Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

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slip

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We are on a good path. Time will tell if it works out.

So if it doesn't work out, doesn't it follow the path sucked? You can't have it both ways.

Our current management team started the process of rebuilding the organization from the bottom up last year with their work in Rochester. It was a good first step and it led to a strong team culture down there. To man the players down there have said this. Many of the AHL vets wanted to come back and did. They built a positive team culture and are now going to be infused with a lot of new young talent to go with some holdovers.

Botts threw a lot of resources at Rochester. Aside from a strong start, they slowly deteriorated as the season went on and were easily swept in the first round. It's as if things fell apart the moment Moses fled back to Europe. Also, the idea you build successful hockey teams from the AHL up is not really a definite thing.

Our current management group was responsible for some of this new talent ( Thompson, Pilut, Hickey, O'Regan, Ogelvie) and some of it was already on the way (Borgen, Asplund, Pu, Olofsson). When combined with whats already here (Guhle, Erod, CJ Smith, Bailey, Baptiste, Nelson, Nylander, Malone) and we have a pretty large group of young talent to work with to develop some more pieces we need going forward.

Again, Pilut, Hickey, O'Regan, and Ogelvie are going to do more to help Rochester than Buffalo. These guys are not the answer to the depth issues that plague us. Thompson was the centerpiece in the ROR trade. I think that's a laughable return for a great player, a point discussed ad nauseam. Every other player you mention was already in the system, and more than half were trying to punch their ticket to Buffalo, most with little to no success. Actually, the dearth of AHL talent to really penetrate the Sabres lineup last season is precisely why I find your optimistic takes on the youthful talent influx to be rather disconnected from the actual ability of Phil Housley to transform minor league players into serviceable NHLers. I've yet to see this play out in reality.

This young talent will create the internal competion for spots, call ups, etc this organization has badly needed. Obviously all of the guys will not work out. But the more in the mix, the more likely we get some pieces developed for the NHL roster. Add in a couple extra 1st rounders and the talent pool should be a good shape for some time.

We had the same expectations last year when guys like Smith, Bailey, Baptiste, Erod, Fasching, and Nylander were expected to fill out the roster. Only ERod stuck, and the rest were pretty useless for most of the season. You're confusing sheer quantity of young talent with quality.

I feel the combination of the locker room issues, the coming large influx of young talent and Mitts progression after getting drafted last year led to our management feeling it might be a good idea to reset with a younger core group and to clean up the room for them. Winning the lottery and getting Dahlin would have sealed it. So they moved on from ROR. You don't have to like that they did. But there is a plan or course of action that can be seen in what they're doing.

The one player who will be hurt the most by ROR's departure is Mitts, who actually could have developed his game as a 3C feasting on weaker matchups. And again, we are not resetting with a younger core. The team just got older and slower than it was last year. Your interpretation does not jive with the actual roster facts.

None of the contracts we added are hurting us long term. Thats why I keep mentioning that we currently only have 6 players under contract when Mitts ELC expires. The roster is pretty much an open canvas going forward because of that.

Your faith in Botts not adding more crappy contracts over the next 12-24 months is pretty strong, but for now I'll let the actual roster moves speak for themselves.

Our current management has also added Scandella, Sheary and Hutton to the mix.

For a couple of offseasons to work with, that list is anything but impressive. Kind of sad, actually.


When our current management team came on board we had a farm team that was a mess, a Rochester pipeline with little in it, a locker room that had issues, not enough depth on the NHL roster, not enough depth in the organization as a whole and some crappy contracts. We also had issues with rules, expectations and accountability from Murray that led to the infamous Sam benching fiasco, among others things.
We also had a team that seemed to be turning the corner and was staying in the playoff picture well into the new year. Last season our high school hockey coach had us out the race by Thanksgiving. To offset things, management felt the need to "disrupt the lockerroom dynamic" and trade its best all around forward for a lumbering winger who may or may not crack the NHL Managment also continues to rely on guys like Bogosian, McCabe, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Pominville -- all of whom should be launched as far away from the team as possible -- to be meaningful contributors. The real work should have consisted of getting rid of the dead weight this offseason, not trading useful players and prime cap space for yet even more dead weight (Hunwick, Sobotka).

Dahlin is the only reason I'm not full blown depressed by the direction of the roster build. Hopefully he learns how to smile after each loss in a way ROR never could.
 

Dreakon13

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Also, the idea you build successful hockey teams from the AHL up is not really a definite thing.
There is no "definite thing" with building a championship team. You kinda need to get past that. Regier's plan of winning trades with no long term vision didn't work. Murray's plan of getting big name talents for lesser pieces with no regard to character, chemistry or Rochester didn't work. Botts plan of letting the shelves restock (organizationally, not necessarily just for Buffalo) and fixing the room using said "big name talents" may not work.

I'm certainly open to it though. We've seen how mortgaging our future for big name talent turns out. Time to go with other way with it.

EDIT: Rochester saw marginal improvements last year outside of making the playoffs. The biggest impact was in the room. Players wanted to go to work every day instead of dreading it, and said as much as the season came to an end. But that's only one season. This year... to build off that, there's also a huge influx of young talent with NHL upside being added (Asplund, Olofsson, Borgen, Pilut, Hickey, Thompson, Ogelvie, possibly others I'm forgetting off-hand)... on top of some of the other young guys due for a good season like Nylander and Guhle, and the better AHL vets we've brought back. I can't understand why some fans choose to try and knock that down instead of being excited about it.
 
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Icicle

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So if it doesn't work out, doesn't it follow the path sucked? You can't have it both ways.



Botts threw a lot of resources at Rochester. Aside from a strong start, they slowly deteriorated as the season went on and were easily swept in the first round. It's as if things fell apart the moment Moses fled back to Europe. Also, the idea you build successful hockey teams from the AHL up is not really a definite thing.



Again, Pilut, Hickey, O'Regan, and Ogelvie are going to do more to help Rochester than Buffalo. These guys are not the answer to the depth issues that plague us. Thompson was the centerpiece in the ROR trade. I think that's a laughable return for a great player, a point discussed ad nauseam. Every other player you mention was already in the system, and more than half were trying to punch their ticket to Buffalo, most with little to no success. Actually, the dearth of AHL talent to really penetrate the Sabres lineup last season is precisely why I find your optimistic takes on the youthful talent influx to be rather disconnected from the actual ability of Phil Housley to transform minor league players into serviceable NHLers. I've yet to see this play out in reality.



We had the same expectations last year when guys like Smith, Bailey, Baptiste, Erod, Fasching, and Nylander were expected to fill out the roster. Only ERod stuck, and the rest were pretty useless for most of the season. You're confusing sheer quantity of young talent with quality.



The one player who will be hurt the most by ROR's departure is Mitts, who actually could have developed his game as a 3C feasting on weaker matchups. And again, we are not resetting with a younger core. The team just got older and slower than it was last year. Your interpretation does not jive with the actual roster facts.



Your faith in Botts not adding more crappy contracts over the next 12-24 months is pretty strong, but for now I'll let the actual roster moves speak for themselves.



For a couple of offseasons to work with, that list is anything but impressive. Kind of sad, actually.



We also had a team that seemed to be turning the corner and was staying in the playoff picture well into the new year. Last season our high school hockey coach had us out the race by Thanksgiving. To offset things, management felt the need to "disrupt the lockerroom dynamic" and trade its best all around forward for a lumbering winger who may or may not crack the NHL Managment also continues to rely on guys like Bogosian, McCabe, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Pominville -- all of whom should be launched as far away from the team as possible -- to be meaningful contributors. The real work should have consisted of getting rid of the dead weight this offseason, not trading useful players and prime cap space for yet even more dead weight (Hunwick, Sobotka).

Dahlin is the only reason I'm not full blown depressed by the direction of the roster build. Hopefully he learns how to smile after each loss in a way ROR never could.

The Rochester team last year had veterans, finally, but had nearly no youth talent. The best thing was Smith-- and he isn't exactly our most touted prospect. Them getting swept in the tournament had a lot to do with there not being to recipe for success on that team: good veteran core plus talented youth. They had Guhle, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Nylander, and some UDFAs. Wooo-- one player!

Next season they actually will have youthful talent.



Mittelstadt will play a sheltered role as a 2C with minimized defensive responsibilities. We brought in two veterans who can play 3C and are known to do well in those situations. Losing ROR just lowers the talent level on our 'match-up' line, but honestly, ROR scored less at ES than Berglund did... is it really that big a loss? Eichel will have to step up against some of those match-ups ROR took- and with better linemates than Kane/Girgensons/Pominville, he may just be able to handle it.

And you're in the ROR thread blaming Housley for the team being out of the race by Thanksgiving-- when ROR barely did anything to prove he was more than a 3rd line tweener up to that point.
 

Crazy Tasty

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There is no "definite thing" with building a championship team. You kinda need to get past that. Regier's plan of winning trades with no long term vision didn't work. Murray's plan of getting big name talents for lesser pieces with no regard to character, chemistry or Rochester didn't work. Botts plan of letting the shelves restock (organizationally, not necessarily just for Buffalo) and fixing the room using said "big name talents" may not work.

I'm certainly open to it though. We've seen how mortgaging our future for big name talent turns out. Time to go with other way with it.

EDIT: Rochester saw marginal improvements last year outside of making the playoffs. The biggest impact was in the room. Players wanted to go to work every day instead of dreading it, and said as much as the season came to an end. But that's only one season. This year... to build off that, there's also a huge influx of young talent with NHL upside being added (Asplund, Olofsson, Borgen, Pilut, Hickey, Thompson, Ogelvie, possibly others I'm forgetting off-hand)... on top of some of the other young guys due for a good season like Nylander and Guhle, and the better AHL vets we've brought back. I can't understand why some fans choose to try and knock that down instead of being excited about it.

All the Americans and Sabres have done is lose. Losing cultures are hard to break. If it has to start in Rochester and then slowly assimilate in Buffalo, so be it. The last time this team was any good is when Rochester had a strong winning core and came up dominated lesser competition. I understand why ROR was moved, I'm not sure I like it or agree with it, but I understand why.
 

Aladyyn

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All the Americans and Sabres have done is lose. Losing cultures are hard to break. If it has to start in Rochester and then slowly assimilate in Buffalo, so be it. The last time this team was any good is when Rochester had a strong winning core and came up dominated lesser competition. I understand why ROR was moved, I'm not sure I like it or agree with it, but I understand why.
You break them by putting talent on the ice, not trading it away for peanuts.
 

BeTheBallDanny

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I thought we were following something closer to the Winnipeg model, the talent and prospects seemed to be there. Learning to win is not easy but once Winnipeg started to win, the culture was suddenly good. Much like Winnipeg, we should have waited to offload ROR for an overpayment. We got a poor return and shouldnt have settled. Should have insulated the kids for one more year before making a drastic change. If we started winning, nobody would have said anything about ROR in the locker room, feels like a total scapegoat.
 
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brian_griffin

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I'd rather have my elite offensive guy score 90 first, and improve his defense second.

But I know how much zealotry surrounds the 'two-way-guy' around here.
jacks been ppg in his career. 90 is within reach more easily than the defensive improvement, IMO.

The Rochester team last year had veterans, finally, but had nearly no youth talent. The best thing was Smith-- and he isn't exactly our most touted prospect. Them getting swept in the tournament had a lot to do with there not being to recipe for success on that team: good veteran core plus talented youth. They had Guhle, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Nylander, and some UDFAs. Wooo-- one player!

Next season they actually will have youthful talent.



Mittelstadt will play a sheltered role as a 2C with minimized defensive responsibilities. We brought in two veterans who can play 3C and are known to do well in those situations. Losing ROR just lowers the talent level on our 'match-up' line, but honestly, ROR scored less at ES than Berglund did... is it really that big a loss? Eichel will have to step up against some of those match-ups ROR took- and with better linemates than Kane/Girgensons/Pominville, he may just be able to handle it.

And you're in the ROR thread blaming Housley for the team being out of the race by Thanksgiving-- when ROR barely did anything to prove he was more than a 3rd line tweener up to that point.
Exactly how will Mittelstadt be sheltered?
 

BuffaloKatanas

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I thought we were following something closer to the Winnipeg model, the talent and prospects seemed to be there. Learning to win is not easy but once Winnipeg started to win, the culture was suddenly good. Much like Winnipeg, we should have waited to offload ROR for an overpayment. We got a poor return and shouldnt have settled. Should have insulated the kids for one more year before making a drastic change. If we started winning, nobody would have said anything about ROR in the locker room, feels like a total scapegoat.

And if we start winning this season, no one will care ROR is gone. The front office felt he needed to be gone, or he would be here.
 

Dreakon13

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You break them by putting talent on the ice, not trading it away for peanuts.
I think we should probably consider taking some younger guys who are on the verge of breaking into the NHL and/or some of our current middling NHL talent and/or picks... for some big name talent to make the team look better on paper.

My name is also Tim Murray, and the things I do work out.
 
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Sabre the Win

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And if we start winning this season, no one will care ROR is gone. The front office felt he needed to be gone, or he would be here.
That's not true. If our weakness is at center even if we are winning we will still notice ROR is gone. For the first time we had a strong center spine and now we are trying to fill that again going into this season with question marks at center and 30 year old players who are half of what ROR is.
 

Icicle

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That's not true. If our weakness is at center even if we are winning we will still notice ROR is gone. For the first time we had a strong center spine and now we are trying to fill that again going into this season with question marks at center and 30 year old players who are half of what ROR is.

We had no good 3C last season and no 4C who was healthy.
 

joshjull

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Certainly, the additions are NHL-level players and will contribute to an extent. The Athletic’s John Vogl addressed Sobotka filling in on the faceoff circle. Kris Baker wrote up a piece on Thompson, who has a lot of expectations placed upon his shoulders in relation to this trade.

But here’s the thing: O’Reilly is a damn good hockey player and his absence will make this season really tough for the Sabres. Botterill should have asked for more in taking on salary for the Blues — at least making that second-round pick another first or asking for a higher-rated prospect like Thomas or Kyrou — but he didn’t get better value and it’s okay to be mad about that.

However, I do wonder if the acquisition of Sheary made it easier for Botterill to deal O’Reilly. He was likely gone anyways, but acquiring Sheary for very little likely played a part in the return Buffalo wanted for O’Reilly. Botterill didn’t have to get a winger to play with Eichel in the deal since he had acquired Sheary earlier.

Conclusion
This move made the Sabres worse from a talent standpoint. They already needed scoring and now find themselves needing more again. Berglund and Sobotka don’t promise to do much of that. Thompson doesn’t have a track record of exceptional scoring in the NCAA, but I’ll get more into him in another piece.

The one positive from this is maybe Botterill makes this move because he sees the value in putting Sam Reinhart in the 2C spot and building his top six around Eichel and Reinhart, possibly three lines deep with Casey Mittelstadt eventually centering another line. That I am fully on board with and think it is the right move. I simply think there isn’t a whole lot Berglund and Sobotka add, and putting the real return value of the trade on Thomspon, a later 1st round pick, and a 2nd round pick is a lot of hoping.

However, even with Reinhart and Eichel taking another step next season, they will combat the cascade effect. Whereas O’Reilly would often take extreme zone starts and difficult quality of competition (while still scoring 60 points), that luxury is gone now. So while Phil Housley can use someone like Girgensons and/or Berglund to fill in that deployment, it won’t be nearly as effective.

I don’t agree with the move or the return and think Botterill might regret it sooner rather than later.

Good article.
 

Sabre the Win

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We had no good 3C last season and no 4C who was healthy.
What?

What kind of argument is that? You can add those kind of players around ROR easily, bottom 6 players are not very hard to find but if next year it feels like we have one good line and struggle down the middle you will notice missing ROR. If Middlestadt and Reinhart works better on the wing and Berglund has to play 2C you can bet your ass our 3C and 4C are gonna be just as bad.

I dont know what you are trying to argue here.

The only way for us not to miss ROR is one of the kids working out at 2C and it has nothing to do with the trade. Like the trade or not losing ROR hurt our center spine unless someone breaks out.
 
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Gabrielor

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Good article.


Great article, but here's my question. Meaning zero disrespect to Stimson, who is quickly becoming my favorite Buffalo sports writer, don't the Sabres allegedly have a very well funded analytics department? Where were those guys telling Botts all of this, before the trade? Or did he just ignore them in favor of his gut?
 

joshjull

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So if it doesn't work out, doesn't it follow the path sucked? You can't have it both ways.

Botts threw a lot of resources at Rochester. Aside from a strong start, they slowly deteriorated as the season went on and were easily swept in the first round. It's as if things fell apart the moment Moses fled back to Europe. Also, the idea you build successful hockey teams from the AHL up is not really a definite thing.

Again, Pilut, Hickey, O'Regan, and Ogelvie are going to do more to help Rochester than Buffalo. These guys are not the answer to the depth issues that plague us. Thompson was the centerpiece in the ROR trade. I think that's a laughable return for a great player, a point discussed ad nauseam. Every other player you mention was already in the system, and more than half were trying to punch their ticket to Buffalo, most with little to no success. Actually, the dearth of AHL talent to really penetrate the Sabres lineup last season is precisely why I find your optimistic takes on the youthful talent influx to be rather disconnected from the actual ability of Phil Housley to transform minor league players into serviceable NHLers. I've yet to see this play out in reality.

The one player who will be hurt the most by ROR's departure is Mitts, who actually could have developed his game as a 3C feasting on weaker matchups. And again, we are not resetting with a younger core. The team just got older and slower than it was last year. Your interpretation does not jive with the actual roster facts.

Your faith in Botts not adding more crappy contracts over the next 12-24 months is pretty strong, but for now I'll let the actual roster moves speak for themselves.

For a couple of offseasons to work with, that list is anything but impressive. Kind of sad, actually.

We also had a team that seemed to be turning the corner and was staying in the playoff picture well into the new year. Last season our high school hockey coach had us out the race by Thanksgiving. To offset things, management felt the need to "disrupt the lockerroom dynamic" and trade its best all around forward for a lumbering winger who may or may not crack the NHL Managment also continues to rely on guys like Bogosian, McCabe, Girgensons, Beaulieu, and Pominville -- all of whom should be launched as far away from the team as possible -- to be meaningful contributors. The real work should have consisted of getting rid of the dead weight this offseason, not trading useful players and prime cap space for yet even more dead weight (Hunwick, Sobotka).

Dahlin is the only reason I'm not full blown depressed by the direction of the roster build. Hopefully he learns how to smile after each loss in a way ROR never could.

Wow thats a lot of anger and ignorance crammed into one post.

1) My idea of it not working out is not becoming a Cup contender. I wasn't aware the only other option to that is we suck. There are many variants with how things can play out that fall between those two extremes. Your anger is truly something if it can get you that bent out of shape over such an innocuous phrase.

2) The Amerks were a mess prior to this regime. Last year was a step forward. Or are you so full of hate you're actually going to argue making the playoffs after being no where near it is not a step forward? They had their issues without question. But they built a better culture that every single player that was there talked about it. They have a vet leadership that wanted to be there and came back. Thats a good first step. As Sexton has said a few times building sustainable success at the AHL level requires a strong vet leadership group and having strong group of young talent. The next step, as Sexton has said, is to add the young talent that there wasn't enough of last year. Thats what will help them ride out or maybe even avoid prolonged drop offs. How anyone could possibly argue our farm team isn't improved and moving in the right direction is beyond me. Add in the influx of young talent who will be fighting for playing time in Rochester and things should be even better next season.

3) Building organizational depth and developing key pieces by having a good farm team has always been a thing in the NHL. That you seem to be oblivious to that fact is amazing. Where do you think the depth comes from when teams got 10+ deep on defense or 14+ at forward? Does is it fall from the sky? How do you think good teams ride out losing players in season to injury or over the years to the cap? They have them developing on the farm. How do you not know these things?

4) No kidding most of the young guys will be helping the Amerks more than us this year. Thats the entire point. They will be developing their games down there and will provide better depth when needed. Over time (month, half a season, a full season, etc) the size of the group ready for a call up should grow thus increasing the quality of our depth. We get that from growing our in house talent and depth options.

Based on your comment, among others, that none of these young players will help the depth problems that plague us. Its fairly obvious you have no clue how organizational depth works or the role the farm team plays in supporting the NHL roster or developing players. That, among others things, is why I said there is a lot of ignorance in your post. You don't seem to know.

5) No rational thinking person looks at the influx of Thompson, Pilut, Hickey, O'Regan, Ogelvie, Borgen, Asplund, Pu and Olofsson to the organization for their first camp to go along with Guhle, Erod, CJ Smith, Bailey, Baptiste, Nelson, Nylander and Malone as anything but a good thing. Its absurd you think the expectations for this group with that influx talent should be the same as last year. Thats just your anger talking or you really are out to lunch on this.

6) Two people directly involved with completely redesigning how the Pens identified talent for the draft and college/European free agency and then developed it were Botts and Sexton. A process they said took a bit of time to see the results but helped lead to the improved depth that helped the Pens win 2 Cups. But now they are morons for trying to build that up here.

7) Mitts can still be sheltered in a secondary scoring line role. ROR does not have to be here for that to happen. This shouldn't be news to you.

8) We switched to a younger core. I'm amazed you think there is a counter argument to be made to that.

9) Your complaining about the "bad" contracts is so pointless. We have 13 forwards, 7 dmen and 2 goalies under contract with 12mil in cap space and just Sam to sign to a big deal. The contracts don't matter at all because our cap situation is fine. After this year Moulson, Pommer and Hunwick come off the books. The year after that our roster is pretty wide open with only 6 guys under contract. None of the contracts we took on in any deals by Botts will hamstring us going forward. Thats all that matters.

We used our extra cap space as an asset to get Scandella (Pommer) and Sheary (Hunwick). Something most understand is a good use of the cap space asset. If you want to complain about a "bad" contract , complain about Moulson's. We took on that contract on and only got Moulson.
 
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darcyRegier

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Or did he just ignore them in favor of his gut

ChEK6h4UoAAaS1r.jpg
 

sandybridge

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it's a good question. i guess we'll never know, but my instincts say that paryako just wasn't going to get moved. their d instantly gets worse by trading him. nothing would have gotten him here short of offering up ror + risto

maybe it could have been ror + risto = parayko + berglund + sobotka + 2nd + maybe a b-list prospect?

but that even sounds insane to me on our end, we don't get the futures and all we really get long-term is parayko

I think in that scenario, Thompson or a 1st would still be coming back in the package.

I would have preferred something like:

Parayko + Schwartz <=> ROR + Risto + good prospect (Nylander ?).

That would have been a pretty fair deal, and really give us a very nice core that should get back into the playoff hunt in the near future.
 

hizzoner

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Absolutely how many amazing GMs there are working for peanuts as sports reporters. What great FAs they would find and sign. What heists they would pull in their deals with other humdrum managers. What steals they would regularly find in the 6th round. And to do all that without any personal scouting? And without knowledge of what goes on in each dressing room. Golly gee....
 

joshjull

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What?

What kind of argument is that? You can add those kind of players around ROR easily, bottom 6 players are not very hard to find but if next year it feels like we have one good line and struggle down the middle you will notice missing ROR. If Middlestadt and Reinhart works better on the wing and Berglund has to play 2C you can bet your ass our 3C and 4C are gonna be just as bad.

I dont know what you are trying to argue here.

The only way for us not to miss ROR is one of the kids working out at 2C and it has nothing to do with the trade. Like the trade or not losing ROR hurt our center spine unless someone breaks out.

He's probably pointing out its fallacy to say we had a strong center spine. We had a great 1 -2 punch but no one was very effective after that.
 
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sabrebuild

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I might have missed someone already mentioning this, but Stimson from The Athletic posted an article on the O’Reilly trade. Good read.
 

WeDislikeEich

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Not sure if this has been posted already. It’s just a small blurb in a long article, but I found it interesting none the less - (it’d right toward the end of the article, subscription required). Here -

Pat Maroon's signing caps GM Doug Armstrong's big summer —...

“The Blues could have made the trade for O’Reilly earlier, but it would have cost a premier prospect and they likely wouldn’t have been able to move Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Sobotka. They could have signed Maroon sooner, but then might not have had enough to pay Perron and Bozak. Everything went hand to hand, and without one the others may not have materialized.”



That sure makes it sound like Botterill blinked first.

Makes me think the $7.5M deadline was a major, major factor. Otherwise there’d have been no reason to blink 3 hours before the bonus was due.
 
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