#Senswatch, Sixth Edition: Now Introducing #Avswatch

[Thrasymachus]

4-0.

 

[forsbergavs32]

I think it’s a given he’ll garner a 1st and a top prospect. No idea what will be added to drive the deal home. I don’t think he’ll get a blue chip prospect like Makar, either. They’ll probably want a young NHLer or two in the Stone & Duchene trades.

I think most everyone is spot on with Avs 1st + Kaut + Kerfoot as an example offer

 

[Papa Francouz]

I think most everyone is spot on with Avs 1st + Kaut + Kerfoot as an example offer

I would have to agree. Unless another team gets super desperate, I imagine those are the offers being made to Dorion right now. I don’t think it would be prudent for a team in the Avs’ position to make a deal like that, though.

 

[AvsFan29]

I think it’s a given he’ll garner a 1st and a top prospect. No idea what will be added to drive the deal home. I don’t think he’ll get a blue chip prospect like Makar, either. They’ll probably want a young NHLer or two in the Stone & Duchene trades.

Dorion is more of a begger than a chooser. There's obviously a reason that Duchene is being paid to eat nachos

 

[AvsFan29]

I think most everyone is spot on with Avs 1st + Kaut + Kerfoot as an example offer

For who?

 

[forsbergavs32]

For who?

Talking about for Stone. Not saying we should. That’s just been the approx value thrown around here today.

 

[forsbergavs32]

delete

 

[AvsFan29]

Talking about for Stone. Not saying we should. That’s just been the approx value thrown around here today.

Oh ok. Yah that seems reasonable with a contract. I thought you were talking about Duchene lol I don't think Duchene is worth as much as a lot of people I have a feeling that a lot of people will be disappointed with the return. Him sitting around right now isn't a good sign.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Yeah as much as I am happy to see the Sens lose right now, I really just want this to be over for them. It doesn't feel right to be cheering for another team to lose as much as I have this season and especially one going through as much turmoil and as big of a shit show as what the Sens fan base as went through the past 14 months essentially.


I'll be happy to collect our Top 4 pick in June and then immediately wish nothing but the best to Ottawa going forward. Especially if Melnyk gets forced out because I really truly do dislike that man.

 

[AvsFan29]

Yeah as much as I am happy to see the Sens lose right now, I really just want this to be over for them. It doesn't feel right to be cheering for another team to lose as much as I have this season and especially one going through as much turmoil and as big of a **** show as what the Sens fan base as went through the past 14 months essentially.


I'll be happy to collect our Top 4 pick in June and then immediately wish nothing but the best to Ottawa going forward. Especially if Melnyk gets forced out because I really truly do dislike that man.

Well if there's any fan base who can sympathize with an absolute disaster of a season, it's us lol

I hope they lose every game, and then develop some great players to take on Toronto / Montreal.

 

[AvsFan29]

With only 22 games left for OTT / LA / EDM, it looks like Ottawa has a very high chance of finishing 31st or 30th.

OTT is up 3 points on LA, and 7 points on EDM.

For EDM to finish behind OTT, they would need to win 8 points LESS than OTT over the next 22 games.

OTT has most likely become significantly weaker at the deadline, with potentially losing 3 players that make up 41% of their scoring.

If you look at the Sens P% (.408), they project to gain 18 / 44 remaining points.

For Edmonton to gain 8 points less than Ottawa over the next 22 games, they would need to win no more than 10 points out of a possible 44.

For Edmonton to have a realistic shot at finishing below Ottawa, they can't win more than 5 of their final 22 games.

EDM / OTT have 2 games yet to be played.

Edmonton will have a hard time losing to OTT, and winning those 2 games would likely ruin their chances at 31st.

If Edmonton wins those 2 games against Ottawa, they will have to lose 17 of their 20 remaining games.

If you consider that these point totals are based on point projections for an Ottawa team that had those 3 forwards in their line up, it's safe to say they don't hold a .408 P% for the rest of the year.

It's pretty safe to say that Edmonton can't play bad enough to finish below Ottawa.

31st/30th finish extremely likely.

You can see why a 31st place finish is so important.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Ottawa	18.5	16.5	14.4	50.6
Los Angeles	13.5	13.0	12.3	33.3	27.9
Detroit	11.5	11.3	11.1	13.2	37.7	15.2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It's pretty safe to say that Edmonton can't play bad enough to finish below Ottawa.

If there's one thing we have learned over the past decade.... When it comes to finishing last place, do not ever count out Edmonton.

 

[AvsFan29]

If there's one thing we have learned over the past decade.... When it comes to finishing last place, do not ever count out Edmonton.

I didnt

 

[avsfan09]

If there's one thing we have learned over the past decade.... When it comes to finishing last place, do not ever count out Edmonton.

If they win this year they've really outdone themselves.

 

[AvsFan29]

If they win this year they've really outdone themselves.

It would take sucking on an epic proportion.

I don't think Ottawa even hits 18 points, meaning Edmonton would have to keep it to 9-10 points for the rest of the season.

Kinda hard to do with McDavid on the team.

Unless Ottawa somehow gets better without Duchene / Stone / Dzingle. Very unlikely.

 

[Pacman33]

If sens really move all three guys, theres just no way i can realistically see them finishing anywhere but 31st. Theres some bad teams out there but still have to expect a team with mcdavid or a team with kopitar and doughty will still be slightly better than sens

 

[AvsFan29]

If sens really move all three guys, theres just no way i can realistically see them finishing anywhere but 31st. Theres some bad teams out there but still have to expect a team with mcdavid or a team with kopitar and doughty will still be slightly better than sens

Yep. Very unlikely that Ottawa will drop below 30th, which means we're getting a top 5 pick, highly likely top 4, and 50/50 top 3.

 

[Freudian]

Oilers don't need to finish last. They got that lottery luck. They won the lottery 2012 and 2015.

 

[AvsFan29]

Oilers don't need to finish last. They got that lottery luck. They won the lottery 2012 and 2015.

Odds were a lot better back before they changed them --- because Edmonton kept winning.

 

[Hasbro]

 

[Foppberg]

Melnyk out trending in Ottawa for like the 500th time this year lol

 

[AvsFan29]

Wow Edmonton came back to win against NYI

Count them out of finishing last.

This Sens pick is going to be a top 5.

 

[Balthazar]

Now if LA could win a game once in a while that'd be great. They've lost 6 in a row and are awfully close to the Sens.

 

[AvsFan29]

Now if LA could win one game once in a while that'd be great. They've lost 6 in a row and are awfully close to the Sens.

Yah. Would definitely help. I don't expect Ottawa to win more than a handful this year. L.A. would have to lose like 18 / 22 games to have a shot at last

 

[The Merchant]

They just said on TSN that Stone will garner 2 1st rounders and 2 good prospects. Duchene might be a bit less value, but still should return a good value.

lol when's the last time a rental garnered two 1sts, let alone more on top?