Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[Icicle]

Do you honestly believe that?

He had 50 points in 2017-18. Then signed the bridge. He then had 65 points in 2018-19 and is on pace for 68 in 2019-20.

He’s not a PPG player deserving of silly money, corrext

 

[Sabretooth]

Do you honestly believe that?

He had 50 points in 2017-18. Then signed the bridge. He then had 65 points in 2018-19 and is on pace for 68 in 2019-20.

top 30 in ev points in the league this year. totally wallowing in mediocrity

that's a description more fitting a player like sheary

 

[Samsonite23]

He’s not a PPG player deserving of silly money, corrext

OK. That's not really what I asked at all.... I bolded where you said, "Sam hasn’t done anything to prove he’s earned more money on his bridge. He’s wallowed in mediocrity."

And then I showed you how he has scored significantly more points per game after he signed his bridge deal.

 

[Montag DP]

top 30 in ev points in the league this year. totally wallowing in mediocrity

that's a description more fitting a player like sheary

I wouldn't call Sheary mediocre, at least compared to what he is supposed to be (top-9 winger). He would be on the low end IMO.

As for Sam, he is great when he is on. He would be a PPG player or close to it if he played that way all the time. His long stretches of not being "on" will drive down his next contract. That might be good for us, if he signs a long term deal in the range of $7 mil (wishful thinking perhaps, I know) and then finds that consistency.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wouldn't call Sheary mediocre, at least compared to what he is supposed to be (top-9 winger). He would be on the low end IMO.

As for Sam, he is great when he is on. He would be a PPG player or close to it if he played that way all the time. His long stretches of not being "on" will drive down his next contract. That might be good for us, if he signs a long term deal in the range of $7 mil (wishful thinking perhaps, I know) and then finds that consistency.

Reinhart is on pace to have two seasons with more points than Skinner's career best season point-wise.

It won't surprise me if the Sabres want say a 5 year deal that Reinhart's side pushes for something that is like $6.5M yearly for the two remaining RFA years and then $8.5M yearly for the UFA years that the deal will buy.

That would come out to a $7.7M AAV.

 

[Jame]

8m for Reinhart seems crazy to me that’s all. I can see why you love it tho, he’s your guy.

I don’t love it. I would’ve loved signing him for 8x6.25, but Botts chose a bridge, so here we are.

I argued that a bridge would be foolish. I laid out the case (Scheifele). you didn’t like my projection back then... that Reinhart’s development and production trajectory mirrored Schiefele’s to date. I said his next two seasons would be 60+, and then 70+ just like Schiefele’s. Schiefele’s 5th and 6th season he scored a total of 143 points. Reinhart is on pace for 133 points and that’s not accounting for his history as a strong 2nd half producer.

you’ve been consistently wrong about Reinhart

 

[sabrebuild]

When I see 8m contracts around the league, it’s hard to see Sam Reinhart in that tier honestly, but hey I guess we’ll see

I think if you breakdown the players ages, ufa status at time of contract and percentages of cap at time of signing, you would be hard pressed to find a comparison that says Reinhart should get less than 7-8 mil a year on a long term deal.

I get that some people don't like his style, and that mostly people really felt entitled to get the absolute ideal outcome from a high pick. And are mad they got the B+ version of what that pick could have been.

But that doesn't have much to do with contracts. As any of us should be able to see with the Skinner deal.

I bet that Dahlin's contract will not be in line with his effect on winning, because defenders get under paid. It is what it is.

 

[Jame]

Remember... cap genius:

 

[Montag DP]

Reinhart is on pace to have two seasons with more points than Skinner's career best season point-wise.

It won't surprise me if the Sabres want say a 5 year deal that Reinhart's side pushes for something that is like $6.5M yearly for the two remaining RFA years and then $8.5M yearly for the UFA years that the deal will buy.

That would come out to a $7.7M AAV.

I would be okay with that, though I will point out that comparing Reinhart and Skinner on the basis of points seems intentionally misleading to me. No one expects Skinner to put up a lot of assists.

 

[sabrebuild]

The hell are you talking about? Sam hasn’t done anything to prove he’s earned more money on his bridge. He’s wallowed in mediocrity. His only pay raise will because it’s 3 years of UFA instead of 1

Not a real argument.

If being over half point a game on an elc is wallowing in mediocrity, I wish we had a lot more wallowers.

But even accepting your silly framing, the bridge was dumb, just like we said it was. It's okay to be wrong.

 

[Jame]

I would be okay with that, though I will point out that comparing Reinhart and Skinner on the basis of points seems intentionally misleading to me. No one expects Skinner to put up a lot of assists.

true. More is expected of Reinhart

 

[joshjull]

When you put someone on a bridge, they're able to ask for more UFA years at the end of the bridge. That's not an "angry tirade." Botts took what he believed was a less risky approach by not going long-term with Sam coming off his ELC. The risk was obvious to many of us: he performs well on the bridge, the AAV is going up substantially. Botts got greater certainty about Sam as a player, but it'll cost us in terms of cap hit.

I think the “risk” element of this has been overplayed.

Paying your best players market rate isn’t risky. Nor something that generally gets teams/GMs into trouble. Risky is overpaying or gambling on players like GMs do with free agency. Contracts that have historically come back to haunt teams.. Moulson and Okposo are recent Sabres examples with Skinner as the next one with the potential to fall into that category.

Botts missed out on potentially locking Sam in for a below market rate. I wanted to see him extended long term. I was comfortable going up to 8x7. So I’m hardly someone who was an advocating bridging him. But this situation is hardly worth getting all over Botts for or getting that frustrated over.

 

[Icicle]

Not a real argument.

If being over half point a game on an elc is wallowing in mediocrity, I wish we had a lot more wallowers.

But even accepting your silly framing, the bridge was dumb, just like we said it was. It's okay to be wrong.

2OA pick, 0.5PPG despite Eichel gimmes, disappointment.

 

[Montag DP]

true. More is expected of Reinhart

Indeed. Being the driver of his own line would be a good start.

 

[sabrebuild]

I would be okay with that, though I will point out that comparing Reinhart and Skinner on the basis of points seems intentionally misleading to me. No one expects Skinner to put up a lot of assists.

I think that is true, regarding Skinner's play making.

The downside, is that I can't find a single forward who got paid like that for just goalscoring and such unbelievably limited playmaking or point totals.

So for Botts specifically, I think that may have been the logic for his deal, but that seems to be disconnected from the rest of the league.

 

[sabrebuild]

2OA pick, 0.5PPG despite Eichel gimmes, disappointment.

Again, not an argument for what his contract will look like.

You can be as disappointed as you want. Your feels don't equate to contracts.

 

[sabrebuild]

Indeed. Being the driver of his own line would be a good start.

If only they would try it out for more than a game at a time.

 

[Montag DP]

I think that is true, regarding Skinner's play making.

The downside, is that I can't find a single forward who got paid like that for just goalscoring and such unbelievably limited playmaking or point totals.

So for Botts specifically, I think that may have been the logic for his deal, but that seems to be disconnected from the rest of the league.

He would have gotten it on the market, and we desperately need goalscoring outside of Eichel, so I don't have a problem with it. But this is a bit off topic, considering this thread is about Reinhart and not Botterill or Skinner.

 

[Montag DP]

If only they would try it out for more than a game at a time.

I completely agree. I was not blaming Sam for that.

 

[sabrebuild]

He would have gotten it on the market, and we desperately need goalscoring outside of Eichel, so I don't have a problem with it. But this is a bit off topic, considering this thread is about Reinhart and not Botterill or Skinner.

Just following your lead. Tho I do wonder who on the market would have paid him 9 a year. Tho to be fair, on the open market they would have to have been at like 9.25 or so to account for the one year less.

I can't imagine any of the contenders doing it, cap space is too precious to use for them, particularly to move out space for a guy like Skinner.

Poor teams couldn't do it. Arizona ain't paying that.

Maybe the Rags... But after putting that money into Panarin I doubt it.

Oh well

 

[Jame]

Indeed. Being the driver of his own line would be a good start.

Yea, that’s worked well with Skinner...

I always chuckle at this nonsense argument. Reinhart is one of the only top line producers whose production is constantly whitewashed as a product of a linemate.

no one says “hey, David Pasternak go drive your own line”.

 

[Chainshot]

Using some other comps, is the 8.76% of cap for AAV still something people would be okay with?

 

[Montag DP]

Yea, that’s worked well with Skinner...

I always chuckle at this nonsense argument. Reinhart is one of the only top line producers whose production is constantly whitewashed as a product of a linemate.

no one says “hey, David Pasternak go drive your own line”.

Strange how we are allowed to have really high expectations for some players (Eichel), and criticize them harshly when they don't perform to those expectations, but we have to be content with 65 points as a complementary winger out of the other guy we tanked for. He is capable of more, and he was drafted with the expectation to be more, so sorry if it rubs you the wrong way when I say it.

 

[mechaworm]

I think the interesting question is whether Sam has enough reputation around the league to garner that $7-8M offersheet for a 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

Botterill bet he could squeeze Sam last time. He did. He got away with it once. I'd bet he's going to underbid the same player again. In which case the question becomes how does Sam push back.

 

[mechaworm]

Strange how we are allowed to have really high expectations for some players (Eichel), and criticize them harshly when they don't perform to those expectations, but we have to be content with 65 points as a complementary winger out of the other guy we tanked for. He is capable of more, and he was drafted with the expectation to be more, so sorry if it rubs you the wrong way when I say it.

Shoot, Sam should have the same expectations as Eichel? We'd better lock him up for $11M!