Sportsnet: Senators’ Dorion talks team’s payroll, off-season moves and 2019-20 optimism

[DaveMatthew]

Karlsson is not one of the best D in the game the past two years. He might rebound but he hasn't been near the top of the league since our cup run and his ankle injury

The league has a long history of high IQ average skaters that rely on IQ and positioning. Then you wake up one day and cannot get to the position you want to be in and you're done.

Duchene's skating can afford a decline and he can still be a quality player.

It seems we look at these 3 with completely opposite views

Personally, I think it's the opposite.

Players with high IQ (like Stone) who don't rely on speed tend to be more productive into their later years (see: Pavelski, Giroux, Thornton, etc).

Everyone loses speed. But the drop off will be much more severe for a guy like Duchene vs. Stone, and Stone thinks the game much better (because he's had to). The transition to being a 32+ year old player who can't rely on physical traits will be much easier for him.

If Duchene loses speed, he's lost. If Stone loses speed, he's pretty much exactly the same.

Karlsson, I think has both. It'll take a couple of years to adjust (like it did for the Gonchar's and Zubov's), but he'll be able to make that transition.

 

[bert]

Personally, I think it's the opposite.

Players with high IQ (like Stone) who don't rely on speed tend to be more productive into their later years (see: Pavelski, Giroux, Thornton, etc).

Everyone loses speed. But the drop off will be much more severe for a guy like Duchene vs. Stone, and Stone thinks the game much better (because he's had to). The transition to being a 32+ year old player who can't rely on physical traits will be much easier for him.

If Duchene loses speed, he's lost. If Stone loses speed, he's pretty much exactly the same.

Karlsson, I think has both. It'll take a couple of years to adjust (like it did for the Gonchar's and Zubov's), but he'll be able to make that transition.

A well thought out and logical post with quality points that most people will agree with.

 

[JD1]

Lol Stone is 26 years old, show me the statistical evidence that he is past his prime id LOVE to see how you are going to do this one. Thank god you are not running this team. Or wait, are you?



The bolded is absolutely incorrect.

Karlsson was 6th in ppg for D men while being plus 6 playing 24:29 a game. Then continued to lead the playoffs in ppg for defensemen for players that played more than 10 games.

Stone is 27. Read the link i posted above

How did Karlsson do in the playoffs on his side of the red line?

 

[JD1]

So you used an analysis that doesn't include survivorship in the league, doesn't account for players being moved up and down, doesn't account for sheltering of young players lol. P.S. I spent the first 12 years of my career doing data analysis and this is flawed work

Here's another one from a UBC prof not random blogger:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

I'll save you some time, here is the punchline:

James Brander of UBC's Sauder School of Business, is the lead author of a new study that puts the peak scoring age for NHL forwards at 28 and for defencemen, 29. NHL goaltenders show little change in performance based on age. (UBC)

Now, how old and what positions did Duchene, Stone and Karlsson fall in to?

So you used an analysis that doesn't include survivorship in the league, doesn't account for players being moved up and down, doesn't account for sheltering of young players lol. P.S. I spent the first 12 years of my career doing data analysis and this is flawed work

Here's another one from a UBC prof not random blogger:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

I'll save you some time, here is the punchline:

James Brander of UBC's Sauder School of Business, is the lead author of a new study that puts the peak scoring age for NHL forwards at 28 and for defencemen, 29. NHL goaltenders show little change in performance based on age. (UBC)

Now, how old and what positions did Duchene, Stone and Karlsson fall in to?

This is kind of like your Florida stuff that you post. Its dated. The article you are quoting is from 2014 and uses data fromas far back as the 97 98 season. The article I am linking to is from 2017 and uses data from 2008 to 2016. We keep hearing it is becoming a young man's game. You think maybe the difference in data sets would highlight that?

But even going by what you are talking about

Peak age for forwards is 28. Duchene is 28 and will turn 29 this season. Stone is 27.

Peak age for D is 29. Karlsson is 29.

Even with the dated data...these players are going to spend the heavy majority of their contracts on the downside of their primes.

P.S. I've spent over 30 years in my career analyzing data and interpreting it. I work with a lot of very intelligent highly educated young "data scientists" (some with PhDs in the subject) and the common thread that unites them seems to be their education focuses on data extraction and not so much on data interpretation.

The article I linked is far more current. It may have its' flaws however I'd need to dive into the data sets in detail to determine that. The article you linked is simply no longer statistically valid

 

[bert]

Stone is 27. Read the link i posted above

How did Karlsson do in the playoffs on his side of the red line?

Karlsson for a guy with half a groin was pretty damn good he set up the o.t winner to get the sharks past Vegas they never even get out of the first round without him.

26 when they traded him actually. Your article was immediately disproved and all it takes is to watch Stone to realize how good he is. He isnt an average player he is a top 20 forward in the NHL.

 

[Calvin123]

Read this article

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

It is pretty informative and also links to a lot of other analysis.

We've got one big ufa deal on the books and it is a problem contract. Most big long term ufa deals are problem contracts. The players that seem to buck that trend are the super elite with no mobility related injury history.

As someone else already pointed out, it's analysis is flawed. If it was accurate we'd see Stanley cup winning teams with average ages of 23, but we don't. In fact we frequently see the older more experienced teams beating younger "more skilled" teams when it counts. There are certainly risks to signing players to long UFA contracts, but taking those risks on the right players is absolutely necessary to building a winning team.

If Duchene, Stone & Karlsson weren't the right players, what are the chances we will have a better 3 & how would you defined better?

If the reason for trading them was that they weren't the right 3, why would you not make that decision early enough to allow a hockey trade to occur, e.g. a year or more before their contract expires?

 

[harrisb]

This is kind of like your Florida stuff that you post. Its dated. The article you are quoting is from 2014 and uses data fromas far back as the 97 98 season. The article I am linking to is from 2017 and uses data from 2008 to 2016. We keep hearing it is becoming a young man's game. You think maybe the difference in data sets would highlight that?

But even going by what you are talking about

Peak age for forwards is 28. Duchene is 28 and will turn 29 this season. Stone is 27.

Peak age for D is 29. Karlsson is 29.

Even with the dated data...these players are going to spend the heavy majority of their contracts on the downside of their primes.

P.S. I've spent over 30 years in my career analyzing data and interpreting it. I work with a lot of very intelligent highly educated young "data scientists" (some with PhDs in the subject) and the common thread that unites them seems to be their education focuses on data extraction and not so much on data interpretation.

The article I linked is far more current. It may have its' flaws however I'd need to dive into the data sets in detail to determine that. The article you linked is simply no longer statistically valid

Please let me know where zone starts, QoC, linemates, etc are factored in to that analysis and get back to me. 30 years ago (1989) most data analysis was considered reading a piece of paper so careful with your timelines as it affects credibility. We can debate credentials all day and I can assure you I'm qualified in this field.

 

[JD1]

Please let me know where zone starts, QoC, linemates, etc are factored in to that analysis and get back to me. 30 years ago (1989) most data analysis was considered reading a piece of paper so careful with your timelines as it affects credibility. We can debate credentials all day and I can assure you I'm qualified in this field.

I didn't say you weren't qualified. You wanted to start talking resumes...so I gave you some background on my resume.

You quoted a dated article with very dated data sets that is still analyzing +/- which you believe is more relevant than a study analyzing more current data across a wider range of hockey analytics.

There are most likely flaws in both studies. It's just the one I posted is a hell of a lot more current

 

[JD1]

Karlsson for a guy with half a groin was pretty damn good he set up the o.t winner to get the sharks past Vegas they never even get out of the first round without him.

26 when they traded him actually. Your article was immediately disproved and all it takes is to watch Stone to realize how good he is. He isnt an average player he is a top 20 forward in the NHL.

Bert you're always on me about anything I post so this is no different. You disagree with me as a poster...you always do...take the time to read the different articles...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Other teams would have signed these guys regardless of age, at least some of them... this was another Ottawa Senators problem.

Ottawa can't because they know the realities in Ottawa meant they'd never be able to surround them well enough and/or fast enough to bother. They would have been halfway through their contracts before management figured their way out of their mud.

When you're spending so little, and you've already wasted what little you had available on your under performing role players, you've pretty much backed yourself in to a corner. Sign them and have a useless support cast around them destined to fail? Ya, why bother.

Justify not signing, but the context of the situation still makes them look like dumb f***s that couldn't assess and manage a hockey team efficiently. All they did in the end was take the easiest option available in blowing it up and giving up until enough time passes for their mistakes to expire and to swing the talent pendulum after a few drafts. A child with a copy of NHL on PS4 could do what they did.

 

[harrisb]

Other teams would have signed these guys regardless of age, at least some of them... this was another Ottawa Senators problem.

Ottawa can't because they know the realities in Ottawa meant they'd never be able to surround them well enough and/or fast enough to bother. They would have been halfway through their contracts before management figured their way out of their mud.

When you're spending so little, and you've already wasted what little you had available on your under performing role players, you've pretty much backed yourself in to a corner. Sign them and have a useless support cast around them destined to fail? Ya, why bother.

Justify not signing, but the context of the situation still makes them look like dumb ****s that couldn't assess and manage a hockey team efficiently. All they did in the end was take the easiest option available in blowing it up and giving up until enough time passes for their mistakes to expire and to swing the talent pendulum after a few drafts. A child with a copy of NHL on PS4 could do what they did.

I'd love to see what setting you'd have to set the trade difficulty on to allow these to happen lol

 

[GrantLemons]

I'd love to see what setting you'd have to set the trade difficulty on to allow these to happen lol

You'd have to add a new setting.

Expert
Hard
Normal
Easy
Pierre Dorion

If your difficulty is set to Pierre Dorion, all you have to do is take back some actual dollars and the trade will go through guaranteed.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

You'd have to add a new setting.

Expert
Hard
Normal
Easy
Pierre Dorion

If your difficulty is set to Pierre Dorion, all you have to do is take back some actual dollars and the trade will go through guaranteed.

Don't forget the free draft pick thrown in!

 

[DaveMatthew]

This idea that Stone, Duchene and Karlsson are old, or soon to decline, is asinine.

Maybe it wouldn't have been smart to lock all 3 up for ~30million. But nobody's saying that. But one or two of them? Any other organization would have gotten it done.

When was the last time a team won the cup with an all under 26 roster?

 

[harrisb]

This idea that Stone, Duchene and Karlsson are old, or soon to decline, is asinine.

Maybe it wouldn't have been smart to lock all 3 up for ~30million. But nobody's saying that. But one or two of them? Any other organization would have gotten it done.

When was the last time a team won the cup with an all under 26 roster?

We have Anderson and hainsey, that’s our leadership

 

[DaveMatthew]

This is kind of like your Florida stuff that you post. Its dated. The article you are quoting is from 2014 and uses data fromas far back as the 97 98 season. The article I am linking to is from 2017 and uses data from 2008 to 2016. We keep hearing it is becoming a young man's game. You think maybe the difference in data sets would highlight that?

But even going by what you are talking about

Peak age for forwards is 28. Duchene is 28 and will turn 29 this season. Stone is 27.

Peak age for D is 29. Karlsson is 29.

Even with the dated data...these players are going to spend the heavy majority of their contracts on the downside of their primes.

P.S. I've spent over 30 years in my career analyzing data and interpreting it. I work with a lot of very intelligent highly educated young "data scientists" (some with PhDs in the subject) and the common thread that unites them seems to be their education focuses on data extraction and not so much on data interpretation.

The article I linked is far more current. It may have its' flaws however I'd need to dive into the data sets in detail to determine that. The article you linked is simply no longer statistically valid

St.Louis has 28 year old Ryan O'Reilly locked up for 4 more seasons at 7.5 million, and they traded for him when he was 27 with 5 years left. They're also going to extend 29 year old Alex Pietrangelo to a long-term big money deal.

The Boston Bruins once signed a 28 year-old Zdeno Chara to a 5 year deal at 7.5 million, and gave him another big contract when he was 34. They did the same with Patrice Bergeron.

I'm glad we're not running our team like those loser organizations!

 

[armani]

Stone is 27. Read the link i posted above

How did Karlsson do in the playoffs on his side of the red line?

EK65 did fabulously while he was with the Senators - won 2 Norrises, missed on a few he should have won.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Letting aging players go is a whole lot different than letting your 3 top players go all while entering their prime.

Goodness gracious, a player's prime is debatable, but Karlsson is 100% NOT entering his prime. His decline has started and it will be amazing to watch SJ flail with that contract.

Stone and Duchene's primes were probably 25 - so give or take, I'd agree, those two were horrific mistakes, or rather we never had a chance anyway most likely because of our inept management and idiot owner.

I was talking about letting 90% of the veterans go and letting the kids take over the team ie Bichette, Vlad, etc.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

We have Anderson and hainsey, that’s our leadership

And "Bottle Service" Bobby Ryan

 

[Micklebot]

Goodness gracious, a player's prime is debatable, but Karlsson is 100% NOT entering his prime. His decline has started and it will be amazing to watch SJ flail with that contract.

Stone and Duchene's primes were probably 25 - so give or take, I'd agree, those two were horrific mistakes, or rather we never had a chance anyway most likely because of our inept management and idiot owner.

I was talking about letting 90% of the veterans go and letting the kids take over the team ie Bichette, Vlad, etc.

Karlsson's issue is staying healthy and not playing hurt. Watched a fair bit of him in SJ and after the first dozen of acclimating to a new team and before pulling his groin around game 60 there was no decline in his game.

 

[BK201]

And "Bottle Service" Bobby Ryan

I like ryan xD actually think he would be a decent leader.

 

[Boud]

I like ryan xD actually think he would be a decent leader.

Great guy, but has no confidence, I have a real hard time seeing him being a true leader.

 

[DueDiligence]

As someone else already pointed out, it's analysis is flawed. If it was accurate we'd see Stanley cup winning teams with average ages of 23, but we don't. In fact we frequently see the older more experienced teams beating younger "more skilled" teams when it counts. There are certainly risks to signing players to long UFA contracts, but taking those risks on the right players is absolutely necessary to building a winning team.

If Duchene, Stone & Karlsson weren't the right players, what are the chances we will have a better 3 & how would you defined better?

If the reason for trading them was that they weren't the right 3, why would you not make that decision early enough to allow a hockey trade to occur, e.g. a year or more before their contract expires?

You can use the same reasoning to explain why no Stanley cups are won by teams with an average age of 30 or more. Also the average age of a team is about 27.1 years which means you have the same number of 22 year olds as 32 year olds.
Bottom line is that a team that has a number of their players in their 30s better have some really good 21 and 22 year old players if they expect to win.

 

[DueDiligence]

Goodness gracious, a player's prime is debatable, but Karlsson is 100% NOT entering his prime. His decline has started and it will be amazing to watch SJ flail with that contract.

Stone and Duchene's primes were probably 25 - so give or take, I'd agree, those two were horrific mistakes, or rather we never had a chance anyway most likely because of our inept management and idiot owner.

I was talking about letting 90% of the veterans go and letting the kids take over the team ie Bichette, Vlad, etc.

Even if Karlsson , Duchene and Stone are in their prime right now they definitely won't be in 3 years let alone in 6 or 7. Signing guys at age 27 to 8 year deals is only OK if you win a cup or two but regardless it will come back to bite you.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Even if Karlsson , Duchene and Stone are in their prime right now they definitely won't be in 3 years let alone in 6 or 7. Signing guys at age 27 to 8 year deals is only OK if you win a cup or two but regardless it will come back to bite you.

Well I mean, I hope the plan is to try and win the cup within the next 7 or 8 years. Having 2 of Karlsson, Duchene or Stone in their early 30s to complement Chabot, Tkachuk and Batherson would have been a great mix of veterans and young talent. (A strategy successful teams like Boston, Chicago and St.Louis utilize).

But if the plan is to continue to suck indefinitely, then yes, trading all 3 was the right decision.