So what now?

[rumman]

The way the Leafs self-identify as a supremely talented group is a bit too conceited for my liking. It's not like the rest of the league consists of burner teams that have no talent.

Plenty of veteran teams have high end talent but are also combining it with other ingredients like Washington, Tampa and Vegas. Plenty of good young teams powered by good young cores like Colorado, Philadelphia, Carolina and even Vancouver are making progress as playoff teams, some leapfrogging past Toronto as the hot young team in the league. Plenty of talented cores like Edmonton and Winnipeg chronically underachieve.

Believing in your own talent means nothing when you don't back it up with all that blue collar Mike Babcock stuff.

like Lebrun mentioned yesterday, GM's around the league are not concerned with facing the Leafs come playoff time...........

 

[Durrr]

If we didn't acquire enough depth then why the hell are we paying a 3rd line a collective $10M?? Bruins are paying way less for their 3rd line which is drastically superior to the one we're running.

Nothing about our lineup adds up.

3rd line salary is going to be fluid. Leafs will probably move out one of the 3rd liners this year and replace with AHL promoted depth.

 

[Durrr]

Honestly, that's not even the issue.

The real issue is what it did for salary expecations, notably not having Matthews and Marner locked up to long term deals, and the lack of fortitude in dealing with Nylander's contract.

Those "big 3" (Nylander, Matthews, Marner) are overpaid by $3-5m. Put that towards a defenceman, shuffle some deck chairs on the 3rd line, and this team would be a lot better built for the playoffs than it currently is.

Sounds fantastic when you work out like that in text, but go out and sign a D man for 3-5 million and you're probably getting a below average defender (remember, Russel went for 5+ and Ceci is currently paid 4.5). Really doesn't do much for your team.

 

[Trapper]

JT may only have cost dollars but those dollars messed up the cap situation.
With that money they could have afforded a solid 2nd line centre and a 2 or 3 dman.

Whether they could have obtained them or not we don't know.

JT didn’t mess up the Cap situation.
22 million for 2 no. 1 centers should be fine on an 80+ million cap. Money dished out to wingers messed up the cap.

Look at Pittsburgh. What has been the constant on that team? Crosby/Malkin. How many wingers and others have changed?
You build a team around your 2 centers. Everything else is movable, adaptable.
Then you surround it with a team that can be top 10 D in the league. You should still have money for a high priced winger after.

it’s not cap feasible to build an out score your problems team. It is feasible to build a quality 2 way team with stud centers. Come playoff time there is nothing that Marner/Nylander have done that wingers on other top teams haven’t done at a lot less.

 

[Durrr]

ummmm wut??? kerfoot has career averaged JUST 26 est points per season and he was padding that by 16/17 PPs on a stacked #1 pp with Mckin and gang

Kadri literally scored 26 ES points his last season as a Leaf lol. It's pretty difficult to score more as a 3rd line center. You saved some cap room with Kerfoot and got a worse player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's not like the rest of the league consists of burner teams that have no talent.

You might want to tell that to those who seem to think we are owed a Stanley Cup within the 4 years since we were the worst team in the league, before our best players even hit their primes.

 

[Stephen]

You might want to tell that to those who seem to think we are owed a Stanley Cup within the 4 years since we were the worst team in the league, before our best players even hit their primes.

You're right. The road to contention is a long one. Washington won their cup 14 years after drafting Ovechkin, and Tampa's been trying to get back to the finals longer than before we even traded Phil Kessel. So it's not really the amount of time it takes, but it just comes down to how flexible they are to improve the club now with a flat cap and how they're willing to evolve the team understanding how contenders are built.

 

[DueDiligence]

You might want to tell that to those who seem to think we are owed a Stanley Cup within the 4 years since we were the worst team in the league, before our best players even hit their primes.

Once again :
Tavares was signed which changed the timeline.
Maybe they haven't hit their primes but they are surely paid like they have.
Because of these 2 facts Leaf management has decided this is the core to win.

But Leaf fans weren't expecting a cup they just wanted the team to win a playoff round or two.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tavares was signed which changed the timeline.

Not really. It was just a chance to add a great player without expending assets. It doesn't change the developmental stage of everybody else. It gave us a chance at cup contention during those earlier years, but it didn't mean that we were owed a Stanley Cup immediately. He's one player.

Maybe they haven't hit their primes but they are surely paid like they have.

No they aren't. They are paid like the amazing young players they showed they were prior to signing those contracts.

Because of these 2 facts Leaf management has decided this is the core to win.

Win =/= win immediately.

But Leaf fans weren't expecting a cup they just wanted the team to win a playoff round or two.

I want the team to win a playoff round as well, but while it's comforting and exciting as fans, it doesn't actually mean as much as people think in terms of future success.

 

[seanlinden]

Sounds fantastic when you work out like that in text, but go out and sign a D man for 3-5 million and you're probably getting a below average defender (remember, Russel went for 5+ and Ceci is currently paid 4.5). Really doesn't do much for your team.

Yes, if you go out and spend $4m in free agency, you don't get much...

But, what if that defenceman replaces Cody Ceci this past year? That's an $8.5m defenceman. If he replaces a Travis Dermott, it's probably a $6m guy.

When looking at cap space freed up, it's not just what you can get with the dollars you free up, it's who it allows you to upgrade.

 

[showtime8]

You can do this without dealing any of the top 4 guys, even Nylander whom the media is beating their war drums again on. But if you aren't going to do that, you will have to make more major changes to the rest of the squad to support that core. The Leafs have to get a lot better at winning the close games they're going to encounter in the playoffs, and holding the leads they do manage to earn. Accepting that their high powered guys aren't going to score all over the place and wear down playoff calibre defences, they need to change the parts of the team they're willing to change -- the goaltending(we're assuming), bottom 6 and least half the defence -- to compensate.

first, Freddy has to go. he shouldn't be hard to get rid of with 1 year left. Sign Lehner. or make a deal with somebody. but we can't go on with a player in that important of a position who can't do the job in important games. If you keep him, you are running the very real risk that you could do a ton of shit right with the rest of the team, and it all goes down the drain with one Andersen softie. That cannot happen.

On defence, there should be plenty of options. Petro may not be realistic, but they can certainly find two decent to solid top 4 dmen somewhere. Muzzin/Rielly with two legit replacements for Ceci and Barrie is certainly a solid enough top 4. Dermott and Holl, with Sandin/Liljegren challenging them for a spot, is similarly solid enough for pair 3 duty compared to what most teams have.

Right now our 3rd and 4th lines don't really serve a defined role. they don't score a lot, they don't hurt people, and they're not a strong defensive unit either. other than Clifford it's a bunch more of what we have on the top two lines for the most part. small pass first offensive types. Dubas needs to go back to the drawing board with the lower half of the team, making it much more complimentary to the guys we're committed to most capwise.

So next you replace your neither-fish-nor-fowl 3rd line(~$10m), doable with any of the 3 of Kappy/Kerf/AJ because they're on decent contracts with a decent skill level and could be a good fit on a different team. This is your major opportunity to inject some defensive ability and discipline that we lack in the forward group. Robertson is one solid candidate. while small, he will get stronger, is a natural goalscorer, and plays with the type of jam and effort we need. he also looks like a guy we can mold into a good defensive player...unlike several other guys, the will to do so appears to be there with this kid. But this line needs to do much more for us than it has been in an overall sense.

next is the fourth line. I think at this point it's obvious Gauthier can't help at this level, and honestly if Keefe won't play him he's done here. so we are once again lacking a capable 4th line centre/effective 4th line. someone with speed and defensive ability to check and control the middle of the ice should be gettable on the free agent market or in a non-major trade. or we try Brooks. Spezza wasn't bad, but I think some younger quicker legs will serve us better. Clifford was ok, but he doesn't make enough of a difference on the 4th line that I would give up a 2nd to keep him. Engvall to me really tailed off in the NHL after a promising start. He'll be fighting for his life for a roster spot this winter, methinks.

I'm going to agree and disagree with a couple things you've said here.

First, I think the criticism of Andersen is not warranted. Yes, everyone is going to point out that he can't win the big games or whatnot, but Lehner has recently played for an Islanders team that gives up nothing and while he only played in 3 games with Vegas, he played in a great system there as well. So you're asking Lehner and Campbell to carry the workload for a flawed defensive team. I can't see that going well. If you solidify your defense and not give up the chances that the Leafs do, Andersen's numbers look a lot better.

I would agree that it's probably better to have your defense balanced throughout and I agree that you could find two guys through free agency or trade that can fill that role at a reasonable price. The problem is, I'm not sure which way the Leafs are going to go. If they sign Pietrangelo, then you're going to be forced to play the Marincin's of the world when one of your defensemen get injured. If you go for defense by committee, then you take less talent in hopes of trying to do better than they were this year. The third option is use in-house players and hope for the best that their growth has done enough. My opinion on this is, you need to get depth any chance you get. I don't believe the Leafs management will have the grace period to allow Liljegren to jump in the line-up. It doesn't make sense at this point. So using the in-house players, is out. Unless you're getting a top pairing defenseman, you're not trading Nylander. Dubas gave the public endorsement for Marner today. And at that point, you're not getting Pietrangelo for what would be remaining in the cap. So the only option in my mind is to find defensemen through free agency that can play defined roles and do it by committee. Why not bring in a Justin Schultz, who in a pinch could play some PK and 2nd Power Play. He's coming off a year where he wasn't amazing, but could probably put him on the 3rd pairing at a decent price. Even Trevor van Riemsdyk would be a guy that could use a 1 year deal and be depth #6-7 dman.

I agree with the 4th line comments. Although I'm not sure that Engvall would be fighting for playing time. I think you see that with guys playing in their first full year in the league that they plateau around the Christmas mark and go M.I.A. for a while. I think the same thing happened with Holl at the end of last season and into this season. I really hope they find a 4th line centre that you can put out to kill penalties. I know they like Hyman out there doing that, but it would be a bit easier with a true centreman. A guy like Luke Glendening from Detroit, where they're looking to rebuild and the Leafs could use a smaller contract for one year. Or Derek Grant in free agency.

Long-story short:
- Keep Freddy. Hard to find goalies that can play 60+ games
- Defense by committee.
- 4th line with focus on centre

 

[ItsFineImFine]

I think that if this team was owned by a single owner (excluding the ones that don't care about hockey and own multiple teams and stuff), Shanahan and Dubas might have been gone. Being owned by a corporation maybes gives them more room and whatnot and they're really lucky tbh. But I don't think they've acknowledged that there's a problem with the team make-up.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lehner has recently played for an Islanders team that gives up nothing and while he only played in 3 games with Vegas, he played in a great system there as well.

Islanders and Vegas were both 9th in the league defensively during the seasons that Lehner played games for them, but Lehner himself was really really good, even considering the defensive results. He was also still impressive on Chicago, who was a tire fire defensively this year. Not saying that move should or shouldn't be made, but he played better than Andersen this year on a much worse team defensively.

 

[showtime8]

Islanders and Vegas were both 9th in the league defensively during the seasons that Lehner played games for them, but Lehner himself was really really good, even considering the defensive results. He was also still impressive on Chicago, who was a tire fire defensively this year. Not saying that move should or shouldn't be made, but he played better than Andersen this year on a much worse team defensively.

That's fair.

What kind of contract would you feel comfortable giving Lehner vs. what he could get on the open market. And the same goes for Andersen. Freddy is two years older.

 

[Muckngrinder]

I think it’s evident that this “top-heavy” roster construction and the soft, “elite-skilled” brand of hockey doesn’t translate to success.

Given the cap situation, a big move is required to address the issues with the blue line. Nylander needs to go.

Unfortunately, I think Dubas is married to the big 4 and doesn’t have the jam to make a move.

We also face the potential of falling back into the dark era of goaltending when Freddy’s deal is up. (Don’t forget we couldn’t afford an NHL caliber back up goalie this year)

if serious restructuring isn’t done this offseason our window may close just as fast as it opened.

 

[uncleben]

"We have a little bit of space & we got restricted free agents only to sign back"

Emphasis my own, but if I'm reading into that correctly sounds like Barrie, Ceci, Clifford are pretty much confirmed gone.
Surprise, surprise... Clifford of course being the only one people around here really wanted back.
Hopefully that's just a general statement that doesn't rule out Spezza too though..!


(Other UFAs are all AHLers: Gaudet, Gravel, Kaskisuo, Lorito, Salomaki, Wilson. If we don't re-sign any, expect to see a couple minor league deals in the off-season.)

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

"We have a little bit of space & we got restricted free agents only to sign back"

Emphasis my own, but if I'm reading into that correctly sounds like Barrie, Ceci, Clifford are pretty much confirmed gone.
Surprise, surprise... Clifford of course being the only one people around here really wanted back.
Hopefully that's just a general statement that doesn't rule out Spezza too though..!


(Other UFAs are all AHLers: Gaudet, Gravel, Kaskisuo, Lorito, Salomaki, Wilson. If we don't re-sign any, expect to see a couple minor league deals in the off-season.)

That quote just sounds really stupid. If you have a little bit of cap space and more players to sign, you are right up against the cap

 

[uncleben]

That quote just sounds really stupid. If you have a little bit of cap space and more players to sign, you are right up against the cap

Not really. What he was saying, we've got space and the guys we're going to sign are smaller contracts, so they won't use up all that space.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Not really. What he was saying, we've got space and the guys we're going to sign are smaller contracts, so they won't use up all that space.

If they sign Mikheyev for 2 million and Dermott for 1.5 million, they're 40 thousand under the cap if they carry no extra players. I really can't see how they aren't right up against it unless they make some trades

 

[leafster7]

Everything is such a disheartening mood now. I really don't know what to think about now how things should go for the Leafs.

 

[meefer]

Broken record time: just get a decent partner for Rielly, please.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What kind of contract would you feel comfortable giving Lehner vs. what he could get on the open market. And the same goes for Andersen. Freddy is two years older.

I wouldn't feel very comfortable giving more money than we're spending now or significant term to either of them, but that's more about the risk inherent in goaltenders.

 

[Bomber0104]

I wouldn't feel very comfortable giving more money than we're spending now or significant term to either of them, but that's more about the risk inherent in goaltenders.

I agree.

Doesn't really matter at this point which goalie we roll with since people will just blame everything on whichever one, once the Leafs shit the bed again

 

[sparxx87]

Lehner has a history of mental health and substance abuse issues. I really don’t think putting him into the Toronto pressure cooker would be a smart move for either side.

 

[Big Muddy]

The NHL playoffs consist of 16 teams. If you’re not one of the 16 you’re not in the playoffs.

COVID shutdown changed the format for the final stretch of season. They didn’t have time for everyone to finish their schedule so they put bubble teams in play-in series’ to decide who makes the 16 team NHL playoffs. The Leafs lost their play-in so they didn’t make the playoffs. It’s quite simple.

Round 1 of the playoffs started yesterday with Tampa and Columbus.

Ya, TSN sure seems to think that. This is what they said in describing the game between St. Louis & Vancouver last night.

"The Canucks were making their first playoff appearance since 2015, having defeated the Minnesota Wild in the qualifying round."

Bo Horvat scores twice as Vancouver Canucks beat St. Louis Blues in first round series opener - TSN.ca