill. The conversation probably did go something similar to that which shows how clueless Botterill is. He should have told him: I'm including a good prospect in Guhle. You'll get the latest of our 1st round picks. Don't want to deal, fine. The Blues are playing great and I'm not taking that risk. So far he's taken a ton of garbage contracts in to facilitate deals and in this case agreed to a stupid condition in a trade. I'm not impressed. This was in no way an intelligent condition for Botterill to agree to. It just allowed Anaheim to take the better of the 2 1st round picks. If SJ goes out in the 1st round Anaheim takes the pick. We left the conditions essentially up to them. Who could have seen STL going on this tear and hitting that threshold? A lot of people. They had just won 11 straight games before the trade was made.

 

[Jame]

Here’s the conversation:

Murray: I want the Stl 1st
Botts: no man the trade values not worth it if stl picks 15. Only if it’s like 20-25 does it
Murray: ok how about you keep it if it’s under 20 but I get it if it’s not
Botts: sounds like a win win, let’s make a deal


If anything, these kinds of conditions show that Botterill is not going to risk losing potential 1OA picks like Ottawa did this year. THAT is a stupid GM. This was a case of two GMs gambling on the difference in where STL and SJ will end up at the end of the season, and Botterill coveting his ass if the worst case happened. For all you know, SJ will be a 1st round exit and STL wins it all. And according to what you’re thinking now, you would’ve been the idiot GM in that case. Here Botterill hedged his bet and got burned by a rookie goaltender going insanely hot.

That’s not two GMs gambling... that’s Botts gambling for no f***ing reason, and Murray sitting there accepting a late 1st that could be as high as #20 because Botts is a god awful negotiator.

 

[Icicle]

So the bar is set at Dorion. No wonder you are happy with Botterill. The conversation probably did go something similar to that which shows how clueless Botterill is. He should have told him: I'm including a good prospect in Guhle. You'll get the latest of our 1st round picks. Don't want to deal, fine. The Blues are playing great and I'm not taking that risk. So far he's taken a ton of garbage contracts in to facilitate deals and in this case agreed to a stupid condition in a trade. I'm not impressed. This was in no way an intelligent condition for Botterill to agree to. It just allowed Anaheim to take the better of the 2 1st round picks. If SJ goes out in the 1st round Anaheim takes the pick. We left the conditions essentially up to them. Who could have seen STL going on this tear and hitting that threshold? A lot of people. They had just won 11 straight games before the trade was made.

Every trade Murray made was declared an overpayment.

Only a vast minority consider this trade to be a minority and all of the swing value is on whether Guhle busts or not.

Yet here angry Buffalo fans think the trade value is predicated on the difference between pick 20 and 23. You know, something those trade charts value as much as a 6th round pick?

If you were really bothered by the deal, it’d be because Guhle is gone. But you’re not. You are exactly the victims of Botterills great negotiating skills by switching the conversation to fiddling over the slight difference in value of the late round pick instead of having the conversation focus on the real swing value: the trending to bust player that ANA seemed to be happy with.

This is sales 101 and you’ve all fallen for it. Meanwhile Murray mortgaged the family farm for sick cows and you’re forgetting his sin.

 

[Jame]

Every trade Murray made was declared an overpayment.

By god?

Only a vast minority consider this trade to be a minority and all of the swing value is on whether Guhle busts or not.

vast minority minority?

Yet here angry Buffalo fans think the trade value is predicated on the difference between pick 20 and 23. You know, something those trade charts value as much as a 6th round pick?

The point is that Botterill included a range of value from 20 to 30.... and left it up to the hockey gods as to which value he’d ultimately pay.

Now you can make a bad argument that there isn’t much difference between those two picks... which then would mean you accept an argument that Murray only paid a 2nd rounder for Lehner (because there’s no difference between #21 and #32)

If you were really bothered by the deal, it’d be because Guhle is gone. But you’re not. You are exactly the victims of Botterills great negotiating skills by switching the conversation to fiddling over the slight difference in value of the late round pick instead of having the conversation focus on the real swing value: the trending to bust player that ANA seemed to be happy with.

Botts has the negotiating skills of a hampster

This is sales 101 and you’ve all fallen for it.

This isn’t even sales 01

Meanwhile Murray mortgaged the family farm for sick cows and you’re forgetting his sin.

What is Eichel in this brilliant analogy?

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Every trade Murray made was declared an overpayment.

Only a vast minority consider this trade to be a minority and all of the swing value is on whether Guhle busts or not.

Yet here angry Buffalo fans think the trade value is predicated on the difference between pick 20 and 23. You know, something those trade charts value as much as a 6th round pick?

If you were really bothered by the deal, it’d be because Guhle is gone. But you’re not. You are exactly the victims of Botterills great negotiating skills by switching the conversation to fiddling over the slight difference in value of the late round pick instead of having the conversation focus on the real swing value: the trending to bust player that ANA seemed to be happy with.

This is sales 101 and you’ve all fallen for it. Meanwhile Murray mortgaged the family farm for sick cows and you’re forgetting his sin.

Don't bother with all this effort. The same people crying about the clause in this trade were the same crying about the condition on the 1st in the RoR trade...

"Botts is such an idiot, couldn't even get their 1st this year, now STL will pick top 10 this year, fix goaltending and we will get a pick in the late 20s next year"

Then Binnington overachieved and those same people miraculously "knew" the Blues would be good this year. It is a no win situation with them.

We haven't even SEEN who the main player is in the RoR return.Not just what that player develops into but we do not even have a NAME.

If anything we got lucky with that trade. Guhle is nothing special and will not be a top 4 D. This entire season with any future lineup I posted I had precluded Guhle in a hypothetical top 4. He is simply not a top prospect. The 1st is the main asset in the trade. Guhle is just the sweetener. As was Thompson with the RoR trade but you can't get that through to the elevator screamers who had to post something negative about the RoR trade every time Thompson did or didn't do something. Like Thompson was the only return (and not the #1,#2 and the 7.5 mil in cap space for half a decade) or that this year was the only year that mattered.

Brayden Schenn had a fluke career year right after being traded to STL, he surely repeated it this year right?

If anyone here would refuse the Montour trade over a 5 or 6 spot difference among picks in a draft where NUMEROUS 1sts have been dealt please let yourself be known. Whose to say there is even a difference in the 15-30 range this year? I love how people are angry over a few spots but weren't over trading 1sts in the Lehner and Kand deal. Montour was a better asset then anything in those 2 deals.

 

[Icicle]

Don't bother with all this effort. The same people crying about the clause in this trade were the same crying about the condition on the 1st in the RoR trade...

"Botts is such an idiot, couldn't even get their 1st this year, now STL will pick top 10 this year, fix goaltending and we will get a pick in the late 20s next year"

Then Binnington overachieved and those same people miraculously "knew" the Blues would be good this year. It is a no win situation with them.

We haven't even SEEN who the main player is in the RoR return.Not just what that player develops into but we do not even have a NAME.

If anything we got lucky with that trade. Guhle is nothing special and will not be a top 4 D. This entire season with any future lineup I posted I had precluded Guhle in a hypothetical top 4. He is simply not a top prospect. The 1st is the main asset in the trade. Guhle is just the sweetener. As was Thompson with the RoR trade but you can't get that through to the elevator screamers who had to post something negative about the RoR trade every time Thompson did or didn't do something. Like Thompson was the only return (and not the #1,#2 and the 7.5 mil in cap space for half a decade) or that this year was the only year that mattered.

Brayden Schenn had a fluke career year right after being traded to STL, he surely repeated it this year right?

If anyone here would refuse the Montour trade over a 5 or 6 spot difference among picks in a draft where NUMEROUS 1sts have been dealt please let yourself be known. Whose to say there is even a difference in the 15-30 range this year? I love how people are angry over a few spots but weren't over trading 1sts in the Lehner and Kand deal. Montour was a better asset then anything in those 2 deals.

Yeah I mistakenly engaged those who only respond with ‘wrong’

 

[MagnumForce2]

Why couldn’t it have been... you can have the higher of the 2 picks and we keep Guhle or the lower of the 2 picks with him. This is all irrelevant now but it was bad negotiating on his part. I liked the trade when it happened but it soured some when I saw there were conditions on which 1st it would be.

 

[Icicle]

Why couldn’t it have been... you can have the higher of the 2 picks and we keep Guhle or the lower of the 2 picks with him. This is all irrelevant now but it was bad negotiating on his part. I liked the trade when it happened but it soured some when I saw there were conditions on which 1st it would be.

The difference in value between a 22 and a 25 is a 3rd rounder. You know, those things Murray used to throw away for coaches and negotiating with thin air

 

[is the answer jesus]

The difference in value between a 22 and a 25 is a 3rd rounder. You know, those things Murray used to throw away for coaches and negotiating with thin air

The point you're completely missing is that we don't know what the picks are at this point. St Louis could get knocked out in the 1st round and SJ could win the cup. You'd then be dropping over 10 spots in the 1st. All because Botterill agreed to these idiotic terms.

 

[BananaSquad]

Brandon Montour people... this thread really needs to die quick.

 

[Icicle]

The point you're completely missing is that we don't know what the picks are at this point. St Louis could get knocked out in the 1st round and SJ could win the cup. You'd then be dropping over 10 spots in the 1st. All because Botterill agreed to these idiotic terms.

The terms were made so that the pick would be somewhere between 20-30

Without the terms, the pick could’ve easily been between 11 and 30 if Binnington never showed up.

It was a gamble regardless of how the trade went down. Botterill made sure with these terms we wouldn’t have lost a 11OA if it had came to be. Worst we lose is a 20 vs a 31.

 

[is the answer jesus]

The terms were made so that the pick would be somewhere between 20-30

Without the terms, the pick could’ve easily been between 11 and 30 if Binnington never showed up.

It was a gamble regardless of how the trade went down. Botterill made sure with these terms we wouldn’t have lost a 11OA if it had came to be. Worst we lose is a 20 vs a 31.

I understand you think (like Botterill) that the conditions of that trade were a smart move because we wouldn't lose a pick between 11-19. I think it was stupid to bet against a team finishing strong that was coming off an 11 game win streak. It was a gamble, and a very stupid one on Botterill's part. He failed to see that a red hot Blues team could push that pick to 20th overall or higher. At that point it should have been very apparent that pick was at the very least going to be in the very late teens and this wasn't a risk worth taking. Again, another GM duped our clueless GM. Get used to it, this isn't the 1st time and it won't be the last.

 

[Selanne00008]

correct me if i'm wrong but if st louis loses, which is obviously needed AND:
Jackets win or OT loss
Carolina wins
Jets win

We get the 19th pick??

 

[krt88nc]

correct me if i'm wrong but if st louis loses, which is obviously needed AND:
Jackets win or OT loss
Carolina wins
Jets win

We get the 19th pick??

Doesn’t the playoffs matter? If a team makes the conference finals they pick in the last 4.

 

[Icicle]

I understand you think (like Botterill) that the conditions of that trade were a smart move because we wouldn't lose a pick between 11-19. I think it was stupid to bet against a team finishing strong that was coming off an 11 game win streak. It was a gamble, and a very stupid one on Botterill's part. He failed to see that a red hot Blues team could push that pick to 20th overall or higher. At that point it should have been very apparent that pick was at the very least going to be in the very late teens and this wasn't a risk worth taking. Again, another GM duped our clueless GM. Get used to it, this isn't the 1st time and it won't be the last.

Do you make your money off of sports gambling? If you’re so good at this maybe you should!

Or did you lose it all after betting on the Sabres making the playoffs after their 10 game win streak?

 

[Royal Thunder]

I don't understand the argument against the conditions Botts agreed to. Any time you trade a first round pick you are giving up a huge range of value. Botterill ensured that we would keep the pick if it was higher than 20. What else should he have done?

"Hey Bob Murray, I'll give you the St Louis first but honestly man I can only do it if it's a really late first you know like 25-31. You cool with that?". I mean, the Ducks want value for their guy too, Montour is a good young player and you have to give to get. Murray could likely do better than a guaranteed late first, maybe he would have walked away. Yes it will be annoying if it ends up being pick #20 but if that's worst case scenario it's really not that disastrous to get a young mobile top 4 RD. I think Botterill saw how good the Blues have been in 2019 and realizes that there is a reasonable chance for them to make the WCF in which case the pick will be 27-31.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I don't understand the argument against the conditions Botts agreed to. Any time you trade a first round pick you are giving up a huge range of value. Botterill ensured that we would keep the pick if it was higher than 20. What else should he have done?

"Hey Bob Murray, I'll give you the St Louis first but honestly man I can only do it if it's a really late first you know like 25-31. You cool with that?". I mean, the Ducks want value for their guy too, Montour is a good young player and you have to give to get. Murray could likely do better than a guaranteed late first, maybe he would have walked away. Yes it will be annoying if it ends up being pick #20 but if that's worst case scenario it's really not that disastrous to get a young mobile top 4 RD. I think Botterill saw how good the Blues have been in 2019 and realizes that there is a reasonable chance for them to make the WCF in which case the pick will be 27-31.

Many posters were in the room during trade talks, and they positively know that Bob Murray was only talking to Botterill and no other deals on the table for Montour. They know exactly what Murray was/wasn't willing to take in the deal...

I don't like the condition on the 1st either, but the last several years we've seen a massive metric @#$%-ton of conditions put on draft picks in trades. Blame ALL GMs for this stuff, because they ALL do it.

Edit - I just hope the Blue Jackets pass StL tonight (and StL doesn't win two rds) so we can stop hearing the never-ending collapse of the world because Anaheim got a few spots better pick.

 

[MackAttack26]

correct me if i'm wrong but if st louis loses, which is obviously needed AND:
Jackets win or OT loss
Carolina wins
Jets win

We get the 19th pick??

Carolina and Jets both hold the tiebreaker over STL.

IF STL loses in regulation, all we need is CBJ to pick up 1 point in their game against Ottawa.

That way STL will finish 13th overall (which gives them the 19th overall pick).

However, it all depends on playoffs too then. If STL wins 2 rounds, which seems very possible, then it would be a moot point.