OT: Severe Weather Discussion II

[Tres Peleches]

Thanks for the love guys. It's too early to tell on Florence, need a few more days to see how the storm interacts with an advancing high pressure to maybe steer it closer to the US...still almost 2 weeks out from a potential impact, but yes it is possible. i wouldnt call it likely or probable even at this point tho.

What he said.

There’s too many factors to pin down at this point.

Is it worth keeping half an eye on? Sure, at the very least it will likely bring rough surf to Ocean Beaches, even if it stays well south of us.

Really we won’t have a good idea for several days until the large-scale pattern over the Atlantic sets up and even then the exact track will be determined or at least steered largely by its exact strength, position and orientation relative to the cyclone.

 

[CupHolders]

I'm always keeping an eye on the weather for surf-related purposes, so TeamKidd's input is very useful.

...and Noreaster96. Some posters on this thread had called attention to Sandy well before it was even named...

Since then, I rely on this thread to decide if I can drink or not the night before a possible snow day.

So what’s this talk about this thread promoting irresponsiblity?! I call bunkus on that notion!

 

[xECK29x]

*Sees thread gets bumped*

When are we getting snow?!

 

[Tres Peleches]

...and Noreaster96. Some posters on this thread had called attention to Sandy well before it was even named...

Since then, I rely on this thread to decide if I can drink or not the night before a possible snow day.

So what’s this talk about this thread promoting irresponsiblity?! I call bunkus on that notion!

Thanks Cupholders! All the mets and weather enthusiasts here work hard to bring as good insight as we have to the thread... Unfortunately the thoughts aren’t always right, but unfortunately that’s the weather... if it were a perfect science my life would be a heck of a lot easier lol

 

[Tres Peleches]

*Sees thread gets bumped*

When are we getting snow?!

We just got rid of Snow, stop looking to get him back!

 

[Sparksrus3]

Lonnie

Channel 2 cbs New York is my go to news channel . Maybe because I was on the job building the new news room and studio about 6-7 years ago. However this Lonnie dude has determined that he himself is bigger than the actual weather report. Should name his segment the Lonnie hour. I hope someone in charge over there knocks him down a couple steps back to reality . Anyway when he comes on screen it's now NBC 4 for me . I check back every 30-40 minutes to see if Lonnie is done yet.

LGI

 

[Poulin 0n My St1ck]

...and Noreaster96. Some posters on this thread had called attention to Sandy well before it was even named...

Since then, I rely on this thread to decide if I can drink or not the night before a possible snow day.

So what’s this talk about this thread promoting irresponsiblity?! I call bunkus on that notion!

Didn't mean to exclude Noreaster96. And I definitely recall some accurate Sandy predictions in an earlier version of this weather thread, so hats off to those gentlemen. But if there's work the next day after drinking the night before during the storm, the hangover if definitely their fault.

On a separate note, I just booked a surf trip to SoCal yesterday after giving notice at my current job last week, so I hope the Florence swell comes before the night of September 14, otherwise I kinda f***ed up.

 

[MJF]

*Sees thread gets bumped*

When are we getting snow?!

NOOOOO!!!!!!

Sorry. Still easily triggered by the S word.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Didn't mean to exclude Noreaster96. And I definitely recall some accurate Sandy predictions in an earlier version of this weather thread, so hats off to those gentlemen. But if there's work the next day after drinking the night before during the storm, the hangover if definitely their fault.

On a separate note, I just booked a surf trip to SoCal yesterday after giving notice at my current job last week, so I hope the Florence swell comes before the night of September 14, otherwise I kinda ****ed up.

No offense taken, especially if it’s in regard to taking blame :p.

With regards to the swell, the wave watch (which is based on GFS data if I’m not mistaken) model has SE swells increasing gradually the next couple of days, with 5ft+ seas by Sat evening and 6-9 foot waves by Sunday night and likely increasing (only goes out to 180 hours but the GFS has yet to make its closest pass at that point).

Obviously the wave forecast will be dependent on the storms track and whatnot, but the weather service is showing 6-8 foot waves by Sunday as well

 

[MJF]

Thanks for the love guys. It's too early to tell on Florence, need a few more days to see how the storm interacts with an advancing high pressure to maybe steer it closer to the US...still almost 2 weeks out from a potential impact, but yes it is possible. i wouldnt call it likely or probable even at this point tho.

Since I’m currently visiting the fam in Delray Beach, I’m wondering if I should try to get them to come back north with me on Sunday, but that storm is still too far out

 

[TeamKidd]

Since I’m currently visiting the fam in Delray Beach, I’m wondering if I should try to get them to come back north with me on Sunday, but that storm is still too far out

yeah i wouldnt bother making any plans about this storm at this point, as NorEaster said just keep half an eye on it, it will change.

 

[BMOK33]

Sandy fooled me badly. I was here on vacation visitng my parents coincidentally that week and I thought it would bust like Irene did as far as winds, and for the most part it did until the winds shifted E-SE after 5pm and the bottom layer of the atmosphere destabilized. That allowed winds from 2-3,000 feet to mix down and we gusted easily 80-90mph here on the south shore of Nassau County from about 530-730 or so. I remember how scary it was hearing the gusts actually coming from the distance to the east before they actually would reach the house. I never remember that effect before in any storm I wasn’t in.

 

[Poulin 0n My St1ck]

No offense taken, especially if it’s in regard to taking blame :p.

With regards to the swell, the wave watch (which is based on GFS data if I’m not mistaken) model has SE swells increasing gradually the next couple of days, with 5ft+ seas by Sat evening and 6-9 foot waves by Sunday night and likely increasing (only goes out to 180 hours but the GFS has yet to make its closest pass at that point).

Obviously the wave forecast will be dependent on the storms track and whatnot, but the weather service is showing 6-8 foot waves by Sunday as well

I’m keeping me eyes on Florence’s track every hour on the hour. For me, this time of year is like Christmas Eve - the anticipation kills me.

I can see we’re getting the initial pulse starting this weekend, but I’m not optimistic that we’ll have macking, clean conditions over the next week or so, at least before I leave. I just hope that it stays offshore and doesn’t make landfall.

 

[BMOK33]

No storms in Florence’s current position have ever struck the US. It’s possible one did before records but in the last 150 years or so none have. My guess right now is it will get very close but turn out to sea 200-300 miles before reaching the US

 

[Riddick]

Looks like there's a decent chance for Florence to affect residents along a good portion of the East Coast.

Last year there was a website that took the "most likely path" from a bunch of different forcasts and did a map like this. Do you remember the name of it? It was odd I recall, just like seeing things like this and weathermodels is MUCH more involved than the other one was.

 

[Bones45]

Channel 2 cbs New York is my go to news channel . Maybe because I was on the job building the new news room and studio about 6-7 years ago. However this Lonnie dude has determined that he himself is bigger than the actual weather report. Should name his segment the Lonnie hour. I hope someone in charge over there knocks him down a couple steps back to reality . Anyway when he comes on screen it's now NBC 4 for me . I check back every 30-40 minutes to see if Lonnie is done yet.

LGI

I just like Kristine Johnson.

 

[Poulin 0n My St1ck]

Last year there was a website that took the "most likely path" from a bunch of different forcasts and did a map like this. Do you remember the name of it? It was odd I recall, just like seeing things like this and weathermodels is MUCH more involved than the other one was.

Sorry, I don't know.

I get my hurricane and nor'easter info from Surfline and @hurricanetracker on Instagram (and from this thread). The photo I posted is from Hurricane Tracker.

 

[brachyrynchos]

I just like Kristine Johnson.

Yeah, kristine is nice. Got a thing for Vanessa Murdock and Dana Tyler (Phil Collins broke her heart, she looks good for her age). Reporter Ali Baumann, too.

 

[MJF]

Yeah, kristine is nice. Got a thing for Vanessa Murdock and Dana Tyler (Phil Collins broke her heart, she looks good for her age). Reporter Ali Baumann, too.

Dana Tyler can’t read. She’s getting Ted Baxter bad with her slipups. She needs to wear glasses.

 

[brachyrynchos]

Dana Tyler can’t read. She’s getting Ted Baxter bad with her slipups. She needs to wear glasses.

Hey we all get old, my eyesight isn't that great anymore either. She's pleasant enough to watch at 6, I like her. Calvi is boring in the A.M, (same with Rodriguez over at NBC).
Since this is the weather thread, channel 7 is pretty good for storm coverage same w/CBS although I find Lonnie and John Elliott tolerable but a little overdramatic, not a fan of NBC or Fox and News12 is only good at covering what already happened, their weather forecasts are kinda whatever.

 

[MJF]

Hey we all get old, my eyesight isn't that great anymore either. She's pleasant enough to watch at 6, I like her. Calvi is boring in the A.M, (same with Rodriguez over at NBC).
Since this is the weather thread, channel 7 is pretty good for storm coverage same w/CBS although I find Lonnie and John Elliott tolerable but a little overdramatic, not a fan of NBC or Fox and News12 is only good at covering what already happened, their weather forecasts are kinda whatever.

When Lonnie Quinn takes off his jacket and rolls up his sleeves, prepare for the world’s end.

 

[lazycop]

I just like Kristine Johnson.

Hell yes on Kristine Johnson!

 

[Brunomics]

I so appreciate this thread. I think I've learned more weather wise with you guys than I ever have outside of HF.

 

[Bones45]

Hell yes on Kristine Johnson!

I usually like my girls a bit more,, shall we say....curvy.. but the athletic type is good too! Dont forget my girl Alex Denis on traffic!

 

[Sparksrus3]

I usually like my girls a bit more,, shall we say....curvy.. but the athletic type is good too! Dont forget my girl Alex Denis on traffic!

Tracee Carrasco field reporter . She left though . Lonnie probably put the moves on and scared her away .