Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins '17-18 Season

[Asher]

Eberle isn't here because of last years playoffs. You can't play like that and expect to stay. If he were paid 1M/year he would not be here today.

He's also good at least 20G, 50PTS a year. Numbers that will be sorrily missed on this team if Strome doesn't turn his career around and/or Nuge doesn't contribute more offense.

I know Asher. I just don't see the point in bashing him because he happened to sign a contract that was glad handed to him and the other 2 6 million dollar men. I said it before and I'll repeat it here. If they can move him for a player that will contribute to the same or better level at less $$$$$$.....great. I don't see the point in making it seem like he's useless on the team because he's making what he is. I happen to like his contributions and what he brings. I'm also all in for him either getting it all together this year if possible. That has yet to be seen though.

It's the heat that comes with the big bucks. Players will always say there isn't extra pressure after signing a big contract, but there is. Maybe not from the players or the coaches, but definitely from the media and the fans. And as countless examples prove, if a player can't live up to his contract, the chances of him not being with that team much longer go up dramatically.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Nuge gets 60 this season.

 

[CupofOil]

Ok, so you ignored most of what I said, that's cool.

Still waiting for the replacement you would suggest.

I'll say it again, most of the league wishes they had our problems.

He's not wrong. RNH is the definition of a tweener, not good enough to be the offensive driver of a line and not good enough defensively to be a shutdown center.
He's merely adequate in a lot of areas but doesn't excel at anything, I'd argue that he's not appreciably above average in any aspect of his game. For $6M, that's a tough pill to swallow.
Not exactly the same type of player but I felt the same exact way about Gagner. Tweener, doesn't excel at anything, stagnant development, overpaid and put into a role that they are ill equipped to handle.

He plays like a player deathly afraid to make a mistake likely poisoned by all the poor coaching that he has received throughout his career. There's still a good player in there somewhere but he's not trending in the right direction the last couple of years. Perhaps he will excel in a soft minutes 3rd line role.
I'd rather see him in a support role on one of the top 2 lines and have a more conventional shutdown 3rd line center but this is the hand that Mclellan was dealt with no other viable 3rd line center options so here we are.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Maybe you're right McCupOfOil.

But IMHO the biggest flaw in RNH's game is simply a lack of maturity.

He's only 24, and unlike Hall or Eberle, his style of game is the type that would maybe grow or adapt into something more useful. He doesn't have blistering speed, or an accurate shot.

He was billed as a cerebral player. I think he could still become a David Krejci type Centre when he gets there.

I just don't see a 24 year old who was 164lbs when he was drafted as a fully finished product. Especilly one with wasted seasons under Eakins, and obviously should have been sent back to Jr and the A as he physically matured.

For the first time in his career he has some semblance of stability, and isn't asked go carry the bulk of the load on what is a pretty good team. (He is however asked to carry his own line for the first time in his career).

I think we'll see the evolution of the maturity in his game. He's going to be better going forward. Better at corners, better at reading plays, generating offense.

I also think Eberle really dragged him down last year. We'll see how he does with linemates who actually try.

Nuge still has a ways to go, but he's still young enough to get there.

 

[CupofOil]

Maybe you're right McCupOfOil.

But IMHO the biggest flaw in RNH's game is simply a lack of maturity.

He's only 24, and unlike Hall or Eberle, his style of game is the type that would maybe grow or adapt into something more useful. He doesn't have blistering speed, or an accurate shot.

He was billed as a cerebral player. I think he could still become a David Krejci type Centre when he gets there.

I just don't see a 24 year old who was 164lbs when he was drafted as a fully finished product. Especilly one with wasted seasons under Eakins, and obviously should have been sent back to Jr and the A as he physically matured.

For the first time in his career he has some semblance of stability, and isn't asked go carry the bulk of the load on what is a pretty good team. (He is however asked to carry his own line for the first time in his career).

I think we'll see the evolution of the maturity in his game. He's going to be better going forward. Better at corners, better at reading plays, generating offense.

I also think Eberle really dragged him down last year. We'll see how he does with linemates who actually try.

Nuge still has a ways to go, but he's still young enough to get there.

I don't think it's a maturity thing, he doesn't play an immature game despite his flaws. I also don't think it's physical. I think it's almost entirely a mental thing with him where his confidence has been shattered due to the revolving door of coaches, wrong coaches putting him in a position to fail and the failure of the organization to properly support him and thus, thrusting him into a #1 center role way too soon. Just look at how much Eakins ran him into the ground, Nuge was amongst the league leaders in minutes played for those 2 seasons which is absurd and partially explains his spike in offense those 2 years even though most of his game wasn't progressing.
He's not the only one. Hall and Eberle started stagnating here as well due to the years of poisonous culture seeping into their psyche. Once a young player loses that confidence, it's very difficult to get it back.

I just think it's a player who is struggling to find his niche in this league. He's afraid to cheat for any offense worrying that he might abandon his defensive position. That's fine if your billed as a shutdown center but that's not what he is. He's a talented offensive player who has been constantly put in a defensive role lined up against the toughs and asked to be responsible first and creative second. Didn't like way Mclellan used him last year asking him to carry a line in a shutdown type of role and am glad to see him being put in a softer minute role this season although I still don't know if it's the best idea to have him on a line where he's supposed to be the driver.

He's young enough to improve but after 6 years in the league, it's getting to the point of "he is what he is". Mclellan promised that he will be put in a more offensive role so we'll see how that progresses throughout the season.

 

[Asiaoil]

Ok, so you ignored most of what I said, that's cool.

Still waiting for the replacement you would suggest.

I'll say it again, most of the league wishes they had our problems.

McCupofOil said most of what I need to. I don't hate RNH nor do I think he's a bad player. He is just simply over-paid and I'll suited to what we really need. Kind of like taking a Toyota Avalon to a off-road 4x4 competition. The Avalon is a perfectly nice car (if a bit bland) but not at all suited to the need. RNH as an overpaid 3rd line center is a luxury we can afford since we have the cap space this year - but let's not pretend the player isn't basically a younger, smaller, softer Brandon Dubinsky who can't win faceoffs. That's an OK player and happy to have him - but next year he's a luxury we can't afford without giving up a player who contributes way more.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Been over this hundred times but the RNH fans just ignore the evidence. Woodguy posted RNH's numbers against tough competition this summer. They are simply not that good. He got punched around pretty badly by tough comp and he's nothing special at all in this area. Like all the rest of the Austin's he loves to create offense off the rush, isn't big enough or tough enough to do much on the cycle, and gets manhandled in his own zone by bigger, tougher players. It's a recipe for mediocre playoff numbers which he had: 0-4-4 -3

He's a finesse center with decent defensive skills but he's nothing terribly special which is why he's our 3rd line center. Probably his best asset is his PP skills (he should kill it on the 2nd unit PP) and overall he's a decent 2C a good team. RNH is only a top line C on a poor squad like the old Oilers. Decent value as a $4 million 2C behind a bigger 1C but poor value @ $6 million as a 3C behind Drai/McDavid. For the 50th time: RNH has some offensive skills - but Drai and McDavid are way better - and he's weak in areas where Drai and McDavid are less dominant (defense, physicality, faceoff). Simply over-paid and a poor fit for our needs at 3C going forward.

I say this as a fan of RNH, so I'm acknowledging that I probably have some bias in my opinions.

IMO he thinks the game well enough offensively and would thrive with a couple of players that can grind it out and cycle. That player was never and will never be Eberle. Defensively I thought that he was decent against Thornton (albeit a badly injured Thornton) and Getzlaf for at least some of the Anaheim series. Where he fell flat was not converting on his chances especially in the SJ series as he had a lot of them. In the 2nd round the whole line simply couldn't do a damn thing offensively but to be fair neither did McDavid for much of it albeit he had Kesler on him like a combination of a backpack and a baby carrier. Eberle IMO weighed that whole line down and was by far the most useless player in that series.

Nuge starts this season with no familiar faces for "business as usual". He will now have new faces around him to learn to play with, that maybe the best thing for him to break out of some of his bad habits as a player. Ultimately it's up to him to start to turn his way around, if he can regain his '14-15 form as our 3C we could be going places this season.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

McCupofOil said most of what I need to. I don't hate RNH nor do I think he's a bad player. He is just simply over-paid and I'll suited to what we really need. Kind of like taking a Toyota Avalon to a off-road 4x4 competition. The Avalon is a perfectly nice car (if a bit bland) but not at all suited to the need. RNH as an overpaid 3rd line center is a luxury we can afford since we have the cap space this year - but let's not pretend the player isn't basically a younger, smaller, softer Brandon Dubinsky who can't win faceoffs. That's an OK player and happy to have him - but next year he's a luxury we can't afford without giving up a player who contributes way more.

So let's say that Drai ends up as Connor's permanent RW, do you keep Nuge to be your 2C?

 

[shoop]

So let's say that Drai ends up as Connor's permanent RW, do you keep Nuge to be your 2C?

That's horrible, horrible management. Centre is a much more valuable position for a reason.

McDavid as your 1C and Nuge as your 2C are anchors for two very solid lines.

1-Maroon/McDavid/Drai with 2-Lucic/Nuge/Strome is vastly inferior to
1-Maroon/McDavid/Strome with 2-Lucic/Drai/Caggs or Slepy.

 

[Mr Positive]

That's horrible, horrible management. Centre is a much more valuable position for a reason.

McDavid as your 1C and Nuge as your 2C are anchors for two very solid lines.

1-Maroon/McDavid/Drai with 2-Lucic/Nuge/Strome is vastly inferior to
1-Maroon/McDavid/Strome with 2-Lucic/Drai/Caggs or Slepy.

it's not horrible management if that's the arrangement that wins the most games. Just because it looks bad on paper doesn't mean that's how the chips fall in the end. Lucic-Nuge-Strome could be an amazing line.

It's not a bad arrangement imo. Although, I'd say that long term, it would be Lucic-Nuge-Puljujarvi, with Strome as 3C. But we can't know for sure.

We'll see how it shakes out. Btw, the numbers can work if want them to. It's just that it would take a great season from RNH where he shows how much he's needed. If he has a season like last year, he's gone

 

[belair]

That's horrible, horrible management. Centre is a much more valuable position for a reason.

McDavid as your 1C and Nuge as your 2C are anchors for two very solid lines.

If Draisaitl struggles offensively while anchoring that second line, how is that horrible management? He's an $8.5m player now, remember? If Draisaitl requires McDavid to maintain that kind of offensive production--or maybe McDavid benefits from Draisaitl's company, RNH is no longer your overpaid #3C. If we don't have the available depth to allow Draisaitl the ability to produce to that expected level, well, it was nice knowing him.

1-Maroon/McDavid/Drai with 2-Lucic/Nuge/Strome is vastly inferior to
1-Maroon/McDavid/Strome with 2-Lucic/Drai/Caggs or Slepy.

No....no, it isn't. Caggs and Slepy aren't top six players and there's no guarantee Strome clicks with McDavid immediately. On the other hand, the Maroon-McDavid-Draisaitl was the most dominant line in the league for much of last season. Option 1 has proven results.

There's no guarantee either/or in regards to keeping or trading RNH at this point but I think people should get used to seeing C/RW or C/LW next to quite a few of our forwards over the next few seasons--Draisaitl especially.

 

[Asiaoil]

So let's say that Drai ends up as Connor's permanent RW, do you keep Nuge to be your 2C?

Can't pay a RW that kind of cash and Drai earned a healthy premium to do it as a center. I like having RNH this season as a 3C as it gives us the best chance to win short of having a bigger, better defensive C like Jordan Stall. We can afford the luxury of RNH this season, we won't get anyone better, and we need to make a serious run. But next year he's gonzo no matter what he does. Perfect scenario is RNH having a career year, we win the cup, then trade him for a very nice ELC player(s) next summer. Would be good for the guy to win after enduring the disaster of the Lowe/Tambo/Eakins/MacT years.

 

[Mr Positive]

Can't pay a RW that kind of cash and Drai earned a healthy premium to do it as a center. I like having RNH this season as a 3C as it gives us the best chance to win short of having a bigger, better defensive C like Jordan Stall. We can afford the luxury of RNH this season, we won't get anyone better, and we need to make a serious run. But next year he's gonzo no matter what he does. Perfect scenario is RNH having a career year, we win the cup, then trade him for a very nice ELC player(s) next summer. Would be good for the guy to win after enduring the disaster of the Lowe/Tambo/Eakins/MacT years.

the cap of the whole team is what matters. If you can make it work with Drai on RW, then it's not bad. I don't see why it would matter about what the principle for paying a winger is. Besides, as wingers go, there are higher paid players than Drai and it's not viewed as a travesty

I believe Chia when he says that RNH can stay here long term, because it is absolutely true. It depends on a few things going our way besides just RNH doing well, but it can happen.

 

[belair]

the cap of the whole team is what matters. If you can make it work with Drai on RW, then it's not bad. I don't see why it would matter about what the principle for paying a winger is. Besides, as wingers go, there are higher paid players than Drai and it's not viewed as a travesty

I believe Chia when he says that RNH can stay here long term, because it is absolutely true. It depends on a few things going our way besides just RNH doing well, but it can happen.

Yep. There's a hell of a lot more value in a RW who can play center than just a plain old RW--Ryan Strome hopefully being a recent example. Center is an extremely important position and quality ones are nearly impossible to acquire when you don't have them.

 

[Fourier]

Been over this hundred times but the RNH fans just ignore the evidence. Woodguy posted RNH's numbers against tough competition this summer. They are simply not that good. He got punched around pretty badly by tough comp and he's nothing special at all in this area. Like all the rest of the Austin's he loves to create offense off the rush, isn't big enough or tough enough to do much on the cycle, and gets manhandled in his own zone by bigger, tougher players. It's a recipe for mediocre playoff numbers which he had: 0-4-4 -3

He's a finesse center with decent defensive skills but he's nothing terribly special which is why he's our 3rd line center. Probably his best asset is his PP skills (he should kill it on the 2nd unit PP) and overall he's a decent 2C a good team. RNH is only a top line C on a poor squad like the old Oilers. Decent value as a $4 million 2C behind a bigger 1C but poor value @ $6 million as a 3C behind Drai/McDavid. For the 50th time: RNH has some offensive skills - but Drai and McDavid are way better - and he's weak in areas where Drai and McDavid are less dominant (defense, physicality, faceoff). Simply over-paid and a poor fit for our needs at 3C going forward.

I addressed this before but you did not respond.

I looked at the link you posted to Woodguy's comments and if it is the one I checked out I did not see much of a detailed analysis to be honest. It was more of a summary of the content of PuckIq's data. On the surface it looks compelling as you stated but a more detailed look at these numbers was done by the guy who runs PuckIq here: (Thanks to tempesti2i for pointing this out).



https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2017/08/19/comparing-nuges-oranges-and-draisaitls-oranges/

He points out a significant quirk in these numbers which I had also noted before and that is the impact of the combination of Nuge and Russell on the numbers that Woodguy quotes. It's actually somewhat freaky and quite remarkable how much the pair seemed to be oil and water. I have pointed out that with Larsson statistically Nuge looks like a completely different player. In fact with anyone other than Russell and things do look very different.

Beyond that Nuge's numbers vs the elite in the west are also very different. I know you like the using GF/60 and GA/60 which I have issues with when comparing players in different roles. But what is striking is that vs the West Nuge's GF/60 is 2.2 and his GA/60 is an extremely low 1.3. Yet vs the east they are respectively an anemic 0.70 and 2.70. The respective TOI are West 269 minutes and East 175 minutes so there is no doubt some small sample size issues here. But on the surface this suggests that the overall the numbers are skewed by some truly bad games vs a few eastern teams. And if I recall Nuge played some of the worst hockey of his career during an Eastern swing early in the year. The team was also terrible during that stretch, really the only extended period of poor defensive play the whole year.

You have also recently acknowledged that the stats that are often used don't isolate the player in suggesting that Nuge's successful results in the playoffs had him "helping" his unit. So is this terrible stretch indicative of the player or is it a statistical quirk due to a match-up that was for a brief time a disaster. Is there a case to be made that his much better performance over a larger sample size against the type of teams he is suppose to struggle against more representative of the player that his coach seems to speak of frequently. Hopefully this year makes this more clear.

http://puckiq.com/players/8476454

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

there's zero chance Nuge gets 60 points this year unless he's playing 2nd line center and top PP minutes

20G and 50 pts. while playing the tough minutes is enough for me

 

[Dorian2]

Has Nuge played on the RW before? To any great length? Just wondering.

 

[Aceboogie]

Wouldnt be suprised to see RNH get 20-25 goals this year. Been saying it since mid last season that RNH had a massively unlucky season. Just due to regression hes due for bounce back. I liked him last year and continue to like the small things in his game. Ill admit he hasnt developed as I hope he does, but I dont buy for one second hes a bad player. I think this year HFOil will start to love RNH, but moreso because he starts getting lucky bounces, vs an actual significant improvement in play

 

[Dorian2]

Nuge was mentioning in the pregame interview that he and Jokinen are beginning to build a bit of chemistry. Would like to see that blossom into something fruitful for the Oilers.

 

[ujju2]

That's horrible, horrible management. Centre is a much more valuable position for a reason.

McDavid as your 1C and Nuge as your 2C are anchors for two very solid lines.

1-Maroon/McDavid/Drai with 2-Lucic/Nuge/Strome is vastly inferior to
1-Maroon/McDavid/Strome with 2-Lucic/Drai/Caggs or Slepy.

I completely disagree. I vastly prefer MaroonMcDavidDrai - LucicNugeStrome. It gets you another potential 50+ point player into the top 6. Now, for chemistry, I'm not sure Lucic-Nuge really works, so I'll give you that. But that's all.

 

[ujju2]

Wouldnt be suprised to see RNH get 20-25 goals this year. Been saying it since mid last season that RNH had a massively unlucky season. Just due to regression hes due for bounce back. I liked him last year and continue to like the small things in his game. Ill admit he hasnt developed as I hope he does, but I dont buy for one second hes a bad player. I think this year HFOil will start to love RNH, but moreso because he starts getting lucky bounces, vs an actual significant improvement in play

And I completely agree with your assessment.

 

[ujju2]

there's zero chance Nuge gets 60 points this year unless he's playing 2nd line center and top PP minutes

20G and 50 pts. while playing the tough minutes is enough for me

Yeah, 20 goals and 50 points I'd consider a successful season given his likely spot in the lineup. Enough to keep him imo.

 

[FlameChampion]

Still a really big fan of the player, I like him.

I wish he wasnt so complacent though. I remember last year when TM challenged Draitsaitl to be the best player on the ice, even though McDavid was on the team. I was watching the interview today and someone asked RNH about playing 3rd line and I was kinda hoping that he would say his goal was to be the best player on the ice or that he wasnt going to let 3rd line minutes stop him or something, but he just just accepts everything. Granted this doesnt mean a whole lot because hockey players are boring interviews but yeah. His interviews always leave a bit more to be desired from.

From watching him last year I think his hockey/defensive awareness is pretty good but I think he would get caught in lapses where he was trying too hard to cover up his wingers poor defensive games. I am actually pretty interested to see him play with Jokinen, hopefully he can trust Jokinen to play his game and let RNH do his own job. I think RNH just overthinks too much stuff out there, then tries to play so safe that it ends up killing his creativity or second guesses himself or his teammate and it ends up in the back of the net. The coaching staff has made him aware that they want him to take more calculated risks so hopefully it allows him to open up a bit more.

I hope he has a good year and I hope the media doesnt burn him at the stake. Based on last couple seasons, hes not a 6 mil a year player, but hes still a good player. Hope he has a big year.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Nuge gets 60 this season.

That's what people used to say about Snowpants.

 

[Aceboogie]

That's what people used to say about Snowpants.

Gags 50 last year, so anything can happen