Value of: Sens 2019 1st Rd Pick (Avs own)

[HogTown06]

AVS Fans : Thats not enough for the chance at Hughes.

Everyone Else : Its only an 18% chance at best, 'it could even be a boat' memes, and "HF overrates draft picks".

First post covered all the angles.

 

[Crossfire Hurricane]

I remember when the Sabres had the Isles first pick leading up to the 2015 draft. It was a pretty terrible feeling when people would talk about it like it was guaranteed to be McDavid or Eichel. My hope for Ottawa fans is that things end up playing out similarly for them.

Avs fans went through the same after trading a 1st for Varlamov. Everyone assumed it was going to be Nail Yakupov, but the Avs over-performed and it only ended up being Filip Forsberg.

...

 

[strictlyrandy]

Avs fans went through the same after trading a 1st for Varlamov. Everyone assumed it was going to be Nail Yakupov, but the Avs over-performed and it only ended up being Filip Forsberg.

...

That Avs roster was significantly better than the Sens roster is now.

 

[returnofthemack29]

Yes i totally get it but we arent there yet , not even close. Too many things can happen between now and the lottery.
Plus idk just be cool guys, go about your business , most likely its gonna be top 15 or 18..thats still great t0 shore up our depth

Come on...you can’t seriously believe that. There’s a lot higher chance of the pick being top 5 than top 18. I mean anything can happen, but you seriously can’t believe it’s most likely that the Senators make the playoffs this year. They have one of the worst dman groups I’ve ever seen...and I’m an Avs fan. Not to mention an ancient goaltender coming off a terrible season and a bottom 5 forward group. Let’s be honest, it would take a miracle for the Senators to even think about thinking about competing to make the playoffs.

 

[Crossfire Hurricane]

That Avs roster was significantly better than the Sens roster is now.

Eh, marginally. ROR led the team in scoring with like 50 points, the defense behind EJ was brutal. Jan Hejda was probably the second best defenseman followed by... SOB? O'Byrne?

EDIT: Ottawa may legit have better forwards than that Avs team. I completely forgot David Jones was ever a thing, but he was third in goals for the Avs that year with 20, two behind Landeskog's team leading 22.

 

[Benstheman]

Having this pick just means the Avs have the opportunity to move their own 1st rounder for something if it pops up. They won't move Ottawa's.

Weber for Jost and Col 2019 1st.

 

[DFC]

I would love to see the Sharks' offer.

 

[Starat327]

Weber for Jost and Col 2019 1st.

EJ
Barrie
Makar


Why are they acquiring weber, again?

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I mean realistically it would have to be someone in the
Matthews/Barzal/Eichel range of young centermen… or its better that the Avs just keep it.

Thatll be a top 5 pick for sure, and im guessing in the 1-3 range... so even if you don't get hughes your still going to get a pretty franchise changing player. I literally cant believe the situation Ottawa is in … lose your best player, likely going to move Stone/Duchene at some point... and you don't even have your potential 1st overall pick in draft because you moved it for Duchene. That is just brutal

 

[Goulet17]

The Ottawa pick may not be as high as people expect. The East has some teams that may be quite bad this year and Ottawa definitely could finish in front of them IMO (at least on paper).

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The odds of it being #1 are very low. Ottawa finished second last this year but their pick dropped to #4. I'm not sure how keeping a guaranteed top 4 pick vs a mystery box is a screw up. Point to Dorian for other decisions but I think this one is misguided

Sens lineup is awful. If Dorion was trading our best player we should have kept the 2019 pick. At best(worst?) we finish like 3rd from the bottom and drop 3 spots in the lottery for 6th overall. Otherwise it would probably be 4th overall or better.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The Ottawa pick may not be as high as people expect. The East has some teams that may be quite bad this year and Ottawa definitely could finish in front of them IMO (at least on paper).

Pageau is out for a few months so:
Dzingel-Duchene-Stone
Boedker-Tierney-Ryan
Tkachuk-Smith-White
Paajarvi-Carey-Pyatt

Chabot-Ceci
Wolanin-Demelo
Borowiecki-Harpur

Anderson
Condon

Sens are not finishing ahead of anyone. Maaaaaaybe the Canucks and Habs if they suffer some injuries, but otherwise nope.

 

[tmg]

Time to revisit this guy after the Sharks fleeced the Senators.

I still don't really get this angle.

The Sens were already the odds-on favorite to finish last. Sure there may have been a little bit of a race for the bottom against Vancouver and Montreal, but the fact is this team finished secondlast last season, lost their best sniper earlier in the offseason, and the only team that finished behind them should be substantially improved.

The 'fleecing' moved them from likely-last-surely-bottom-3 to more-likely-last-surely-bottom-3. The actual Hughes odds hardly budged. They're still stratospherically more dictated by the ping pong balls in a hopper next spring than they are by the actual play of the Sens on the ice. Karlsson-Sens and nonKarlsson-Sens were both, realistically, 15-18% Hughes picks. If this moved them from 16.6% to 17.4% likely to be giving up the Hughes pick (because their probability of overachieving to finish 29 or 30 is now lower than it was a few days ago)? Does that really change the game?

 

[Clayonator]

My 2019 top 5 draft order prediction:

1: Detroit - Hughes
2: Montreal - Cozens
3: Vancouver - Kakko
4: Arizona - Podkolzin
5: Colorado (from Ottawa) - Broberg

 

[Spilot23]

Weber for Jost and Col 2019 1st.

You're basically trying to give us a player that plays a position where we're strong at. Also you're trying to take away our closest thing to a #2C we have and a 1st round pick that could help us either draft a forward or trade for one that could help our 2nd line. Easy no.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I still don't really get this angle.

The Sens were already the odds-on favorite to finish last. Sure there may have been a little bit of a race for the bottom against Vancouver and Montreal, but the fact is this team finished secondlast last season, lost their best sniper earlier in the offseason, and the only team that finished behind them should be substantially improved.

The 'fleecing' moved them from likely-last-surely-bottom-3 to more-likely-last-surely-bottom-3. The actual Hughes odds hardly budged. They're still stratospherically more dictated by the ping pong balls in a hopper next spring than they are by the actual play of the Sens on the ice. Karlsson-Sens and nonKarlsson-Sens were both, realistically, 15-18% Hughes picks. If this moved them from 16.6% to 17.4% likely to be giving up the Hughes pick (because their probability of overachieving to finish 29 or 30 is now lower than it was a few days ago)? Does that really change the game?

It does. Healthy Karlsson could have dragged that team up the standings. That risk has been eliminated.

Think of how bad the Avs would have been this year if Mackinnon didnt drag the team on his back, or the Devils without Hall.

 

[Goulet17]

Pageau is out for a few months so:
Dzingel-Duchene-Stone
Boedker-Tierney-Ryan
Tkachuk-Smith-White
Paajarvi-Carey-Pyatt

Chabot-Ceci
Wolanin-Demelo
Borowiecki-Harpur

Anderson
Condon

Sens are not finishing ahead of anyone. Maaaaaaybe the Canucks and Habs if they suffer some injuries, but otherwise nope.

We'll see. On paper, I am not sure that Detroit or Montreal are better than Ottawa.

 

[Hasbro]

Avs fans went through the same after trading a 1st for Varlamov. Everyone assumed it was going to be Nail Yakupov, but the Avs over-performed and it only ended up being Filip Forsberg.

...

Which really would have worked out better for the Caps if not for you know...

Anyway, we may just have to find a way to live with a guy like Kakko, Newhook or Turcotte.

 

[Benstheman]

EJ
Barrie
Makar


Why are they acquiring weber, again?

Big upgrade on any of them AINEC.

 

[Starat327]

Big upgrade on any of them AINEC.

Only Montreal uses it's valuable assets to upgrade areas that are already strengths.

Colorado has other, more important areas to upgrade than RHD if its moving it's first.

 

[Spilot23]

What about Timmins + COL 1st for Kotkaniemi?

 

[Makar Goes Fast]

the duchene deal has the chance to be the icing on the cake for this franchise. adding a top 15 pick will do nothing but help colorado and add some significant depth, yet alone if it is a top 5 pick or even better. No reason for colorado to trade this pick at all.

 

[milehigh11]

Could maaaaaaaaybe see them trading it for an extended Stone, but otherwise they are keeping it. Dorion screwed up big time.

Not a chance they would consider to trade it back to the Senators. The Avs can try their luck in FA and get Stone where it only costs $$$. Not trading controllable young talent and/or high draft picks.

Would much rather the Avs go after Panarin in Free Agency than Stone. lol. We can dream here in the Mile high City

 

[milehigh11]

What about Timmins + COL 1st for Kotkaniemi?

Only if the Colorado Pick is lottery protected because I fully expect the Avs to miss the playoffs this upcoming year

 

[Spilot23]

Only if the Colorado Pick is lottery protected because I fully expect the Avs to miss the playoffs this upcoming year

Yeah you’re right with almost every Pacific teams getting better this offseason also STL getting ROR, Maroon and Bozak yikes gonna be a hard fight for a playoff spot. Also I did this proposal for that Habs fan that wanted to trade us Weber, I don’t expect him to say yes or that it’s fair but Habs have finally that top C prospect, would they trade him for something they don’t necessarily need? I don’t think so.