Speculation: Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

well let’s break it down into pieces

do you think this current team as it is right now COULD beat Montreal 5 times in our last 5 games against them??

I realize there is a lot more to it.

I personally think we COULD do it. Doesn’t mean that we will it just means our game tonight is important if we want any shot at playoffs this year

yeah we need lots of little pieces to happen all together but if you just break it down. Every little piece is doable. We would have zero shot right now if this was a regular season.. it’s only because we play all the teams we trail muiltiple times (because of covid) that playoffs could still be attained.

this thread is gonna take a beating because our next 5 games are:

MTL - must win
MTL - must win
EDM - points are bonus
EDM - points are bonus
TOR - points are bonus
WPG - must win

the important games are against MTL and to a lesser extent WPG any points we acquire against Toronto and EDM are just bonus they are not needed to make playoffs imo.

but then we only play Toronto one more time and the rest of the schedule is all against beatable teams that we need to beat anyways to make the playoffs!

I do not and I apologize for prompting you to take the time to draft this up for all the scenario's involved.

I think the notion is absurd from a statistical point of view and I flat out don't see a team anywhere near capable of reeling off the wins required. Granted I didn't think the Hamburgler run was possible either, but at least that team had some charm and talent that you could see it building up to something special.

 

[Xspyrit]

Here is the other thing too.. that site will update our chances after every win. So eventually if we win enough games that site would agree with me.

My goal is not to be a debbie downer but even if we win 10 games in a row, we'd still probably be under 10% chance, unless of course one of the top-4 teams also lose 10 in a row. I don't see these 2 events happening and certainly not BOTH

10 wins a row would bring us to a 22-20-4 record... 0.521%... 86 pts pace, usually that's not playoffs quality, like not even close.

So can you at least wait that we go on a big winning streak before talking about this? I mean, it's just not realistic at this moment.

But yeah, if we win 18 of the last 20 we might have a chance, still just a 0.571 W%, which is a 94 pts pace. You realize that if we win 18 of the last 20, it puts us as having a borderline chance?

You do whatever you want of course, but people are going to call you out on this

 

[NyQuil]

I do not and I apologize for prompting you to take the time to draft this up for all the scenario's involved.

I think the notion is absurd from a statistical point of view and I flat out don't see a team anywhere near capable of reeling off the wins required. Granted I didn't think the Hamburgler run was possible either, but at least that team had some charm and talent that you could see it building up to something special.

A major difference IMO is that we had a lot of veteran contributing players on that team IIRC whereas I think our young core is starting to hit that rookie wall, particularly since we are playing more desperate teams with a shot at the post-season.

 

[Chabot84]

My goal is not to be a debbie downer but even if we win 10 games in a row, we'd still probably be under 10% chance, unless of course one of the top-4 teams also lose 10 in a row. I don't see these 2 events happening and certainly not BOTH

10 wins a row would bring us to a 22-20-4 record... 0.521%... 86 pts pace, usually that's not playoffs quality, like not even close.

So can you at least wait that we go on a big winning streak before talking about this? I mean, it's just not realistic at this moment.

But yeah, if we win 18 of the last 20 we might have a chance, still just a 0.571 W%, which is a 94 pts pace. You realize that if we win 18 of the last 20, it puts us as having a borderline chance?

You do whatever you want of course, but people are going to call you out on this

Yeah for sure it’s a long shot.

I will keep this short: Use MTL as an example

we play them 5 times. Let’s say we beat them all 5 times. That’s 10 points we gain on them.

That puts us 1 point behind them right now while they have 4 games in hand. Still not a small feat but it’s a much different picture.

I have referenced MTL schedule in previous posts here:

Montreal Plays:

Oilers 6x ——— 2-4-0
Senators 5x ——- 0-5-0
Toronto 6x ——— 2-4-0
Winnipeg 3x ——— 1-1-1
Calgary 5x ——— 3-2-0
Vancouver 0x ——— 0-0-0

Projected Record over remaining games if Ottawa runs the table on them:

8-16-1 good for 17 or so more points depending on loser points involved.

Now let’s add this onto MTL current record of 14-8-9 (they sure have a lot of loser points)

=

22-24-10 good for 54 points. (Edit: error corrected)

There is 56 games in the season meaning Ottawa which currently has only 28 points would need to grab another 27 points to beat out MTL. 10 of those would have already been attained by running the table on Montreal in 5 games. That means Ottawa would need another 17 points over their remaining 15 games against the rest of the league.





Im just pointing some things out, this isn’t like a normal season.

look how many loser points MTL has. And yes they already beat the Oilers once since I wrote that lol

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

A major difference IMO is that we had a lot of veteran contributing players on that team IIRC whereas I think our young core is starting to hit that rookie wall, particularly since we are playing more desperate teams with a shot at the post-season.

Good point. Our youth at that time was sort of taking off and trending upwards, along with a decent group of vets capable of some heavy lifting. The makeup of the current team is very much in a different place and the ups live and die from the performance of the youth almost exclusively.

Either way, comparing it to a near impossible run is probably pointless. That was literally a once in a lifetime type run that may go down as the greatest stretch of hockey a Senators team ever plays, luck included.

 

[Chabot84]

I do not and I apologize for prompting you to take the time to draft this up for all the scenario's involved.

I think the notion is absurd from a statistical point of view and I flat out don't see a team anywhere near capable of reeling off the wins required. Granted I didn't think the Hamburgler run was possible either, but at least that team had some charm and talent that you could see it building up to something special.

This is true that was our team starting to break out and this current roster is no where near on the same level.

Either way. 1 win at a time here has to start tonight! In regulation.

 

[Chabot84]

My goal is not to be a debbie downer but even if we win 10 games in a row, we'd still probably be under 10% chance, unless of course one of the top-4 teams also lose 10 in a row. I don't see these 2 events happening and certainly not BOTH

10 wins a row would bring us to a 22-20-4 record... 0.521%... 86 pts pace, usually that's not playoffs quality, like not even close.

So can you at least wait that we go on a big winning streak before talking about this? I mean, it's just not realistic at this moment.

But yeah, if we win 18 of the last 20 we might have a chance, still just a 0.571 W%, which is a 94 pts pace. You realize that if we win 18 of the last 20, it puts us as having a borderline chance?

You do whatever you want of course, but people are going to call you out on this

I honestly think the one thing that people are forgetting is that if we were to win 10 games in a row not only is it updating our chances but it’s also downgrading the chances of the teams we beat which just so happen to all be teams we are trying to catch. Like look at the schedule man. The schedule is literally built for us to run a train here. (If we could)

Every win for a worth double right we rob the team we beat of 2 points they could have had and lower their maximum points for the year while adding 2 points to our own.

that’s MTL 3 times
WPG 2 times
Calgary 2 times
Oilers and Toronto don’t count but taking points from them would be HUGE

just in that 10 game span. The standings would look completely different.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This is true that was our team starting to break out and this current roster is no where near on the same level.

Either way. 1 win at a time here has to start tonight! In regulation.

Enjoy the games regardless!

 

[OD99]

Nowhere in this thread does it say we are likely to make the playoffs.

The title of the thread says Legitimate Chance and that is what most would argue with you on. There is nothing legitimate about it, it is a statistically improbable outcome.

Any team with 0.3% chance and requiring absolutley everything to go right would also not have a legitimate chance but we are particularly bad in areas that are vitally important with team D at the top of that list.

I hope we win every game and make the playoffs but it still wouldn't mean it was a legitimate chance.

 

[Chabot84]

The title of the thread says Legitimate Chance and that is what most would argue with you on. There is nothing legitimate about it, it is a statistically improbable outcome.

Any team with 0.3% chance and requiring absolutley everything to go right would also not have a legitimate chance but we are particularly bad in areas that are vitally important with team D at the top of that list.

I hope we win every game and make the playoffs but it still wouldn't mean it was a legitimate chance.

Fair.

 

[Xspyrit]

I honestly think the one thing that people are forgetting is that if we were to win 10 games in a row not only is it updating our chances but it’s also downgrading the chances of the teams we beat which just so happen to all be teams we are trying to catch. Like look at the schedule man. The schedule is literally built for us to run a train here. (If we could)

Every win for a worth double right we rob the team we beat of 2 points they could have had and lower their maximum points for the year while adding 2 points to our own.

that’s MTL 3 times
WPG 2 times
Calgary 2 times
Oilers and Toronto don’t count but taking points from them would be HUGE

just in that 10 game span. The standings would look completely different.

ok I don't want to break your bubble... Just make sure to NOT watch the games.

 

[BondraTime]

Team hasn’t won more than 3 in a row in 4 years and here we are talking about running the table with 20 games left

 

[Chabot84]

Team hasn’t won more than 3 in a row in 4 years and here we are talking about running the table with 20 games left

The sparks gonna have to start in the third

 

[BondraTime]

The sparks gonna have to start in the third

Spark could save them this game. The season has been over for the past month and a half, no spark is saving that.

 

[Xspyrit]

Not finishing bottom-2 for the first time in 4 years would already be quite the accomplishment

BABY STEPS

 

[Chabot84]

Not finishing bottom-2 for the first time in 4 years would already be quite the accomplishment

BABY STEPS

Yeah this thread is about to get massacred and locked up I know. Maybe we just let her die and in the 0.3% chance we hit paydirt we can revive her for fun but honestly.. having MTL beat the Oilers and then beat us tonight.. it was now or never kinda thing.. we can’t really afford this loss unfortunately.

 

[topshelf15]

So if we dont win this game its over???

 

[topshelf15]

Close this thread our guys are sleepwalking tonight...

 

[Chabot84]

I thought it would be fun if we won a couple games and the Oilers stomped MTL like they were supposed to. You guys can close it if you want.. I would just let it die just in case so we can bring it back up.

 

[LTIR]

So if we dont win this game its over???

As over as over can be.
This was a jinx thread otherwise you guys had it

 

[Chabot84]

Close this thread our guys are sleepwalking tonight...

Honestly this doesn’t look like a team who think they have any shot at playoffs. Period. They don’t even care they are losing. I can’t control that. I was just playing with math.

 

[BondraTime]

Honestly this doesn’t look like a team who think they have any shot at playoffs. Period. They don’t even care they are losing. I can’t control that. I was just playing with math.

Obviously, they are able to look at the math correctly.

 

[Chabot84]

Obviously, they are able to look at the math correctly.

lol ok. I know most people on message boards are a bunch of super geniuses. I’m willing to back down and admit this team can’t compete but I’m not gonna back down on the math combined with everyone’s schedules. It was a super long shot but Ottawa has an extremely favourable schedule when compared to their opponents and could make the playoffs from here a lot easier then with a regular season schedule. It doesn’t bother me when people can’t see what I see, I’m used to it. It’s a regular part of my day to day.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

lol ok. I know most people on message boards are a bunch of super geniuses. I’m willing to back down and admit this team can’t compete but I’m not gonna back down on the math combined with everyone’s schedules. It was a super long shot but Ottawa has an extremely favourable schedule when compared to their opponents and could make the playoffs from here a lot easier then with a regular season schedule. It doesn’t bother me when people can’t see what I see, I’m used to it. It’s a regular part of my day to day.

Super Long Shot <> Legit Shot

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Better chance at getting the first overall pick than actually making the playoffs this year or even next year.