Speculation: Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs

[Cosmix]

No chance
My hope is Dorion is planning to set the team (defense in particular) to compete after the expansion draft shakeup passes

My hope is Dorion is not here then.

 

[Cosmix]

It’s a different kinda year guys because of the divisional play. I don’t know how to explain it.. it’s pretty simple:

if we beat the teams ahead of us we would make the playoffs and we just so happen to play the right blend of teams to finish the year here. It’s the perfect storm.

no one is saying we are actually going to run the table and make the playoffs. But with the unique setup this year anything is actually possible and we are not out of it yet.

Anything is not possible. The odds are against the Senators making the playoffs.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

SensChirp is that you?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think we should change the thread title.. from
Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs

to

Senators Still a Long Shot At Playoffs

 

[LuckyPierre]

The Hamburglar run of 20-1-2 involved the following factors:

- Our top two goalies getting injured and a goalie battling for an NHL job running with his chance
- Phillips breaking the all-time Ottawa GP record and being LTIR'd out of the lineup immediately at the outset of the run
- Two of our three kids (Stone and Hoffman) elevating to star status
- Karlsson playing out of his mind

Not that it's a template that needs to be followed, but there are some elements of those factors that are present with the current group:

- Our starting goalies heavily contributed to our poor start and are out of the picture for now, while our depth chart goalies are playing well. Need that to continue
- Stepan could be the 'addition by subtraction' piece like Phillips was (5-14-1 with him, 7-6-3 record without him)
- Batherson and Stutzle have shown stretches of dominance, but need to produce consistently
- Chabot has not been good enough defensively, and has much less support than Karlsson had. The group needs to tighten up

If Pinto and JBD thrive in Ottawa, they could push vets out and elevate the group as well.

Not much of a chance to make it, but it would have to start with sweeping the remainder against the bubble teams at a minimum.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

this topic is absolutely insane

 

[aragorn]

Yea, I don't see it as possible, not with this group at this time. There should be a lot of changes too after the TDL & the team will need some time to get organized & jell after that. I think the time is running out in a 56 game schedule for the team to make a playoff push, remember Murray & Hogberg are getting healthy & will play some more games to finish the season & who knows how that will turn out. Hopefully for the sake of the team & themselves they bounce back but no guarantees about that.

 

[playasRus]

I was, however, pleasantly surprised to see that the Sens are not at the bottom of the league. I do see us finishing outside of the bottom 5 this season. Not sure if good considering another top3 pick is nice, but with scouting and junior leagues being in disarray, might be able to snag some gems in top 5-10 range anyways.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

At this point, I’d rather win some games and built some confidence than finish with a top 3 pick.

Also, no chance at the playoffs. It’s very unlikely, unless the Sens only lose 3-5 games to end the season.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I was, however, pleasantly surprised to see that the Sens are not at the bottom of the league. I do see us finishing outside of the bottom 5 this season. Not sure if good considering another top3 pick is nice, but with scouting and junior leagues being in disarray, might be able to snag some gems in top 5-10 range anyways.

We might move up 1 spot and still be in the bottom 5 .. but I have my doubts . I think we finish where we are right now..

2020-21 28
2019-20 30
2018-19 31
2017-18 30
2016-17 12 Conference finals G7 Dorion inherited this team and his era begins

 

[Cosmix]

View attachment 413918

We might move up 1 spot and still be in the bottom 5 .. but I have my doubts . I think we finish where we are right now..

2020-21 28
2019-20 30
2018-19 31
2017-18 30
2016-17 12 Conference finals G7 Dorion inherited this team and his era begins

Isn't this behavior “inconsistent” with the core values of the Senators hockey organization?

 

[Chabot84]

First step blank MTL 3-0-0

If they don’t do that then yeah it’s over.

 

[topshelf15]

Another top 5 pick is what the team needs...Dont want to make the playoffs until we are ready to do something in them

 

[DJB]

Before we all freak out let’s look at the data, let’s look at who we play for the rest of the season.. it’s setup for the perfect storm:

We play:

MTL 5x (could catch 10 points)
WPG 5x (could catch 10 points)
VAN 4x (could catch 8 points)
CGY 2x (could catch 4 points)

Now the problem games:

Luckily these teams should also be busy beating up on the other teams.

EDM 2x
TOR 2x

So as you can see if we ran the table here and got hot...

I wouldn’t say playoffs are off the table yet we play the right teams the right amount of times to still have a legit shot here.

Things can get exciting if we can blank MTL 3-0-0 over the next 3 games and start this rally. They are lucky they got the first game delayed or else it could be 4-0-0 and put a stamp on it.

anyways.. just thought I’d make this thread in case we get hot here starting with MTL.

Id imagine they are looking at similar data right now and letting our boys know we aren’t out of this yet.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Similar chance to the Black Knight.

 

[Micklebot]

Similar chance to the Black Knight.

We'll bite their ankles!

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Dont want to make the playoffs until we are ready to do something in them

Letting a young team get a taste of what it's like would be a good thing but yes we are a bit away from doing serious damage in the playoffs IMO

 

[topshelf15]

Letting a young team get a taste of what it's like would be a good thing but yes we are a bit away from doing serious damage in the playoffs IMO

For sure,the kids need to grow,and we need to put more pieces around them....Just waiting to see if EM keeps his word this time

 

[JD1]

Can we just close this thread?

 

[Chabot84]

Can we just close this thread?

Yeah, if they don’t blank MTL 3-0-0

Edmonton will hopefully do their job tonight and beat up on MTL in regulation and then set us up against a tired team on a back to back. Could be a rather quick 8 point swing here.

 

[Chabot84]

Vancouver plays:

Flames 4x ——- 2-2-0
Winnipeg 3x ——- 1-2-0
Oilers 5x ———- 2-3-0
Toronto 4x ——— 1-3-0
Ottawa 4x ——— 0-4-0

Projected record (in the scenario that Ottawa runs table on them)

I’m wondering if we even need to completely run the table to pass these teams since they have so many games against the top 3 teams in division... just a food for thought.

I’ll do MTL and Calgary later here. Sometimes it helps to visualize.. their schedules matter, ours is much easier.

 

[NyQuil]

To be honest, I thought someone just bumped a post from 2010.

 

[bacon25]

If they for some reason did make it into the playoffs, I'll put money down on them being SC winners, because for them to make it into the playoffs everyone on the team will be running on all cylinders.

 

[Jorge Garcia]

Yes, if we go .800 down the stretch, there’s a slim possibility. That’s an extremely, extremely, extremely, extremely long shot to happen.

If we go 17-4 down the stretch (obviously not likely), we’d need the Habs to go 11-13-1 down the stretch as well, much worse than their current record.

It’s not just us needing to go on an unrealistic run, we need other teams seasons to go south as well.

Playoffs are not realistic whatsoever, unfortunately. It certainly isn’t a legit shot.

Sens are not going 17-4. But the Habs are a study in mediocrity and fully capable of going 11-13-1 down the stretch. They've had a losing record after feasting on a hot start and a lot of loser points early on.

 

[Xspyrit]

We were basically eliminated from the playoffs after 10 games... and were 2-12-1 after 15 games in a 56 games season (27% of games played)

Habs (4th spot) are on pace for 67 pts. To reach 67 points, we would have needed 62 pts in 41 games, or something like 30-9-2

Sure, everything is possible but looking at this roster (and particularly defense), the chances that it would happen were extremely low. Heck, I would say it was already the case before the first game was played. We had Derek Stepan, Chris Tierney and a 21 y/o green rookie as our top-9 centers for Christ's sake. Nikita Zaitsev, Mike Reilly and Erik Gubranson are three of our top-4 D-men for Mary's sake.

No idea why this thread exists.

View attachment 413918

We might move up 1 spot and still be in the bottom 5 .. but I have my doubts . I think we finish where we are right now..

2020-21 28
2019-20 30
2018-19 31
2017-18 30
2016-17 12 Conference finals G7 Dorion inherited this team and his era begins

Stop being so negative!