Should have let Nylander sit or traded him for defense.

[ACC1224]

If Marner makes more than Kutcherov I will be really disappointed in this management.

Paying Marner more than Kutcherov would be a tragedy... Kucherov contract kicks in the same year, he is a better player and has many more UFA years sold than Marner.

There really is no justification for Marner making over 9.5 million x 8 other than the fact Matthews just got overpaid.

Marner will get similar money to Matthews.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Marner will get similar money to Matthews.

Will Rantanen, Aho, and Point get Matthews money as well?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Marner will get similar money to Matthews.

I'd hope not. that would be a bad overpayment

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Marner will get similar money to Matthews.

If he does, Nylander or Marner 100% will have to be traded.

Honestly I would rather have Nylander at 6.98 than Marner at 11.36 or whatever.

Marner making Matthews money will screw the cap up bad and require one of the stars being moved out.

 

[ACC1224]

If he does, Nylander or Marner 100% will have to be traded.

Honestly I would rather have Nylander at 6.98 than Marner at 11.36 or whatever.

Marner making Matthews money will screw the cap up bad and require one of the stars being moved out.

You may be right. The GM put them in this bind but did promise everything would be ok.
Maybe he has a trick up his sleeve?

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

I'd hope not. that would be a bad overpayment

People don't get position and how you contribute is the reason Matthews got that contract. He's a C and scored more 5v5 goals than anybody which is the most valuable thing to do. It's worth more than 100 pt seasons.
Also look at this years RFA class in Point, Aho, Marner, Laine, Rantanen, Werenski, and others. Where does Marner even rank? I'd personally say #3 but somehow he'd make more than both Point and Aho who probably deserve more?
Naw, Marner is probably getting like 6x8.5. If Marner's surpasses Rantanen or Aho's the contract is an immediate bust. He'd have to be putting up 100 pt seasons every season to be worth it.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You may be right. The GM put them in this bind but did promise everything would be ok.
Maybe he has a trick up his sleeve?

If there is a trick it is Marleau having a handshake agreement to waive his NTC in year 3 or something.

 

[RLF]

But in the context of Nylander signing his contract, do you think that the Leafs were basically aiming for a 7M AAV cap hit and didn't really care about the extra cost of the contract? They clearly had more than enough room to spare before the beginning of the season. At the end of the day that's why I will always consider this contract a win for Dubas as long as Willy plays to his capability.

Also, how much money did Willy actually lose? Or does he make the full $45million still? Damn economics

I would say both signing it is an indication that both were comfortable with it in the end. Again, I have not or did not debate that. The debate was on what the actual contact is and what comparables would use. I do not believe a comparable cares what Willy takes home, they care about what he signed for based on full seasons. I believe he lost about $3.2 mil which is probably why his is so front loaded in bonuses is my guess.

 

[AreBe]

He's literally been of no value to the team this season. Actually, you could argue he's been of negative value, as the Leafs offense has dried up since he returned and they are on the cusp of being a wildcard team (missing the playoffs also isn't out of the picture). I imagine you could have found a fairly good defenseman for a $7 million cap hit.

Not only do they give the guy a monster long-term contract, but they also promise not to trade him. Why? The guy held you up for more money. Why have a shred of loyalty to someone who does that?

He didn't care about the well-being of the team; only about his personal well-being. I'm OK with that - it's a business. But that business goes both ways. Leafs should have just dealt him, for draft picks if necessary. Why should the Leafs show loyalty to someone who has no loyalty to them?

Drum those stupid speedster skill guys out of town! Enough

Take your skills and go hoist a Cup in some other damn town, and to that city we with a Stanley Cup parade condemn!

Skating? Speed? Play-making? Spatial awareness? In the modern Post concussion Syndrome avoiding NHL? All the wrong stuff!

We are Leafs Nation, we want Good Canadian Kids, and like good hard hits, oblivious to the NHL moving away from billion dollar class actions, and we Leafs Fan know that true hockey is not Betttman's Ivy League lawyers and risk averse accountants brand of hockey and we are going to show Bettman who's boss! Post concision syndrome will not stop us in our quaint views, as we already have injuries to our brain stem!

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Drum those stupid speedster skill guys out of town! Enough

Take your skills and go hoist a Cup in some other damn town, and to that city we with a Stanley Cup parade condemn!

Skating? Speed? Play-making? Spatial awareness? In the modern Post concussion Syndrome avoiding NHL? All the wrong stuff!

We are Leafs Nation, we want Good Canadian Kids, and like good hard hits, oblivious to the NHL moving away from billion dollar class actions, and we Leafs Fan know that true hockey is not Betttman's Ivy League lawyers and risk averse accountants brand of hockey and we are going to show Bettman who's boss! Post concision syndrome will not stop us in our quaint views, as we already have injuries to our brain stem!

Plus why would we want the guy who gets more scoring changes for per 60 minutes than everyone on our team not named John Tavares... noo stats don't prove anything.

 

[dubplatepressure]

People don't get position and how you contribute is the reason Matthews got that contract. He's a C and scored more 5v5 goals than anybody which is the most valuable thing to do. It's worth more than 100 pt seasons.
Also look at this years RFA class in Point, Aho, Marner, Laine, Rantanen, Werenski, and others. Where does Marner even rank? I'd personally say #3 but somehow he'd make more than both Point and Aho who probably deserve more?
Naw, Marner is probably getting like 6x8.5. If Marner's surpasses Rantanen or Aho's the contract is an immediate bust. He'd have to be putting up 100 pt seasons every season to be worth it.

Have to agree with this.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Have to agree with this.

Marner's phenominal but has become pretty overrated among leaf fans in these boards. Emotions are getting in the way of reality imo.

 

[Nithoniniel]

We're pretty good at getting to the net. Think it's funny that the hopeless perimeter player Nylander is tied for third in the league in slot shots this month. Makes you think, doesn't it?

Edit: Didn't mean to make the picture quite so large.
Edit2: Used the tweet instead.

 

[ACC1224]

If there is a trick it is Marleau having a handshake agreement to waive his NTC in year 3 or something.

That would be nice but I'm not holding my breath for that.
IMO, when he made the "we will sign everyone" comment he severely miscalculated what these guys would cost.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

That would be nice but I'm not holding my breath for that.
IMO, when he made the "we will sign everyone" comment he severely miscalculated what these guys would cost.

I also doubt he though AJ and KK were both going to get 20G 20A seasons. Doubt he thought Marner would put up THIS many points.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner's phenominal but has become pretty overrated among leaf fans in these boards. Emotions are getting in the way of reality imo.

Emotions nor fans will determine what he will earn.
Where he fits in the room is where he will be paid.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

That would be nice but I'm not holding my breath for that.
IMO, when he made the "we will sign everyone" comment he severely miscalculated what these guys would cost.

Honestly I think everyone would have made the same mistake with the information they had last summer. At the time I dont think anyone predicted Mitch or Matthews close to 11.36 million regardless of term. It still sounds crazy now...

 

[Nithoniniel]

I also doubt he though AJ and KK were both going to get 20G 20A seasons. Doubt he thought Marner would put up THIS many points.

I think the whole comment gets way overblown. Of course the goal is to sign any and every RFA. It is for everyone. Of course the GM expresses confidence in getting it done. I really don't see the agent leverage here either. The quote tells them that Dubas has every intention to get them signed, so they could theoretically threaten that they'll sit out the season. But that's not an option for them either, so it would be a completely empty threat and everyone knows it.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm more concerned that Marner's contract could hurt us more. If he wants $10m+, is he really that much of an upgrade on Nylander? I don't think so.

well based on the contract so far, it sure looks like it will be. Nylander might get 30 points and Marner 95 this year so that roughly an equivalent pay is 22MM per year from Marner.
If you feel that Nylander will get 70 points next year, that is 15% increase from his best number. Assuming similar growth from Marner, that translates to around 109 points (and before you say this isnt possible, it is far likelier to see a points improvement with a younger player).
109/70=1.56. That translates to 10.9MM for Marner assuming a linear pay for point scale which we know skews the assumption into Nylanders favour. Lets not forget that Marner is better defensively and is great at the PL.

So yeah...Marner is an upgrade

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Emotions nor fans will determine what he will earn.
Where he fits in the room is where he will be paid.

I remember seeing a cap specialist's twitter account (Brother showed me, wish I remembered his handle) who has his own formula for determining values. At the time of Nylander's signing I remember seeing that his guess at Nylander's contract would he 6.9x6 seasons given the results of his algorithm. Somebody asked him right after what he projected Marner to make and his simulation came out with a number ~7.5x7. Now I doubt that it will ever happen that Marner will make that little but I take that into account when I make my guesses.

Let me see if I can find the twitter handle for some validation. Take everything until I find it with a grain of salt.

 

[Trapper]

I think the whole comment gets way overblown. Of course the goal is to sign any and every RFA. It is for everyone. Of course the GM expresses confidence in getting it done. I really don't see the agent leverage here either. The quote tells them that Dubas has every intention to get them signed, so they could theoretically threaten that they'll sit out the season. But that's not an option for them either, so it would be a completely empty threat and everyone knows it.

You’re still going to have to make a choice.
At some point you need to spend money and upgrade the D. You can’t keep paying just forwards.

You make your best forward choices that allow you to improve your D and support the team with decent depth.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

I think the whole comment gets way overblown. Of course the goal is to sign any and every RFA. It is for everyone. Of course the GM expresses confidence in getting it done. I really don't see the agent leverage here either. The quote tells them that Dubas has every intention to get them signed, so they could theoretically threaten that they'll sit out the season. But that's not an option for them either, so it would be a completely empty threat and everyone knows it.

Also to be fair the comment was about the big 4 not AJ and KK. He will get Marner signed and we will retain the big 4 I fully believe that.

 

[ACC1224]

Honestly I think everyone would have made the same mistake with the information they had last summer. At the time I dont think anyone predicted Mitch or Matthews close to 11.36 million regardless of term. It still sounds crazy now...

There certainly was a disconnect between what Marner valued himself at and what Dubas thought.
Turns out even Marner was selling himself short.

 

[ACC1224]

I remember seeing a cap specialist's twitter account (Brother showed me, wish I remembered his handle) who has his own formula for determining values. At the time of Nylander's signing I remember seeing that his guess at Nylander's contract would he 6.9x6 seasons given the results of his algorithm. Somebody asked him right after what he projected Marner to make and his simulation came out with a number ~7.5x7. Now I doubt that it will ever happen that Marner will make that little but I take that into account when I make my guesses.

Let me see if I can find the twitter handle for some validation. Take everything until I find it with a grain of salt.

He turned 7.5 down last summer, looking to be considerably more than that

 

[Notsince67]

I'd hope not. that would be a bad overpayment

Well assuming that Willy is overpaid a mere .5MM, a similar overpayment in the Matthews range translates into .8MM.
I really don't expect people who like to ignore Willy's overpayment to make a fuss in this case.