Sportsnet: Senators’ Dorion talks team’s payroll, off-season moves and 2019-20 optimism

[Micklebot]

You can use the same reasoning to explain why no Stanley cups are won by teams with an average age of 30 or more. Also the average age of a team is about 27.1 years which means you have the same number of 22 year olds as 32 year olds.
Bottom line is that a team that has a number of their players in their 30s better have some really good 21 and 22 year old players if they expect to win.

Most teams are going to have a spread of ages because teams are trying to balance winning now while not sacrificing the future, and need to be cap compliant, and since veteran players typically cost significantly more than kids on their ELC or 2nd contract, you'll see a mix. Long term health requires you have young up and coming kids ready to replace older guys as they age out.

Also left unsaid is how would you acquire all these top tier 23 year olds... teams typically aren't trading 23 year olds so you have to draft them, and to draft an entire teams worth of young players ready to contribute at the same time would take a ton of picks...

 

[Micklebot]

Even if Karlsson , Duchene and Stone are in their prime right now they definitely won't be in 3 years let alone in 6 or 7. Signing guys at age 27 to 8 year deals is only OK if you win a cup or two but regardless it will come back to bite you.

So, Malkin was signed at 27 to a 8 year deal. At the time, it represented 14.77% of the cap, today it represents today it's 11.6%. Kane's deal represented 15.22% of the cap when he signed it and now it's only 12.8%

There is a degree of age related regression that is mitigated by cap increases, and if you expect rapid cap increases (like what a new TV contract for the league or expanded gambling revenues might produce) betting on a player now can become appealing. You also get lower cap hits initially by giving players term. It's also worth noting elite players tend to regress slower and at a later age (with obvious exceptions, particularly when injuries are involved).

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Well I mean, I hope the plan is to try and win the cup within the next 7 or 8 years. Having 2 of Karlsson, Duchene or Stone in their early 30s to complement Chabot, Tkachuk and Batherson would have been a great mix of veterans and young talent. (A strategy successful teams like Boston, Chicago and St.Louis utilize).

But if the plan is to continue to suck indefinitely, then yes, trading all 3 was the right decision.

No team could afford that -- no team

 

[DaveMatthew]

No team could afford that -- no team

What? The cap is rising, and will continue to rise. Today, Mark Stone’s AAV is ~12% of the cap. In 3 years, it’ll likely be down to ~9-10%, and even lower in the years after. That’ll free up more than enough room to sign young players.

Do you think Vegas is worried about losing Cody Glass because they signed Mark Stone and traded for Pacioretty? No.

Lots of teams would be able to afford Stone, Duchene, Tkachuk and Chabot as their core. (Hell, Toronto has Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and will soon have Marner).

The only franchise that can’t is Ottawa.

This is a league where top end players are going for 11+ million. Duchene and Stone at under 10 each are affordable.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

What? The cap is rising, and will continue to rise. Today, Mark Stone’s AAV is ~12% of the cap. In 3 years, it’ll likely be down to ~9-10%, and even lower in the years after. That’ll free up more than enough room to sign young players.

Do you think Vegas is worried about losing Cody Glass because they signed Mark Stone and traded for Pacioretty? No.

Lots of teams would be able to afford Stone, Duchene, Tkachuk and Chabot as their core. (Hell, Toronto has Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and will soon have Marner).

The only franchise that can’t is Ottawa.

This is a league where top end players are going for 11+ million. Duchene and Stone at under 10 each are affordable.

I think you answered the question yourself.... Toronto the cash flush can try to do it but may still have problems signing Marner.

Out in the first round...

Not a lot of teams can do this

It's Bobby Ryan's fault!

Not a lot of teams have Toronto's war chest to pay $$$

 

[DaveMatthew]

I think you answered the question yourself.... Toronto the cash flush can try to do it but may still have problems signing Marner.

Out in the first round...

Toronto is set up to compete every single year for the next 5 years. They have 2 top 10 centres, 2 top young wingers, a Norris caliber defenseman and a legitimate #1 goalie.

They’re in fantastic shape, as an organization. If we had their roster, we’d be planning parades.

Many on this board have forgotten that the goal is to compete and win. Not to acquire 2nd round picks and save money for the “future”.

Sure they lost in the 1st round twice, but you realize that Matthews is the same age as Drake Batherson and Logan Brown right? The guys we think are so great but still play in the AHL?

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Toronto is set up to compete every single year for the next 5 years. They have 2 top 10 centres, 2 top young wingers, a Norris caliber defenseman and a legitimate #1 goalie.

They’re in fantastic shape, as an organization. If we had their roster, we’d be planning parades.

Many on this board have forgotten that the goal is to compete and win. Not to acquire 2nd round picks and save money for the “future”.

Sure they lost in the 1st round twice, but you realize that Matthews is the same age as Drake Batherson and Logan Brown right? The guys we think are so great but still play in the AHL?

The goal now is to rebuild around a new core. Basically from scratch. The cup is not within reach for a while. You can't compete and win all the time. It is cyclical. Tear down and rebuild is part of the game.

Couple of scenarios regarding Dorion:

He is wanting to do it 'his own way' and erase all the past from his predecessor.
He is a knob at negotiating
He knows what is possible with the current budget set by EM
He is a knob at negotiating
He knew when EK65 was to be dealt because of mathematical reasons, that the other guys were leaving for sure
He is a knob at negotiating
He is a genius and knows which prospects are going to be traded in the future for the pieces to the puzzle which is called "Lord Stanley"

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Well I mean, I hope the plan is to try and win the cup within the next 7 or 8 years. Having 2 of Karlsson, Duchene or Stone in their early 30s to complement Chabot, Tkachuk and Batherson would have been a great mix of veterans and young talent. (A strategy successful teams like Boston, Chicago and St.Louis utilize).

Who were the "veterans" on the Blackhawks, with big long term contracts, when they won a Cup(s)?

 

[BondraTime]

Who were the "veterans" on the Blackhawks, with big long term contracts, when they won a Cup(s)?

Hossa, Campbell, Seabrook. Keith, Sharp were all over 30 and making ~6 million or more in a much smaller cap world.

They had the foresight to sign Keith long term off his ELC instead of pushing the can down the road with 2/3 year bridge contracts where they'd be owed huge money, along with the back diving contracts.

Comparable contract this season using the % of cap when their contract was signed:

Campbell 2008 7.14 million -> 2019 10.2 million
Hossa 2009 - 5.275 million -> 2019 7.5 million
Seabrook Feb 2011 - 5.8 million -> 2019 7.95 million
Keith Dec 2009 - 5.54 million -> 2019 7.95 million
Sharp Aug 2011 - 5. 9 million -> 2019 7.48 million

 

[BonkTastic]

Who were the "veterans" on the Blackhawks, with big long term contracts, when they won a Cup(s)?

31-year-old Marian Hossa was in the first year of a massive 12-year cap-circumvention UFA contract and had one of the league's higest salaries when the Blackhawks won their first cup in 2009-10. So he counts for all 3 Chicago cups.

30-year-old Brian Campbell was famously signed as a UFA in 2008-09 to one of the richest defenceman contracts in the league at that time, lured away from Buffalo, and played on all 3 Hawks cup teams.

Duncan Keith signed a massive 13-year deal as a 27 year old (roughly the same age Karlsson was when we traded him away) immediately after the Hawks won their 1st cup, so his big long term contract counts for their 2nd and 3rd (2012-13 and 2014-15) cups.

Seabrook was on a 5 year deal for their 2nd and 3rd cups making 1st line D money - signed it as a 26 year old, and 4 of the 5 years were potential UFA years. Sharp was on a 5 year deal as well for the last 2 Hawks cup wins, which he signed as a 31 year old - all UFA aged years.

... does that sufficiently answer your question?

 

[Knave]

Who were the "veterans" on the Blackhawks, with big long term contracts, when they won a Cup(s)?

You want to play this game? Lets remember how old Duchene, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, Turris and others were - all below the age of 30. In the middle of their primes.

Now lets look at that Blackhawks team when they win their first cup:

Hossa 31 at 5.3 million where he was making 7.9 million that year (can you imagine Melnyk paying someone that much money?)

Campbell (30 turned 31) at 7.1 million AAV (400K AAV below the biggest contract this team has ever signed but more term - so bigger than the biggest contract Melnyk has ever signed for this team)

Sharp 28 for 3.9 million.

Now lets inflate to the modern cap as if we had just signed these contracts (like Chicago had in the leadup to their dynasty):

Sharp 6.3 million, Hossa 7.5 million, Campbell 10.3 million (pretty close to Karlsson and for a guy who didn't win 2 Norris trophies).

But I guess we shouldn't be like Chicago and take a risk on anything. Wouldn't want to have an exciting team and win. Why try? We're too cool to try.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Do you think PD sings this at karaoke?

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That's why we desperately need a POHO. Dorion can focus on what he's good at, and the POHO can control Melnyk.

Do we know what that is?

 

[harrisb]

We’re in rough shape for a very long time. FYOUS is a good piece away, it’ll take 6-7 years before our young “core” of Chabot, tkachuk, white are well in to their primes and that’s hoping we pick up a more than a few of their ilk during that time. Of course, this all largely depends on if we are able to keep that core and history suggests we won’t. We need those guys in their mid-late twenties, locked up on decently cap friendly long term deals and young ELC studs filling out the roster.

That’s an extended timeline and also assumes melnyk is able to keep them all, which is by no means a guarantee. Does he have the means to float a team of budding stars for this length of time while we continue to draft? After 2021 our number of picks drops to a “normal” range, will melnyk spend big on single year ufa’s To use as trade bait at the deadline to recoup more picks? Will melnyk start trading cap for picks to bolster the figures?

These are a good portion of the questions we need yes answers to and unfortunately they have been either answered no or showing signs of no thus far.

It’s dark days for so long as either melnyk is owner or somehow he magically changes his mindset and decides to invest in the product. Obviously new owners with a desire and means to win changes everything.

Another unrelated question, who was the last NHL team in the bottom half of spending to win the cup?

 

[bert]

Toronto is set up to compete every single year for the next 5 years. They have 2 top 10 centres, 2 top young wingers, a Norris caliber defenseman and a legitimate #1 goalie.

They’re in fantastic shape, as an organization. If we had their roster, we’d be planning parades.

Many on this board have forgotten that the goal is to compete and win. Not to acquire 2nd round picks and save money for the “future”.

Sure they lost in the 1st round twice, but you realize that Matthews is the same age as Drake Batherson and Logan Brown right? The guys we think are so great but still play in the AHL?

You're on fire lately. Another great post.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Do you think PD sings this at karaoke?

...please don't make me picture Pierre Dorion in that outfit.

 

[JD1]

We’re in rough shape for a very long time. FYOUS is a good piece away, it’ll take 6-7 years before our young “core” of Chabot, tkachuk, white are well in to their primes and that’s hoping we pick up a more than a few of their ilk during that time. Of course, this all largely depends on if we are able to keep that core and history suggests we won’t. We need those guys in their mid-late twenties, locked up on decently cap friendly long term deals and young ELC studs filling out the roster.

That’s an extended timeline and also assumes melnyk is able to keep them all, which is by no means a guarantee. Does he have the means to float a team of budding stars for this length of time while we continue to draft? After 2021 our number of picks drops to a “normal” range, will melnyk spend big on single year ufa’s To use as trade bait at the deadline to recoup more picks? Will melnyk start trading cap for picks to bolster the figures?

These are a good portion of the questions we need yes answers to and unfortunately they have been either answered no or showing signs of no thus far.

It’s dark days for so long as either melnyk is owner or somehow he magically changes his mindset and decides to invest in the product. Obviously new owners with a desire and means to win changes everything.

Another unrelated question, who was the last NHL team in the bottom half of spending to win the cup?

In recent nhl history, where players are hitting their primes earlier than they ever have which we discussed yesterday, Toronto went from dead last in 2015-16 and a draft lottery win to three successive playoff appearances. Personally I think that team is set up for playoff appearances for a long time but not for playoff success. Regardless of that, recent NHL history has shown very quick turnarounds for teams based primarily on the emergence of young players. So why then is it going to take us 6 or 7 years? Can we win a lottery this year and parlay the young C we select straight in to the playoffs? Why not?

 

[Micklebot]

In recent nhl history, where players are hitting their primes earlier than they ever have which we discussed yesterday, Toronto went from dead last in 2015-16 and a draft lottery win to three successive playoff appearances. Personally I think that team is set up for playoff appearances for a long time but not for playoff success. Regardless of that, recent NHL history has shown very quick turnarounds for teams based primarily on the emergence of young players. So why then is it going to take us 6 or 7 years? Can we win a lottery this year and parlay the young C we select straight in to the playoffs? Why not?

I think TO is the exception not the rule. They were a bubble team in 2010 to 2014. Heck they were pacing around mid 90s when the team fired Carlyle and strategically decideded to tank landing Marner that year and opting to aim for last to snag Matthews the next. They were really an organically last place team that turned things around, a better example is probably Colorado.

 

[harrisb]

In recent nhl history, where players are hitting their primes earlier than they ever have which we discussed yesterday, Toronto went from dead last in 2015-16 and a draft lottery win to three successive playoff appearances. Personally I think that team is set up for playoff appearances for a long time but not for playoff success. Regardless of that, recent NHL history has shown very quick turnarounds for teams based primarily on the emergence of young players. So why then is it going to take us 6 or 7 years? Can we win a lottery this year and parlay the young C we select straight in to the playoffs? Why not?

Because we can't and won't pay players like Bozak, Komarov, Fehr, Kadri, Marleau, Moore, Plekanec, JVR to surround them. The leafs still had many of those guys and didn't do a complete gut of salary like we did. That was just the 2017 team, in 2018 they also added Tavares... The part you are also missing is the leafs used cash to rebuild in that rapid fashion, we just gutted the team for pennies on the dollar now don't have the supporting cast to surround the kids.

 

[foggyvisor]

Toronto is garbage. Please don't degrade yourselves and complement the Shanaplan, which has gone off the rails.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Toronto is garbage. Please don't degrade yourselves and complement the Shanaplan, which has gone off the rails.

^This.

Toronto's defense is nowhere close to being championship caliber. And in today's game, no goalie is going to be able to save them.

They will be competitive and very fun to watch....but don't put money on them to win when it matters.

 

[bert]

^This.

Toronto's defense is nowhere close to being championship caliber. And in today's game, no goalie is going to be able to save them.

They will be competitive and very fun to watch....but don't put money on them to win when it matters.

They have 3 stud defensemen and 3 blue chip prospects on the back end one of which is already playing for them. They are going to be very very good this year and moving forward. All they really need to do is dump Nylander it will solve all of their cap issues. They traded the wrong guy in the Barrie trade. I honestly think a new coach might go a long way too. The way Babcock coaches his shelf life is likely very close to being up. He is a great coach but I think his message might be getting stale.

I hate them as much as anyone (their fans in particular on this site and the media) but if anyone thinks the 'Shannaplan is off the rails' its because you hate them and cant see their situation very clearly.

They are deep fast and skilled in every position.

Hyman	Matthews	Nylander
Aberg	Tavares	Marner
Johnsson	Kerfoot	Kapanen
Moore	Spezza	Bracco
Petan	Gauthier	Wilson
Rielly	Dermott
Muzzin	Barrie
Harpur	Ceci
Sandin	Liljegren
Anderson
Neuvrith
Hutchinson

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[JD1]

I think TO is the exception not the rule. They were a bubble team in 2010 to 2014. Heck they were pacing around mid 90s when the team fired Carlyle and strategically decideded to tank landing Marner that year and opting to aim for last to snag Matthews the next. They were really an organically last place team that turned things around, a better example is probably Colorado.

Colorado is another example. Not better. Different. But another example.

 

[JD1]

Because we can't and won't pay players like Bozak, Komarov, Fehr, Kadri, Marleau, Moore, Plekanec, JVR to surround them. The leafs still had many of those guys and didn't do a complete gut of salary like we did. That was just the 2017 team, in 2018 they also added Tavares... The part you are also missing is the leafs used cash to rebuild in that rapid fashion, we just gutted the team for pennies on the dollar now don't have the supporting cast to surround the kids.

The leafs made the playoffs twice without Tavares. IMO they altered their plan to go after Tavares and it was a mistake.

 

[bert]

The leafs made the playoffs twice without Tavares. IMO they altered their plan to go after Tavares and it was a mistake.

They replaced Kadri, Gardiner and Marleau for the same money as Kerfoot, Tavares and Barrie they are a much better team because of it.