Confirmed with Link: Sam Girard signs 7-year deal

[MarkT]

...but it's ok, I'm just being a "hater" again

I don't think you're being as negative as you're being portrayed in this thread, but the list of players was clearly a trap and you fell for it.
He even said it himself: "I bet half of those will be on old/expiring contracts."

So unless you made a list of defensemen who are better than Girard and on recently-signed long-term deals under 5M, you're just proving his point for him.

And honestly, if you want to look at whether he deserves 5M right now, go look at Foppa2118's list of comparables above.

So it's not about whether Morgan Reilly (for example) is better than Sammy, because Reilly signed his contract in 2016.

In any case, we're all looking at this wrong - it should be percentage of cap, not cap hit. So in the case of Reilly, he was 6.9% of the cap back in 2016 (5.58M in 2019 numbers). If Girard signed right now for 5M, it would be 6.1% (4.48M in 2016 numbers).

And given that his contract doesn't kick in till next year, when the cap will likely be even higher, his cap percentage will be even lower than 6.1.

So your new challenge is to find defensemen who were better than Girard at the time they signed, who also signed for 6.1% of the cap or less.

 

[UncleRisto]

% of the cap is what makes salary comparables...

What is this witchcraft?

 

[cgf]

I don't think you're being as negative as you're being portrayed in this thread, but the list of players was clearly a trap and you fell for it.
He even said it himself: "I bet half of those will be on old/expiring contracts."

Which is still an irrelevant point to a discussion about the value of what Girard has given us thus far...unless you're jumping between discussing what level Girard has already hit & what he's worth signing to moving forward, as though those were the same question...

That "trap" is exactly why I called him out; I can "trap" people by moving the goalposts too

 

[flyfysher]

Fast forward a few years and let's say makar is scoring

So let's fast forward a few years when makar is due his first contract. He is at 60 points per season. Very good numbers imo. What will be a fair contract?Will you whine that his demands are too high? I think you'll see just how valuable Barrie was here.
Lot of people in here are banking on makar,byrum and Timmins to be all that. Wish it was so but it isn't gonna happen soon

Right now Barrie fans are already swooning over how many points he will rack up in the TML system. It's just a reflection of our expectations. We'll find out how realistic and unrealistic they are soon enough.

 

[Avsboy]

What is this witchcraft?

That was my reaction at first but it makes sense

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Which is still an irrelevant point to a discussion about the value of what Girard has given us thus far...unless you're jumping between discussing what level Girard has already hit & what he's worth signing to moving forward, as though those were the same question...

That "trap" is exactly why I called him out; I can "trap" people by moving the goalposts too

Holy cow guys, please stop it with this "trap" thing! My question was pretty simple.. find 10 better Dmen signed to lower AAV contracts!!! And I foresaw that a lot of them will have been signed a few years ago because of the rising cap effect. Its a pretty simple, straight forward question about a contract in a cap world... No trap, no moving the goal post, no "Oh my god you're a hater!!"...

I felt this was a very good contract, I felt your post indicated a lukewarm feeling (overpaid now, but if progress, will be good, therefore good move - not a hater's response at all...). So I asked to pull out better contracts are out there to see if, compared to what's out there, it looks like a great or a lukewarm contract...

 

[henchman21]

Not even sure why this is a debate... if you look at cap %, Girard got basically the same contract as Klingberg, Josi, and Ghost. I think it is reasonable to say Girard hasn't had the seasons that Ghost or Klingberg had prior to their contracts, and this is a deal more like Josi's. Where promise has been shown and there is projection involved to get to the cap hit... but there is a reasonable projection that surpasses the cap hit too.

For those that want to deep dive... here's a search for ya.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[CalderKing21]

He's signed, he's improving and he's young. We don't need to make this about more than it is. Let's enjoy having most of the core locked up and the potential our future defensive corp possesses.

 

[Foppa2118]

Not even sure why this is a debate... if you look at cap %, Girard got basically the same contract as Klingberg, Josi, and Ghost. I think it is reasonable to say Girard hasn't had the seasons that Ghost or Klingberg had prior to their contracts, and this is a deal more like Josi's. Where promise has been shown and there is projection involved to get to the cap hit... but there is a reasonable projection that surpasses the cap hit too.

For those that want to deep dive... here's a search for ya.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

It's easy to see the reasons why they signed for what they did, and Girard signed for what he did.

Klingberg had just finished his only season in the NHL less than a week before he signed a 7 year deal. He wasn't getting a big contract with that body of work. Girard has two, and will have a third before his deal kicks in.

Ghost signed two years ago, and before Doughty, who raised the tide for all defenseman signing after. He had hip and abdominal surgery a year prior, and was healthy scratched 5 times during his contract year. He also signed for 6 years not 7 like Girard. The extra year gets you more money.

Josi signed 6 years ago to what everyone agrees was a sweetheart deal. Due in part to his concussion history. He shouldn't be used as a comparable for anybody.

 

[Metallo]

I’m looking forward to next weekend. Going to Quebec City Bootcamp to see Sammy and others play.

 

[Spender]

If the contract kicked in this coming season it would be an over-payment, given Girard's body of work. At the same time, it's not a risky contract; if he stagnates it will be a fair deal in a couple of years, and he can easily be traded if necessary. I think it's reasonable to assume he will continue to develop though, and this contract will end up being very good us. It also shows Girard's commitment to the team, as he's willing to take a guaranteed salary over betting on a big payday in a couple of years. He's in it for the game, not the fame and fortune. Have to love those kind of guys!

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Personally I think the Girard deal lines up a tonne with the Klingerberg deal in terms of risk and reward at the time.


Klingberg was 23 when his big pay day deal was signed essentially(He turned 23 that summer), while Girard is 21 when he signed his and will be 22 when it kicks in so 2 years younger when he signed and 1 year younger when it starts.


Klingberg had a better contract season(Without regarding what Girard does this year anyway as his deal is already signed. He could make it look like a complete laughable steal of a deal before it even kicks in yet) then what Girard just had, but again he was also 2 years older and it was his rookie season so there's a level of risk associated with whether he would keep up those numbers or build on them or not as a rookie. With Girard we've now gotten almost 200 games of NHL experience and a much better picture painted on the Dman that he is. So while the raw numbers aren't what Kilingbergs were, we have a more comfortable idea of projecting the Dman he can become because we dont just have one season to go by but we have 2 seasons now.



I think they both signed with a similar amount of risk attached. Both teams made those contracts feeling quite confident that in a short time frame they would be fantastic deals for the Avs/Stars. Dallas's bet has paid off in spades already. It would not shock me at all if Colorado's be pays off in spades before the deal even starts as well. Sam will be getting a much bigger role this year both defensively and offensively and if he excels the way I think he will(~40 points while showing continued improvement and resiliency defensively), then I think he starts that 7 year deal as a legit Top pairing guy alongside Makar and they'll be playing ~25 minutes a night together right away.

 

[MarkT]

For people who still want to debate whether he's worth 5M right now, here's a list of comparables to use based on percentage of the cap at the time of signing (all signed as RFAs), the length of the contract, and their age when signing it.

NAME	AGE	LENGTH	CAP HIT %
Shea Weber	26	14	13.1%
P.K. Subban	25	8	13.0%
Aaron Ekblad	20	8	10.3%
Alex Pietrangelo	23	7	10.1%
Jacob Trouba	25	7	9.8%
Duncan Keith	26	13	9.8%
Dougie Hamilton	22	6	8.1%
Zach Bogosian	22	7	8.0%
Nick Leddy	23	7	8.0%
Matt Dumba	23	5	7.5%
Tyson Barrie	24	4	7.5%
Justin Faulk	22	6	7.5%
Rasmus Ristolainen	21	6	7.4%
Seth Jones	21	6	7.4%
Justin Schultz	26	3	7.3%
Colton Parayko	24	5	7.3%
Esa Lindell	25	6	7.3%
Jared Spurgeon	26	4	7.3%
Hampus Lindholm	22	6	7.2%
Torey Krug	25	4	7.2%
Jaccob Slavin	24	7	7.1%
Morgan Rielly	22	6	7.0%
Danny DeKeyser	26	6	6.8%
Sami Vatanen	25	4	6.8%
Dmitry Orlov	25	6	6.8%
TJ Brodie	25	5	6.7%
Brady Skjei	24	6	6.6%
Shea Theodore	22	7	6.5%
Michael Matheson	24	8	6.5%
Christopher Tanev	25	5	6.4%
Noah Hanifin	21	6	6.2%
Roman Josi	23	7	6.2%
Shayne Gostisbehere	24	6	6.2%
Nikita Zaitsev	25	7	6.2%
John Klingberg	22	7	6.2%
SAMUEL GIRARD	21	7	6.1%
Jonas Brodin	21	6	6.0%
Travis Hamonic	22	7	6.0%
David Savard	24	5	6.0%
Adam Larsson	22	6	5.8%
Marco Scandella	24	5	5.8%
Jake Muzzin	25	5	5.8%
Jakob Chychrun	21	6	5.8%
Olli Määttä	21	6	5.7%
Oscar Klefbom	22	7	5.7%
Ryan Murray	25	2	5.6%
Damon Severson	22	6	5.6%
Cody Ceci	25	1	5.5%
Brian Dumoulin	25	6	5.5%
Josh Manson	26	4	5.5%
Brett Pesce	22	6	5.4%
Connor Murphy	23	6	5.3%
Mattias Ekholm	25	6	5.3%
Colin Miller	25	4	4.9%
Radko Gudas	26	4	4.6%
Will Butcher	24	3	4.6%
Brenden Dillon	24	5	4.6%
Brandon Montour	24	2	4.3%
Darnell Nurse	23	2	4.0%
Travis Sanheim	23	2	4.0%
Joshua Morrissey	23	2	4.0%
Nikita Zadorov	24	1	3.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Source: CapFriendly

 

[Hasbro]

6.1% of the cap when the cap split 23 ways is 4.37%

 

[Foppa2118]

For people who still want to debate whether he's worth 5M right now, here's a list of comparables to use based on percentage of the cap at the time of signing (all signed as RFAs), the length of the contract, and their age when signing it.

NAME	AGE	LENGTH	CAP HIT %
Shea Weber	26	14	13.1%
P.K. Subban	25	8	13.0%
Aaron Ekblad	20	8	10.3%
Alex Pietrangelo	23	7	10.1%
Jacob Trouba	25	7	9.8%
Duncan Keith	26	13	9.8%
Dougie Hamilton	22	6	8.1%
Zach Bogosian	22	7	8.0%
Nick Leddy	23	7	8.0%
Matt Dumba	23	5	7.5%
Tyson Barrie	24	4	7.5%
Justin Faulk	22	6	7.5%
Rasmus Ristolainen	21	6	7.4%
Seth Jones	21	6	7.4%
Justin Schultz	26	3	7.3%
Colton Parayko	24	5	7.3%
Esa Lindell	25	6	7.3%
Jared Spurgeon	26	4	7.3%
Hampus Lindholm	22	6	7.2%
Torey Krug	25	4	7.2%
Jaccob Slavin	24	7	7.1%
Morgan Rielly	22	6	7.0%
Danny DeKeyser	26	6	6.8%
Sami Vatanen	25	4	6.8%
Dmitry Orlov	25	6	6.8%
TJ Brodie	25	5	6.7%
Brady Skjei	24	6	6.6%
Shea Theodore	22	7	6.5%
Michael Matheson	24	8	6.5%
Christopher Tanev	25	5	6.4%
Noah Hanifin	21	6	6.2%
Roman Josi	23	7	6.2%
Shayne Gostisbehere	24	6	6.2%
Nikita Zaitsev	25	7	6.2%
John Klingberg	22	7	6.2%
SAMUEL GIRARD	21	7	6.1%
Jonas Brodin	21	6	6.0%
Travis Hamonic	22	7	6.0%
David Savard	24	5	6.0%
Adam Larsson	22	6	5.8%
Marco Scandella	24	5	5.8%
Jake Muzzin	25	5	5.8%
Jakob Chychrun	21	6	5.8%
Olli Määttä	21	6	5.7%
Oscar Klefbom	22	7	5.7%
Ryan Murray	25	2	5.6%
Damon Severson	22	6	5.6%
Cody Ceci	25	1	5.5%
Brian Dumoulin	25	6	5.5%
Josh Manson	26	4	5.5%
Brett Pesce	22	6	5.4%
Connor Murphy	23	6	5.3%
Mattias Ekholm	25	6	5.3%
Colin Miller	25	4	4.9%
Radko Gudas	26	4	4.6%
Will Butcher	24	3	4.6%
Brenden Dillon	24	5	4.6%
Brandon Montour	24	2	4.3%
Darnell Nurse	23	2	4.0%
Travis Sanheim	23	2	4.0%
Joshua Morrissey	23	2	4.0%
Nikita Zadorov	24	1	3.9%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Source: CapFriendly

Slots in pretty much exactly where he should on that list.

Not to mention most of the names on that list were older than Girard and got shorter term when they signed. Also, that cap percentage should go down by the time his contract kicks in a year from now. Something else that didn't apply to most of those names.

 

[Tweaky]

Cap goes up just $2M again, Samwise's % drops below 6...5.988%

 

[Avs_19]

The Makar thread gets bumped often so I thought I'd do the same for this one. What an absolute steal of a contract.

His production keeps going up too. He was on pace for 40 points before the shutdown last season, then put up 10 points in 15 playoff games, and now has 9 points in 11 games to start this season.

 

[hockeyfish]

At 1st I thought he had Ellis type upside. But now I think there is considerably more offensive upside. He'll have some top 10 Norris finishes for sure.

 

[Tralfamadore]

I think after an insanely strong start he's come back down a bit. He will still settle into an excellent top pairing defenseman.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

That contract is already a steal. If he can become a consistent 50+ point guy, it’s just going to be absurd value.

 

[Avsavsavsavsavs]

I love Joe.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

At 1st I thought he had Ellis type upside. But now I think there is considerably more offensive upside. He'll have some top 10 Norris finishes for sure.

I dunno about that.

Ellis has only hit 40 points once... But he had 38 in 49 last year. 32 in 44 in 2017/18 and 38 in 71 back in 16/17.


Girard has still yet to hit 40 points and certainly doesn't have any years on pace for 50+ like Ellis had.


Ellis was a damn good Offensive Dman for a few years when Nashville was an elite team. Girard may post some years with similar numbers but especially on a team with Makar, Toews, and Byram already here, he isn't going to be much more than a 40 guy.


And as an add on to that. With Makar here it is going to be incredibly difficult for G to earn Norris votes. Very rarely do you see multiple Dmen from the same team get votes for the Norris.

 

[Pokecheque]

Hmmm, I don't really see the comparables between Ellis and Girard. Girard is a far more deft skater, Ellis can lay down a pretty good physical game and has a really heavy shot, which Sammy doesn't have. Unless I'm thinking of the wrong Ellis (bearded fellow in Nashville right?).

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Joe's most underrated move. What a steal of a contract.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Hmmm, I don't really see the comparables between Ellis and Girard. Girard is a far more deft skater, Ellis can lay down a pretty good physical game and has a really heavy shot, which Sammy doesn't have. Unless I'm thinking of the wrong Ellis (bearded fellow in Nashville right?).

Ellis is also 4 feet taller than G. I honestly dont think there is a dman like Girard style wise. Same goes for Makar. They are very unique.