Confirmed with Link: Sabres re-sign Power 7 years $58.45 million ($8.35 million AAV)

[TehDoak]

Let's play devil's advocate...

Go back to having a penny pinching reputation, not wanting to take care of your guys, nobody wants to stay, nobody wants to come.

There is zero risk in waiting 1 year to do this deal except that maybe it costs you a few more dollars.

What Adams has done with Samuelsson and now Power isn't a normal thing. Teams don't give out 7 year deals off of 1 seasons worth of games. The bridge off of a 10.2c is exactly what Boston did with McAvoy and you don't see people dragging Boston over it.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

There is zero risk in waiting 1 year to do this deal except that maybe it costs you a few more dollars.

What Adams has done with Samuelsson and now Power isn't a normal thing. Teams don't give out 7 year deals off of 1 seasons worth of games. The bridge off of a 10.2c is exactly what Boston did with McAvoy and you don't see people dragging Boston over it.

BS Bucky. You left out the next four years of a 12 mil per cap hit and how that might cramp the cap management, waving it off as just "a few more dollars", when you would be first in line to yell out at the mountaintops how if KA locked him up early there would be more cap space for that TDL add to put the team over the hump for the 2033 playoffs.

Edit - oh...this is of course assuming that Power and his agent even agree on such a bridge to begin with.

 

[Jim Bob]

If Power is an elite d-man, paying him 11M isn't a problem, especially if the cap is 100M by then.

The problem is going to be is, what if he's just a good d-man and you are locked into paying him 8.75M.

Let's play devils advocate a second:

So lets say they go my suggested route:

Let's give him a 7M per bridge deal.

And let's say he aces the next 3 years, and is now a 12M a year d-man.

8x 12

What are you paying him the next 7 years?

21M for the first 3 years
48M for the next 4 years.

69 M.

What are we paying now, regardless of what happens?

58.45M.

The savings, over 7 years, is 1.5M per year, at the absolute worst case scenario.

There isn't a reward here, only risk.

The odds of Power being "just a good d-man" to the point that $8.35M is a vast overpayment are so low that it is laughable to even think about it.

In his D+2 year he played 79 NHL games, was a +10, played over 23 minutes per game, and put up almost 0.5 PPG.

And that was in a season after which people felt that one of the biggest off season priorities was finding him a better D partner.

Power is not going to max out at "just a good d-man".

 

[TehDoak]

The odds of Power being "just a good d-man" to the point that $8.35M is a vast overpayment are so low that it is laughable to even think about it.

In his D+2 year he played 79 NHL games, was a +10, played over 23 minutes per game, and put up almost 0.5 PPG.

And that was in a season after which people felt that one of the biggest off season priorities was finding him a better D partner.

Power is not going to max out at "just a good d-man".

Tyler Myers had a better rookie year than Power and ended up being mediocre and overpaid.

Projecting where a d-man will be 4 years from now based on their rookie year, regardless of draft position, is a fools errand.

 

[Jim Bob]

Tyler Myers had a better rookie year than Power and ended up being mediocre and overpaid.

Projecting where a d-man will be 4 years from now based on their rookie year, regardless of draft position, is a fools errand.

Myers had worse underlying numbers and was propped up in part by the Sabres having Miller in goal versus what the Sabres had last year.

So, you can be pessimistic all you want. But, that is not how this story is going to play out.

 

[Paxon]

Tyler Myers had a better rookie year than Power and ended up being mediocre and overpaid.

Projecting where a d-man will be 4 years from now based on their rookie year, regardless of draft position, is a fools errand.

Tyler Myers was never the prospect Power was. Hockey sense is night and day between the two

 

[debaser66]

He’s the kind who just likes to annoy and upset strangers - he doesn’t actually hold most of these opinions. There’s a name for that type of person…

I am not sure it as simple as you put it

Some takes in here just don't factor in the reality of the ability of player to move on from a team simply. Our negotiating room on Dahlin was almost nil because he was heading into a team-controlled year of RFA.


Power is different. I totally agree with that. But we had four years of team control when his current deal was out (someone correct if wrong). We definitely could play hardball with him (forgetting the consequences of doing that), but we bought three of his UFA years. To me, that's the story. I would want a fourth UFA year at this price. No question. But Power will be 28 when the contract is up and he's getting one more big one.

On these long-term deals, my biggest worry is less overpayment than value going to close to zero which mostly happened with Okposo, Leino and almost Skinner under Krueger. Keeping a guy on roster making 10% of cap who barely belongs in the NHL, that's the worry.

Sure it could happen with Power. But this takes him to 28 and barring major injury, not happening.

I prefer Adams approach instead of the Duck GM playing hardball which is going to cost them down the road

 

[Beerz]

There is zero risk except this risk is an interesting take.

Ha

 

[Aladyyn]

RAPM is obviously imperfect and it is especially imperfect when we're doing actual goals... but there were only 5 defensemen who had a larger impact on goal differential by RAPM last season and 2 of them play for a team that had the best regular season ever.

 

[Dingo44]

Another great thing about this Power 7 year deal is it is a change from before where Reinhart got bridge deals until we had to trade him before he'd walk. He is on record saying he wanted a long-term deal and was never offered one - and he was a second overall draft pick.

 

[The Blunder Years]

Power’s play last year was worth like $5-6 mil alone compared to the dman market. He will absolutely get better every year under this new contract. Nice that he’s locked up we never have to worry about him pricing himself out of here.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Tyler Myers had a better rookie year than Power and ended up being mediocre and overpaid.

Projecting where a d-man will be 4 years from now based on their rookie year, regardless of draft position, is a fools errand.

Except that Sabres seems to continually be right, and you keep being wrong…so maybe not a fool’s errand. There’s a very good chance that they saved 1-2 million dollars a year for each of Thompson, Power, Cozens, and Samuelsson.

I think it’s funny you always leave out Thompson as an example of not doing this…on account you were VERY vocal that was a foolish signing.

 

[brian_griffin]

There were what? four? NHL defensemen who had more ESTOI than Power in the league last year: EK, Doughty, Adam Larsson and Vince Dunn. He did a bunch of that with a AAAA player as his partner in Clague and still managed to push a positive goal differential. Sure, he likely won't eat 90-100 seconds of every powerplay. But the 20-ish minutes a night he's keying the transition and attack at even strength is already very good and he's only played a single season.

There are those damn facts again... running roughshod over opinion.

If Power is an elite d-man, paying him 11M isn't a problem, especially if the cap is 100M by then.

The problem is going to be is, what if he's just a good d-man and you are locked into paying him 8.75M.

Let's play devils advocate a second:

So lets say they go my suggested route:

Let's give him a 7M per bridge deal.

And let's say he aces the next 3 years, and is now a 12M a year d-man.

8x 12

What are you paying him the next 7 years?

21M for the first 3 years
48M for the next 4 years.

69 M.

What are we paying now, regardless of what happens?

58.45M.

The savings, over 7 years, is 1.5M per year, at the absolute worst case scenario.

There isn't a reward here, only risk.

If the doomsday scenario happens, Power is easily traded to another team who will be willing to take him on as a "reclamation project". Small, but non-zero chance that happens, but ZERO worries if it does.

Tyler Myers had a better rookie year than Power and ended up being mediocre and overpaid.

Projecting where a d-man will be 4 years from now based on their rookie year, regardless of draft position, is a fools errand.

(and)

Tyler Myers was never the prospect Power was. Hockey sense is night and day between the two

Tyler Myers' cement-skated hesitation when camped to the goalie's right and the puck / play moving to the goalie's right corner, etc., was maddening. I never played organized ice hockey but I imagine they teach the proper pursuit and positioning in Bantam, if not earlier.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[MarkusKetterer]

If Power is an elite d-man, paying him 11M isn't a problem, especially if the cap is 100M by then.

The problem is going to be is, what if he's just a good d-man and you are locked into paying him 8.75M.

Let's play devils advocate a second:

So lets say they go my suggested route:

Let's give him a 7M per bridge deal.

And let's say he aces the next 3 years, and is now a 12M a year d-man.

8x 12

What are you paying him the next 7 years?

21M for the first 3 years
48M for the next 4 years.

69 M.

What are we paying now, regardless of what happens?

58.45M.

The savings, over 7 years, is 1.5M per year, at the absolute worst case scenario.

There isn't a reward here, only risk.

I bridged him in NHL 23, and it was $7.95M a year. I’d love to start a GM with his contract already settled.

Of course I also have Craig Anderson starting in Rochester because he didn’t retire

 

[TehDoak]

Myers had worse underlying numbers and was propped up in part by the Sabres having Miller in goal versus what the Sabres had last year.

So, you can be pessimistic all you want. But, that is not how this story is going to play out.

I'm not being pessimistic, I'm simply being realistic. Plenty of outstanding 20/21 year old d-men never amounted to much. I get it, he has pedigree and hockey sense. It takes a lot more than that to become an elite NHL d-man.

I'm not betting against him, mind you, but it's far from a guarantee.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not being pessimistic, I'm simply being realistic. Plenty of outstanding 20/21 year old d-men never amounted to much. I get it, he has pedigree and hockey sense. It takes a lot more than that to become an elite NHL d-man.

I'm not betting against him, mind you, but it's far from a guarantee.

You are saying that the Sabres should have bet against him as they bet on him being elite in the future and you are saying they are dumb for making that bet.

I look at Power as being a pair of pocket kings and feel like betting big before the flop is a solid bet.

Either you feel Power is far less than that or you are bad at making bets.

 

[Zach716]

I did a fist pump when I woke up today and saw this news. Some people just want to be angry.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

You are saying that the Sabres should have bet against him as they bet on him being elite in the future and you are saying they are dumb for making that bet.

I look at Power as being a pair of pocket kings and feel like betting big before the flop is a solid bet.

Either you feel Power is far less than that or you are bad at making bets.

Love the poker analogy. I'd go so far as to say you have pocket Ks and the flop already came out 3-7-J rainbow.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

The AAV is the only thing that matters to the cap, saying you have your #1 overall pick for 6M means absolutely nothing to me other than if he's bad, he's tradeable, maybe.

Just because he's getting paid 6M some seasons doesn't make his AAV go down allowing room for more signings.

It's the percentage of the cap....the cap is rising.

8.35M will be like 6M-7M in a few seasons

 

[Zman5778]

Love the poker analogy. I'd go so far as to say you have pocket Ks and the flop already came out 3-7-J rainbow.

And the poster above is very very very worried about your opponent holding 7-3 offsuit.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

The issue with this we simply haven't seen enough of Power to know what he's worth. Usually when you 'pay for future performance' you get some sort of discount by signing before they breakout. Similar to what he did with Thompson, they felt there was upside there, took a bit of a risk by signing him long term early on the back of a strong season.

You don't make them the 15th highest paid defensemen in the league. It's even worse when you consider that he was a 10.2c RFA, meaning he had absolutely zero leverage. This is the Samuelsson deal on steroids where you give out a long term deal with only 1 rookie season on paper.

I'm very curious what could have Power done this year that would have earned him a HIGHER contract next summer. He's not going to get PP1 time, and Dahlin is going to eat most of the choice O-zone starts, so Power isn't going to be an offensive dynamo. The comp here is Ekblad...but that Ekblad contract isn't good. He's had one strong season so far.

The obvious thing to do here would have been to bridge him this summer. a 2-3 year deal, in the 6M or so range, and deal with the the long term contract down the road a bit when you know who he is going to be in the NHL. Is he going to be a have a solid NHL career like Jay Bouwmeester, Erik Johnson, or Ekblad, or is he going to be an absolute Elite d-man. And then figure out his contract. Right now, it can literally go either way. But we're going to be paying him like a top tier one regardless.

Just another dumb decision by Adams.

This is a discount. You'd have a point if this was a one year deal. The cap is rising by a lot. It's like complaining about Stutzle not being a discount last year when they gave him 8M or Hughes at 8M.

Waiting to see his worth is what we did with Dahlin. Could you imagine if we had Dahlin signed long term at 7M right now? Instead he's getting a much bigger deal.

I don't care if he's not on the PP1. He still plays 24 minutes a game.

"The obvious thing to do here would have been to bridge him this summer." That is the absolute worst thing to do. The cap will be near 100M at that point. If Power is getting 50-60 points (very reasonable projection) he could easily push for 11M.

 

[Zman5778]

The cap will be near 100M at that point. If Power is getting 50-60 points (very reasonable projection) he could easily push for 11M.

That's still a fair bit of projection there as far as the cap goes. But IF the cap gets to 100M....AND Power solidifies himself as the 1B to Dahlins 1A.......he'd be pushing for 12/13 per year, not just 11.

 

[Husko]

Cap dollars don't exist in a vacuum. Specifically, fact that you can't move money around like in the NFL means that a dollar saved or overpaid now is not automatically equal to a dollar saved or overpaid in the future.

What do I mean by this. Let's say hypothetically that they did a bridge deal and then had to pay up. Let's say the bridge deal was $4 X 3 and then the pay up deal was $11 X 4. End result is $56 over 7, which is almost identical to the $58 over 7 they agreed to, right?

But they're not the same thing. The valuation is way different. We'd be choosing to save money now, when we have plenty of cap room, as opposed to the future, when hopefully they're spending to the cap as a cup contender. Or maybe there's some reason why one way is better than the other in the different direction. But all that just to say, you can't just look at cap dollars of different amounts over time to decide whether they are generating or losing value with a contract. Just doesn't work that way.

 

[Game suspension]

So you're saying, right here, in this world, Dahlin is unproven?

Yes. Do you think he has proven himself to be tied to be the highest paid Dmen in the NHL ?

- Never been even close to winning the D scoring in the league
- Never won the Norris
- Never been a finalist for the Norris
- Never won a playoff series
- Never even played in a playoff game

KA had to play hardball with him and he caved. Not his money I guess. But the Sabres are going to cap hell without the success it usually takes.

So I guess the question is: Would you bet your right arm that the Sabres make the playoffs in the next two years ? I would not. Too good a division. Besides I like my right arm lol.