Speculation: Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs

[BondraTime]

Vancouver plays:

Flames 4x ——- 2-2-0
Winnipeg 3x ——- 1-2-0
Oilers 5x ———- 2-3-0
Toronto 4x ——— 1-3-0
Ottawa 4x ——— 0-4-0

Projected record (in the scenario that Ottawa runs table on them)

I’m wondering if we even need to completely run the table to pass these teams since they have so many games against the top 3 teams in division... just a food for thought.

I’ll do MTL and Calgary later here. Sometimes it helps to visualize.. their schedules matter, ours is much easier.

We do.

You can eliminate Calgary and Vancouver, they are irrelevant in the playoff hunt for us. Even if we pass them, which is still unlikely, we are still far out of the playoffs.

It's been said so many times in this thread, but seems it's not getting through. Zero point in discussing playoffs.

The probabilities for the playoffs using all the teams remaining schedules have already been mathematically calculated for you already. You don't need to visualise anything.

Leafs - 99.7%
Jets - 99.7%
Oilers - 97.7%
Habs - 90.8%

Flames - 8.1%
Canucks - 3.9%

Sens - 0.1 %

Would take more than the Sens running the table, would take a drastic drop in points % from the Habs along with the Sens getting 35+/40 of out remaining points

 

[OD99]

This almost feels like trolling at this point...

Can I start a thread about the Easter Bunny being a late FA find to put us over the top? She is the coveted #1C we desperately need!

 

[pt_mck]

If Dorion properly addressed the D last offseason we would be in playoffs right now.

But this could bode better for us to acquire another top pick and then improve even more next year.

Dorion hasn't addressed the D in 3 years. Why start now.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Dorion hasn't addressed the D in 3 years. Why start now.

Maybe picking up Gostisbere for free could help but it wont help that OTT basically needs to play .850W% to get in

 

[LTIR]

Next week or so is huge. If Oilers do their part and OTT wins the 2 games vs Habs then it's season on for you guys.

Lose the next 2 to Habs then might as well shut this thread down.

 

[Chabot84]

We do.

You can eliminate Calgary and Vancouver, they are irrelevant in the playoff hunt for us. Even if we pass them, which is still unlikely, we are still far out of the playoffs.

It's been said so many times in this thread, but seems it's not getting through. Zero point in discussing playoffs.

The probabilities for the playoffs using all the teams remaining schedules have already been mathematically calculated for you already. You don't need to visualise anything.

Leafs - 99.7%
Jets - 99.7%
Oilers - 97.7%
Habs - 90.8%

Flames - 8.1%
Canucks - 3.9%

Sens - 0.1 %

Would take more than the Sens running the table, would take a drastic drop in points % from the Habs along with the Sens getting 35+/40 of out remaining points

I don’t agree with their math. My math is better for sure. You think MTL can keep propping their point percentage up with loser points? Time will tell but they look like bottom feeders to me.


Montreal Plays:

Oilers 6x ——— 2-4-0
Senators 5x ——- 0-5-0
Toronto 6x ——— 2-4-0
Winnipeg 3x ——— 1-1-1
Calgary 5x ——— 3-2-0
Vancouver 0x ——— 0-0-0

Projected Record over remaining games if Ottawa runs the table on them:

8-16-1 good for 17 or so more points depending on loser points involved.

Now let’s add this onto MTL current record of 14-8-9 (they sure have a lot of loser points)

=

22-24-10 good for 54 points. (Edit: error corrected)

There is 56 games in the season meaning Ottawa which currently has only 28 points would need to grab another 27 points to beat out MTL. 10 of those would have already been attained by running the table on Montreal in 5 games. That means Ottawa would need another 17 points over their remaining 15 games against the rest of the league.

This is attainable.

Montreal is in trouble IMHO they have a tough tough schedule it looks easier because of the 5 games against Ottawa... have Ottawa beat them in those 5 games and we can have a clear shot at passing MTL.

How you say Vancouver and Calgary are irrelevant at this point I don’t understand but so far we can show that MTL and Vancouver have some tough schedules ahead with a lot of games against Ottawa.

We control our own destiny here.

Salute.

And no this isn’t a troll job this is just math based on the Sens running the table on certain teams to show that we truly aren’t as out of it as one would believe.

 

[BondraTime]

I don’t agree with their math. My math is better for sure. You think MTL can keep propping their point percentage up with loser points? Time will tell but they look like bottom feeders to me.


Montreal Plays:

Oilers 6x ——— 2-4-0
Senators 5x ——- 0-5-0
Toronto 6x ——— 2-4-0
Winnipeg 5x ——— 2-2-1
Calgary 5x ——— 3-2-0
Vancouver 0x ——— 0-0-0

Projected Record over remaining games if Ottawa runs the table on them:

9-17-1 good for 19 or so more points depending on loser points involved.

Now let’s add this onto MTL current record of 14-8-9 (they sure have a lot of loser points)

=

23-25-10 good for 56 points. (Edit: something is f***y here as that adds up to 58 games have to find the error lmao)

There is 56 games in the season meaning Ottawa which currently has only 28 points would need to grab another 29 points to beat out MTL. 10 of those would have already been attained by running the table on Montreal in 5 games. That means Ottawa would need another 19 points over their remaining 15 games against the rest of the league.

This is attainable.

Montreal is in trouble IMHO they have a tough tough schedule it looks easier because of the 5 games against Ottawa... have Ottawa beat them in those 5 games and we can have a clear shot at passing MTL.

How you say Vancouver and Calgary are irrelevant at this point I don’t understand but so far we can show that MTL and Vancouver have some tough schedules ahead with a lot of games against Ottawa.

We control our own destiny here.

Salute.

And no this isn’t a troll job this is just math based on the Sens running the table on certain teams to show that we truly aren’t as out of it as one would believe.

It must be a troll job, really only thing that makes sense.

The alternative isn’t a good look for sure.

 

[Chabot84]

It must be a troll job, really only thing that makes sense.

The alternative isn’t a good look for sure.

Im not sure how you can’t see it when it’s right in front of your face?

 

[SensFactor]

If we made the playoffs this season, it would be greater than the Hamburglar run. Unlike that Sens team, we don't have the team to do it IMO.

 

[BondraTime]

Im not sure how you can’t see it when it’s right in front of your face?

I really can’t tell if you’re still just frigging around. Nobody can be this oblivious.

Do I use:

These projections that are made using all the teams schedules, that have done the mathematical work to get the playoff odds of each team. We are currently sitting at a 1/1000 chance.

Or :

You just listing who the teams are playing, without any mathematical projections and probabilities?

 

[Good in Osgoode]

 

[Chabot84]

Well that was a bad start

 

[bacon25]

Montreal looks well rested and ready to take over the North division. They outplayed Edmonton in every facet of the game last night and they get Toffoli and Stall back in a week.

 

[NyQuil]

Montreal looks well rested and ready to take over the North division. They outplayed Edmonton in every facet of the game last night and they get Toffoli and Stall back in a week.

Meh, they'll find a way to fall on their faces as they have done throughout the year.

Every time someone anoints a team on the rise in the North, they suddenly suck.

 

[Chabot84]

Meh, they'll find a way to fall on their faces as they have done throughout the year.

Every time someone anoints a team on the rise in the North, they suddenly suck.

I was truly hoping the Oilers were going to spank them and destroy their spirits before the Ottawa game. Of course in good old Oilers fashion they always let me down! Even though we keep helping them out in the standings by beating Toronto for them lol

 

[NyQuil]

I was truly hoping the Oilers were going to spank them and destroy their spirits before the Ottawa game. Of course in good old Oilers fashion they always let me down! Even though we keep helping them out in the standings by beating Toronto for them lol

I’d rather see us with an opportunity to pop their balloon of sudden confidence

Don’t get me wrong, I can see any playoff team coming out of the North.

Unlike Edmonton however, we seem to play the Habs well more often than not.

 

[Chabot84]

Might as well track the records of each time here starting with Friday, the day this thread was created.

Hopefully Ottawa can start off with a win here against MTL tonight or else this favourable math towards them can disappear very quickly. This is only based on if the team steps up and acts NOW.

RECORDS:

Ottawa Senators 0-0-0

Montreal Canadians 1-0-0
Vancouver Canucks 0-0-0
Calgary Flames 1-2-0
Winnipeg Jets 2-2-0
Edmonton Oilers 1-0-1
Toronto Mapleleafs 2-1-0

 

[BondraTime]

Favourable math. I’ve heard it all.

 

[cudi]

lmao playoffs??

 

[Xspyrit]

I don’t agree with their math. My math is better for sure. You think MTL can keep propping their point percentage up with loser points? Time will tell but they look like bottom feeders to me.

This is your first post I have started to read in this thread outside of OP but I stopped right there

How could anyone disagree with 2+2=4 ? You understand how these probabilities are calculated right?

Obviously, if the Sens win all their remaining games they'll make the playoffs but the thing here is that's it's very very unlikely, which is why it transpires as a very low % mathematical chance.

What else is there to say? Do we need a thread about this? You can just post in GDTs that you still believe in playoffs... I mean, it's totally your right.

 

[Chabot84]

This is your first post I have started to read in this thread outside of OP but I stopped right there

How could anyone disagree with 2+2=4 ? You understand how these probabilities are calculated right?

Obviously, if the Sens win all their remaining games they'll make the playoffs but the thing here is that's it's very very unlikely, which is why it transpires as a very low % mathematical chance.

What else is there to say? Do we need a thread about this? You can just post in GDTs that you still believe in playoffs... I mean, it's totally your right.

If your not gonna read anything why bother posting in the thread? I’m honestly not sure why this thread has so many people so bothered.

Nowhere in this thread does it say we are likely to make the playoffs.

I do think we have a higher then 0.3% chance though or whatever that pro site says which I have shown for anyone with logical thinking to see.

would I put money on it? Hell no. But track it in a thread for fun in the unlikely chance we go on a run here? Sure why not.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Beyond the almost impossible statistical improbability, who the heck actually thinks this team is capable of going on the insane run it would take?

 

[Chabot84]

This is your first post I have started to read in this thread outside of OP but I stopped right there

How could anyone disagree with 2+2=4 ? You understand how these probabilities are calculated right?

Obviously, if the Sens win all their remaining games they'll make the playoffs but the thing here is that's it's very very unlikely, which is why it transpires as a very low % mathematical chance.

What else is there to say? Do we need a thread about this? You can just post in GDTs that you still believe in playoffs... I mean, it's totally your right.

Here is the other thing too.. that site will update our chances after every win. So eventually if we win enough games that site would agree with me.

 

[Chabot84]

Beyond the almost impossible statistical improbability, who the heck actually thinks this team is capable of going on the insane run it would take?

well let’s break it down into pieces

do you think this current team as it is right now COULD beat Montreal 5 times in our last 5 games against them??

I realize there is a lot more to it.

I personally think we COULD do it. Doesn’t mean that we will it just means our game tonight is important if we want any shot at playoffs this year

yeah we need lots of little pieces to happen all together but if you just break it down. Every little piece is doable. We would have zero shot right now if this was a regular season.. it’s only because we play all the teams we trail muiltiple times (because of covid) that playoffs could still be attained.

this thread is gonna take a beating because our next 5 games are:

MTL - must win
MTL - must win
EDM - points are bonus
EDM - points are bonus
TOR - points are bonus
WPG - must win

the important games are against MTL and to a lesser extent WPG any points we acquire against Toronto and EDM are just bonus they are not needed to make playoffs imo.

but then we only play Toronto one more time and the rest of the schedule is all against beatable teams that we need to beat anyways to make the playoffs!

 

[Crosside]

I hope if we lose tonight , we close this thread