OT: Severe Weather Discussion II

[TeamKidd]

latest models, pushing things further and further south, to the carolinas. out to sea unlikely at this point.

 

[brachyrynchos]

Sandy fooled me badly. I was here on vacation visitng my parents coincidentally that week and I thought it would bust like Irene did as far as winds, and for the most part it did until the winds shifted E-SE after 5pm and the bottom layer of the atmosphere destabilized. That allowed winds from 2-3,000 feet to mix down and we gusted easily 80-90mph here on the south shore of Nassau County from about 530-730 or so. I remember how scary it was hearing the gusts actually coming from the distance to the east before they actually would reach the house. I never remember that effect before in any storm I wasn’t in.

You weren't alone in thinking that Sandy wasn't going to be as bad. I hope everything worked out ok for your parents and that there wasn't too much damage. It was tough for me to see the aftermath of it all, grew up a dozen blocks south of Atlantic Ave in Baldwin, my parents house, our neighbors all got flooded, so much destroyed inside and outside. My Grandma's house on the bay was washed away, there was nothing left. Long Beach, Island Park, Freeport, the entire south shore was a mess, and it got cold after that storm, people didn't have heat and power. I'm not allowed (politics) to say how FEMA and those elected dropped the ball in terms of getting things restored and cleaned up, so a sincerely belated and eternal thanks goes to the people that did the right thing and looked out for each other, and especially the crews and donations that came from out of state to get things running, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, etc, thank you.
Sorry for my venting, BMOK33. And thanks for sharing. Did you drive or fly in to see your dad & mom? How was it traveling back?

 

[brachyrynchos]

I usually like my girls a bit more,, shall we say....curvy.. but the athletic type is good too! Dont forget my girl Alex Denis on traffic!

I'd like to think we see things the same way, a little more curvy and natural. I have a love/hate thing for Charlesworth at ABC, she's attractive but she kind of has a 'look at me' thing going on, hard to describe, either vanity or insecurity or something else, same thing with Amy Freeze. Alex Denis always struck me as a little more down to earth. She took over I think for Katie mcgee who is now on QVC, another cutie. No argument on my side, but I like Heather O'Rourke for my traffic, like Alex as opposed to some of the others on the grapefruit sndvtic tac diet.
And I like Teresa Priolo on FOX, and Linda Schmidt is foxified to the foxed degree. Schöne.

 

[Tres Peleches]

latest models, pushing things further and further south, to the carolinas. out to sea unlikely at this point.

We probably won’t have a great handle on where this thing is ultimately going until at least Sunday. That’s when the major players will begin to truly take shape.

The trough out to the west of us and the large ridge building north of Florence are the main players, especially the Ridge. Does it build over Florence and force it south? Does Florence outrun it and skirt around the western periphery of it? Does the trough to the west of us make enough progress to kick it a bit east of progged?

Too many questions and not enough answers as of right now.

If I was living anywhere from Georgia to Virginia I’d be watching this very carefully. In our neck of the woods it’s definitely still worth paying attention too, though if it does make landfall the more likely area is south of us IMO.

 

[brachyrynchos]

When Lonnie Quinn takes off his jacket and rolls up his sleeves, prepare for the world’s end.

That's when I make sure to buy another six pack and 1/2 oz, I mean, between Lonnie rolling up his sleeves and putting in an extra hour or two, it must be serious. 'Stay tuned for our extensive storm watch coverage' is my favorite, The sacrifices made by those in the studio rivals Benkei, the Alamo, and Thermopylae.

 

[bigtim1988]

I have a bad feeling about this one, I don't know why, but I think this might hit us directly.

 

[TeamKidd]

We probably won’t have a great handle on where this thing is ultimately going until at least Sunday. That’s when the major players will begin to truly take shape.

The trough out to the west of us and the large ridge building north of Florence are the main players, especially the Ridge. Does it build over Florence and force it south? Does Florence outrun it and skirt around the western periphery of it? Does the trough to the west of us make enough progress to kick it a bit east of progged?

Too many questions and not enough answers as of right now.

If I was living anywhere from Georgia to Virginia I’d be watching this very carefully. In our neck of the woods it’s definitely still worth paying attention too, though if it does make landfall the more likely area is south of us IMO.

Yeah I agree, tho i'm not exactly sure wtf the GFS is doing this morning. Most every other model continues the west trend and south trend. Once it loses it's steering current one never knows exactly what it's going to do. Definitely should know better over next 2 days.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Yeah I agree, tho i'm not exactly sure wtf the GFS is doing this morning. Most every other model continues the west trend and south trend. Once it loses it's steering current one never knows exactly what it's going to do. Definitely should know better over next 2 days.

Yeah. Another important factor here is the track right now. The further north/faster it moves from its current position there’s a better chance it comes further north (not necessarily here north, but not Georgia either).

Both the GFS and Euro seem to have the same evolution of the system in that both have a strong Atlantic Ridge that repositions west of the cyclone and weakens, causing it to slow down and potentially move south for a time before the system gets picked up by the westerlies.

The devil is in the details, however, as due to relatively small differences in how they handle the Atlantic Ridge while the storm is over the ocean means the difference between a land falling storm in a Georgia and a GFS like storm which meanders about the coastline for a bit.

The GFS scenario would be unsettling for me from a Long Island perspective because, exactly as you said, once the steering current weakens it can do anything.

The main concern for me still lies from GA to coastal VA. For us, at least as it looks like right now, we should just keep abreast of the situation as it’s still a ways out and things can still change.

 

[BMOK33]

The high pressure ridging on or off the east coast the last few years has been underforecast constantly by models. Thats why the last 3-4 winters storms we thought were going out to sea 3-4 days out have got the coastal areas with snow and storms we thought would pound coastal areas (like 2-3 of them in a row last March) ended up being bigger for areas north and west of NYC. I expect again that happens here and we will continue seeing the track drift more south. My hunch is this comes in between Jacksonville and Charleston somewhere

 

[NC 1972]

Thank you gentlemen I read this every time there’s a bump to this thread. Living here in Rockaway Beach Queens NY I appreciate that so many of you know your stuff when it comes to theses matters. Any time I open Hockey’s Future and see this has been bumped I immediately open it!

 

[OpAck]

I live in Wilmington, NC...just north of Carolina Beach. We're still 4 days out, but I'll admit...I'm getting a little worried. I'm hoping it steers north and out to sea...but no model (outside of GFS doing some funky spin and stall over OBX) is currently showing that. I've ridden out a Cat 1, but with the kids and all, we'll decide on Monday whether to stay or go if it looks like SE NC is where its headed. Checked with Mrs. Opack and our flood and wind/hail insurance are all paid up.

And we did get one last good beach day in today, just in case!

 

[Bones45]

Tracee Carrasco field reporter . She left though . Lonnie probably put the moves on and scared her away .

I dont think Lonnie put the moves on any of the girls there......

 

[Riddick]

In Richmond, most models look like it's going to hit NC and then just go straight up 95 to Richmond. This ought to be "fun".

 

[KrisBeKreame]

In Richmond, most models look like it's going to hit NC and then just go straight up 95 to Richmond. This ought to be "fun".

Im an hour east of Richmond, although Im on high ground (65ft above sea level), I'm expecting major flooding. I went out today and filled up gas cans. Sandy was my last year on the Island and I dont want a repeat.

 

[TeamKidd]

Just an update, really looks like Long Island area is clear of a direct impact, but those of you in NC should be making preparations for a direct strike. It may yet stall off the coast and steering will be wonky, but some models are hinting at what i'll call a "Harvey Lite" scenario for NC and VA where the storm stalls out over them and rains for days. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen but i've seen it enough in the models where it's at least a possibility, and a bad bad bad one at that.

 

[OpAck]

County schools in Wilmington have already closed for the week and state of emergencies are posted for coastal counties. We'll probably head towards Atlanta, as we have family out that way. I live in a golf course community about a .25 miles from the Cape Fear River on one side and 2 miles from the ocean the other side. It's an older community and alot of 75yo+ seniors aren't going anywhere. I don't think that's very smart, but just hoping for this thing to turn away.

 

[islesmb]

County schools in Wilmington have already closed for the week and state of emergencies are posted for coastal counties. We'll probably head towards Atlanta, as we have family out that way. I live in a golf course community about a .25 miles from the Cape Fear River on one side and 2 miles from the ocean the other side. It's an older community and alot of 75yo+ seniors aren't going anywhere. I don't think that's very smart, but just hoping for this thing to turn away.

Good Luck to you in Wilmington, I'm glad your getting out of dodge. I'm in Myrtle Beach hoping for the best, probably won't evacuate unless it shifts a bit further south.

 

[PK Cronin]

Anyone have an update and could they specifically give me an idea of what may happen to the Delmarva peninsula? I know I always ask, but I trust you guys more than the news.

 

[Costigan77]

Quick question---once this hits the Carolina's---any idea when it affects us up here. (Metropolitan area) I have Jet tickets for Sunday and want to know if I need to prepare for a monsoon

 

[TeamKidd]

Anyone have an update and could they specifically give me an idea of what may happen to the Delmarva peninsula? I know I always ask, but I trust you guys more than the news.

Depends where on the peninsula, but generally the southern part will see low end tropical storm force winds (30-50mph?) and some rain, along with persistent coastal flooding due to the onshore flow in the 3' range?...but less as you go up the peninsula. it's a difficult storm to forecast due to the lack of any true steering currents as it hits the coast, but it's likely to stall and drift over NC, it's still not completely impossible for it to shift a bit north, increasing the effects on the peninsula..

Quick question---once this hits the Carolina's---any idea when it affects us up here. (Metropolitan area) I have Jet tickets for Sunday and want to know if I need to prepare for a monsoon

should be okay, could see some precip but id say thats more likely monday-ish...will know better thursday, kinda depends on eventual track of the storm once it hits land...

 

[IceNeophyte]

It's time to take this thread down.

No one here has a degree in meteorology and to instill fear of what might or might not happen is simply irresponsible.

 

[PK Cronin]

Depends where on the peninsula, but generally the southern part will see low end tropical storm force winds (30-50mph?) and some rain, along with persistent coastal flooding due to the onshore flow in the 3' range?...but less as you go up the peninsula. it's a difficult storm to forecast due to the lack of any true steering currents as it hits the coast, but it's likely to stall and drift over NC, it's still not completely impossible for it to shift a bit north, increasing the effects on the peninsula..




should be okay, could see some precip but id say thats more likely monday-ish...will know better thursday, kinda depends on eventual track of the storm once it hits land...

Thanks. I'm a little more than halfway up, so probably just lots of rain.

 

[BrockLobster]

Hurricane season. The worst time of the year for us home owners in long beach.

 

[TeamKidd]

Thanks. I'm a little more than halfway up, so probably just lots of rain.

yeah, and the US model shifted pretty dramatically south this morning, had the storm over the OBX for days, now plows it right into wilmington...so if that verifies that lessens your effects

 

[YearlyLottery]

Quick question---once this hits the Carolina's---any idea when it affects us up here. (Metropolitan area) I have Jet tickets for Sunday and want to know if I need to prepare for a monsoon

The only thing you need to prepare for is watching that New York Jet defense get another five interceptions Sunday.