Alf Silfversson
Registered User
- Jun 8, 2011
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Speculation: Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs
- Thread starter Chabot84
- Start date
Sensmileletsgo
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- Oct 22, 2018
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Adele Dazeem
Registered User
No chance
My hope is Dorion is planning to set the team (defense in particular) to compete after the expansion draft shakeup passes
My hope is Dorion is planning to set the team (defense in particular) to compete after the expansion draft shakeup passes
Probably worse right. That’s off the top of my head. We are playing well though it wouldn’t surprise me to go 3-0-0 against MTL for starters
TheDebater
Peace be upon you
I love how delayed his reaction was. He did not instantly reach for the cup and toss it, for a moment he adjusted his book and pen like he was ready to pack it up and walk away...but then the fuse popped.
Mark Stones Spleen
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ACLEVERNAME
schadenfreude
- Jan 6, 2010
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BondraTime
Registered User
Quite a bit worse, behind by more points with less games remaining, while the teams ahead all have significant games in hand.
If the Sens go on an improbable 19-1-1 run to end the season, they’d still need one of Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton or Winnipeg to lose a certain amount of of games.
If we go 19-1-1 to finish the season, the Habs have to go worse than 13-10-2 at the same time in order for the Sens to pass them.
Right now, 67ish points is what seems to be needed to make the playoffs, Sens would need to go 20-1 to reach that, along with hoping the other teams don’t keep up their current pace.
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well don’t forget that 4 of the 10 Habs losses would have come from the Sens in this scenario
so they would have to go worse then 13-6-2
(I didn’t fact check this though to see if you already put the 4 auto losses in)
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The point of this thread wasn’t really to say it’s a likely outcome just more that if we pull up our socks here and start with 3-0-0 on MTL maybe we could get excited about the next game.. it’s gonna have to be taken game by game because if we lose more then 2 or 3 we are probably done at that point.
But as of today... we still have a shot here and I think we can run the table on the habs
if they are smart this is a topic in the dressing room right now to get the boys motivated. 1 game at a time. Get the W in regulation. Against Oilers and Toronto get the W in OT all good. Or lose in OT all good.
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I just had some time to take a peak at the Habs schedule:
don’t forget the habs also play either the Oilers or Toronto 8 more times this year. So dropping 4 games to the Sens would put them in a heap of trouble.
DanyHeatley
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- Dec 6, 2016
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Well need Gus or maybe even forsberg to pull off a Hammond run. With Murray, Daccord and Hog out. 20-0-1, 1.79 gaa, sub .940 sv%
BondraTime
Registered User
Sens have all but been mathematically eliminated.
National Hockey League Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats
NHL Playoff Odds
Playoff Probabilities Report | Hockey-Reference.com
Montreal aren’t in any trouble, and the Sens are not in anyway in the conversation. Should that happen and the Sens sweep the Habs the rest of the season, the Habs drop 9%, the Sens rise less than 1%.
But if you want to cling on to the 0-0.3% chance, you’re more than welcome
Adele Dazeem
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aragorn
Do The Right Thing
- Aug 8, 2004
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Ottawa lacks size down the middle & we have already seen in this North Division how much difficulty this team has handling centres like Mathews, Schiefele, Draisaitl & Dubois not to mention all the other big centres in the NHL. L. Brown could have made a difference if he could only stay healthy & Pinto might help, but Ottawa also needs RWers. Paul could get moved, but he's more of a bottom six player than top six, but they should at least give him a shot.
DylanSensFan
BEESHIP: NBH
Again I get where you are trying to come from but it is delusional to think that playoffs should be motivation at this point.
You even say it yourself, lose 2 and it's over...they are motivated to get better and play for jobs, that's it and that's enough for a young pro.
Next year without losing 15 of 17 or whatever that awful stretch was can be a different story.
It’s a different kinda year guys because of the divisional play. I don’t know how to explain it.. it’s pretty simple:
if we beat the teams ahead of us we would make the playoffs and we just so happen to play the right blend of teams to finish the year here. It’s the perfect storm.
no one is saying we are actually going to run the table and make the playoffs. But with the unique setup this year anything is actually possible and we are not out of it yet.
if we beat the teams ahead of us we would make the playoffs and we just so happen to play the right blend of teams to finish the year here. It’s the perfect storm.
no one is saying we are actually going to run the table and make the playoffs. But with the unique setup this year anything is actually possible and we are not out of it yet.
BondraTime
Registered User
As I said, I’d they lose all 4 to us, they drop from 90ish% or so chance to an 80ish% or so, so not at all. If we win all those, we still are at less than a 5% chance to make it.
These %’s are all compiled knowing who is playing who, they take into account how many games against teams ahead of them they have.
We have about a 3/1000 chance, which has been compiled with all known information remaining in our schedule.
There is no hidden points % to get into the playoffs, it’s a pretty easily compiled %. The Sens are at a 0.3% chance at making the playoffs, which is actually higher than reality.
Should the Sens win their next 10 games, they will still be on the outside looking in more than likely with around a 25% chance at making the playoffs, that would be a time we may talk about the playoffs being even remotely possible.
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SensontheRush
Never said it was Sunshine
Percentages mean nothing in this conversation.
Is there a route into the playoffs? Yes.
Would've been nice if we didn't drop that extra point against TOR.
Is there a route into the playoffs? Yes.
Would've been nice if we didn't drop that extra point against TOR.
BondraTime
Registered User
Yes they do. Read the title of the thread.
Is there a route? Yes, going 19-1 and hoping other teams lose.
Is there a legit chance? Not even remotely close, we’re currently sitting at a mathematically derived 0.3% chance at the playoffs.
