Player Discussion Sam Reinhart - Is he the real deal?

[mechaworm]

by going to arbitration and asking for 9 million while pointing out that he’s scored more than Skinner’s career high... twice.

That's a good point. I believe the deadline has been early July in the past -- enough time to get a sense of whether or not the OS was out there.

I wouldn't let my client sign for less than $7M if he had that card in his pocket.

 

[Jame]

This is why it's a waste of time discussing anything with you. You think a trite, meaningless one-liner amounts to a rebuttal.

If lazy arguments is what you’re bringing to the table, then yes... a waste of time your argument will be

 

[Beerz]

I would love to see Sam with Skinner.

But again, I don't think he has been disappointing overall in the slightest. We have seen him drive his line away from Jack in limited time, and the stats back that up.

Over the last two seasons his GF% with and without Jack on the ice is:

52.9% and 51.28%

Why in the world do you think that stat equates to driving his own line?

 

[Jame]

That's a good point. I believe the deadline has been early July in the past -- enough time to get a sense of whether or not the OS was out there.

I wouldn't let my client sign for less than $7M if he had that card in his pocket.

theres zero doubt Reinhart will be filing for arbitration... the only question will be if Botts is willing to pony up before the hearing

 

[Montag DP]

This “drive his own line” argument is just the last vestiges for those who’ve been wrong about Reinhart for years.
I don’t want Reinhart to drive his own line, I want him to make our 1st line elite.... which is what he does, by turning our franchise superstar into a winner at ES:
Last 3 seasons:
View attachment 309247

I don't doubt that Jack is better with Sam, but I want Sam to have the optimal impact on the team, not just on Jack. Jack's game has taken huge leaps in the last two years, both offensively and defensively. Today, he is a hugely positive impact player without Sam on his line, though maybe I should say "would be" since RK hardly plays them apart from each other. 2 or 3 years ago, that was not true, and he needed someone like Sam to cover up his defensive inadequacies.

 

[mechaworm]

theres zero doubt Reinhart will be filing for arbitration... the only question will be if Botts is willing to pony up before the hearing

I tend to think the bridge deal negotiation must've soured the trust there. In 2018, maybe you wait into the summer seeing how negotiations unfold. Now his eyes are open.

 

[Montag DP]

If lazy arguments is what you’re bringing to the table, then yes... a waste of time your argument will be

Not explaining why my argument is "lazy" is itself, lazy. More like post #475, please, and less like #471.

 

[Jame]

Not explaining why my argument is "lazy" is itself, lazy.

it was self explanatory

 

[Jame]

I don't doubt that Jack is better with Sam

And that is how you make optimal impact on the game...

 

[Montag DP]

And that is how you make optimal impact on the game...

Based on what? Hypothetically speaking, if Sam can put up 60-70 points without Jack as some are claiming, we're better off doing that, since that's what he's producing with Jack, and fewer of those points will be associated with the same goal. We owe it to ourselves and him to at least give it an honest shot. Jack can hold his own defensively now, especially if you leave someone like Girgensons on his line.

 

[sabrebuild]

I’m wondering if this deal ends up being 4 or 5 years to keep the cap hit lower.

I think that would be ideal for the team. But I don't know why Sam would that.

He already took a hit for the bridge deal. Why now agree to a 6 a year deal during his prime, when he can likely get more at arbitration and work his way toward ufa or having a blow out season next year.

 

[Jame]

Based on what? Hypothetically speaking, if Sam can put up 60-70 points without Jack as some are claiming, we're better off doing that, since that's what he's producing with Jack, and fewer of those points will be associated with the same goal. We owe it to ourselves and him to at least give it an honest shot. Jack can hold his own defensively now, especially if you leave someone like Girgensons on his line.

Sam makes Jack a better and more productive all around player.

Spinning Sam off, when we already have a 9 million dollar winger, with a history of “driving his own line”.... is just dumb, which is why I don’t worry about Krueger doing it.

 

[sabrebuild]

Based on what? Hypothetically speaking, if Sam can put up 60-70 points without Jack as some are claiming, we're better off doing that, since that's what he's producing with Jack, and fewer of those points will be associated with the same goal. We owe it to ourselves and him to at least give it an honest shot. Jack can hold his own defensively now, especially if you leave someone like Girgensons on his line.

I suspect his argument is that unfortunately at this point, we just don't know if that is true. Jack being fine without Sam.

Which is why it was so frustrating for years that multiple regimes refused to put them in positions to succeed apart from each other.

Personally, I believe that they could be exactly as you say, strong producers vaway from each other and building up multiple line strength.

But we just don't know.

 

[Samsonite23]

Why in the world do you think that stat equates to driving his own line?

I’ve seen Sam play away from Jack with my eyes, and it looked like his line performed well at even strength with players like Sheary, Mitts, Sobotka on it. So I certainly don’t think they’re the players who made the line tick.

So logically, I think about comparing how Sam’s line produces goals for and goals against on the ice with Jack and without Jack. And it’s close.

It’s not some perfect stat. I’m not saying it is. It doesn’t take into account thing like usage, and Sam has spent far more time with Jack on his line than without. But it’s certainly not irrelevant.

 

[Beerz]

I’ve seen Sam plays away from Jack with my eyes, and it looked like his line performed well at even strength with players like Sheary, Mitts, Sobotka on it. So I certainly don’t think they’re the players who made the line tick.

So logically, I think about comparing how Sam’s line produces goals for and goals against on the ice with Jack and without Jack. And it’s close.

It’s not some perfect stat. I’m not saying it is. It doesn’t take into account thing like usage, and Sam has spent far more time with Jack on his line than without. But it’s certainly not irrelevant.

Fair enough. I don't agree..but fair.

 

[Chainshot]

I suspect his argument is that unfortunately at this point, we just don't know if that is true. Jack being fine without Sam.

Which is why it was so frustrating for years that multiple regimes refused to put them in positions to succeed apart from each other.

Personally, I believe that they could be exactly as you say, strong producers vaway from each other and building up multiple line strength.

But we just don't know.

Well, we do have the Byslma and first year Housley times when Reinhart was on the wing with O'Reilly and Jack was with Okposo albeit not under current conditions.

 

[Jame]

Things we should not change because f***ing duh they work...

1. Sam and Jack
2. LOG
3. Pilut-Risto
4. Dahlin-Joki (still early but so obvious)

Fix everything else

 

[Montag DP]

Well, we do have the Byslma and first year Housley times when Reinhart was on the wing with O'Reilly and Jack was with Okposo albeit not under current conditions.

Hardly even the same universe.

 

[Chainshot]

I’ve seen Sam play away from Jack with my eyes, and it looked like his line performed well at even strength with players like Sheary, Mitts, Sobotka on it. So I certainly don’t think they’re the players who made the line tick.

So logically, I think about comparing how Sam’s line produces goals for and goals against on the ice with Jack and without Jack. And it’s close.

It’s not some perfect stat. I’m not saying it is. It doesn’t take into account thing like usage, and Sam has spent far more time with Jack on his line than without. But it’s certainly not irrelevant.

Hell, we saw him creating chances for guys like Jordan Nolan and Seth Griffith. He gets the puck around to his teammates in good places. What we saw is corroborated by the numbers you posted - Sam's numbers aren't contingent on Eichel as a way of getting shots for his team. It's that it works really, really well when they are together for Eichel thus far in his career.

It would be so much more interesting if they would break Sam or Jack onto another line every now and then to make them look for others, to satisfy the desire to not see Sam defer to Jack so often and perhaps make a dangerous second line.

To @Jame 's point regarding Skinner or Eichel, both have positive impacts with Sam right? If they had four or say shockingly five offensively adept forwards where they could try to see what Skinner does with say Larsson as Nash/Ryan and Reinhart as something Skinner has not traditionally had on his opposite side while Jack gets Olofsson and some level of glue guy (Gus, Frolik, Asplund maybe, Kreider - dare to dream) to handle the grunt work that was falling to Sam when Olofsson was on that line. And just see if that works too. It's possible. They just need to sort out if the transition player to get the biscuit up the ice with Skinner is best Johansson or someone else. We know Skinner is able to generate goals (one way or the other) and that to maximize his benefits, having someone cover for him in the d-zone is best. Is that Reinhart? Is that Larsson? Is that Asplund? Heck, they were using Sobotka at that role and as a staff they were happy with it.

 

[joshjull]

I don't doubt that Jack is better with Sam, but I want Sam to have the optimal impact on the team, not just on Jack. Jack's game has taken huge leaps in the last two years, both offensively and defensively. Today, he is a hugely positive impact player without Sam on his line, though maybe I should say "would be" since RK hardly plays them apart from each other. 2 or 3 years ago, that was not true, and he needed someone like Sam to cover up his defensive inadequacies.

Jack this season is on an entirely different level than he ever has been. Its a bit ridiculous at this point for some posters to keep clinging to the idea Jack needs Sam to be this player.

He gave you the last 3 years combined. I’ll give you this season.

Jack with Sam (682mins) —->GF% 53%/ xGF% - 49.43%
Jack without Sam (81mins) -> GF% 90%/ xGF% - 55%

But just to show how misleading GF% can be.

Last year

Skinner/Jack/Sam (541mins) ——> GF% - 58% / xGF% - 55%
Jack/Sam no Skinner (213mins) -> GF% - 41%. / xGF% -> 53%
Skinner/Jack/Pommer (249mins) -> GF% - 59%/ xGF% -58%

But I thought Sam made Jack better? How are Pommer’s numbers with Skinner/Jack better?

Its almost as if using GF% as a binary stat to argue one player makes another better doesn’t make a ton of sense since there are multiple things (usage, teammates, sample size, etc) that can impact that number.

 

[Chainshot]

Things we should not change because ****ing duh they work...

1. Sam and Jack
2. LOG
3. Pilut-Risto
4. Dahlin-Joki (still early but so obvious)

Fix everything else

I'm tentatively interested to see if the "L" in LOG could be Lazar, freeing up Larsson to be the heavy lifter for Skinner-Johansson, with MJ keeping his transition role and being covered for his own higher risk plays.

I'd be open to seeing if Sam and Jack could occasionally get offensive time away from one another, just to see.

 

[mechaworm]

I'm tentatively interested to see if the "L" in LOG could be Lazar, freeing up Larsson to be the heavy lifter for Skinner-Johansson, with MJ keeping his transition role and being covered for his own higher risk plays.

As long as it's an L player, we're cool. I would also accept Pekar.

 

[Buffaloed]

Sam is a blue collar hockey player cut from the same cloth as the thousands of men who worked in the steel mills and car manufacturing plants that made this city great. Sam isn't here to entertain you with fancy moves. He's here to get the job done. Craft beers and outdoor concerts at Canalside wouldn't exist without men like Sam building your roads and bridges. Sam represents the worker bees who weave together the fabric of our society. There's nothing pretentious about Sam. What you see is what you get, and if you don't like what you see get out of town! A big fat contract for Sam is an investment in Buffalo's future!

Sponsored by the Committee to Give Sam Reinhart a Big Fat Contract
I'm Sam Reinhart and I support this message.

 

[joshjull]

Hell, we saw him creating chances for guys like Jordan Nolan and Seth Griffith. He gets the puck around to his teammates in good places. What we saw is corroborated by the numbers you posted - Sam's numbers aren't contingent on Eichel as a way of getting shots for his team. It's that it works really, really well when they are together for Eichel thus far in his career.

It would be so much more interesting if they would break Sam or Jack onto another line every now and then to make them look for others, to satisfy the desire to not see Sam defer to Jack so often and perhaps make a dangerous second line.

To @Jame 's point regarding Skinner or Eichel, both have positive impacts with Sam right? If they had four or say shockingly five offensively adept forwards where they could try to see what Skinner does with say Larsson as Nash/Ryan and Reinhart as something Skinner has not traditionally had on his opposite side while Jack gets Olofsson and some level of glue guy (Gus, Frolik, Asplund maybe, Kreider - dare to dream) to handle the grunt work that was falling to Sam when Olofsson was on that line. And just see if that works too. It's possible. They just need to sort out if the transition player to get the biscuit up the ice with Skinner is best Johansson or someone else. We know Skinner is able to generate goals (one way or the other) and that to maximize his benefits, having someone cover for him in the d-zone is best. Is that Reinhart? Is that Larsson? Is that Asplund? Heck, they were using Sobotka at that role and as a staff they were happy with it.

Hard to say what impact Sam has on Skinner and Jack. Last season Skinner/Jack/Pommer had better numbers in their 249mins together than Skinner/Jack/Sam did in their 541mins together.

Then there is little to work with stats wise last year with Sam and just Skinner together (no jack). But what little there is (114mins) isn’t very impressive; CF% - 50%/SCF%- 38%/HDCF% - 38%/ GF% - 38%/ xGF% 41%. Which surprised me.

 

[joshjull]

@Chainshot

As odd as this may sound, I kinda think Olofsson/Sam together away from Jack would be a more deadly 5v5 combo. Sam would have the puck on his stick way more and Olofsson would be the primary shooter he would be looking to set up.

Skinner with Sam gets back to another player other than Sam with the puck the most. I wonder what a Skinner/Jack combo would look like now with Jack’s current shooters mentality. Would it just be each of them taking turns trying to contort the opposing defense?