Player Discussion Sam Reinhart, Part II: The Contract

[Aladyyn]

Nice excuses. Do you ever wonder why people call him a passenger player?

Because they lack understanding of the game?

 

[joshjull]

Nice excuses. Do you ever wonder why people call him a passenger player?

People do that?

 

[Fezzy126]

Nice excuses. Do you ever wonder why people call him a passenger player?

I don't think he's a passenger, I just think the main premise of the article has flaws. People around here have largely given up hope of Sam being a center that can drive his own line, I have not. It didn't work in the first 15 games of last year, but what did with this team?

I think while some of his struggles can be attributes to linemates/chemistry/fit, the article ignores that the entire team struggled in the first half of the year, including the PP, which is not affected by even strength line construction.

 

[Aladyyn]

To be fair the PP struggles in the 1st half were mostly because for whatever reason our coaching staff didn't use the unit that was best in the league in 2016-17...

 

[Yatzhee]

Because they lack understanding of the game?

I give you props Aladyn. You stuck by your guy when many of us, myself included, didn't see the Reinhart we "wanted". That all changed for me when Jack went down. Sam really stepped up, and it changed my outlook on him completely. While I'm no hockey guru to be sure, I have played and followed the Sabres especially for since before I can remember, which is the early 70's. I openly admit I was dead wrong about Sam. A tip of the hat to you, I'm hoping we keep Sam and ROR together, there appears to be chemistry there.

 

[sabrebuild]

I don't think he's a passenger, I just think the main premise of the article has flaws. People around here have largely given up hope of Sam being a center that can drive his own line, I have not. It didn't work in the first 15 games of last year, but what did with this team?

I think while some of his struggles can be attributes to linemates/chemistry/fit, the article ignores that the entire team struggled in the first half of the year, including the PP, which is not affected by even strength line construction.

Puck luck as well. So many chances created by him or anticipated and he couldn’t have scored to save his life.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

Nice excuses. Do you ever wonder why people call him a passenger player?

Wait, people actually refer to him as a passenger player???

 

[Icicle]

To be fair the PP struggles in the 1st half were mostly because for whatever reason our coaching staff didn't use the unit that was best in the league in 2016-17...

They started the season with it and abandoned it after it wasn't scoring for a bunch of games, which then also sucked for a while until they then reverted back again.

 

[Fezzy126]

To be fair the PP struggles in the 1st half were mostly because for whatever reason our coaching staff didn't use the unit that was best in the league in 2016-17...

I admit that my memory is bit cloudy because some time has passed, but from my recollection the biggest frustrations with the 1st PP were:
1) KO's ineffectiveness - he was a turnover/bad decision waiting to happen. This basically rendered our unit useless if the other team shaded toward Eichel.
2) Puck luck - Eichel definitely was getting his shot; the big one-timer from the left half wall. But for whatever reason he wasn't able to score on it. Reinhart was at the net-front, but wasn't getting the deflections/screens. I'm sure there were some minor details/adjustments that they had to make, but their zone entries, puck control, shot selection all looked similar to the last 2 years.

Overall, the unit was extremely stationary, which has always been disappointing to watch. However, that wasn't any different from the last two years when we were still rather successful. But they did appear to improve a bit once we implemented some behind the net plays with Sam and ROR.

 

[ZZamboni]

Wait, people actually refer to him as a passenger player???

Yes, the ignorant ones do.

 

[Chainshot]

I admit that my memory is bit cloudy because some time has passed, but from my recollection the biggest frustrations with the 1st PP were:
1) KO's ineffectiveness - he was a turnover/bad decision waiting to happen. This basically rendered our unit useless if the other team shaded toward Eichel.
2) Puck luck - Eichel definitely was getting his shot; the big one-timer from the left half wall. But for whatever reason he wasn't able to score on it. Reinhart was at the net-front, but wasn't getting the deflections/screens. I'm sure there were some minor details/adjustments that they had to make, but their zone entries, puck control, shot selection all looked similar to the last 2 years.

Overall, the unit was extremely stationary, which has always been disappointing to watch. However, that wasn't any different from the last two years when we were still rather successful. But they did appear to improve a bit once we implemented some behind the net plays with Sam and ROR.

I recall beating the drum often that I would worry when the chances stopped coming for Reinhart. They didn't stop getting chances - though as Woodhouse pointed out, there were issues with some of where shots were coming from - and then things started going in for him and his linemates.

That low play with either of Reinhart or O'Reilly drag moving to their forehand in tight augmented by the bang-bang pass to the low slot certainly made for another option teams had to defend. It'll be interesting to see if Okposo keeps his PP1 time on RW or if that becomes either Mittelstadt's or Dahlin's eventually. He struggled so hard and so many plays died on his stick. Hopefully a summer of rewiring and training will have him back closer to normal.

 

[Crazy Tasty]

I recall beating the drum often that I would worry when the chances stopped coming for Reinhart. They didn't stop getting chances - though as Woodhouse pointed out, there were issues with some of where shots were coming from - and then things started going in for him and his linemates.

That low play with either of Reinhart or O'Reilly drag moving to their forehand in tight augmented by the bang-bang pass to the low slot certainly made for another option teams had to defend. It'll be interesting to see if Okposo keeps his PP1 time on RW or if that becomes either Mittelstadt's or Dahlin's eventually. He struggled so hard and so many plays died on his stick. Hopefully a summer of rewiring and training will have him back closer to normal.

KO and McCabe having bounce back years could have a huge impact on this team. I think (hope) they both can.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

KO and McCabe having bounce back years could have a huge impact on this team. I think (hope) they both can.

If it's true that KO's health issues last offseason prevented him from getting into proper shape, then it's very likely that next season would be a return to normal for him - assuming he does the work this offseason.

McCabe is a big question mark for me - did he just suck at playing/adapting to housley's system? has he truly regressed and is now a bottom pairing/7th man? Was there a nagging injury that prevented him from playing to his full capacity?
There is just no way to know for sure what's going on and i say right now it's a 50/50 shot that he comes back and picks up his game or continues his epic suckage.

 

[Gras]

If it's true that KO's health issues last offseason prevented him from getting into proper shape, then it's very likely that next season would be a return to normal for him - assuming he does the work this offseason.

McCabe is a big question mark for me - did he just suck at playing/adapting to housley's system? has he truly regressed and is now a bottom pairing/7th man? Was there a nagging injury that prevented him from playing to his full capacity?
There is just no way to know for sure what's going on and i say right now it's a 50/50 shot that he comes back and picks up his game or continues his epic suckage.

He was playing with a shoulder injury, then he had the hand injury, when they shut him down for the hand injury they decided to have him do the shoulder surgery during the season.

 

[debaser66]

He was playing with a shoulder injury, then he had the hand injury, when they shut him down for the hand injury they decided to have him do the shoulder surgery during the season.

Maybe it was the shoulder that his passing was so bad

 

[Aladyyn]

So here's a thought. If O'Reilly is traded, does that completely kill the bridge deal option for Reinhart?

 

[sabrebuild]

So here's a thought. If O'Reilly is traded, does that completely kill the bridge deal option for Reinhart?

Why? And as per usual with a RoR trade, are you taking back salary and vets or is it a futures deal.

 

[Aladyyn]

Why? And as per usual with a RoR trade, are you taking back salary and vets or is it a futures deal.

Reinhart knows he plays his best hockey with ROR. He would take a bridge deal under the assumption that they'll play together because duh, Botts wants to win. If ROR is traded, why take the risk? It's not like they'll make him sit out any games.

 

[Icicle]

Reinhart knows he plays his best hockey with ROR. He would take a bridge deal under the assumption that they'll play together because duh, Botts wants to win. If ROR is traded, why take the risk? It's not like they'll make him sit out any games.

Without ROR he’d likely get paired with Eichel. He’d be happy to reunite.

 

[sabrebuild]

Reinhart knows he plays his best hockey with ROR. He would take a bridge deal under the assumption that they'll play together because duh, Botts wants to win. If ROR is traded, why take the risk? It's not like they'll make him sit out any games.

I’m clearly on record as saying a bridge for Reinhart is straight up stupid.

Having said that, if Samson has the mentality you described, I don’t want him long term.

If I was his agent, regardless of RoR availability, I wouldn’t accept a bridge deal for less than 3.75 a year anyway. Be the worst team in the league and refuse to pay your likely second best goal scorer.

 

[Jame]

If Reinhart gets either of

1) 2-3 years bridge deal with 4,5 million cap hit or
2) 6 year deal with 6 million cap hit

The whole management should be fired on the spot. And I'm not kidding.

The first option would mean you're handing Reinhart the second most expensive bridge deal in the fricking history of NHL. That is pretty much the same amount of money that Nikita Kucherov got. And that is +1 million more than players like Palat, Johnson and Stone got after their ELCs. On RFA years that's A TON. Reinhart isn't even close to those players in any terms when they got their contracts.

That 6x6 contract is MacKinnon/Scheifele contract with less term. That would be over 1 million more than Aleksander Wennberg got after his 60 point campaign as a center.

Reinhart hasn't established him as a center, he hasn't carried a top-6 line (or any line, to be more precise) and his production is way worse than any of those players mentioned. I think there is at least one poster who should have learnt that just because you're a fan boy doesn't mean that you should hand stupid contracts.

With Reinhart it's either a 2 year bridge deal with around 3 million cap hit or 6 year deal around 4-4,5 cap hit. One year bridge with around 2 million is also an option. Any other is not likely, at least if our management isn't totally out to lunch.

A year ago:
Jonathan Drouin first 3 seasons / 4 post draft years / 3rd overall pick / 22 yrs old
164 games / 29 goals (0.18 per gams) / 95 points (0.58 per game)
Signed 6 years / 5.5 per

Today:
Sam Reinhart first 3 seasons / 4 post draft years / 2nd overall pick / 22 yrs old
240 games / 65 goals (0.27 per game) / 139 points (0.58 per game)

The Scheifele compare is pretty interesting.... one could argue that the 60 point season which Scheifele had before getting his long term deal... is actually the season which Reinhart is headed in to. And their performance trends align fairly well....

They both went back to juniors in their 1st post draft season.

In their 2nd post draft season... Reinhart was in the NHL (42 in 79/0.53 per), while Scheifele was back to juniors.

3rd post draft year
Scheifele: 34 in 63 : 0.54 pts per game
Reinhart: 47 in 79: 0.59 pts per game

4th post draft year
Scheifele: 49 in 82 : 0.60 pts per game
Reinhart: 50 in 82 : 0.61 pts per game

We talk a lot about Reinhart's development in the 2nd half of this season (4th post draft year).

Here's a breakdown of Scheifele's 4th post draft year
1st 40 games: 19 points
Next 42 games: 30 points

Low and behold, projecting on that 2nd half of his 4th post draft year... Scheifele was on a near 60 point pace.... and what did he do in his next season? That's right... posted his first 60+ point season, followed by his first 80 point season the following year

His 2nd half in that 4th post draft season... is very similar to what some of us point to with regards to Reinhart and the growth he showed.

Reinhart's 4th post draft year:
1st 40 games: 13 points
Next 42 games: 37 points

I feel pretty comfortable with Reinhart's development and trajectory (I always have). Not everyone comes in to the league a star... some guys, like Reinhart, follow a path like Scheifele's... developing their game, a little slower, but methodically.

So between what Drouin got for lesser production (5.5 x 6) and what Scheifele got for his breakout 60 point campaign (6.125 x 8)... I'd be very happy to split the difference.

Because the question isn't just "what's the market say he should get on a long term deal.... because if you blindly hold out, and land the 2 year bridge... you then need to consider what he costs if he puts up similar numbers to Schiefele's 5th post draft year (61) and 6th post draft year (82) while on the bridge deal.

 

[Aladyyn]

Reinhart hasn't carried any line except literally every line he's ever been on.

 

[Jamie Walker]

i'm for an eight year deal.

 

[hizzoner]

Wait, people actually refer to him as a passenger player???

Yeah That is plane silly.

 

[BananaSquad]

Reinhart is basically a worse ROR, but if I can get him cheaper than ROR I’d rather keep him, which obviously the sabres will get Reinhart cheaper than 7.5 a year.