Sportsnet: Senators’ Dorion talks team’s payroll, off-season moves and 2019-20 optimism

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Variable26, Aug 7, 2019.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2005
    Messages:
    8,545
    Likes Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Seattle
    Personally, I think it's the opposite.

    Players with high IQ (like Stone) who don't rely on speed tend to be more productive into their later years (see: Pavelski, Giroux, Thornton, etc).

    Everyone loses speed. But the drop off will be much more severe for a guy like Duchene vs. Stone, and Stone thinks the game much better (because he's had to). The transition to being a 32+ year old player who can't rely on physical traits will be much easier for him.

    If Duchene loses speed, he's lost. If Stone loses speed, he's pretty much exactly the same.

    Karlsson, I think has both. It'll take a couple of years to adjust (like it did for the Gonchar's and Zubov's), but he'll be able to make that transition.
     
  2. bert

    bert Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2002
    Messages:
    19,782
    Likes Received:
    3,628
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Home Page:
    A well thought out and logical post with quality points that most people will agree with.
     
  3. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    5,714
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Stone is 27. Read the link i posted above

    How did Karlsson do in the playoffs on his side of the red line?
     
  4. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    5,714
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Trophy Points:
    139
    This is kind of like your Florida stuff that you post. Its dated. The article you are quoting is from 2014 and uses data fromas far back as the 97 98 season. The article I am linking to is from 2017 and uses data from 2008 to 2016. We keep hearing it is becoming a young man's game. You think maybe the difference in data sets would highlight that?

    But even going by what you are talking about

    Peak age for forwards is 28. Duchene is 28 and will turn 29 this season. Stone is 27.

    Peak age for D is 29. Karlsson is 29.

    Even with the dated data...these players are going to spend the heavy majority of their contracts on the downside of their primes.

    P.S. I've spent over 30 years in my career analyzing data and interpreting it. I work with a lot of very intelligent highly educated young "data scientists" (some with PhDs in the subject) and the common thread that unites them seems to be their education focuses on data extraction and not so much on data interpretation.

    The article I linked is far more current. It may have its' flaws however I'd need to dive into the data sets in detail to determine that. The article you linked is simply no longer statistically valid
     
  5. bert

    bert Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2002
    Messages:
    19,782
    Likes Received:
    3,628
    Trophy Points:
    232
    Home Page:
    Karlsson for a guy with half a groin was pretty damn good he set up the o.t winner to get the sharks past Vegas they never even get out of the first round without him.

    26 when they traded him actually. Your article was immediately disproved and all it takes is to watch Stone to realize how good he is. He isnt an average player he is a top 20 forward in the NHL.
     
  6. Calvin123

    Calvin123 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2006
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    36
    Trophy Points:
    61
    As someone else already pointed out, it's analysis is flawed. If it was accurate we'd see Stanley cup winning teams with average ages of 23, but we don't. In fact we frequently see the older more experienced teams beating younger "more skilled" teams when it counts. There are certainly risks to signing players to long UFA contracts, but taking those risks on the right players is absolutely necessary to building a winning team.

    If Duchene, Stone & Karlsson weren't the right players, what are the chances we will have a better 3 & how would you defined better?

    If the reason for trading them was that they weren't the right 3, why would you not make that decision early enough to allow a hockey trade to occur, e.g. a year or more before their contract expires?
     
  7. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2009
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    647
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Please let me know where zone starts, QoC, linemates, etc are factored in to that analysis and get back to me. 30 years ago (1989) most data analysis was considered reading a piece of paper so careful with your timelines as it affects credibility. We can debate credentials all day and I can assure you I'm qualified in this field.
     
  8. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    5,714
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Trophy Points:
    139
    I didn't say you weren't qualified. You wanted to start talking resumes...so I gave you some background on my resume.

    You quoted a dated article with very dated data sets that is still analyzing +/- which you believe is more relevant than a study analyzing more current data across a wider range of hockey analytics.

    There are most likely flaws in both studies. It's just the one I posted is a hell of a lot more current
     
  9. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2005
    Messages:
    5,714
    Likes Received:
    1,438
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Bert you're always on me about anything I post so this is no different. You disagree with me as a poster...you always do...take the time to read the different articles...
     
  10. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2006
    Messages:
    6,237
    Likes Received:
    2,610
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Whitehorse, Y.T.
    Other teams would have signed these guys regardless of age, at least some of them... this was another Ottawa Senators problem.

    Ottawa can't because they know the realities in Ottawa meant they'd never be able to surround them well enough and/or fast enough to bother. They would have been halfway through their contracts before management figured their way out of their mud.

    When you're spending so little, and you've already wasted what little you had available on your under performing role players, you've pretty much backed yourself in to a corner. Sign them and have a useless support cast around them destined to fail? Ya, why bother.

    Justify not signing, but the context of the situation still makes them look like dumb ****s that couldn't assess and manage a hockey team efficiently. All they did in the end was take the easiest option available in blowing it up and giving up until enough time passes for their mistakes to expire and to swing the talent pendulum after a few drafts. A child with a copy of NHL on PS4 could do what they did.
     
  11. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2009
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    647
    Trophy Points:
    109
    I'd love to see what setting you'd have to set the trade difficulty on to allow these to happen lol
     
    Gesus likes this.
  12. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,761
    Likes Received:
    1,234
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Ottawa, ON
    You'd have to add a new setting.

    Expert
    Hard
    Normal
    Easy
    Pierre Dorion

    If your difficulty is set to Pierre Dorion, all you have to do is take back some actual dollars and the trade will go through guaranteed.
     
    2CHAINZ, OttawaSenators11 and Gesus like this.
  13. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk & Dorion ruined everything

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2006
    Messages:
    6,237
    Likes Received:
    2,610
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Whitehorse, Y.T.
    Don't forget the free draft pick thrown in!
     
  14. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2005
    Messages:
    8,545
    Likes Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Seattle
    This idea that Stone, Duchene and Karlsson are old, or soon to decline, is asinine.

    Maybe it wouldn't have been smart to lock all 3 up for ~30million. But nobody's saying that. But one or two of them? Any other organization would have gotten it done.

    When was the last time a team won the cup with an all under 26 roster?
     
  15. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2009
    Messages:
    1,842
    Likes Received:
    647
    Trophy Points:
    109
    We have Anderson and hainsey, that’s our leadership
     
  16. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2005
    Messages:
    8,545
    Likes Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Seattle
    St.Louis has 28 year old Ryan O'Reilly locked up for 4 more seasons at 7.5 million, and they traded for him when he was 27 with 5 years left. They're also going to extend 29 year old Alex Pietrangelo to a long-term big money deal.

    The Boston Bruins once signed a 28 year-old Zdeno Chara to a 5 year deal at 7.5 million, and gave him another big contract when he was 34. They did the same with Patrice Bergeron.

    I'm glad we're not running our team like those loser organizations!
     
    RaMai, GrantLemons, Gesus and 2 others like this.
  17. armani

    armani Guy Likes

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2005
    Messages:
    7,290
    Likes Received:
    1,169
    Trophy Points:
    139
    EK65 did fabulously while he was with the Senators - won 2 Norrises, missed on a few he should have won.
     
  18. SpezDispenser

    SpezDispenser Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2007
    Messages:
    19,858
    Likes Received:
    740
    Trophy Points:
    169
    Home Page:
    Goodness gracious, a player's prime is debatable, but Karlsson is 100% NOT entering his prime. His decline has started and it will be amazing to watch SJ flail with that contract.

    Stone and Duchene's primes were probably 25 - so give or take, I'd agree, those two were horrific mistakes, or rather we never had a chance anyway most likely because of our inept management and idiot owner.

    I was talking about letting 90% of the veterans go and letting the kids take over the team ie Bichette, Vlad, etc.
     
  19. Peptic Balcers

    Peptic Balcers Registered User

    Joined:
    May 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,069
    Likes Received:
    799
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Location:
    Ottawa, Canada
    And "Bottle Service" Bobby Ryan
     
  20. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2010
    Messages:
    29,109
    Likes Received:
    6,485
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Karlsson's issue is staying healthy and not playing hurt. Watched a fair bit of him in SJ and after the first dozen of acclimating to a new team and before pulling his groin around game 60 there was no decline in his game.
     
  21. BK201

    BK201 Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    10,469
    Likes Received:
    164
    Trophy Points:
    111
    I like ryan xD actually think he would be a decent leader.
     
  22. Boud

    Boud Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2011
    Messages:
    9,575
    Likes Received:
    2,221
    Trophy Points:
    126
    Great guy, but has no confidence, I have a real hard time seeing him being a true leader.
     
  23. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,394
    Likes Received:
    362
    Trophy Points:
    94
    You can use the same reasoning to explain why no Stanley cups are won by teams with an average age of 30 or more. Also the average age of a team is about 27.1 years which means you have the same number of 22 year olds as 32 year olds.
    Bottom line is that a team that has a number of their players in their 30s better have some really good 21 and 22 year old players if they expect to win.
     
  24. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,394
    Likes Received:
    362
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Even if Karlsson , Duchene and Stone are in their prime right now they definitely won't be in 3 years let alone in 6 or 7. Signing guys at age 27 to 8 year deals is only OK if you win a cup or two but regardless it will come back to bite you.
     
  25. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2005
    Messages:
    8,545
    Likes Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Location:
    Seattle
    Well I mean, I hope the plan is to try and win the cup within the next 7 or 8 years. Having 2 of Karlsson, Duchene or Stone in their early 30s to complement Chabot, Tkachuk and Batherson would have been a great mix of veterans and young talent. (A strategy successful teams like Boston, Chicago and St.Louis utilize).

    But if the plan is to continue to suck indefinitely, then yes, trading all 3 was the right decision.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"