So what now?

[Caesium]

What now? Now we watch an even worse Leafs team fail to make the playoffs next season. The only question is whether Dubas is let go prior to the trade deadline or not.

 

[Cleatus]

Not a full on rebuild, but significant retooling and culture change is definitely needed.

For starters, I'd be looking to trade both Marner and Nylander this off-season, even if it means the Leafs getting worse and missing the playoffs next season (I.E. short-term pain for long-term gain).

 

[Dekes For Days]

How are the Rangers the worst defensive team in the league??? The Rangers finished 23rd with a 3.14 GAA. In comparison the Leafs were 26th with a 3.17 GAA.

They were 25th, and GAA is not defense. It is defense and goaltending.

CA? Last.
FA? Last.
SA? 2nd last.
xGA? Last.
SCA? 3rd last.
HDCA? Last.

That's how.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We do not have the depth that is necessary when injuries occur (look at what Carolina has done without Hamilton and Pesce).

Rielly played the same number of games as Hamilton and Pesce played more games than Muzzin. I don't see what's so special about what they've done, and that's with a ton of money spent on defense depth, some of it wasted.

And was Columbus missing Jones for a period of time?

Yeah, and they sucked.

Tampa Bay missing Stamkos and Hedman?

Hedman missed like 3 games... Stamkos didn't miss more than the likes of Marner.

Why are these, and other, teams not affected the way we were?

They were.

And are you saying players on other teams don’t play through injuries?

Most teams do not play through injuries to the extent that our key players did this season.

However, where does the blame go?

There isn't really blame to place for a low-percentage shot that goes off a stick and then the post and in.

Nylander did not go back so was it his fault? Was the winger not supposed to be engaged along the boards, so was it his fault? Should Keefe be blamed for putting Nylander in that position? Or is it a combination of all the above (which I believe I had mentioned earlier)?

Nylander did go back to cover the point. The shot wasn't from the boards, so why would he be engaged along the boards? Why wouldn't Keefe play Nylander in an elinination game?

Come on, you can do better than that.

You're the one making a ridiculous comparison. An empty net is not equal to a goaltender in the net. A goaltender in the net is not the same thing as a goaltender playing out of his mind in a small sample.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner is certainly not better in the playoffs.

Comparing players based on tiny sample sizes against vastly different opponent quality is pretty ridiculous.

I think some (cough) overrate our guys and underrate players on other teams.

Quite the contrary.

 

[Big Muddy]

Comparing players based on tiny sample sizes against vastly different opponent quality is pretty ridiculous.

Quite the contrary.

Right - ya, the stats don't support your narrative. Got it.

 

[Faltorvo]

I was very pleased when we hired Shanahan. However, results matter. 3 straight 1st round exits as well as missing the playoffs/not getting past the “play-in round” this year. Defensive issues, signing Tavares AND giving the other three those high contracts causing us to be tight against the cap. Shanahan has to bear some of the blame.

i think you mean Dubas

 

[stickty111]

We still have a solid roster, but Dubas needs to think long and hard about moving Nylander/Marner(should be Marner). Also we need another starter.
Add a couple kids on the back end and add another Muzzin type defender. Reshape the bottom 6 a bit. There is decent work to do, but the talent is still clearly there.

 

[Cleetus]

They were 25th, and GAA is not defense. It is defense and goaltending.

CA? Last.
FA? Last.
SA? 2nd last.
xGA? Last.
SCA? 3rd last.
HDCA? Last.

That's how.

id love to see a poll on the main boards who is the better player, and a better value and see the results without homer glasses on... bet you would be surprised Marner vs Aho found one from 2019

 

[BayStBullies]

Marner is certainly not better in the playoffs.

2020 playoffs

Aho - 8 points, #2 overall
Marner - 4 points, #36 overall

Career playoffs

Aho - 20 points, in 2 years (and he's still playing)
Marner - 21 points, in 4 years (he's out of the playoffs ..... again .....)

I think some (cough) overrate our guys and underrate players on other teams. Best to remove the homer glasses.

How does that average out per game played?

 

[Cleetus]

How does that average out per game played?

21 points in 25 Games for Marner playoffs
20 points in 18 games for Aho playoffs

the worst of this is I like Marner he is a hell of a player. but to make false claims that Aho is not even in the same league as Marner is a joke. I think Aho has took major strides this year, where Marner did not.

 

[ToneDog]

We still have a solid roster, but Dubas needs to think long and hard about moving Nylander/Marner(should be Marner). Also we need another starter.
Add a couple kids on the back end and add another Muzzin type defender. Reshape the bottom 6 a bit. There is decent work to do, but the talent is still clearly there.

Yup and he doesn't have any of Lou's leftovers to deal with. No more excuses for Dubas. He needs to get it done right.

 

[Faltorvo]

21 points in 25 Games for Marner playoffs
20 points in 18 games for Aho playoffs

Aho, teams #1c and no forward depth to offer shelter,,no team has to decide between Ahos or another line to shut down

Marner PO 1/2 sheltered winger on stacked 3rd line
PO 3/4 with a stud C and has shelter from another stud line that draws top defensive match ups.

there is literally nothing to compare here.

 

[ACC1224]

Yup and he doesn't have any of Lou's leftovers to deal with. No more excuses for Dubas. He needs to get it done right.

Lou brought in Andersen. That will buy Dubas another season

 

[Faltorvo]

Lou brought in Andersen. That will buy Dubas another season

Rielly at 5m that's Lou also,right?

 

[DueDiligence]

They were 25th, and GAA is not defense. It is defense and goaltending.

CA? Last. No 3rd last
FA? Last. No 27th
SA? 2nd last. No 23rd
xGA? Last. No 28th
SCA? 3rd last. No 25th
HDCA? Last. 3rd last

That's how.

You make me laugh. Goals against don't count???
Also you can't even get your stats correct. ( see above)
Were they bad defensively ; yes. Were they the worst in the league? No.
Why do you need to exaggerate and make false claims just to prove your point?

 

[Gary Nylund]

It didn't go over my head. It's just a bad example that intentionally ignores what was being said.

Stop misrepresenting the things I say.

Then there should be no confusion about the fact that it's the playoffs.

Standard tactic for you - you don't like the example because it contradicts what you claim. You can't say why it's bad because it's not so you just label it bad and pretend that I'm the one ignoring things.

LOL.

It's amusing the way you keep ignoring everything that suggests that the playoffs only started now.

I follow your train of thought, but I just think you've set the bar very high with finishing top-two in their division AND winning at least two rounds in the playoffs more often than not.

I looked at the most recent Stanley Cup champions pre-cup records as follows:

St. Louis won the Cup in 2018-19, finishing second in their division that year. Previously, they finished second and won two rounds in 2015-16, and haven't done that before or since 2009-10 when I began my search. In 2017-18 they finished fifth in their division and missed the playoffs. In 2016-17 they finished third and won the first round and lost in the second. From 2012-13 to 2014-15 they finished first or second and lost in the first round three straight years. Probably lots of gnashing of teeth, as they didn't come close to your true contender status.

Washington won the Cup in 2017-18, having finished first in their division. Prior to that, I don't think they had ever advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs -- and certainly not since 2009-10. No luck there. They weren't your true contenders either.

Pittsburgh won back-to-back Cups in 2015-16 and 2016-17, finishing second in their division each year. Prior to that, going back to 2009-10, they met your standard only once, in 2012-13 when they finished first in their division and lost in the third round - Conference Finals. In between that year and their Cup championships, in 2014-15 they finished fourth and lost in the first round; and in 2013-14 finished first and lost in the second round. Before that they finished first or second three years in a row, and lost in the second round once and the first round twice. Closer, but no cigar.

Chicago I think does come pretty close to meeting your definition of a true contender from their Cup championships from 2009-10 through their later Cup championships in 2012-13 and 2014-15. In between their last two Cups, they finished third and lost in the third round in 2013-14; and in 2010-11 and 2011-12 finished third or fourth in their division and lost both times in the first round. Their three Cup championships and one Conference Finals loss in six years definitely makes them a contender, but even at that the only seasons they actually met your very high criteria were their actual Cup championship years -- but three in six does it every time.

Now were getting more dated with LA, Boston, and I looked at Tampa even though they don't have a Cup within the past 10 years. None of them meet your standards.

Boston met the mark three times -- in 2018-19 they finished second in their division and lost in the Stanley Cup finals; in 2012-13 they finished second and lost in the Cup finals; and in 2010-11 they finished first and won the Stanley Cup. Very impressive, but in the five years from 2013-14 to 2017-18 they missed the playoffs twice, finished fourth twice, second once and first once; and lost in the first round once and the second round twice in the years they did make the playoffs. They have won two rounds three times in the past ten years, and don't meet your standards of a true contender.

I think you get the drift and there's no need to continue. Chicago comes the closest, and none others reach the bar.

I understand what you mean, but I think that what you meant is probably not exactly what you said.

I would also say that pretty much every team that wins the Stanley Cup has its' own tale of repeated disappointments before that, and it's not at all unusual for success to follow repeated failures.

If and when the Leafs win it will be no different for them.

Nice post, appreciate the work you put into this. What I take away from this is that the level of parity in the NHL is so high that it's just so difficult to have playoff success year after year - is that fair?

At the same time, I believe we are the only team yet to win a playoff series in the cap era so making excuses for that is difficult (not saying that's what you're doing). We have had tough opponents the last few years which hasn't helped, but then again CLB was more than beatable this season but I digress ...

Here's all I have to say: if your team's identity is to dump all your chips in on offense, and you can't crack a simple defensive structure employed by a middle of the pack team, the entire premise of your team is invalid. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a failure at a fundamental level.

I'm torn. on one hand we didn't play that badly, a bounce here and there ...

On the other hand, it's really difficult to argue with this. 3 ES goals in 5 games is the stat that's probably going to haunt me at least until we play our next playoff game (and who knows when that will be).

The 2018/19 Blue Jackets are a completely different team than the 2019/20 version. Comparing them year-over-year is basically pointless.

The fact is Toronto scored 3 even strength goals versus Columbus over the course of 5 games. That is disgraceful.

Tampa already has 2 and the first game isn't even over yet.

This post didn't really age well.

Got this from the NBC website & Wiki said the same thing:

Qualifying Round: The remaining 8 teams play best-of-5 series to advance to the First Round (playoff overtime rules in effect).

So, NBC is making the distinction between the "Qualifying Round" and the "First Round of the playoffs".

If it was the First Round of the playoffs, then why don't they just call the First Round of the playoffs versus the term they are actually using which is "Qualifying Round"?

There is much ambiguity here, that much seeems to be obvious to all but one. Sigh.

 

[Blowfish]

Didn't he change roughly half the starting D from the 2018 opener to 2019? Aren't half our top 4 UFAs who aren't expected back?

Who are the 4 UFAs

 

[Trapper]

Who are the 4 UFAs

I think he means half our top 4 D.
Muzzin - Barrie (UFA)
Rielly - Ceci (UFA)

 

[Blowfish]

I think he means half our top 4 D.
Muzzin - Barrie (UFA)
Rielly - Ceci (UFA)

Muzzin and Rielly not going to be easy.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dekes:

Last night's game was a perfect example of what I meant when I said blaming Andersen for losing isn't intelligent. Korpisalo played amazing but in the end, he let in one more goal then the other guy so by your logic, he failed because his job is to outplay the other goalie and that's just nutso.

I think that you can't bring yourself to criticize Dubas even one little bit and therefore you take the stand that Andersen is the scapegoat here and everything else is fine, that's why you neatly break everything down to two parts:

1) Our skaters outplayed theirs (with a bunch of fancy stats to "prove" your claim)
2) Andersen was outplayed by their goalie

This is overly simplistic and simply not fair to Andersen. Andersen's job is to do his job and to do it well, same goes for every player on the team. If everyone does their job well enough then they win. Andersen with a .936 did a very good job overall despite a few bad moments and if everyone on the team had done their job as well as he did, we'd have won.

Their goalie played well, no doubt about it. But maybe if our zillion dollar offence does their job better than they did, their goalie doesn't look as good. Not sure if that hasn't occurred to you or if you're ignoring the possibility but there it is.

 

[Gallagbi]

Who are the 4 UFAs

Half our Top 4 D, so two D - Barrie and Ceci

 

[Dekes For Days]

Right - ya, the stats don't support your narrative.

No, the stats are from a tiny sample, and the difference is one player playing against the worst defensive team in the league, and the other playing against the best defensive team in the league and a goaltender on an insane run. Those 3 games under wildly different conditions don't erase the much more significant and equal sample where Marner is clearly better than Aho. Playoff stats have never been very good for comparing players.

id love to see a poll on the main boards who is the better player, and a better value and see the results without homer glasses on...

Uh.. You didn't even respond to the right post. I don't care what polls say.

Goals against don't count???

Goals against count. They do not represent "defense". Goaltending is a major factor in GA.

Also you can't even get your stats correct.

My stats were correct.

Were they the worst in the league?

Yes, the NYR were the worst defensive team in the league this year.

They do not say it's the playoffs.

The only people that decide explicitly say it's the playoffs in the only place that matters.

NHL Records

"2019-20: The NHL announces on May 26, 2020, the conclusion of the 2019-20 regular season as well as a modified competitive playoff format that features 24 teams"

"2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers
The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin with the 2020 Stanley Cup Qualifiers, which feature both a Round Robin and Qualifying Round."

There's no ambiguity. There's no "well I think this". What it says there is all that matters, because that's the official position of those who make the official position. It's the playoffs.

Standard tactic for you - you don't like the example because it contradicts what you claim.

It doesn't contradict my claim at all. You knew exactly what I meant, so you intentionally provided an example that didn't make sense with a sample size of 1.

It's amusing the way you keep ignoring everything that suggests that the playoffs only started now.

There is nothing else that suggests the playoffs starts now. There is one official statement. The one official statement says that the cup qualifiers were the playoffs. That's all that matters, no matter how much you complain about the NHL's official position.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Rielly played the same number of games as Hamilton and Pesce played more games than Muzzin. I don't see what's so special about what they've done, and that's with a ton of money spent on defense depth, some of it wasted.

Yeah, and they sucked.

Hedman missed like 3 games... Stamkos didn't miss more than the likes of Marner.

They were.

Most teams do not play through injuries to the extent that our key players did this season.

There isn't really blame to place for a low-percentage shot that goes off a stick and then the post and in.

Nylander did go back to cover the point. The shot wasn't from the boards, so why would he be engaged along the boards? Why wouldn't Keefe play Nylander in an elinination game?

You're the one making a ridiculous comparison. An empty net is not equal to a goaltender in the net. A goaltender in the net is not the same thing as a goaltender playing out of his mind in a small sample.

Yeah , they sucked alright. Guess who sucks more? The Laffs. Sucked their way right past this shitty team you’re trying defend with all the homer bones in your body.

Also buddy they were called the Cup qualifiers. Not the Stanley Cup playoffs. Since you can’t seem to understand, if you make the playoffs you’re not in the draft lottery. I guess you must think Montreal made the playoffs with their 12th out of 16 finish in the East. What an accomplishment.

 

[sparxx87]

The NHL playoffs consist of 16 teams. If you’re not one of the 16 you’re not in the playoffs.

COVID shutdown changed the format for the final stretch of season. They didn’t have time for everyone to finish their schedule so they put bubble teams in play-in series’ to decide who makes the 16 team NHL playoffs. The Leafs lost their play-in so they didn’t make the playoffs. It’s quite simple.

Round 1 of the playoffs started yesterday with Tampa and Columbus.