And it puts on the brakes as it's about to make landfall...gonna need an ark getting back here.
OT: Severe Weather Discussion II
- Thread starter The Underboss
- Start date
- Status
And it puts on the brakes as it's about to make landfall...gonna need an ark getting back here.
Tres Peleches
Johnny Turncoat
- Jul 13, 2011
- 8,303
- 6,668
What the GFS and ECMWF show verbatim has to be basically an absolute worst case scenario for locales in coastal southeastern NC. Potential for Powerful onshore winds for a day plus perhaps 40” of rain? The eyewall would just sit in the same spot if it stalled like that.
With the shift south in the projected path were leaving Myrtle, hopefully things aren't too bad when we get back. Good luck to all in our area and stay safe please.And it puts on the brakes as it's about to make landfall...gonna need an ark getting back here.
Sparksrus3
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2012
- 10,029
- 4,908
Our experts are sorely missed right now. No Sparky comments .
Just hope everyone got out of there days ago.
Peace to all.
LGI
Just hope everyone got out of there days ago.
Peace to all.
LGI
I have family on Emerald Isle. Didn’t evacuate. They don’t leave for category 3 or less. Lost a couple trees, most trees stripped bare. Flood water about 8 feet above sea level, as of 3 pm this afternoon. Wind not that bad. Raining like all hell, they said though. Weather map showed they were getting hammered by the yellow and red bands non-stop.
Alot of trees down in Wilmington also. Haven't heard from my neighbors since this morning when they said the neighborhood held up pretty well. Hoping all is well. Going to be hell getting back (from Atlanta).
Please let us know how you make out. I got back to Myrtle last night, no issues and still have power.
Thanks! Wilmington is completely cut off at the moment. I probably won't be able to try to get back until mid-week the earliest. People have tried, but all roads leading to are either flooded, blocked, or are sink holes. Gas is also scarce. So I could get there...get stuck and then run out of gas. Just a bad situation.
It's pretty similar to Harvey in Texas...the rain just didnt stop and 10-30 inches fell across the region. My neighbor went in my house to check for damage, and I've got a leak in the attic. I think it's where the bracket to the satellite dish is. Hopefully, that's the extent of it...I just want to get home (as long as the power turns back on, of course).
Good luck with everything brother. Hopefully the leak is the worst of it and all friends, family, neighbors, etc came through relatively unscathed.
I'll be thinking about you, hope all goes well when you can get back.
Tres Peleches
Johnny Turncoat
- Jul 13, 2011
- 8,303
- 6,668
Hello all! Just wanted to give a heads up, with a nor’easter coming up the coast this Thursday we could see our first snowfall of the season... doesn’t look like a big snowstorm by any means, but it will have bad timing starting a little before the evening rush hour.
Precipitation starts as snow before mixing sleet, then rain before changing to rain.
Accumulations will be tough to figure out exactly, because it will depend a lot on how quickly the lower levels of the atmosphere saturate (its a very dry, cold airmass) and how quickly it mixes with sleet and rain
If it comes down hard enough (which can sometimes happen in these warm air advection type snows) we could see a couple of inches, though unless it comes down like a banshee it would likely be mainly confined to grass, car tops, trees
Just wanted to give the heads up. Keep an eye on the weather. While we’ve been through much worse, it’s the first wintry precipitation of the year during evening rush hour it could be a worse commute than normal
The most likely scenario at this point is wet roads and maybe a slushy 1/2”-1” on the grass and car tops, but worth watching nonetheless
Precipitation starts as snow before mixing sleet, then rain before changing to rain.
Accumulations will be tough to figure out exactly, because it will depend a lot on how quickly the lower levels of the atmosphere saturate (its a very dry, cold airmass) and how quickly it mixes with sleet and rain
If it comes down hard enough (which can sometimes happen in these warm air advection type snows) we could see a couple of inches, though unless it comes down like a banshee it would likely be mainly confined to grass, car tops, trees
Just wanted to give the heads up. Keep an eye on the weather. While we’ve been through much worse, it’s the first wintry precipitation of the year during evening rush hour it could be a worse commute than normal
The most likely scenario at this point is wet roads and maybe a slushy 1/2”-1” on the grass and car tops, but worth watching nonetheless
Last edited:
bigtim1988
YES! YES! YES! YES!
f***, I hate seeing this thread pop up.
It’s always the first thing that informs me of incliment weather in the forecast
It’s always the first thing that informs me of incliment weather in the forecast
Tres Peleches
Johnny Turncoat
- Jul 13, 2011
- 8,303
- 6,668
Certainly don’t mean to cause a stir, especially for this storm. If it weren’t the first of the year and happening during rush-hour it wouldn’t even be notable for us barring something crazy and unforeseen happening
Just wanted to give a heads up for our first dose of winter for the season
Strummergas
Regular User
Mr Misunderstood
Loser Point User
Not your fault. I appreciate this thread a lot. I just get sick of the increasingly long New York winters.
Tres Peleches
Johnny Turncoat
- Jul 13, 2011
- 8,303
- 6,668
Out of where? Most, if not all, of th the Island will more than likely be rain at that point, but it will be breezy and could be raining heavily. I’m no good at guessing what the airlines do though, so I’m not much help in that department lol
With regards to this storm how much snow and how quickly it turns to rain will be very tenuous and will be based largely on surface wind directions. The more northerly the component, the more/longer its snow and sleet. If it turns east right off the bat, however, it’s probably just a bit of snow/sleet than rain.
If I had to guess at this point, I’d say a slushy coating to 1/2”, maybe 1” on like Janes hill or something in NW Suffolk on grass, car tops, etc. for western LI away from the shore then rain. The one caveat is that Cold Air Damming tends to be underdone on the models. Should that happen and it stays colder longer we could be dealing with wintry precipitation. That’s my one concern with this storm. If that happens, it turns into a snow to prolonged sleet to rain, which is no fun
Delays from visibility and de-icing would be more of a concern than anything falling from the sky, no?
There are few things in life that give me joy like getting a new set of snow tires on my wife's car and watching her drive down our snowy driveway in the morning.... which is what happened today.
Glory Days
Registered User
I just got the snow blower tuned up and filled with gas. So that means no snow tomorrow.
Just 2 weeks ago, in a rare case of planning ahead, I bought a monster 2 stage to add to my trusty single stage. Bring it on.
- Status
Ad
Upcoming events
-
Pelicans Lahti @ Tappara Tampere - Tappara leads series 2-0Wagers: 4Staked: $15,236.00Event closes- Updated:
-
Ocelari Trinec @ HC Dynamo Pardubice - Series tied 2-2Wagers: 2Staked: $62.00Event closes- Updated:
-
-
-
