Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

Chainshot

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As odd as this may sound, I kinda think Olofsson/Sam together away from Jack would be a more deadly 5v5 combo. Sam would have the puck on his stick way more and Olofsson would be the primary shooter he would be looking to set up.

Also an option. they just need someone to do the d-zone and puck retrieval stuff Sam was doing with V_E_R. Perhaps that's Asplund since he has such a knack for working with Olofsson last year? That would then relegate MJ to the IoMT line full time.
 

sabrebuild

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Well, we do have the Byslma and first year Housley times when Reinhart was on the wing with O'Reilly and Jack was with Okposo albeit not under current conditions.

I meant in terms of Eichel being the fully engaged dominant player he is now. I think his personal development has been significant enough from those previous times that he likely could really carry his line with less help, against top competition.

I don't believe, but am too lazy to look up the stats, that Jack was winning his matchup in those two years where they played apart a lot.

My mistake if I was unclear.
 

joshjull

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I meant in terms of Eichel being the fully engaged dominant player he is now. I think his personal development has been significant enough from those previous times that he likely could really carry his line with less help, against top competition.

I don't believe, but am too lazy to look up the stats, that Jack was winning his matchup in those two years where they played apart a lot.

My mistake if I was unclear.

The arguments about Sam being the catalyst or even the main reason Jack has won his matchups last year is so off the mark. Its also such a bad use of the GF% stat by only narrowly focusing on GF% with/without each other.

Take last season and GF% for lines from that season

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins) ——> GF% - 58% / xGF% - 55%
Skinner/Jack no Sam (304mins) -> GF% - 52% / xGF% - 54%
Jack/Sam no Skinner (213mins) -> GF% - 41%. / xGF% -> 53%
Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins) -> GF% - 59%/ xGF% -58%

That gives a much fuller story about last season. Its the story of a line driven primarily by the combo of Skinner/Jack. One that did just as well, if not even a bit better, with Pommer on RW. Jack/Sam without Skinner struggled. One could argue Skinner was the most important member of that line.

Now compare that to just using a narrowly focused GF% of last season for Jack with/without Sam

Jack with Sam (754mins) ——> GF% 53% / xGF% 54%
Jack without Sam (407mins) -> GF% 45%/ xGF% 51%

That gives the impression Jack needed Sam or that Sam was a driver of Jack’s success. Something the fuller picture shows isn’t the case.
 
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joshjull

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I’ve seen Sam play away from Jack with my eyes, and it looked like his line performed well at even strength with players like Sheary, Mitts, Sobotka on it. So I certainly don’t think they’re the players who made the line tick.

So logically, I think about comparing how Sam’s line produces goals for and goals against on the ice with Jack and without Jack. And it’s close.

It’s not some perfect stat. I’m not saying it is. It doesn’t take into account thing like usage, and Sam has spent far more time with Jack on his line than without. But it’s certainly not irrelevant.

The problem though is you're not actually comparing lines by using the GF% stat in that way.

Sam’s GF% away from Jack may be good or bad. We would need to know usage and linemates for that. It may be underachieving in one context or real good in another.

Sam’s GF% being similar with and without Jack tells us very little in the context of the discussion being had.
 
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sabrebuild

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The arguments about Sam being the catalyst or even the main reason Jack has won his matchups last year is so off the mark. Its also such a bad use of the GF% stat by only narrowly focusing on GF% with/without each other.

Take last season and GF% for lines from that season

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins) ——> GF% - 58% / xGF% - 55%
Skinner/Jack no Sam (304mins) -> GF% - 52% / xGF% - 54%
Jack/Sam no Skinner (213mins) -> GF% - 41%. / xGF% -> 53%
Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins) -> GF% - 59%/ xGF% -58%

That gives a much fuller story about last season. Its the story of a line driven primarily by the combo of Skinner/Jack. One that did just as well, if not even a bit better, with Pommer on RW. Jack/Sam without Skinner struggled. One could argue Skinner was the most important member of that line.

Now compare that to just using a narrowly focused GF% of last season for Jack with/without Sam

Jack with Sam (754mins) ——> GF% 53% / xGF% 54%
Jack without Sam (407mins) -> GF% 45%/ xGF% 51%

That gives the impression Jack needed Sam or that Sam was a driver of Jack’s success. Something the fuller picture shows isn’t the case.

I'm not making an argument about fancy stats.

I agree Jack will probably be good without Reinhart. How much of a drop off will happen? I don't know. But I certainly am not basing my argument one way or the other, on whether or not Pominville kept pace, when Skinner and Jack were scoring on every other chance for 12-15 games and it was completely unsustainable.

I personally have high hopes that Jack has taken the next step in his total game to be effective in his top line role without two good wingers.

I personally hope they keep Olofsson with Eichel because I like their skills and balancing the range shooting of VO with Eichel's perimeter passing.

Same thing with Skinner and Reinhart. Reinhart can feed Skinner in tight or let Skinner do his thing and read the play and jump in the gaps.

Please coach give us a chance to see what Skinner can do with some help.
 

Samsonite23

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The problem though is you're not actually comparing lines by using the GF% stat in that way.

Sam’s GF% away from Jack may be good or bad. We would need to know usage and linemates for that. It may be underachieving in one context or real good in another.

Sam’s GF% being similar with and without Jack tells us very little in the context of the discussion being had.

I’m confused by this. Are you referring that times where Jack-Sam are linemates and Jack goes for a line change before Sam (or vise versa at the start of the shift)? If so, do you believe this skews the data enough that we can’t come to a conclusion about Sam’s effect on other lines?

Other than those occasions, Sam and Jack would be on different lines. We know that they’ve been separated for 429 minutes (5 on 5) over the last two seasons (not very much). And we also know that he played on the Sobotka line a good amount last year. We know he played on the Mitts line. And we know the amount of time he’s played with each player (e.g. Sobotka which is 161 minutes and Sheary which is 318 minutes). Considering those players get slaughtered in GF% on a regular basis (especially Sobotka) that seems like enough info to deduce that Sam has had a positive effect on those lines or else his number GF% would be worse than it is away from Jack.
 

joshjull

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I’m confused by this. Are you referring that times where Jack-Sam are linemates and Jack goes for a line change before Sam (or vise versa at the start of the shift)? If so, do you believe this skews the data enough that we can’t come to a conclusion about Sam’s effect on other lines?

Other than those occasions, Sam and Jack would be on different lines. We know that they’ve been separated for 429 minutes (5 on 5) over the last two seasons (not very much). And we also know that he played on the Sobotka line a good amount last year. We know he played on the Mitts line. And we know the amount of time he’s played with each player (e.g. Sheary which is 318 minutes). Considering those players get slaughtered in GF% on a regular basis (especially Sobotka) that seems like enough info to deduce that Sam has had a positive effect on those lines or else his number GF% would be worse than it is away from Jack.

I’l try to clarify things better. Jack/Sam is not a line. Its 2/3rds of one. The other player matters quite a bit to help parse out player impacts.

Take last season and the GF% for Jack’s two most common line combos.

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins) ——> GF% - 58% / xGF% - 55%
Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins) -> GF% - 59%/ xGF% -58%

Now look at Skinner/Jack away from Sam and Jack/Sam away from Skinner.

Skinner/Jack no Sam (304mins) -> GF% - 52% / xGF% - 54%
Jack/Sam no Skinner (213mins) -> GF% - 41%. / xGF% -> 53%

Its pretty clear from these fleshed out numbers it was Skinner last year, not Sam, that had the big positive impact on Jack’s line combos winner their matchups.

Now compare that to just using a narrowly focused GF% of last season for Jack with/without Sam

Jack with Sam (754mins) ——> GF% 53% / xGF% 54%
Jack without Sam (407mins) -> GF% 45%/ xGF% 51%

That gives the impression Sam was a driver of Jack’s success. Something the fuller picture shows isn’t the case. Jack’s good numbers with Sam are due mostly to the 77% of those minutes Skinner was out there with them.
 
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Samsonite23

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I’l try to clarify things better. Jack/Sam is not a line. Its 2/3rds of one. The other player matters quite a bit to help parse out player impacts.

Take last season and the GF% for Jack’s two most common line combos.

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins) ——> GF% - 58% / xGF% - 55%
Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins) -> GF% - 59%/ xGF% -58%

Now look at Sam away from Skinner/Jack away from Sam and Jack/Sam away from Skinner.

Skinner/Jack no Sam (304mins) -> GF% - 52% / xGF% - 54%
Jack/Sam no Skinner (213mins) -> GF% - 41%. / xGF% -> 53%

Its pretty clear from these fleshed out numbers it was Skinner last year, not Sam, that had the big positive impact on Jack’s line combos winner their matchups.

Now compare that to just using a narrowly focused GF% of last season for Jack with/without Sam

Jack with Sam (754mins) ——> GF% 53% / xGF% 54%
Jack without Sam (407mins) -> GF% 45%/ xGF% 51%

That gives the impression Sam was a driver of Jack’s success. Something the fuller picture shows isn’t the case. Jack’s good numbers with Sam are due mostly to the 77% of those minutes Skinner was out there with them.
Thanks. That’s much clearer.

But the only point I was trying to “prove” (not really prove, more argue) was that Sam can drive a line away from Jack. Not Sam’s effect on Jack. I’m with you in that, I think Jack (specifically this year) doesn’t really need Sam on his line to dominate.
 

joshjull

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@Samsonite23

If you dig even deeper it really shows how big of a positive impact Skinner had last season on Jack’s line (regardless of RW) and how negligible Sam’s impact was last year and this one by comparison.

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins)

CF% -> 52%
SCF% -> 54%
HDCF% -> 56%
GF% ——> 58%
xGF% —> 55%

Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins)

CF% —-> 55%
SCF% —> 55%
HDCF% -> 58%
GF% ——-> 60%
xGF% ——> 55%

Olofsson/Jack/Sam (500mins)

CF% ——> 50%
SCF% —-> 50%
HDCF% -> 47%
GF% ——> 52%
xGF% —-> 47%



Skinner/Jack didn’t skip a beat without Sam. Jack/Sam haven't been nearly as good without Skinner. Hard to argue Pommer vs Olofsson should lead to this difference.
 
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Samsonite23

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@joshjull

I get it. I see the argument, and am not going to fight it.

But again, that’s not really what I’m trying to get at. I think Sam defers too much on Jack’s line. On other lines he takes more on aggressive role, and I was trying to show that away from Jack he can drive a line to success.
 

joshjull

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Thanks. That’s much clearer.

But the only point I was trying to “prove” (not really prove, more argue) was that Sam can drive a line away from Jack. Not Sam’s effect on Jack. I’m with you in that, I think Jack (specifically this year) doesn’t really need Sam on his line to dominate.

Fair enough. I’d still say Sam’s GF% away from Jack doesn’t really tell us much about that. I also happen to think Sam could do well as the top dog on a line away from Jack. But I’m not sure we have much in the way of stats to prove that at the moment.
 
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joshjull

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@joshjull

I get it. I see the argument, and am not going to fight it.

But again, that’s not really what I’m trying to get at. I think Sam defers too much on Jack’s line. On other lines he takes more on aggressive role, and I was trying to show that away from Jack he can drive a line to success.
I literally just jumped into making that post after posting my previous one, continuing my thoughts I wasn’t piling on I didn’t even see your response. :laugh:
 
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Icicle

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@Chainshot

As odd as this may sound, I kinda think Olofsson/Sam together away from Jack would be a more deadly 5v5 combo. Sam would have the puck on his stick way more and Olofsson would be the primary shooter he would be looking to set up.

Skinner with Sam gets back to another player other than Sam with the puck the most. I wonder what a Skinner/Jack combo would look like now with Jack’s current shooters mentality. Would it just be each of them taking turns trying to contort the opposing defense? :laugh:
Skinner cleaned up juicy Eichel rebounds for a good chunk of his goals last year.
 

Chainshot

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Paywall, but an interesting article.



John is using straight counting stats over various time horizons to point out that Reinhart is among the top 50 scorers among NHL forwards.

This tidbit was interesting as well -

They are the NHL’s 16th most productive pair this season, combining for points on 23 goals. That’s the same as Boston’s Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, one fewer than Toronto’s Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point.
 
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sabrebuild

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Paywall, but an interesting article.



John is using straight counting stats over various time horizons to point out that Reinhart is among the top 50 scorers among NHL forwards.

This tidbit was interesting as well -


I read the whole article and it never said wallowing in mediocrity?? Sounds like fake news to me.
 

Icicle

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I read the whole article and it never said wallowing in mediocrity?? Sounds like fake news to me.
16th most productive pair for a dude riding the coattails of one of the leagues top-3 allstars isn’t exactly, premium play
 

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