Sportsnet: Senators’ Dorion talks team’s payroll, off-season moves and 2019-20 optimism

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by Variable26, Aug 7, 2019.

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  1. branch

    branch boomerang my twiggy

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    Everyone seems to think he's a Rain Man-esque savant of drafting but it is really just industry standard, nothing to really behold. Every team drafts good NHLers.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2019
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  2. GrantLemons

    GrantLemons Church of FYOUS

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    Except the Oilers.
     
  3. branch

    branch boomerang my twiggy

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    Tru
     
  4. Qward

    Qward Because! That's why!

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    I would argue that NYR are not great at drafting.
    They rely heavily on that fact they are the rangers and a lot of players would love to play in NYC. Including teams that have college picks that refuse to sign for the team that drafted them.
     
  5. Micklebot

    Micklebot Moderator

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    There have been a number of posters and other sources do org drafting rankings and Ottawa typically has done pretty well.

    Here os a link to a pretty good example

    Best Drafting Teams in the NHL
     
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  6. Variable26

    Variable26 Global Matador

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    Wow, some good info. Kudos to the people that put this info together.

    Those early years made a difference.
     
  7. SpezDispenser

    SpezDispenser Registered User

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    It's quite possible this year is very like the Jays year where they're last, but you see the kids play and you see the potential there.

    The rub is obviously signing our young players to long term contracts. Until chabot is signed long term, I have no faith they can or will do this right.
     
  8. inthewings

    inthewings Registered User

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    At least Rogers has demonstrated that they're willing and able to have a top-10 payroll in MLB.
     
  9. Variable26

    Variable26 Global Matador

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    Right ....and the Sens have never spent money before. They always were way below cap.

    Yup, let’s pretend they have always been unable to do anything..,
     
  10. Gil Gunderson

    Gil Gunderson Registered User

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    They haven't been anywhere near the cap in almost a decade.

    In a few years the cap will be double what it was then too.
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
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  11. SpezDispenser

    SpezDispenser Registered User

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    Yeah I was gonna say, the Sens used to sign all their players when Melnyk had money.

    And I wouldn't say Rogers has done much lately, the parallels are there big time. Letting Encarnacion walk, Bautista, basically all the older talent.
     
  12. inthewings

    inthewings Registered User

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    The Jays were top-10 in MLB in payroll every year from 2013-2018, and then bottomed out this year at the nadir of the rebuild.

    Jose Bautista left for his age-38 season because he was abysmal in his age-37 season and wasn't good enough to warrant a spot. He played for 3 different teams that year, and is now effectively retired because nobody wanted to give him a contract.

    The only similarities between the two organizations at this point is that they're both rebuilding.
     
  13. inthewings

    inthewings Registered User

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    Am I to take from this post that you're confident Melnyk is going to spend close to the cap in the near future?
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2019
  14. Variable26

    Variable26 Global Matador

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    I definitely think it will be in his normal range after locking up some good players.

    No owner of a small market team is going to go full FYOUS like Euge
     
  15. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    Letting aging players go is a whole lot different than letting your 3 top players go all while entering their prime.
     
  16. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    They aren't entering their prime. The statistical evidence on that is very clear.

    Karlsson has injury concerns

    Stone is an average skater and most certainly going to lose a step or two over 8 years

    Duchene is the only one of the 3 I would have signed
     
  17. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    Please share said evidence, and no your opinion is not evidence
     
  18. Sensfan5

    Sensfan5 Registered User

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    Karlsson is the best or 2nd best player in franchise history. Still one of if not the best D in the game. Imagine him and Chabot together? Not that it matters cause Chabot is on his way out too.

    Stone is maybe an average skater but relies on superior hockey IQ and positioning. Hes the least likely to fall off. And he was the heart and soul of the team. Shame we wouldn't pay him.

    Duchene will be the one to fall off the quickest as he loses speed. Still an amazing player.

    a #1 centre, a #1 winger, and a #1 dman. All key ingredients to a rebuild. Sucks that our owner doesn't want to pay any good players.
     
  19. operasen

    operasen Registered User

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    Stone makes everyone he plays with a better player. And I believe he wanted to stay. Would have been a tremendous Captain and rebuilding force. Ship has sailed now.

    We need to build around Chabot, Tkachuk and our 2020 1st. Other pieces like Batherson, Brown, etc are ion the pipeline and will arrive by TDL or next year. Batherson probably this year..
     
  20. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    Read this article

    A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

    It is pretty informative and also links to a lot of other analysis.

    We've got one big ufa deal on the books and it is a problem contract. Most big long term ufa deals are problem contracts. The players that seem to buck that trend are the super elite with no mobility related injury history.
     
  21. JD1

    JD1 Registered User

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    Karlsson is not one of the best D in the game the past two years. He might rebound but he hasn't been near the top of the league since our cup run and his ankle injury

    The league has a long history of high IQ average skaters that rely on IQ and positioning. Then you wake up one day and cannot get to the position you want to be in and you're done.

    Duchene's skating can afford a decline and he can still be a quality player.

    It seems we look at these 3 with completely opposite views
     
  22. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    What's his normal range, though?

    In 16/17 and 17/18 we had relatively high salary expenditures, but for the majority of his ownership, he was paying less than $55 million a season for players.

    And in recent years, we all know his net worth has taken a hit, and revenues must be declining.

    So as low as it seems right now in the context of the 19/20 cap ceiling, this is a "normal range" for Melnyk.
     
  23. bert

    bert Registered User

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    And the asset management has been by far the worst we have seen in either league in a long long long time. Atleast the sens have the excuse of having no money to hire real professionals to run the team. What the jays have done is actually comparably worse.
     
  24. bert

    bert Registered User

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    Lol Stone is 26 years old, show me the statistical evidence that he is past his prime id LOVE to see how you are going to do this one. Thank god you are not running this team. Or wait, are you?

    The bolded is absolutely incorrect.

    Karlsson was 6th in ppg for D men while being plus 6 playing 24:29 a game. Then continued to lead the playoffs in ppg for defensemen for players that played more than 10 games.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019
  25. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    So you used an analysis that doesn't include survivorship in the league, doesn't account for players being moved up and down, doesn't account for sheltering of young players lol. P.S. I spent the first 12 years of my career doing data analysis and this is flawed work

    Here's another one from a UBC prof not random blogger:

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054

    I'll save you some time, here is the punchline:

    James Brander of UBC's Sauder School of Business, is the lead author of a new study that puts the peak scoring age for NHL forwards at 28 and for defencemen, 29. NHL goaltenders show little change in performance based on age. (UBC)

    Now, how old and what positions did Duchene, Stone and Karlsson fall in to?
     
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