Speculation: Senators Still Have Legit Shot At Playoffs

[OD99]

It doesn’t bother me when people can’t see what I see, I’m used to it. It’s a regular part of my day to day.

1. That is one of the saddest things I have seen written here and genuinely hope you don't feel that way.

2. We all saw what you saw and realized it was about the farthest thing from legit there is.

If you had posted something similar to, "hey if we go on a Hamburgler steak with this type of schedule we may make it interesting in a couple of weeks" I am sure people would have played along and we all would have supported a run if we went on one.

But the actual reality, the bare factual harsh statistics showed we had a fraction of 1% chance. That is without the eye test showing we are a straight up bad team with no chance at going on a run.

The optimism is wasted on what we can do in the win column this year but there are clearly some very good parts that will be significant pieces when we have more talent.

See you next season...maybe the one after and will join you on the playoff watch.

 

[topshelf15]

We blew it.....

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

lol ok. I know most people on message boards are a bunch of super geniuses. I’m willing to back down and admit this team can’t compete but I’m not gonna back down on the math combined with everyone’s schedules. It was a super long shot but Ottawa has an extremely favourable schedule when compared to their opponents and could make the playoffs from here a lot easier then with a regular season schedule. It doesn’t bother me when people can’t see what I see, I’m used to it. It’s a regular part of my day to day.

Timothy Leary fan?

 

[bacon25]

lol ok. I know most people on message boards are a bunch of super geniuses. I’m willing to back down and admit this team can’t compete but I’m not gonna back down on the math combined with everyone’s schedules. It was a super long shot but Ottawa has an extremely favourable schedule when compared to their opponents and could make the playoffs from here a lot easier then with a regular season schedule. It doesn’t bother me when people can’t see what I see, I’m used to it. It’s a regular part of my day to day.

Cheer up emo kid. I see what you see, but you gotta stop living and dying on what people write on the internet.

 

[Back in Black]

GO SENS GO

 

[Big Muddy]

Team hasn’t won more than 3 in a row in 4 years and here we are talking about running the table with 20 games left

Senators have a much better shot at a top 4 pick in this upcoming draft!

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I’m down for a playoff run personally. Even if it’s a first round exit.

 

[NyQuil]

I’m down for a playoff run personally. Even if it’s a first round exit.

I'd like to see that as the goal for next season, even if the odds are still not in their favour.

I think most people are giving them a pass for this year and rightly so.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I'd like to see that as the goal for next season, even if the odds are still not in their favour.

I think most people are giving them a pass for this year and rightly so.

Oh realistically I don’t think it will happen this or next year.

 

[NyQuil]

Oh realistically I don’t think it will happen this or next year.

Yeah, I would like to see some accountability for wins and losses though, unlike this year.

 

[Rals]

My playoffs would be knocking the Habs into 5th

 

[Chabot84]

My playoffs would be knocking the Habs into 5th

we can do that!!!


If the Sens can go 3-3-0 over their next 6 games against WPG, EDM and TOR

+6 points

Their next 7 games would be against Calgary and Vancouver* (if they play) and 1 against MTL
Then their next 3 games are against MTL (x2) and WPG (x1)

If they went 9-1-0 in that stretch making sure the loss isn’t against MTL and preferably against WPG.

+18 points

They would catch 8 points on Vancouver
They would catch 6 points on MTL

Using MTL current PTS percentage of 0.6 they are on track to pickup 26 more points this season. Now minus off the Sens beating them 3 more times in this scenario and that leaves them only picking up another 20 points and finishing the season with: 61 Points

Meanwhile the Sens will have grabbed another 24 points on the season with two games left to play.
Their points would be: 54 points

Their opponents for the remaining 2 games would be:

Winnipeg and Toronto (hard games) with a max of 58 points on the year.

So now let’s take a look at MTL schedule for the remainder of the year (I will slot in some favourable predictions)

EDM - L
TOR - L
WPG - L
WPG - W
TOR - L
CGY - W
CGY - W
OTT - L
EDM - L
EDM - L
CGY - W
CGY - W
CGY - W
TOR - L
WPG - L
OTT - L
TOR - W
OTT - L
TOR - L
TOR - L
EDM - W
EDM - L

So as you can see when you paint out MTL schedule and plug in the auto losses against the Sens for this to work.

This would have them grabbing only 16 points and maxing them out at 57 points for the year. I could honestly see them grabbing even less points then that. Now of course if they just lose in overtime all the time as they have been doing then they would be super hard to catch.

So here is the near impossible picture of how the Sens could still today make the playoffs.

I’ll keep watching and updating the thread so long as both the Sens and MTL behave within the math according to the patterns above.

Cheers and happy holidays!

and just so everyone knows this thread is just meant for fun, I just felt under attack by a few and I just thought it would be fun and interesting to track down the stretch here just in case we went on a winning streak.. the win against MTL was encouraging. I fully understand we prob won’t make the playoffs and I agree the use of the word “legit” in the thread title was a poor choice.

 

[NyQuil]

and just so everyone knows this thread is just meant for fun, I just felt under attack by a few and I just thought it would be fun and interesting to track down the stretch here just in case we went on a winning streak.. the win against MTL was encouraging. I fully understand we prob won’t make the playoffs and I agree the use of the word “legit” in the thread title was a poor choice.

You'd be amazed at the impact of the thread title on the subsequent discussion.

If I had a nickel for every time an amazing hockey play was described as "Goal/assist/shot/hit/fight/save/defensive play Of The Year" on the main board, and then the discussion in that thread deteriorated into identifying all the other plays that were better candidates for that award, I'd have a hell of a lot of nickels.

If they had simply entitled the thread, "What an amazing goal by X", the entire tenor of the discussion would have been different.

Calling this one "Senators Playoff Tracker" or some such probably wouldn't have driven as many people nuts.

 

[Chabot84]

Random Fact:

take away 6 of MTL loser points to put them at average for loser points for the division (3)

and they are actually playing at a 0.515 points percentage clip.

this would give them 24 more points to finish the season if they played at the same clip.

minus off the 3 games against Ottawa (pretending they lose those)

and applying this point clip to the remaining games:

That would give them 19 more points on the year having them finish at:

60 points. (Unlikely for Sens to tie this)

so we basically would need them to play at a 0.42 clip or under against other opponents and lose all 3 games against Ottawa to have any kind of shot.

this is from today on.. that loss to MTL was a killer. 2 huge points odds went down huge with that.

 

[Chabot84]

Team hasn’t won more than 3 in a row in 4 years and here we are talking about running the table with 20 games left

The funny part is that 3 game winning streaks is all we need, if we did a version of that for the rest of the year it would give us 4 more losses and as long as we made sure those losses weren’t against MTL (100%) and pref not VAN or CGY we could actually make the playoffs never winning more then 3
-4 in a row.

looking at the schedule two of the “streaks” would have to be 4 games in a row as they fall on MTL. If you count our previous win here as part of the streak.

 

[Chabot84]

Calgary loses last night to Toronto. Perfect for us. That was a huge game for us.

Tonight is a huge night for the Sens:

Edmonton vs MTL (this is a MUST win for Oilers)

from the Sens perspective of course.

Ottawa versus Winnipeg (This is a must win imo as we need to go AT LEAST 3-3-0 over our next 6 games against opponents such as WPG, EDM and TOR)

Things can get more interesting after tonight’s results.

Let’s see how it plays out.

 

[Crosside]

I just want the Sens lap one of Vancouver or Calgary. Would be a satisfied season for me

 

[Chabot84]

I just want the Sens lap one of Vancouver or Calgary. Would be a satisfied season for me

Set the goals small bro!!

Forgot to mention... hopefully Toronto spanks Calgary tonight too and makes your dreams come true!

All goes well and soon the talking heads will be talking about Sens playoff chances instead of Calgary like last night during the Toronto game (using the same reasons outlined in this thread due to unique covid season)

that would be step one.

 

[Chabot84]

I just want to point out that I was putting MTL at finishing the year with 57 points and they only ended up getting 59.

so as crazy as it all sounded MTL 100% did their part to try and allow another team into the playoffs.

Honestly the Sens sure have been impressive down the stretch, it was just too little too late.. if they started this streak the day this thread was made we could be looking at a playoff berth right now.

It feels good to be excited about next year. I’ll be cheering for the Oilers here in the playoffs!

 

[DanyHeatley]

4 Ws against Edm would have done it but we had no answer for McDonald’s and Leon’s