Value of: Sam Reinhart

[tsujimoto74]

I was a little skeptical at first, but a Reinhart/Hanifin swap is growing on me. It's a bit risky for both teams, but hopefully neither player has reached his ceiling and both potentially address the other team's needs.

What is Reinhart's two-way game like? Is he responsible in his own end? Do Buffalo fans think he can handle the defensive responsibilities of center in the NHL?

Problem is the Sabres can't afford to take risks like that. We don't have a single position of strength on our roster to deal from -- we have 3 good forwards (maybe 4 with Mittelstadt), 2 good D (maybe 3 with Guhle), and no goaltending. Robbing Peter to pay Paul won't make us a better team, and robbing Peter and still not paying Paul makes us even worse than we already are. At best, we come away from a trade like that in a neutral position overall, just with a different hole to fill.

As I said earlier in the thread, the only way I'm moving Reinhart is if someone offers something stupid for him.

 

[inthewings]

I wouldn't count on Reinhart putting 70 points next year after 3 straight years of mid forties points.

I don't think anyone is counting on 70 points from Reinhart, but it's certainly on the table when a 22-year old has been at that level in his most recent 40 games.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't think anyone is counting on 70 points from Reinhart, but it's certainly on the table when a 22-year old has been at that level in his most recent 40 games.

Read the post I was replying too.

Think it is a big stretch to suddenly jump like 20 points after a few years in the NHL.

 

[inthewings]

Read the post I was replying too.

Think it is a big stretch to suddenly jump like 20 points after a few years in the NHL.

I read the post you replied to. It stated:

Next year if he continues his development we could be looking at a very good two way player makes very few mistakes and scored 30 goals and 40 assists and that may not be his ceiling.

"We could be looking at"

This is how multi-page arguments start on this site. He's not counting on Reinhart for 70 points. He's saying he could put up 70 points. Given that he has 18 goals and 36 points in his last 40 games, I think saying what he's saying could happen next year is pretty reasonable. The transformation might have already happened.

Of course he might also have another 45-point season, but displaying the ability to play like a 70-point player over his most recent 40-games suggests that 70 points might be on the table next year.

 

[MagnumForce2]

I wouldn't count on Reinhart putting 70 points next year after 3 straight years of mid forties points.

I am not saying he will either but as he matures and the the Sabres gets better, there is a strong likelihood his stats will continue to improve also.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I read the post you replied to. It stated:



"We could be looking at"

This is how multi-page arguments start on this site. He's not counting on Reinhart for 70 points. He's saying he could put up 70 points. Given that he has 18 goals and 36 points in his last 40 games, I think saying what he's saying could happen next year is pretty reasonable. The transformation might have already happened.

Of course he might also have another 45-point season, but displaying the ability to play like a 70-point player over his most recent 40-games suggests that 70 points might be on the table next year.

He also could be a slow starter that does the same thing next season and so ends up around 45 points. Being consistent over the 82 game season is key.

The poster stated that a 70 point season may not be his ceiling. I think that is a little rich considering he has never put up 50 points let alone 70.

 

[Jame]

Read the post I was replying too.

Think it is a big stretch to suddenly jump like 20 points after a few years in the NHL.

Scheifele in his 6th post draft year. Next year will be Reinhart’s 5th post draft year

 

[inthewings]

He also could be a slow starter that does the same thing next season and so ends up around 45 points. Being consistent over the 82 game season is key.

The poster stated that a 70 point season may not be his ceiling. I think that is a little rich considering he has never put up 50 points let alone 70.

I'm not sure why you're pointing out to me that 45 points is in the group of reasonably projected outcomes, given that I stated exactly that in the post you're responding to. Are you reading these posts before replying? It seems like you're just skimming them.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Scheifele in his 6th post draft year. Next year will be Reinhart’s 5th post draft year

Scheifele also had a pretty consistent increase production every year while Reinhart hasn't managed to better his first season by that much.

He hasn't made it over the 50 point bracket while Scheifele put up 61 points in 71 games before putting up 82 in 79 games.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I'm not sure why you're pointing out to me that 45 points is in the group of reasonably projected outcomes, given that I stated exactly that in the post you're responding to. Are you reading these posts before replying? It seems like you're just skimming them.

Because I think it is far more likely that he puts up ~45 points again than putting up 70 points next year.

The part I really didn't like and why I replied to the OP was that a 70 point season could not even be Reinhart's ceiling. All evidence points to the opposite and so I think that projection doesn't really have much of a basis.

 

[inthewings]

Because I think it is far more likely that he puts up ~45 points again than putting up 70 points next year.

The part I really didn't like and why I replied to the OP was that a 70 point season could not even be Reinhart's ceiling. All evidence points to the opposite and so I think that projection doesn't really have much of a basis.

I don't even like terms like ceiling and floor when it comes to discussing potential. They mean something different to different people. The guy you quoted might think there's a 5% chance he puts up 80 points some day (probably reasonable) or he might think there's a 30% chance he puts up 100 points some day (that's probably not reasonable).

You guys probably aren't even arguing about the same thing though.

 

[57special]

Well, he just had a hat trick, so it's probably doubled, at least here on HFB.

 

[David Suzuki]

If the Habs tumble down to, say, 9th overall I wonder if they'd explore that. Does Reinhart play centre full time?

 

[Aladyyn]

Reinhart is very responsible in his own zone. Rarely out of position and makes smart quick plays. While I wouldn't describe him as a defensive stalwart, he is above average and reliable. My only real knock on Sam is he seems to be out-muscled far too easily along the boards. He's effectively useless in the corners because I don't think he's ever won a physical battle at the NHL level. It's a good thing that he has that coveted high hockey IQ because otherwise he wouldn't be able to play in the NHL at all. Hopefully he can bulk up a bit more as he matures.

He's won a f***ton of puck battles. Just because he doesn't knock people over to do it doesn't mean he's not good at it...

 

[bryan1966]

Sabres should hang on to SR. He still has a lot of potential that I believe he will reach. As many stated Sabres have many holes still, so a strong draft his year and good young core should make them a strong team in 2 to 3 years.

Unless over payment is offered obviously you move him.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

One of the great things about Reinhart is you never have to worry about Reinhart. What I mean by that is defensive coverage is good, offensively he is always around the puck. On top of that he is a great kid and has a good head on his shoulders. Guys like this you want on your team. He is just all around solid.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

These posts were also before Nelson emerged as an actual NHL Dman and Guhle was up. We now have more D slots filled with serviceable D. At the time we had Tennyson and Falk playing. We needed D and we still need D. If we get Dahlin that changes a lot of things in terms of team needs. I'd probably wait for the draft until I go into discussing trades again. As I said at the time Sam was looking like a failure. And 42 and 47 point seasons for a healthy 2nd overall is not much, just FYI. And he has 47 in 78 this year as well, nothing groundbreaking but at least he's finally trending up.

delete

 

[CatsforReinhart]

I don't think anyone is counting on 70 points from Reinhart, but it's certainly on the table when a 22-year old has been at that level in his most recent 40 games.

He had 13 points in is first 45 games
He has 34 points in his last 33 games.

I would say he could get 70 points if he turned the corner Why not?

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

If you guys don't win the draft lottery, would something like Hanifin for Reinhart work? Both are former top 5 picks and both are RFAs this offseason.

What a novel concept

 

[Jame]

Scheifele also had a pretty consistent increase production every year while Reinhart hasn't managed to better his first season by that much.

He hasn't made it over the 50 point bracket while Scheifele put up 61 points in 71 games before putting up 82 in 79 games.

They both went back to juniors in their 1st post draft season.

In their 2nd post draft season... Reinhart was in the NHL (42 in 79/0.53 per), while Scheifele was back to juniors.

3rd post draft year
Scheifele: 34 in 63 : 0.54 pts per game
Reinhart: 47 in 79: 0.59 pts per game

4th post draft year
Scheifele: 49 in 82 : 0.60 pts per game
Reinhart: 47 in 78: 0.60 pts per game

You've also heard Sabres fans talk a lot about his development in the 2nd half of this season (4th post draft year).

Here's a breakdown of Scheifele's 4th post draft year
1st 40 games: 19 points
Next 42 games: 30 points

Low and behold, projecting on that 2nd half of his 4th post draft year... Scheifele was on a near 60 point pace.... and what did he do in his next season? That's right... posted his first 60 point season, followed by his first 80 point season the following year

His 2nd half in that 4th post draft season... is very similar to what Sabres fans are pointing out about Reinhart:

1st 40 games: 13 points
Next 38 games: 34 points

I feel pretty comfortable with Reinhart's development and trajectory. Not everyone comes in to the league a star... some guys, like Reinhart, follow a path like Scheifele's... developing their game, a little slower, but methodically.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

They both went back to juniors in their 1st post draft season.

In their 2nd post draft season... Reinhart was in the NHL (42 in 79/0.53 per), while Scheifele was back to juniors.

3rd post draft year
Scheifele: 34 in 63 : 0.54 pts per game
Reinhart: 47 in 79: 0.59 pts per game

4th post draft year
Scheifele: 49 in 82 : 0.60 pts per game
Reinhart: 47 in 78: 0.60 pts per game

Scheifele's first 3 years in the NHL saw his Point per game go from 0.54, to 0.6 to 0.86 while Reinhart's has gone from 0.53, 0.59 to 0.60.

Going off that evidence, the breakout season for Scheifele was easy to predict while for Reinhart it looks more like he will hover around the low 50s point mark.

We will see, always hard to predict but I just don't see Reinhart putting up 70 points next year

 

[Jame]

Scheifele's first 3 years in the NHL saw his Point per game go from 0.54, to 0.6 to 0.86 while Reinhart's has gone from 0.53, 0.59 to 0.60.

Going off that evidence, the breakout season for Scheifele was easy to predict while for Reinhart it looks more like he will hover around the low 50s point mark.

See the rest of my response (edited/updated).

You are ignoring that Scheifele spent an extra season in juniors. I compared their same seasons. And showed that their trajectory is identical.

You can ignore. Doesn't change it.

Scheifele's 0.86 season, is NEXT YEAR for Reinhart.

 

[Zip15]

You think Reinhart has lived up to his #2 selection? He's not even been playing center, even when Eichel was out of the lineup. And I admitted that Faulk was having a down year. Don't try to preach to me about being underhanded, you are way off base.

You don't trade a very good player just because he hasn't lived up being the 2nd overall pick. He's most definitely been a top-10 player from that draft, even on a team with an awful offense and a blueline that struggles to get the puck up ice.

If you guys don't win the draft lottery, would something like Hanifin for Reinhart work? Both are former top 5 picks and both are RFAs this offseason.

Nah. If we don't win the lottery, we'll just pick Hughes, Boqvist, or whichever defenseman Botts likes best. I like Hanifin, but Buffalo also needs players like Reinhart. We can't rob Peter to pay Paul.

 

[Thorvat]

Curious how Sabres fans see Reinhart fitting in with the addition of Skinner and Dahlin and what they see as his present value as well as needs for the sabres in a trade.

 

[Digable5]

Curious how Sabres fans see Reinhart fitting in with the addition of Skinner and Dahlin and what they see as his present value as well as needs for the sabres in a trade.

Skinner filled a giant hole on the left side so it doesn’t change really anything for Sammy. Should make Reinhart better by playing with Skinner or Sheary every shift.

If they were to trade him the biggest need is probably RHD or now top 6 RW (the hole created by trading Reinhart).