Salary Cap: Salary Cap Summer | The grind it out phase | Moar 3C Talk!

[SEALBound]

I honestly think we have a great chance in signing Butcher. His agent specifically mentioned that he wants to choose a team that'll develop him properly so he can flourish to play in the NHL rather than be relied on to play regularly from the get-go. If you read Mackey's article, there are lots of quotes from his agent that lead you to believe that the Pens are a serious contender to sign the kid. We have nothing to lose especially given our lackluster prospect depth on the blueline.

The quote from Butcher's agent regarding Pittsburgh is basically the same quote he gave when talking about Vancouver. I wouldn't put any weight on it.

There are teams that can offer him more than we can at this point. Top 4 is set, then you have Cole, Hunwick, Rudewedel, and Pouliot. Unless he's comfortable sitting in WBS and waiting for his time, I doubt he seriously considers us. Would it be nice to get an extra defensive asset, absolutely. I'm just not getting my hopes up with this one.

Before the 2015-16 Season, I didn't predict the ascension of

• Matt Murray to an elite goalie
• Conor Sheary to a scoring forward
• Bryan Rust to a clutch goal scorer
• Tom Kuhnhackl to a solid NHLer

Before the 2016-17 Season, I didn't predict the ascension of

• Jake Guentzel to an elite goal scorer
• Justin Schultz to Letang's playoff replacement
• Scott Wilson to... Well, I actually expected more
• Carter Rowney to be a solid NHLer
• Josh Archibald to look like the 2nd coming of Darren Helm
• Chad Ruhwedel to look like a legit NHL player

Now those realizations come to various degrees but certainly, I'm pretty hopeful about Sprong, Aston-Reese, Johnson, Blueger, Simon, Bengtsson, Prow and Tiffels. But who knows, maybe Jarred Tinordi is our #6 D-Man in April. Maybe Greg McKegg is our #4 Centre.

Must have been all those years of Gibbons, Ebbetts, and Megnas that skewed my perception of what we really had in WBS. At this point, given how awesome of them have done I'm kinda like "Hmmmm...who else do we have down there?". It's fun.

Even if we get Butcher I wouldn't expect much from him. His skating and defense are legitimate concerns in the pro game and it's not like the Hobey Baker winner list is filled with guys with exemplary NHL careers. Regardless of the fact he didn't win it, ZAR is multiple tiers ahead of Butcher as a prospect IMO.

He'd still be a nice free prospect that I wouldn't complain about one bit, mind you.

Agreed 100%. Couple articles I read awhile ago when he got the HB had people saying it could have easily gone to several others before him. It was a performance based award for the year he had not how he rates as a prospect. That was a nice take away from whichever article that was because I started wondering if we had gone after the wrong prospect.

Fact is, that award doesn't predict NHL success. The last three winners are good though: Vesey, Eichel, and Gaudreau. After that...there's a major gap in NHL success until you get to Ryan Miller in 2001. For perspective sake, Kevin Porter won it in 2008.

The HB is sorta like being drafted in the 1st round. It gives you a pedigree whether it reflects your actual abilities or not. Would anyone give Pouliot a second look if he wasn't drafted 8OV? If he was a 4th round pick he'd be in Europe or the AHL permanently by now. But...he's gets the benefit of 8OV. Think about this...the Avs, who are desperate on defense, told him they wouldn't be putting him in their future plans. That's pretty bad. That cancels out the HB hype in my book. Maybe he's more, who knows. If he wants to come here, great, I'll take him and support him. But in who way shape or form do I think he's some top rated prospect. Think Mike Reilly, not Justin Schultz.

Personally I don't want Cullen even playing 82 games. Something around 60 would be better to peak during the playoffs.

He's been a pro hockey player for 20 years. I think he can handle himself just fine. People call for this all the time but forget one thing...it literally never happens.

 

[Penske]

He's been a pro hockey player for 20 years. I think he can handle himself just fine. People call for this all the time but forget one thing...it literally never happens.

I know it doesn't happen in hockey. I've seen it work really well in other sports though.

I noticed he looked more fatigued this season at times compared to the previous year.

If he does return he'll be a 41 year old who has played 203 games of hockey in the previous 2 seasons.

Having said that Sully was great at managing minutes for everyone knowing how much hockey they've played.

 

[Corvidae]

There are teams that can offer him more than we can at this point. Top 4 is set, then you have Cole, Hunwick, Rudewedel, and Pouliot. Unless he's comfortable sitting in WBS and waiting for his time, I doubt he seriously considers us.

Everyone knows the Penguins need at least 12 D every year, and he would easily bump DP down past #8, which is another plus. Anything to accelerate his inevitable departure, arrival and subsequent failure on another team, then ultimate fade into obscurity after bouncing around Europe for a few years is A-OK with me.

 

[Peat]

Wilson had some terrible luck last year, shot 6.3%. Sheary shot 14.9% with a 103.7 PDO. I would expect Sheary to fall back and Wilson to pick it up quite a bit. Which is yet another reason why I'd hate to give Sheary a long-term deal based on one incomplete season. Wilson should be able to get us 15 goals playing as a mid 6 tweener, and Sheary should be around 20, but I wouldn't be surprised if those goal totals were reversed.

As an aside, though Sheary was productive, 16 of his 26 assists (5v5) were of the secondary variety, leading the team. His point totals were clearly inflated playing with Sid, PH and Guentzel. Wilson had more primary assists than Sheary. I'm not saying Sheary isn't a productive player, but he's not as good as all the points/60 fanatics like to make him seem.

I'd add that while better last season, Wilson's shooting percentage still wasn't great, while Sheary's was still pretty high. I think Wilson was a bit unlucky this season, but I think its more he's taking shots that NHL goalies stop and AHL goalies don't. He needs to elevate the puck more. Sheary definitely got a bit lucky, he was able to claim a few absolute garbage goals, but he was a lot better at elevating his shots and finding good angles to work.

Obviously Sheary isn't as good as his p/60 because there's no way he's the best ES player in the NHL. But his shooting's been the one reliably good thing about him since entering the league (until last play-offs). Wilson's been better, but for him to turn out to be a better NHL goal scorer than Sheary now would be quite the turn around.

 

[Shady Machine]

Before the 2015-16 Season, I didn't predict the ascension of

• Matt Murray to an elite goalie
• Conor Sheary to a scoring forward
• Bryan Rust to a clutch goal scorer
• Tom Kuhnhackl to a solid NHLer

Before the 2016-17 Season, I didn't predict the ascension of

• Jake Guentzel to an elite goal scorer
• Justin Schultz to Letang's playoff replacement
• Scott Wilson to... Well, I actually expected more
• Carter Rowney to be a solid NHLer
• Josh Archibald to look like the 2nd coming of Darren Helm
• Chad Ruhwedel to look like a legit NHL player

Now those realizations come to various degrees but certainly, I'm pretty hopeful about Sprong, Aston-Reese, Johnson, Blueger, Simon, Bengtsson, Prow and Tiffels. But who knows, maybe Jarred Tinordi is our #6 D-Man in April. Maybe Greg McKegg is our #4 Centre.

But on the question of a 3C... Bonino had 4 goals (1 EN goal) these playoffs and 4 goals the year before. Now there's more to his game than that, of course, but in both cases he's lining up against 3rd tier competition so I don't think that Bonino's shoes are as big as people seem to make them out to be.

Hyperbole aside on some of those, the Pens also didn't hand those guys NHL spots because they MIGHT become more than we thought at the time. They had the roster filled out and those players got their opportunity when injuries arose and they proved they belonged. We should take a similar approach with the next crop. Also, ZAR is being groomed as a winger and if anyone here knows enough about Johnson to project him as a 3C this season, I'd love to hear the in depth analysis.

Let's just be realistic here. Some of these players MIGHT surprise and earn their spots, but the Pens shouldn't be relying on them to do so.

 

[Pens x]

I'm shocked people would even entertain the idea of Cullen being the third line center. Malkin will undoubtedly miss 20 games; do you want a 41 year old plying second line minutes for a quarter of the season?

Either Cullen is fourth line center or you don't re-sign him. If they feel they have an in-house player to take on that role then move on from MC.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The desperate urgency we appeared to exhibit in adding a fourth line banger mirrored with our interminable patience at the comparatively vastly more important third line center is definitely a little weird.

That the 4th line banger is the best in the league at what he does and available for relatively little plays into that, I'm sure.

Everyone knows the Penguins need at least 12 D every year, and he would easily bump DP down past #8, which is another plus. Anything to accelerate his inevitable departure, arrival and subsequent failure on another team, then ultimate fade into obscurity after bouncing around Europe for a few years is A-OK with me.

Based on what?

 

[SEALBound]

Everyone knows the Penguins need at least 12 D every year, and he would easily bump DP down past #8, which is another plus. Anything to accelerate his inevitable departure, arrival and subsequent failure on another team, then ultimate fade into obscurity after bouncing around Europe for a few years is A-OK with me.

He would not bump DP.

At absolute BEST, he's #9.

Maatta-Letang
Dumo-Schultz
Cole-Hunwick
Rudwedel-Pouliot
Butcher

At best. Then he has to outperform guys like Prow, Corrado, and Tinordi who all have actual NHL experience. Then you have prospects like Jeff Taylor and Bengtsson who are decent prospects but we ultimately have no idea what we have in them. Butcher could surprise all of us, no doubt, but given the fact that Guerin went out of his way to load up on AHL dmen and then drafting several in the draft...I don't see Pittsburgh as an ideal place for him (from his perspective).

I'm shocked people would even entertain the idea of Cullen being the third line center. Malkin will undoubtedly miss 20 games; do you want a 41 year old plying second line minutes for a quarter of the season?

Either Cullen is fourth line center or you don't re-sign him. If they feel they have an in-house player to take on that role then move on from MC.

If you can give him wings like Hagelin and Kessel, I'd be more okay with it. Not ideal but that's the sucky reality of injuries.

 

[TimmyD]

This thread needs moar Duchene

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

Everyone knows the Penguins need at least 12 D every year, and he would easily bump DP down past #8, which is another plus. Anything to accelerate his inevitable departure, arrival and subsequent failure on another team, then ultimate fade into obscurity after bouncing around Europe for a few years is A-OK with me.

You are really hoping for the absolute best 1% likelihood probably to expect Butcher to come in and earn himself a top 8 spot ahead of Pouliot as a rookie. Just because he won the Hobey Baker doesn't make him some blue chip prospect. He's a guy that is far from a sure thing to ever be a NHL regular, and needs time to develop and improve if it's going to happen (ie not this year). As SEAL said, probably at best #9, and I actually think more realistically it's prob at best #10 because I expect Corrado would definitely be ahead of him too.

 

[Corvidae]

Based on what?

Based on how bad Pouliot is.

You are really hoping for the absolute best 1% likelihood probably to expect Butcher to come in and earn himself a top 8 spot ahead of Pouliot as a rookie. Just because he won the Hobey Baker doesn't make him some blue chip prospect. He's a guy that is far from a sure thing to ever be a NHL regular, and needs time to develop and improve if it's going to happen (ie not this year). As SEAL said, probably at best #9, and I actually think more realistically it's prob at best #10 because I expect Corrado would definitely be ahead of him too.

It may not make him a blue chip prospect, but he would far and away be the best one they have on D. You're mistakenly seeing my insult to the Penguin's defensive depth as a complement to Butcher. I'm also going to go ahead and say it wouldn't take much for him to pass Corrado, a guy who was dumped by the Maple Leafs and has shown less signs of being an NHL player than Pouliot. Saying someone can step in and be #8 on the Penguin's depth chart next year isn't much more of a compliment than saying "they might be a serviceable NHL player some day."


Did I mention that Pouliot is bad?

 

[SEALBound]

You are really hoping for the absolute best 1% likelihood probably to expect Butcher to come in and earn himself a top 8 spot ahead of Pouliot as a rookie. Just because he won the Hobey Baker doesn't make him some blue chip prospect. He's a guy that is far from a sure thing to ever be a NHL regular, and needs time to develop and improve if it's going to happen (ie not this year). As SEAL said, probably at best #9, and I actually think more realistically it's prob at best #10 because I expect Corrado would definitely be ahead of him too.

I put Corrado, Tinordi, and even Prow ahead of him to be honest. Defensive issues and skating issues don't translate well to the NHL.

I'd have him in at #12 but that's of course not seeing him in a camp or pre-season. He's from Wisconsin, wonder if the Wild have any interest.

 

[Coastal Kev]

Based on how bad Pouliot is.



It may not make him a blue chip prospect, but he would far and away be the best one they have on D. You're mistakenly seeing my insult to the Penguin's defensive depth as a complement to Butcher. I'm also going to go ahead and say it wouldn't take much for him to pass Corrado, a guy who was dumped by the Maple Leafs and has shown less signs of being an NHL player than Pouliot. Saying someone can step in and be #8 on the Penguin's depth chart next year isn't much more of a compliment than saying "they might be a serviceable NHL player some day."


Did I mention that Pouliot is bad?

This is so dumb. I can find video on every single Defenseman getting burned. I am so sick of people saying "I've watched him play a few games and he is AWFUL".


Pouliot may be a flop and he may be a star. I'm not going to make my judgement until I see him play 60+ games in the NHL.

 

[Corvidae]

I put Corrado, Tinordi, and even Prow ahead of him to be honest. Defensive issues and skating issues don't translate well to the NHL.

I'd have him in at #12 but that's of course not seeing him in a camp or pre-season. He's from Wisconsin, wonder if the Wild have any interest.

Yeah, if he's really below those guys then I'd rather them not sign him unless he wants to go to Wheeling. I certainly don't want Bengtsson or Taylor getting demoted. Prow is AHL meh.

 

[Corvidae]

This is so dumb. I can find video on every single Defenseman getting burned. I am so sick of people saying "I've watched him play a few games and he is AWFUL".


Pouliot may be a flop and he may be a star. I'm not going to make my judgement until I see him play 60+ games in the NHL.

67 NHL games played. And that's not just "getting burned." That's getting burned by Scott Hartnell in 2016. There's no coming back from that. Maybe this year he'll get walked by Umberger.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

I put Corrado, Tinordi, and even Prow ahead of him to be honest. Defensive issues and skating issues don't translate well to the NHL.

I'd have him in at #12 but that's of course not seeing him in a camp or pre-season. He's from Wisconsin, wonder if the Wild have any interest.

I definitely agree. I was trying to say a best realistic case type thing, but even then I don't see him above 10 probably. And most likely scenario, I agree with you he's more like 12 or 13. Doesn't mean he isn't worth bringing in and can't develop higher. We have done well with lower picks/undrafted NCAA players, but as far as this season goes, he has too many holes in critical areas to the NHL game to expect him to slide into any meaningful role without time to develop in the minors.

 

[Coach Travis]

Must have been all those years of Gibbons, Ebbetts, and Megnas that skewed my perception of what we really had in WBS. At this point, given how awesome of them have done I'm kinda like "Hmmmm...who else do we have down there?". It's fun.

Yeah it is fun! Am I totally out to lunch on this, or are the Penguins developing NHLers at a crazy pace? I guess, as someone mentioned on here, maybe we shouldn't depend on guys panning out but it sure seems like something is really working in this organization.

 

[Coastal Kev]

67 NHL games played. And that's not just "getting burned." That's getting burned by Scott Hartnell in 2016. There's no coming back from that. Maybe this year he'll get walked by Umberger.

Yea, no. Ping ponging back and forth to the AHL is not a recipe for success for a defenseman. Let's him for a long stretch and then make a judgement.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

Yeah it is fun! Am I totally out to lunch on this, or are the Penguins developing NHLers at a crazy pace? I guess, as someone mentioned on here, maybe we shouldn't depend on guys panning out but it sure seems like something is really working in this organization.

I think part of it is with the really strong core in place, the recent guys over the last couple years have been able to slide in comfortably in smaller roles with minimal pressure/expectations and develop into whatever role fits well. That definitely doesn't take away from the development because adding this many quality NHL players out of all 3rd rd picks and later in such a short period is impressive no matter what, but being able to come into this situation definitely helps.

Look at what Chicago was forced to do with their young guys this year because of a depleted veteran core up front. They had to plug in a bunch of young guys and immediately put guys in the top 6 with Toews and keep cycling guys up there to make something work. It's a lot of pressure and a tough spot to expect non-blue chip guys to step in seamlessly in the top 6 when they all may have looked a more effective and developed better eased into the bottom 6.

 

[Corvidae]

Yea, no. Ping ponging back and forth to the AHL is not a recipe for success for a defenseman. Let's him for a long stretch and then make a judgement.

I certainly hope so. I insult him a lot (half joke, half serious... or maybe 25/75), but I would love for him to get it together. It's not looking go thus far but there are some tool in the box for sure.

And for reference, my thoughts on a guy like Butcher jumping to #8 would be later in the year after some AHL time and not in September. I thought Bengtsson had a chance for that spot last year after some seasoning but he go Penguin'ed. He's very talented and I count him as a potential wild card this year.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

Yeah the Bengtsson situation is unfortunate (but should have been predictable) but hopefully he can still get healthy and get a shot still. He definitely seemed like an intriguing guy that had the potential to help us in the next couple years so hopefully he can be a guy by the end of the year that could be in the mix at the lower end of the depth chart and replacing a guy like Cole.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Based on how bad Pouliot is.

Pouliot has shown he can hold his own in the AHL and NHL (at least intermittently). Butcher's essentially the same age and wasn't even going to be offered a contract by the Avs last summer.

Butcher would be worth it as a shot in the dark, but there's no basis for having him automatically leapfrogging Pouliot.

 

[Corvidae]

Pouliot has shown he can hold his own in the AHL and NHL (at least intermittently). Butcher's essentially the same age and wasn't even going to be offered a contract by the Avs last summer.

Butcher would be worth it as a shot in the dark, but there's no basis for having him automatically leapfrogging Pouliot.

Yes but the Avs are very bad at putting together a hockey team. We'll have to agree to disagree about Pouliot and that I'm right. I'm sorry, but we'll have to. It's in the phrase.

 

[SEALBound]

67 NHL games played. And that's not just "getting burned." That's getting burned by Scott Hartnell in 2016. There's no coming back from that. Maybe this year he'll get walked by Umberger.

He's had his ups and downs but you can literally find a youtube clip of nearly every NHL player getting torched. When he came in last year and played with Lovejoy, I thought he was fantastic. He became the Pouliot we all thought he could be. Problem was, he was #7/8 come healthy playoff time. What he "needs" is an injury that gets him a good amount of play time.

Pouliot may be a flop and he may be a star. I'm not going to make my judgement until I see him play 60+ games in the NHL.

While that may be true, he needs to earn the spot and keep the spot. There are no guaranteed spots in the NHL. People called for Tangradi to get 40 games glued to Malkin's hip to "see what we have". Doesn't work that way. Never has, never will. Pouliot has no one but himself to blame for being in the position he is in.

Yeah it is fun! Am I totally out to lunch on this, or are the Penguins developing NHLers at a crazy pace? I guess, as someone mentioned on here, maybe we shouldn't depend on guys panning out but it sure seems like something is really working in this organization.

Funny what a good coach who is willing to develop and play the youth can do for an organization!

Yea, no. Ping ponging back and forth to the AHL is not a recipe for success for a defenseman. Let's him for a long stretch and then make a judgement.

But that's what he'll likely get. His hurdle is that he has to make those short stretches count. Last year, he didn't.

Yeah the Bengtsson situation is unfortunate (but should have been predictable) but hopefully he can still get healthy and get a shot still. He definitely seemed like an intriguing guy that had the potential to help us in the next couple years so hopefully he can be a guy by the end of the year that could be in the mix at the lower end of the depth chart and replacing a guy like Cole.

If Bengtsson is still down and out and we signed Butcher to effectively replace him, I would be okay with that.

 

[madinsomniac]

Look the pens:
A. Own their ahl affiliate, so they can dictate who gets what role
B. Play mostly the same system in the minors and NHL, so they don't need players to relearn schemes just nhl playing speed.
C. Actually play kids now instead of burying them behind a vet grunt then if they get a shot, benching them indefinitely for one mistake after sitting on the bench for 20 games...


Its called actually developing guys rather than hoping high end talent just instantly clicks