Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[sabrebuild]

At ES, the light bulb seemed to go on around the beginning of November. Here's the team's top 5 over the past 27 games:

View attachment 303805

At pure 5v5 he's a bit lower, ~2 pts/60, but still good. Really wanted to see Larsson get more run with Skinner

Where's Skinner for the year?

 

[Fezzy126]

Where's Skinner for the year?

At ES, Skinner's at 1.76 pts/60, but 1.21 goals/60. His 5v5 are very close to that, since he rarely gets 4 on 4 or OT shifts.

Just for context, here's where his goals have been at historically:

His pts/60 is down from where it's been the past few years.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

I personally believe anything over 6.5 a year for Reinhart is getting into overpayment. He's good at a lot of things but excellent in nothing. I feel many of his points have been a product of playing with either Eichel or ROR. If he was in Skinners position he'd be around 15 to maybe 20 points right now. I just feel that if you take him away from Eichel, he'd fall off a cliff. He's a second line winger lucky enough to be playing with a top center and to me, that's not worth 8 million a year.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

Good teams pay their good players and worry about the rest later.

True. But good teams dont usually overpay all there players either. We already overpayed for Skinner, Buffalo has to be careful if they want to get or keep other talent.

 

[sabrebuild]

So, being mindful of the pace and style of some Reinhart's goals lately, how much would Reinhart breaking 30 goals change his demands? If he does break into the 70s, his resume is just a relentless steady rise of production and skillset.

As much hate as he gets, he is a valuable asset whether you want to keep him or trade him.

I think if he hits ppg and 30+ goals he gets 8 a year. If he stays around 65-70, he takes 7.25.

 

[Icicle]

I personally believe anything over 6.5 a year for Reinhart is getting into overpayment. He's good at a lot of things but excellent in nothing. I feel many of his points have been a product of playing with either Eichel or ROR. If he was in Skinners position he'd be around 15 to maybe 20 points right now. I just feel that if you take him away from Eichel, he'd fall off a cliff. He's a second line winger lucky enough to be playing with a top center and to me, that's not worth 8 million a year.

Eh, Okposo got 6 on a twilight contract to fill that same role. A younger guy signed years later is going to get a little inflation over that. I can see 7-7.5, but 8+ is overpayment. Of course he's in the middle of his second-half of the season heroics again, but year after year of the same disappearing act can't be excused away.

 

[Jame]

So, being mindful of the pace and style of some Reinhart's goals lately, how much would Reinhart breaking 30 goals change his demands? If he does break into the 70s, his resume is just a relentless steady rise of production and skillset.

As much hate as he gets, he is a valuable asset whether you want to keep him or trade him.

I think if he hits ppg and 30+ goals he gets 8 a year. If he stays around 65-70, he takes 7.25.

He’s getting 8 or close to it regardless

 

[Sabretooth]

Of course he's in the middle of his second-half of the season heroics again, but year after year of the same disappearing act can't be excused away.

"1st half disappearing act" is a narrative that should've died in 2018:

'19-20 first 41 games: 12-19-31 2nd half: 4-5-9 (7 games)
'18-19 first 41 games: 9-31-40 2nd half: 13-12-25
'17-18 first 41 games: 7-6-13 2nd half: 18-19-37

60-80pt first half pace last 2 seasons. generational disappearing act perhaps.

 

[sabrebuild]

He’s getting 8 or close to it regardless

What was the top number for 8 off his elc? I keep gaming it out and I just can't imagine that Reinhart credibly thought he would get more than 7 at the absolute most. And even that feels high.

I assume that Reinhart and his agent would credibly put him on the Nylander level. But Draisatl had just created a tier of their draft class at center/wing getting his 8.5 that was clearly a notch above on that elc. Playoff success individually, ppg his last season.

But even Nylander seems like the high end, compared to similar signings around the league, plus the Leaf factor and Dubas' willingness to pay up for the kids.

Level one frustration:. Botts and Reinhart were close on a number, 6.75 for 6 years. Not a super steal of a deal because of the year limit, but also a pretty good deal for a top prospect who has shown consistent improvement. Botts decides he just doesn't trust Reinhart and wants to see the proof.

I hate that. But I can understand where that comes from.

Level 2 frustration:

Botts is appalled that Reinhart wants 6x6, doesn't understand the market for the league and thinks, somehow that it's important to save cap space now, when there is no chance his team is great in the next two years.

Pretty frightening to be honest. But not surprising given a lot of his choices.

Level three:

But I just gave Skinner huge dollars, if I give Reinhart that much and we don't win right away how do I justify appearing to spend like a drunk....

I mean,... Is it out of the realm of possibility?

I honestly hope we find out that Reinhart was crazy and wanted 7.5 for like 5 years, sone weird power move stuff.

 

[Zip15]

I personally believe anything over 6.5 a year for Reinhart is getting into overpayment. He's good at a lot of things but excellent in nothing. I feel many of his points have been a product of playing with either Eichel or ROR. If he was in Skinners position he'd be around 15 to maybe 20 points right now. I just feel that if you take him away from Eichel, he'd fall off a cliff. He's a second line winger lucky enough to be playing with a top center and to me, that's not worth 8 million a year.

That might be the number if Reinhart was willing to take a three- or four-year deal. But he won't be. He's going to want 7 or 8 years, which will buy 5 or 6 UFA years.

Nylander is effectively making $7M on a deal that bought 2 UFA years. You have to imagine Reinhart's camp will want a similar AAV over time time period (the next four seasons), and then go up from there as more UFA years are puchased - and that's setting aside whether his camp wants to make up the difference in money that Willy earned in Year 4 and Year 5 of team control by not getting a bridge. Sam also has the leverage. This organization isn't exactly stocked with talent.

 

[Icicle]

STOP comparing Botterill not extending him earlier with less UFA years than him extending him next season with more UFA years. STOP YOUR ANGRY TIRADE NOW. His AAV will go up because he will want many more UFA years, and that's the chunk of it

 

[Jame]

What was the top number for 8 off his elc? I keep gaming it out and I just can't imagine that Reinhart credibly thought he would get more than 7 at the absolute most. And even that feels high.

I assume that Reinhart and his agent would credibly put him on the Nylander level. But Draisatl had just created a tier of their draft class at center/wing getting his 8.5 that was clearly a notch above on that elc. Playoff success individually, ppg his last season.

But even Nylander seems like the high end, compared to similar signings around the league, plus the Leaf factor and Dubas' willingness to pay up for the kids.

Level one frustration:. Botts and Reinhart were close on a number, 6.75 for 6 years. Not a super steal of a deal because of the year limit, but also a pretty good deal for a top prospect who has shown consistent improvement. Botts decides he just doesn't trust Reinhart and wants to see the proof.

I hate that. But I can understand where that comes from.

Level 2 frustration:

Botts is appalled that Reinhart wants 6x6, doesn't understand the market for the league and thinks, somehow that it's important to save cap space now, when there is no chance his team is great in the next two years.

Pretty frightening to be honest. But not surprising given a lot of his choices.

Level three:

But I just gave Skinner huge dollars, if I give Reinhart that much and we don't win right away how do I justify appearing to spend like a drunk....

I mean,... Is it out of the realm of possibility?

I honestly hope we find out that Reinhart was crazy and wanted 7.5 for like 5 years, sone weird power move stuff.

I look at it simply as the value of RFA and UFA years.... Reinhart is arbitration eligible coming off back to back 65 point seasons. Can we agree that in arbitration he’d get around 5.5-6 per?

Can we use that range as a baseline for the two remaining RFA years?

let’s talk UFA. Botts already set a team benchmark for 60 point players UFA years at 9 million. We can argue about 40 goals, age, etc. Let’s use a range of 8.5-9.0 for Reinharts UFA years. The more years we buy can affect which end of the spectrum we land in.

Year 1: 5.5-6.0
Year 2: 5.5-6.0
Year 3: 8.5-9.0
Year 4: 8.5-9.0

4 year cap: 7.0-7.5

this is my fear, we do a medium range deal to keep cap down.

Year 5: 8.5-9.0
5 year cap: 7.3-7.8

Year 6: 8.5-9.0
6 year cap: 7.5-8.0

Year 7: 8.5-9.0
7 year cap: 7.65-8.15

Year 8: 8.5-9.0
8 year: 7.75-8.25

 

[Zip15]

STOP comparing Botterill not extending him earlier with less UFA years than him extending him next season with more UFA years. STOP YOUR ANGRY TIRADE NOW. His AAV will go up because he will want many more UFA years, and that's the chunk of it

When you put someone on a bridge, they're able to ask for more UFA years at the end of the bridge. That's not an "angry tirade." Botts took what he believed was a less risky approach by not going long-term with Sam coming off his ELC. The risk was obvious to many of us: he performs well on the bridge, the AAV is going up substantially. Botts got greater certainty about Sam as a player, but it'll cost us in terms of cap hit.

 

[BananaSquad]

I personally believe anything over 6.5 a year for Reinhart is getting into overpayment. He's good at a lot of things but excellent in nothing. I feel many of his points have been a product of playing with either Eichel or ROR. If he was in Skinners position he'd be around 15 to maybe 20 points right now. I just feel that if you take him away from Eichel, he'd fall off a cliff. He's a second line winger lucky enough to be playing with a top center and to me, that's not worth 8 million a year.

I’d rather pay Olofsson 8m a year than Reinhart (not paying anyone 8m, just saying)

 

[sabrebuild]

Double post

 

[jc17]

I’d rather pay Olofsson 8m a year than Reinhart (not paying anyone 8m, just saying)

Idk.

Reinhart has had multiple strong years in the NHL, has shown he can play well away from Eichel, and contributes more at even strength than Olofsson. Yes, VO does seem to be improving in the NHL, but he's the same age as reinhart and I dont think he's going to take any more major steps forward.

 

[sabrebuild]

I’d rather pay Olofsson 8m a year than Reinhart (not paying anyone 8m, just saying)

That sounds like Quinn thinking Briere wasn't worth 5 a year back in the day, just not in touch with the market.

 

[Jame]

That sounds like Quinn thinking Briere wasn't worth 5 a year back in the day, just not in touch with the market.

some people think the Sabres sole reason for existence is to have cap space via the most equitable payroll

 

[joshjull]

I’d rather pay Olofsson 8m a year than Reinhart (not paying anyone 8m, just saying)

I wouldn’t.

Sam is by far the more established and reliable commodity. I’d have little concern giving him 8mil a year. I hope Olofsson is what we’ve seen so far. But I wouldn’t be handing him any where near the kind of money I would feel comfortable trusting Sam with this offseason.

 

[BananaSquad]

I wouldn’t.

Sam is by far the more established and reliable commodity. I’d have little concern giving him 8mil a year. I hope Olofsson is what we’ve seen so far. But I wouldn’t be handing him any where near the kind of money I would feel comfortable trusting Sam with this offseason.

I don’t think any of them are 8m dollar players , and I feel that number is a little crazy to see, but i guess we’ll see

 

[BananaSquad]

That sounds like Quinn thinking Briere wasn't worth 5 a year back in the day, just not in touch with the market.

When I see 8m contracts around the league, it’s hard to see Sam Reinhart in that tier honestly, but hey I guess we’ll see

 

[BananaSquad]

some people think the Sabres sole reason for existence is to have cap space via the most equitable payroll

8m for Reinhart seems crazy to me that’s all. I can see why you love it tho, he’s your guy.

 

[BananaSquad]

Idk.

Reinhart has had multiple strong years in the NHL, has shown he can play well away from Eichel, and contributes more at even strength than Olofsson. Yes, VO does seem to be improving in the NHL, but he's the same age as reinhart and I dont think he's going to take any more major steps forward.

It was a bullet to my head scenario, I think the 8m being tossed around for Reinhart seems like a lot , but hey I guess we’ll see

 

[Icicle]

When you put someone on a bridge, they're able to ask for more UFA years at the end of the bridge. That's not an "angry tirade." Botts took what he believed was a less risky approach by not going long-term with Sam coming off his ELC. The risk was obvious to many of us: he performs well on the bridge, the AAV is going up substantially. Botts got greater certainty about Sam as a player, but it'll cost us in terms of cap hit.

The hell are you talking about? Sam hasn’t done anything to prove he’s earned more money on his bridge. He’s wallowed in mediocrity. His only pay raise will because it’s 3 years of UFA instead of 1

 

[Samsonite23]

The hell are you talking about? Sam hasn’t done anything to prove he’s earned more money on his bridge. He’s wallowed in mediocrity. His only pay raise will because it’s 3 years of UFA instead of 1

Do you honestly believe that?

He had 50 points in 2017-18. Then signed the bridge. He then had 65 points in 2018-19 and is on pace for 68 in 2019-20.