Sportsnet: Seguin "disappointed" to not have an extension yet

[seabass45]

I'm sure. And that begs the question - why are these teams in this situation to begin with? UFA offers great players a buffet of choices... it just depends what are they motivated by most? Money, location, chance to win annually? If it's the money, then it's easy - wait until you're a UFA and accept the most, regardless of who's offering it.

Some teams don't have realistic expectations of winning a cup. Their owner/ownership group is looking at the teams purely as an investment. Some managers are judged on attendance and profit. Those teams are often willing to overpay for a marquee name if they need a star to market. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what the player and team both want.

The only reason why this is a topic is because Seguin said he is "disappointed that a deal isn't done." When a player says that, all kinds of speculation and discussion will follow. That's what the media does, that's what fans do.

There are a few solid teams that could definitely fit Seguin in, FYI. I'll start with Nashville, since I saw them as a dark horse for JT. They have enough cap space to make it happen, one NTC right now, and if they don't win it all this year they could make a push.

 

[WhatWhat]

I hope the irony of this "You can't win with a high paid superstar" that's coming from someone who appears to be a fan of a team who is gearing up to pay their superstar 12 million, isn't lost on you.

I didn't say you can't, I just dont think you can without really good scouting and developing. Dallas still values too many outdated features that I've given up hope with the current scouting staff other than a few

I dont expect Dallas to win a cup in the next while. We didn't manage to field a good enough team when Seguin and Benn were underpaid and Spezza was still producing at a 1C level. I'd just rather not lose Seguin because the rest of our team is too good for us to get a high pick so it's pointless. We have been stuck drafting just outside of the top 10 for so many years that I'll consider it successful if we manage to string together back to back first round exists.

Besides if we extend Seguin suck hard for the next 3 years then we can always trade a retained 30 year old Seguin for something that would help kick start a rebuild.

 

[glovesave_35]

He has shown the same level of production of Leon Draisaitl and he's getting 8.5 in Edmonton. Where they say players get paid more "because of taxes".

He has done it for more years than Draisaitl, but he is also older.

I think there's a difference here - some people are guessing on his next contract, with any team. I am saying what I think he is truly worth and what I would offer. My honest opinion is that I think about 10% of guys in the league are "overpaid" upon contract signing, 80% are paid properly, and 10% are underpaid.

I truly do not mean for my "here's what I offer" post to come off as conceited. Just how I am choosing to think of all this within the conversation.

As I said before, Seguin's the type of player you can measure almost entirely from points. He doesn't bring that "other gear" (or at least hasn't shown it) of someone like a Tavares, who has put up great stats throughout his career with lesser talent.

I get where you are coming from now. If you are saying that's the most you would want your team to pay and not what his value is, that's your prerogative.

I will point out that Draisatl's contract is another apples and oranges situation. That was a mostly RFA contract and Seguin's will be entirely UFA years.

 

[WhatWhat]

I totally get what you're saying, and you make some very valid points. My point was not as much about the "dollar amount" per se, it's about the % of your payroll going to one or two players. If you're putting your eggs in those baskets, and two players are taking up 25-30% of your entire cap, you need to make sure they are special players who can win, and not just superstars on paper. That's my point. PIT and CHI won because their money was going to Sid/Geno and Kane/Toews, not random superstarsX and Y. I'll even use my own team as an example, the Philadelphia Flyers...

When the Flyers signed Giroux and Voracek to those monster deals, I thought it was the ultimate catch-22. They were coming off good years and "deserved" good money, but I wondered then what I wonder today... are the Flyers going to win a Cup with Giroux/Voracek making the most on the team... top end, elite money that is/was close to Sid/Geno money. I don't think so, as much as it pains me to say it.

Honestly, what has Seguin shown since he's been in Dallas that leads you to believe he is the "type" of player who can carry Dallas on his back to the promised land? He's had some good points but what have the Stars done with him? Even last year they signed Radulov and Bishop... supposedly addressing their two main areas of weakness... and squat.

As great as Seguin is, he doesn't bring to the table what a Sid, Geno, Kane, etc. do. If the Stars commit to him 13+% of their entire cap, how competitive will they really be over the long haul? 14% of the Pens cap going to Sid is one thing, because he can carry the darn team. The same with Geno... and Kane. These guys are worth that. They are special players. Seguin is a star player, but if Sid is worth 14.5% of the Pens cap, what % is Seguin truly worth to Dallas in relation? 10%? 11% maybe? Even if Dallas gets him CHEAP at $10 mil a pop, that's still $12.6% of their cap, according to your math. How then does Dallas surround him and Benn with enough high-end talent to win anything substantial? Seguin and Benn are not Sid/Geno or Toews/Kane.... they need more help around them. More help = more money that needs to be spent.

The Leafs just went all in with Tavares. They will attempt to lock-up Matthews next and it will be close to the same money. Tavares/Matthews will be their Sid/Geno. Then they will try to lock in Marner, Nylander, etc. I just don't think it's wise for Dallas to go overboard for Seguin, but that's easy for me to say as an outsider. He's your star player and Dallas is your team. You feel differently and I understand that.

No its definately a tough spot to be in, I mean no one wants to be cap strapped but in order to keep the talent its part of the reality. Its also one of the biggest reasons why I dont want Dallas to trade for Karlsson because while I think 2 10 million dollar contracts is tough to juggle I think 3 is impossible.

As to the percentages you are lumping 13% in with the 14.5% + contracts you listed. 14.5% is an 11.5% increase from 13%. That is significant and separates them. Players like Crosby, Malkin, McDavid deserve every penny in that range. I would argue they should all be earning 15%+. After that you have the next tier of players. That to me is the tier that Seguin and Tavares fall cleanly in. Sure they earn more the the top players right now in AAV but from a cap % they are a clear division lower as they should be. Ideally I would want Seguin to sign at Benn cap % which is right at 13%. However Tavares signing at 11AVV (over 13%) and being offered 13 in desperation (well over 13%) has kind of reset the market. Seguin says he want to stay in Dallas but he has a cup already so realistically I wouldnt be shocked if he was looking for a decently competitive team that can also give him a big contract. I dont think he is scared to test the free agent market either so we really dont have a leg to stand on the negotiations seeing as we either offer him 11 or he goes and gets that offer elsewhere. So with all that in mind I think its come down to a "discount" for Dallas would be seguin coming in at < 10.5 AAV and a realistic deal for him seeing as he has all the leverage in the world is 8x11.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

What Exactly did Crosby accomplish?
Malkin carried the team in 09, but had Guerin, Gonchar, Letang, Crosby all Contributing
Then you had Malkin, Kessel, Crosby, Guentzal, Letang and Murray as big contributors in their last 2 runs.
Dallas has Benn, Seguin, and Klingberg,
But has had a huge dropoff after that. Radulov was a step in the right direction but he can't drive a line like Malkin/Kessel can the Pens 2nd and 3rd lines

If Trade Seguin for Crosby, they still are finishing in the exact same spots
The Goal Differences between the two over the last 4 years are
137 for Crosby to 136 for Seguin.

1 more goal doesn't equal several more wins (if even 1) in any season. The team GF over the last 4 years
272,284,245,221 for Pits(1022)
235,223,267,261 for Dal (986)

And the two years dallas had a high powered Offense, they didn't know what Defense was, let alone have a goalie the quality of Fluery or Murray.

You're delusional if you think the stars Roster + Crosby make any significant improvement

thank you for the truth

 

[Tavares to Marner]

Seguin should get around 10 to 11

 

[HanSolo]

He's going to go to Vegas

Honestly Vegas is quickly becoming a team that doesn't have a mountain of cap space anymore.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Not for anything, but, how is Dallas a cup contender while paying Seguin 11 mil? They haven't sniffed a cup since Seguin's been on the team.

I like Seguin as a player, and think Dallas is clearly better with him in the lineup, but maybe Dallas is looking at the big picture and asking themselves, "how far has Seguin gotten us?" Maybe they are wondering if they want to commit mega, franchise dollars to a player who hasn't been able to get them to the next level?

I'm not a Dallas fan nor hater. I'm just offering some unemotional, outside perspective. If I were Dallas, I'd at least be testing the market to see if another team is willing to overpay in a trade for Seguin. Worst case scenario, there's a limited market and you're back at square one - Dallas still owns his rights.

But, realistically, if the Stars end up paying Seguin 11 mil, how much money do they have to bring on additionally impact players and pay them handsomely? Heiskanen is their prize in the pipeline, but outside of him, there are some nice players, but no pending monsters who are poised to step in today and make a huge impact.

Dallas is in a tricky spot. On paper, they are a very attractive team with top-end names: Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Bishop, Klingberg. But they can't seem to put it together. In addition, the West is loaded with teams like Nashville, Winnipeg and Vegas that are going to be better for the foreseeable future. Even the Blues look good. And that's not taking into account the Oilers if McDavid gets the right help around him.

Dallas is a tweener team - not great but not sucky. They could be awesome, or they could struggle to make the playoffs. In other words, very unpredictable. As a manager, I'm scared by this. This is a defining moment for the team. If they sign Seguin to a massive (Tavares-type) extension and the team continues to be in limbo, they are stuck with an albatross for many years.

Dallas has a problem with secondary scoring. You have those top guys but they are on 1 line. After that line there is a huge drop off. Seguin is doing more than enough of his part to make the team better. Dallas has to attract some top name free agents. Duchene Karlsson stone panerin Skinner just to name a few.

 

[NYR94]

Nill I am disappoint

 

[Dustin]

Seguin to Vegas. Wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 

[hockeyguy1967]

RFA VS UFA How do people not realize this... there is a massive ****ing difference. If McDavid was allowed to talk to all 31 teams and they could have offered him without compensation I would be willing to bet a decent sum of money some team would have offered north of 14 and we might have seen the first max contract.

Every team in the league would have offered him max contract which at that time was 15M. Every single team regardless of if they had to give up a ton of assets or not. In fact he gave Edmonton a 2.5M discount.

 

[KingPuckChoo]

Dallas is breaking this new trend of signing a player a full year before they hit UFA, good on them! hope they resist the urge

and no, they don't risk losing the player for nothing; why not set an internal deadline like if the player isn't signed by the trade deadline of his UFA year, only then you trade him for a nice haul?

Worst thing to do is to give an 8 yr contract to a player that still has a full year to f*** up or get injured (9 year commitment!)

 

[Vegan Knight]

Dallas is breaking this new trend of signing a player a full year before they hit UFA, good on them! hope they resist the urge

and no, they don't risk losing the player for nothing; why not set an internal deadline like if the player isn't signed by the trade deadline of his UFA year, only then you trade him for a nice haul?

Worst thing to do is to give an 8 yr contract to a player that still has a full year to **** up or get injured (9 year commitment!)

I don't understand. If the player is in his UFA year and you wait to put an internal deadline until the trade deadline then you can't trade him afterwards.

Your internal deadline would need to be before the trade deadline.

I don't know if I would call it a haul either. If you have a Seguin type superstar as a rental you could get a late 1st (competing team) and A prospect and another pick or a lesser prospect. That's two great pieces and an extra piece, for sure, and much better than nothing for them walking in the summer but it isn't like four or five great pieces for someone extended.

It also doesn't factor in if you are a competing team that year who wants to get into the playoffs themselves.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Dallas is breaking this new trend of signing a player a full year before they hit UFA, good on them! hope they resist the urge

and no, they don't risk losing the player for nothing; why not set an internal deadline like if the player isn't signed by the trade deadline of his UFA year, only then you trade him for a nice haul?

Worst thing to do is to give an 8 yr contract to a player that still has a full year to **** up or get injured (9 year commitment!)

Yeah as much as I’d love to have Seguin signed if Dallas is ever going to be a contender we can’t throw 12 million a year at one player unless that one player is McDavid. I do not want to trade and lose Seguin, I do not want to rebuild, but with Seguin at 12 and Benn at 9.5 we’d be looking like Chicago today, but with no cups to show for it.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Dallas has a problem with secondary scoring. You have those top guys but they are on 1 line. After that line there is a huge drop off. Seguin is doing more than enough of his part to make the team better. Dallas has to attract some top name free agents. Duchene Karlsson stone panerin Skinner just to name a few.

Biggest thing we need to do is improve our drafting. Look at it since Nill took over (2013); Dallas Stars Draft History at hockeydb.com

None of these are impact players in the NHL yet!

 

[glovesave_35]

Yeah as much as I’d love to have Seguin signed if Dallas is ever going to be a contender we can’t throw 12 million a year at one player unless that one player is McDavid. I do not want to trade and lose Seguin, I do not want to rebuild, but with Seguin at 12 and Benn at 9.5 we’d be looking like Chicago today, but with no cups to show for it.

Klingberg is one of the best value contracts in the league. If you group the three of them together and divide the total salary by 3 it all makes sense. I don't think it's a complete picture if you just mention the two forwards.

 

[780il]

I see him going to Ottawa next year. They have the cap space , there will no contest for #1 center and he's in his home province.

Only problem is that the team is a total shit show. Karlsson is as good as gone, Duchene will leave. Stone might as well leave too with those guys leaving. Also, Cheapass Melnyk will probably offer 75% of what every other team is offering. Ottawa is the last place he'd go.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Klingberg is one of the best value contracts in the league. If you group the three of them together and divide the total salary by 3 it all makes sense. I don't think it's a complete picture if you just mention the two forwards.

True he is a steal for another four years.

 

[glovesave_35]

Only problem is that the team is a total **** show. Karlsson is as good as gone, Duchene will leave. Stone might as well leave too with those guys leaving. Also, Cheapass Melnyk will probably offer 75% of what every other team is offering. Ottawa is the last place he'd go.

Yeah, there is no way he ends up in Ottawa. Of teams that currently aren't great but may have a shot, Detroit could make sense. Not sure about their cap situation going forward though.

 

[Unspecified]

Cool...Seguin plays with Benn, JT has never had a teammate of that quality or even close to it.

So i guess we can chalk up Kucherov's success simply for playing with Stamkos. Thanks for coming out!

 

[BAM]

So i guess we can chalk up Kucherov's success simply for playing with Stamkos. Thanks for coming out!

Except Kucherov has had seasons where he has performed well without Stamkos even in the line up. If you need explanation why playing with a world class winger is more beneficial than playing with borderline top 6 players, you need to watch more hockey and learn the game. smh...

 

[Unspecified]

Except Kucherov has had seasons where he has performed well without Stamkos even in the line up. If you need explanation why playing with a world class winger is more beneficial than playing with borderline top 6 players, you need to watch more hockey and learn the game. smh...

And before you make a blanket comment about Seguin being the product of Benn you should do some research of your own and realize they are not exclusively on the same line. Seguin produces with and without Benn. JT played with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey who are not scrubs so this just is more evidence that you know nothing about Dallas and apparently the Islanders. Thanks for coming out.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Except Kucherov has had seasons where he has performed well without Stamkos even in the line up. If you need explanation why playing with a world class winger is more beneficial than playing with borderline top 6 players, you need to watch more hockey and learn the game. smh...

"Skilled player excels when paired with skilled linemates. More at 11."

smh foh wtf lol bbq....

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Yeah as much as I’d love to have Seguin signed if Dallas is ever going to be a contender we can’t throw 12 million a year at one player unless that one player is McDavid. I do not want to trade and lose Seguin, I do not want to rebuild, but with Seguin at 12 and Benn at 9.5 we’d be looking like Chicago today, but with no cups to show for it.

Chicago is in the place it's in because of a horrible Seabrook contract. If Chicago replaced him with an average paid player, it would have about $9 million cap space which isn't bad. (You could also argue that Toews' production only justifies him being like a $6 or $7 million player, but I get that he brings more to the table than just that).

Seguin and Benn taking up around $22 million in cap space should not be a problem, but it leaves very little room for error so far as striking out on draft picks and giving out bad contracts.

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

He should come to the isles