Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[Montag DP]

Shoot, Sam should have the same expectations as Eichel? We'd better lock him up for $11M!

Strawman argument noted. I said I would like him to drive his own line, not put up 90+ points while doing it.

 

[Samsonite23]

Strange how we are allowed to have really high expectations for some players (Eichel), and criticize them harshly when they don't perform to those expectations, but we have to be content with 65 points as a complementary winger out of the other guy we tanked for. He is capable of more, and he was drafted with the expectation to be more, so sorry if it rubs you the wrong way when I say it.

Not really sure what your expectations were for Sam Reinhart honestly. He's almost exactly where I'd thought/hoped he would be at this point in his career (70-ish point, 2-way player that makes everybody who he plays with better). The only difference is he isn't playing center, which isn't his fault.

It was pretty unrealistic to think of him as a 80-90 point player at this point is his career when he was drafted.

 

[Montag DP]

Not really sure what your expectations were for Sam Reinhart honestly. He's almost exactly where I'd thought/hoped he would be at this point in his career (70-ish point, 2-way player that makes everybody who he plays with better). The only difference is he isn't playing center, which isn't his fault.

It was pretty unrealistic to think of him as a 80-90 point player at this point is his career when he was drafted.

I think his ceiling is exactly what you said, but doing it while driving his own line, i.e. without Eichel 5-on-5. Realistically speaking, he would not be a 70-ish point player today if he were playing on the second line.

Ideally, right now I would like to see Sam on the same line as Skinner. Let's challenge him while at the same time hopefully get Skinner going again.

 

[Jim Bob]

I would be okay with that, though I will point out that comparing Reinhart and Skinner on the basis of points seems intentionally misleading to me. No one expects Skinner to put up a lot of assists.

Reinhart's side will be making the argument that supports their request.

Given the big contract the Sabres just gave to a winger that Reinhart will out-produce from a points POV last year and this year, I would expect that comparison would come up when it's time to talk contract.

 

[Chainshot]

Finding comps is interesting. Pastrnak signed his 8.89% of cap deal after a single 30-goal season. He'll be UFA at the end of it, though I would expect the Bruins to make sure he is extended prior to him ever sniffing unrestricted free agency. His deal bought 2 UFA years at the end, both with limited NTC (10-teams). He's a great fit for Bergeron and Marchand. Reinhart's deal will be going further into UFA years, so that would likely drive it up. 8.89% on an $82.5 million cap is $7.33M AAV for what it's worth. What will those UFA years be worth? How much term and what are the conditions on the deal going to be valued at? Some level of movement clause seems likely, but does that push the AAV down a bit as part of the negotiations?

At this point, is he a 10% of cap player? Or is he around a 9% of cap player?

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I'm perfectly happy with Reinhart's progression and production. I wouldn't mind seeing him on a line away from Eichel, but that's strictly a coaching issue. His next contract shouldn't be over 8 mil AAV though. Skinner got paid based on more years of consistent production with UFA status. Reinhart simply won't have those factors going for him as much. Any contract for 8 years and under 8 mil per is a win, but I highly doubt whatever contract is agreed upon will be worth getting upset over.

 

[mechaworm]

Strawman argument noted. I said I would like him to drive his own line, not put up 90+ points while doing it.

If by "drive his own line," you mean produce away from Eichel, I think he could.

But I think he needs to play with scorers in general. And we knew that when we drafted him. His skillset is as a playmaker. He doesn't do one-man rushes. He has to have someone to pass to with a little bit of speed and hands. Put him with Johansson and Olofsson, I think Sam would be scoring at basically the same pace as he is now.

If you want him to produce 60+ with Girgensons and Vesey, though, he won't, and never should have been expected to. And that's the difference between him and Jack. Or him and Skinner, for that matter. Skinner could be putting up 50 points with Girgensons and Vesey, or he could be putting up 60 points with Jack freaking Eichel, because Skinner starts shit and Skinner finishes shit (whether that's a giveaway or a goal, he still finishes it).

I can see how fans of a team largely bereft of talent for a decade would take Skinner over Reinhart in that situation. You value the guy with the low floor, who can't be negated by your disaster of a roster. But not necessarily the guy with the higher ceiling, who gets the most out of a talented line.

 

[joshjull]

Finding comps is interesting. Pastrnak signed his 8.89% of cap deal after a single 30-goal season. He'll be UFA at the end of it, though I would expect the Bruins to make sure he is extended prior to him ever sniffing unrestricted free agency. His deal bought 2 UFA years at the end, both with limited NTC (10-teams). He's a great fit for Bergeron and Marchand. Reinhart's deal will be going further into UFA years, so that would likely drive it up. 8.89% on an $82.5 million cap is $7.33M AAV for what it's worth. What will those UFA years be worth? How much term and what are the conditions on the deal going to be valued at? Some level of movement clause seems likely, but does that push the AAV down a bit as part of the negotiations?

At this point, is he a 10% of cap player? Or is he around a 9% of cap player?

I’m wondering if this deal ends up being 4 or 5 years to keep the cap hit lower.

 

[jc17]

I think the interesting question is whether Sam has enough reputation around the league to garner that $7-8M offersheet for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

Botterill bet he could squeeze Sam last time. He did. He got away with it once. I'd bet he's going to underbid the same player again. In which case the question becomes how does Sam push back.

I think that's easily matched.

Most 1st round picks aren't becoming as productive as sam in the NHL, and a 2nd and 3rd isn't enough to make up the difference

 

[Chainshot]

I'm perfectly happy with Reinhart's progression and production. I wouldn't mind seeing him on a line away from Eichel, but that's strictly a coaching issue. His next contract shouldn't be over 8 mil AAV though. Skinner got paid based on more years of consistent production with UFA status. Reinhart simply won't have those factors going for him as much. Any contract for 8 years and under 8 mil per is a win, but I highly doubt whatever contract is agreed upon will be worth getting upset over.

I'm hoping their at right around $8M or a smidge under too, without too many movement clause constraints as well (say, some range with a 6-10 team NTC) or any weird bonus years.

 

[Sabretooth]

Using some other comps, is the 8.76% of cap for AAV still something people would be okay with?

I think that's an almost best case scenario depending on term.

I think the absolute floor I could argue would be the Huberdeau contract (6 years 8.08%).

Hub: ELC with 1 slide year, followed by 2 year bridge @4.45%
Sam: ELC with 1 slide year, followed by 2 year bridge @4.59%

Production at same point in development is similar as well:

Contract year -2 (least year of ELC): 15-39-54 vs 25-25-50
Contract year -1 (first year of bridge): 20-39-59 vs 22-43-65
Here's where things deviate. Huberdeau extended in sept 2016, prior to the second year of his bridge, so the fact that he had a shortened "contract year" or has now broken out into a >ppg player in the 2nd and 3rd seasons of his 6 year extension don't matter.

If we wanted to lock sam in at close to huberdeau money Botts should have been immediately been throwing that contract at his agent before this season. Sam has edged above Huberdeau in production, and has this year to add to case. 8.o8 of today's cap is already $6.58M per for 6 years. He's better than Huberdeau when Huberdeau signed that contract ergo he's getting at least $7M per on a 6 year contract and that number likely only goes up if we want to lock him in longer.

 

[Chainshot]

I think that's easily matched.

Most 1st round picks aren't becoming as productive as sam in the NHL, and a 2nd and 3rd isn't enough to make up the difference

Like with Aho last year, that compensation level usually is just doing some of the negotiation work for the original team. They aren't in a cap crisis, so it would be an easy match.

 

[mechaworm]

He would have gotten it on the market,

I actually think Skinner would've gotten less on the open market, given how the rest of the UFA market shaped up.

 

[Montag DP]

If by "drive his own line," you mean produce away from Eichel, I think he could.

But I think he needs to play with scorers in general. And we knew that when we drafted him. His skillset is as a playmaker. He doesn't do one-man rushes. He has to have someone to pass to with a little bit of speed and hands. Put him with Johansson and Olofsson, I think Sam would be scoring at basically the same pace as he is now.

If you want him to produce 60+ with Girgensons and Vesey, though, he won't, and never should have been expected to. And that's the difference between him and Jack. Or him and Skinner, for that matter. Skinner could be putting up 50 points with Girgensons and Vesey, or he could be putting up 60 points with Jack freaking Eichel, because Skinner starts **** and Skinner finishes **** (whether that's a giveaway or a goal, he still finishes it).

I can see how fans of a team largely bereft of talent for a decade would take Skinner over Reinhart in that situation. You value the guy with the low floor, who can't be negated by your disaster of a roster. But not necessarily the guy with the higher ceiling, who gets the most out of a talented line.

Well, a couple posts back I advocated for him on a line with Skinner. I agree with you that he needs to have goal scorers on his line. Here is what I would like to see once Olofsson is healthy:

Girgensons-Eichel-Olofsson
Skinner-Johansson-Reinhart

 

[Samsonite23]

I think his ceiling is exactly what you said, but doing it while driving his own line, i.e. without Eichel 5-on-5. Realistically speaking, he would not be a 70-ish point player today if he were playing on the second line.

Ideally, right now I would like to see Sam on the same line as Skinner. Let's challenge him while at the same time hopefully get Skinner going again.

I would love to see Sam with Skinner.

But again, I don't think he has been disappointing overall in the slightest. We have seen him drive his line away from Jack in limited time, and the stats back that up.

Over the last two seasons his GF% with and without Jack on the ice is:

52.9% and 51.28%

 

[Montag DP]

I would love to see Sam with Skinner.

But again, I don't think he has been disappointing overall in the slightest. We have seen him drive his line away from Jack in limited time, and the stats back that up.

Over the last two seasons his GF% with and without Jack on the ice is:

52.9% and 51.28%

If he can really produce at the same rate without Eichel, that just highlights the stupidity of not letting him do it.

 

[Samsonite23]

If he can really produce at the same rate without Eichel, that just highlights the stupidity of not letting him do it.

I think we're all in agreement there.

 

[joshjull]

If he can really produce at the same rate without Eichel, that just highlights the stupidity of not letting him do it.

Thats not what that stat means. Nor is GF% really a great way to measure this.

 

[mechaworm]

I think that's easily matched.

Most 1st round picks aren't becoming as productive as sam in the NHL, and a 2nd and 3rd isn't enough to make up the difference

I think it SHOULD be matched. Do you trust this GM to do so?

I can see Botts offering $4.5 and hoping to settle on $5.5, seeing how the last negotiation went. In which case Sam's camp would be spreading this message around the league, and this situation will play out into August at least anyways, so there'll be other contracts on the roster by that point, too.

So if I'm willing to offer Sam $8 or even $8.5, and lose the picks, and I know the Sabres are offering a full $3M less, I might feel like I actually have a shot, not because the picks > Sam, but because Buffalo's stupid and wouldn't want to pay the player.

My original question, of course, is whether Sam has enough reputation around the league for this bidder to exist. Because if the bidder doesn't exist, Sam might have to take another lowball offer from Botts. And that's what I'm wondering. I could see Sam signing something like a 3 year deal at $5M because he can't get an offer from anyone but Botts and just aim to hit UFA as soon as he can.

 

[Montag DP]

Thats not what that stat means. Nor is GF% really a great way to measure this.

I agree. That's why I used "if." I didn't really feel like arguing that point with him.

 

[Jame]

Strange how we are allowed to have really high expectations for some players (Eichel), and criticize them harshly when they don't perform to those expectations, but we have to be content with 65 points as a complementary winger out of the other guy we tanked for. He is capable of more, and he was drafted with the expectation to be more, so sorry if it rubs you the wrong way when I say it.

2016 wants its argument back

 

[Jame]

I think the interesting question is whether Sam has enough reputation around the league to garner that $7-8M offersheet for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

Botterill bet he could squeeze Sam last time. He did. He got away with it once. I'd bet he's going to underbid the same player again. In which case the question becomes how does Sam push back.

by going to arbitration and asking for 9 million while pointing out that he’s scored more than Skinner’s career high... twice.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think it SHOULD be matched. Do you trust this GM to do so?

I can see Botts offering $4.5 and hoping to settle on $5.5, seeing how the last negotiation went. In which case Sam's camp would be spreading this message around the league, and this situation will play out into August at least anyways, so there'll be other contracts on the roster by that point, too.

So if I'm willing to offer Sam $8 or even $8.5, and lose the picks, and I know the Sabres are offering a full $3M less, I might feel like I actually have a shot, not because the picks > Sam, but because Buffalo's stupid and wouldn't want to pay the player.

My original question, of course, is whether Sam has enough reputation around the league for this bidder to exist. Because if the bidder doesn't exist, Sam might have to take another lowball offer from Botts. And that's what I'm wondering. I could see Sam signing something like a 3 year deal at $5M because he can't get an offer from anyone but Botts and just aim to hit UFA as soon as he can.

If Botts lowballs Reinhart @ $5M, I would expect him to opt for arbitration and just force things so that he hits UFA ASAP.

 

[Montag DP]

2016 wants its argument back

This is why it's a waste of time discussing anything with you. You think a trite, meaningless one-liner amounts to a rebuttal.

 

[Jame]

I think his ceiling is exactly what you said, but doing it while driving his own line, i.e. without Eichel 5-on-5. Realistically speaking, he would not be a 70-ish point player today if he were playing on the second line.

Ideally, right now I would like to see Sam on the same line as Skinner. Let's challenge him while at the same time hopefully get Skinner going again.

This “drive his own line” argument is just the last vestiges for those who’ve been wrong about Reinhart for years.
I don’t want Reinhart to drive his own line, I want him to make our 1st line elite.... which is what he does, by turning our franchise superstar into a winner at ES:
Last 3 seasons: