Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins '17-18 Season

[Asiaoil]

It's pre-season and "who cares time" for vets - but RNH was skating well. Still taking muffin shots from the outside and weak on the boards and down low in the defensive zone against big lines like Schiefle/Laine/Wheeler. But those guys are a load for anyone (nice line) and we will need Drai/Looch/Slepy to deal with them.

To Fourier's point - you still can't ex-post pull a small part of the season out and pretend it doesn't exist. I could pull RNH's last 9 games out where he scored 9 points against "dead teams walking" and say his G/60 and boxcars were even worse. You just can't legitimately create alternative facts like that. RNH plays tough comp but he doesn't do it particularly well when teams play for keeps. The playoffs showed that in spades. He's our 3rd best center and we can upgrade our size/defense at 3C and replace a good chunk of his point for far less than $6 million (and we will have to next year). Hope he plays well to get as much as possible in return but he really wont be missed.

 

[Fourier]

It's pre-season and "who cares time" for vets - but RNH was skating well. Still taking muffin shots from the outside and weak on the boards and down low in the defensive zone against big lines like Schiefle/Laine/Wheeler. But those guys are a load for anyone (nice line) and we will need Drai/Looch/Slepy to deal with them.

To Fourier's point - you still can't ex-post pull a small part of the season out and pretend it doesn't exist. I could pull RNH's last 9 games out where he scored 9 points against "dead teams walking" and say his G/60 and boxcars were even worse. You just can't legitimately create alternative facts like that. RNH plays tough comp but he doesn't do it particularly well when teams play for keeps. The playoffs showed that in spades. He's our 3rd best center and we can upgrade our size/defense at 3C and replace a good chunk of his point for far less than $6 million (and we will have to next year). Hope he plays well to get as much as possible in return but he really wont be missed.

But you are still looking at this from the wrong perspective. I never suggested they did not happen. What I pointed out was that the negative stats from a relatively small portion of the season (about 15 games) where not just Nuge but the whole team played poorly against teams that they have traditionally beaten skewed the picture over the whole season.

I'd also like to see one plausible example of an available bigger center who is better defensively who regularly puts up similar numbers playing Nuge's role and who makes far less than $6M. I'd say hat guy does not exist because he would be worth far too much to his own team to move in a trade for anything but a significant over pay but if you have some names I'd like to hear them.

It's also interesting that the sense is that he plays well when games don't count but in fact his best stretch by far last year was the last 30 or so games of the year which were certainly the most important games this franchise has had in a decade. You can dismiss games like the two against Colorado but those were 4 important points and the team slept through the beginning of first game which they could have lost. It's also rewriting history to suggest that the LA games were just late season mop-ups. LA was fighting for a playoff spot and is a team the Oilers traditionally struggled against. The Oilers were still in a spot where they could win a division title or end up in a Wild Card spot depending on how these games went. In that 9 game stretch the only gimme really was the last game vs the Canucks. BUt even then the Canucks were playing teams very hard down the stretch. They didn't win a lot but there kids were going full out.

And the cliam that he was dominated in the playoffs also does not hold up. In the San Jose series the line had a very good defensive series by anyone's standards. They also generated lots of scoring chances but did not score.

In the Anaheim series the narrative was that Nuge's line was dominated by Getzlaf's line. What is undeniably true is that they were outscored 4-1 by the Getzlaf line. And they deserve to wear that. But I have already shown on multiple occasions that by the same statistical analysis that Woodguy used to make his claim that Nuge was not effective, they actually carried the majority of the play vs Getzlaf's line. And if you compare how Nuge's line did vs other Oiler lines and other lines from other teams that played Anaheim they fared very well in every aspect except goals scored. Again, they generated chances but did not finish. So you can't have it both ways and use the same stats in one situation to claim ineffectiveness and then dismiss these stats in the playoffs.

Now you can say that outscoring is all that counts but Nuge was only a negative 1 in two games in that series despite the line ES scoring woes and one of those games was game 6 where the Oilers blew out the Ducks.

 

[ujju2]

Anyone else think that the way slashes are being called is helping Nuge's game?

 

[FlameChampion]

I think playing with Jokinen will be good for RNH. Jokinen is smart, good defensively ... RNH doesnt have to worry about him and can just focus on playing his game.

 

[nabob]

Oh please.

He was a drain on last seasons team. By a significant margin the worst staple player in the top 6. The Oilers had their best season in decades in spite of RNHs ineptitude.

As for it being neither his worst season offensively nor defensively. It was very clearly his worst season offensively. His point per game rate was well below any other season in his career. He lacked any semblance of offensive creativity and became an even more one-note player than usual. Its tougher to quantify his defensive. In relation to the rest of the team though it certainly was his worst season in that regard as well. In the past he got away with being subpar defensively because the rest of the team was as bad or worse and we were all desperate to see positives in his pedestrian game. But last season the Oilers improved leaps and bounds defensively. Even a traditionally 1-way player in Eberle made significant strides in his defensive game. Nuge didn't improve one iota. Still had no clue how to defend below his hashmarks. Still caught standing around missing defensive assignments. Still weak along the boards. Still garbage on faceoffs.

Praises Eberle for defensive play while slagging Nuge for defensive play Now I have seen it all from you.


Still waiting for you to back up the statement that Nuge was the Oilers #2C for the ENTIRE year last season.

 

[PaPaDee]

I think playing with Jokinen will be good for RNH. Jokinen is smart, good defensively ... RNH doesnt have to worry about him and can just focus on playing his game.

I agree, and the two do look like they're building some chemistry with each other. I'd still like to see Puli play with them to see if they can click as a unit.

 

[Aceboogie]

Got a feeling RNH will have a good year. Ive said it for years now but RNHs offense took major hits every year as he was often the sole defensive player on this line. In the D zone he was constantly playing low and last forward on rushes, in the O zone he was almost always the high guy and not involved in the action down low. Both done to ensure he was in a good spot defensively, and this put him in crappy positions to be dangerous

Only 2 games in preseason but the help RNH has gotten defensively from JJ last night and Puljujarvi in game 1 has allowed him to get in way better positions offensively. When is the last time we saw RNH behind the goal line on a dump in. Goes in there, hits some bodies, steals the puck, causes havoc and ends up with a goal (in Calgary). He hasnt been able to do that since his rookie season

 

[McNuge]

Got a feeling RNH will have a good year. Ive said it for years now but RNHs offense took major hits every year as he was often the sole defensive player on this line. In the D zone he was constantly playing low and last forward on rushes, in the O zone he was almost always the high guy and not involved in the action down low. Both done to ensure he was in a good spot defensively, and this put him in crappy positions to be dangerous

Only 2 games in preseason but the help RNH has gotten defensively from JJ last night and Puljujarvi in game 1 has allowed him to get in way better positions offensively. When is the last time we saw RNH behind the goal line on a dump in. Goes in there, hits some bodies, steals the puck, causes havoc and ends up with a goal (in Calgary). He hasnt been able to do that since his rookie season

Agreed, I think he's also been the only defensively responsible player on his line the entire time he has been an Oiler. JJ in the 2 games he has played has looked like the exact player RNH has needed on his line. Fingers crossed he has a coming out party this year.

 

[Aceboogie]

Agreed, I think he's also been the only defensively responsible player on his line the entire time he has been an Oiler. JJ in the 2 games he has played has looked like the exact player RNH has needed on his line. Fingers crossed he has a coming out party this year.

For like half a season when Nelson was coach, Pouliot was used in a more two way role and helped out RNH defensively, and it was no coincidence that in that period Nuge had like 30 points in 40 games or something crazy

 

[Bank Shot]

I'd also like to see one plausible example of an available bigger center who is better defensively who regularly puts up similar numbers playing Nuge's role and who makes far less than $6M. I'd say hat guy does not exist because he would be worth far too much to his own team to move in a trade for anything but a significant over pay but if you have some names I'd like to hear them.

I'd say guys like Couturier and Turris fit the bill. Comparable players that make about half the money of RNH.

You won't get those guys in trade though, and you won't be able to trade for an established version of RNH for cheap.

The key will be in the Oilers finding a guy that has yet to establish himself, and then trade for him. Not easy, but not impossible. Turris was acquired this way. Any new center the Oilers acquire will have a hard time earning a big salary like Nuge as they won't be gifted first line opportunities like Nuge was.

 

[Asiaoil]

But you are still looking at this from the wrong perspective. I never suggested they did not happen. What I pointed out was that the negative stats from a relatively small portion of the season (about 15 games) where not just Nuge but the whole team played poorly against teams that they have traditionally beaten skewed the picture over the whole season.

I'd also like to see one plausible example of an available bigger center who is better defensively who regularly puts up similar numbers playing Nuge's role and who makes far less than $6M. I'd say hat guy does not exist because he would be worth far too much to his own team to move in a trade for anything but a significant over pay but if you have some names I'd like to hear them.

It's also interesting that the sense is that he plays well when games don't count but in fact his best stretch by far last year was the last 30 or so games of the year which were certainly the most important games this franchise has had in a decade. You can dismiss games like the two against Colorado but those were 4 important points and the team slept through the beginning of first game which they could have lost. It's also rewriting history to suggest that the LA games were just late season mop-ups. LA was fighting for a playoff spot and is a team the Oilers traditionally struggled against. The Oilers were still in a spot where they could win a division title or end up in a Wild Card spot depending on how these games went. In that 9 game stretch the only gimme really was the last game vs the Canucks. BUt even then the Canucks were playing teams very hard down the stretch. They didn't win a lot but there kids were going full out.

And the cliam that he was dominated in the playoffs also does not hold up. In the San Jose series the line had a very good defensive series by anyone's standards. They also generated lots of scoring chances but did not score.

In the Anaheim series the narrative was that Nuge's line was dominated by Getzlaf's line. What is undeniably true is that they were outscored 4-1 by the Getzlaf line. And they deserve to wear that. But I have already shown on multiple occasions that by the same statistical analysis that Woodguy used to make his claim that Nuge was not effective, they actually carried the majority of the play vs Getzlaf's line. And if you compare how Nuge's line did vs other Oiler lines and other lines from other teams that played Anaheim they fared very well in every aspect except goals scored. Again, they generated chances but did not finish. So you can't have it both ways and use the same stats in one situation to claim ineffectiveness and then dismiss these stats in the playoffs.

Now you can say that outscoring is all that counts but Nuge was only a negative 1 in two games in that series despite the line ES scoring woes and one of those games was game 6 where the Oilers blew out the Ducks.

Corsi is a secondary indicator that does not correlate to winning and you know that. Who cares if you "carry the play" (whatever that means) if you get dominated physically, give up goals, get out-scored and lose. That is what happened to the RNH line against ANA. You can pull stats that color it differently (it's not hard) but they were run over in that series.

You are also again indulging in the measurement fallasy and only considering RNH replacements who match offensive points. That is thinking that led to the disaster of rebuild 1.0 where the Austins, Gagner etc were going to light up the league offensively but instead got pummeled almost ever night. Guys like Pageau, Smith, or even Jarkrok etc etc would be a small downgrade in points but vastly superior in other areas. Even just considering points - no cap team can afford a $6 million 3rd line center. RNH is an entirely replaceable player. Like Eberle. We need more size, better defensive zone coverage in front of the net, more competitiveness along the baords, and better faceoff ability in a RH package ideally. RNH skated well last night but all of the negatives were also on full display if you want to look.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

As funny as it sounds, I could see Nuge's offence on the PP benefiting from Sekera being out.

Right now the second unit's shaping up to complement Nuge, much like it did in his rookie year. Jokinen fills much the same role as Hall, as the down low/goal line support option who can also rotate and QB the play (or similar to Draisaitl and McDavid on the top unit). Benning or Larson take the role of Potter as the RH point shot (the big point in helping RNH); Strome for Eberle, and Maroon in for Horcoff as the guy in front of the net.

 

[Aceboogie]

RNH skated well last night but all of the negatives were also on full display if you want to look.[/QUOTE]

Lmao, the anti RNH crowd to a T, if you look for negatives in any player youll find them. RNH was a stud all playoffs and to try and color it differently is just reaching for anything to use against RNH

All love that when actual stats are brought into things, people go "wow, wow, enough with these objective stats, let me substitute my own subjective opinion chalked full of biases in here"

 

[Asiaoil]

RNH skated well last night but all of the negatives were also on full display if you want to look.[/QUOTE]

Lmao, the anti RNH crowd to a T, if you look for negatives in any player youll find them. RNH was a stud all playoffs and to try and color it differently is just reaching for anything to use against RNH

All love that when actual stats are brought into things, people go "wow, wow, enough with these objective stats, let me substitute my own subjective opinion chalked full of biases in here"

Here is your "stud" in last years playoffs.....13 games going 0-4-4 -3
His line was useless and a major reason we did not go further
Pushed around like a teenager by Getzlaf with zero push-back

RNH has been replaced and the names of the players who did this are McDavid and Drai. Far superior players by almost all measures. He's our 3rd best center and we have the luxury of using him in in a 3rd line role this season before McDavid's contract hits next season. We are lucky to be able to deploy him like this but he is simply a decent top 6 player who is way over-paid and ill-suited for any longterm role on THIS team.

Is what it is, and I hope the heat will make him a better player this season before we ship him off next summer for a quality young forward on an ELC - but it might even happen at the deadline in a bigger deal that gets us a UFA 3C back as well in the package for the playoffs (RNH and Paigin for Lekhonen and Plekanec?).

 

[Aerchon]

Here is your "stud" in last years playoffs.....13 games going 0-4-4 -3
His line was useless and a major reason we did not go further
Pushed around like a teenager by Getzlaf with zero push-back

RNH has been replaced and the names of the players who did this are McDavid and Drai. Far superior players by almost all measures. He's our 3rd best center and we have the luxury of using him in in a 3rd line role this season before McDavid's contract hits next season. We are lucky to be able to deploy him like this but he is simply a decent top 6 player who is way over-paid and ill-suited for any longterm role on THIS team.

Is what it is, and I hope the heat will make him a better player this season before we ship him off next summer for a quality young forward on an ELC - but it might even happen at the deadline in a bigger deal that gets us a UFA 3C back as well in the package for the playoffs (RNH and Paigin for Lekhonen and Plekanec?).

The hate is strong in this one. (Emperor Voice-over)

If you didn't watch the playoffs you should have just said so. Nuge was awesome against SJS and solid overall against Ana. Lost a battle or two against Getzlaf... Getzlaf in full beast mode...

Your post comes off as pure irrational rage.

 

[MessierII]

There's not an argument to be made that Nuge was good in the playoffs. If he accomplished anything we would have been in the conference finals. At best he was a non factor.

 

[Aerchon]

There's not an argument to be made that Nuge was good in the playoffs. If he accomplished anything we would have been in the conference finals. At best he was a non factor.

I watched a completely different playoffs.

Nuge was good to great, doing literally everything but score while playing against some rather tough competition... in the playoffs.

If your really really bored I'm sure you could go check the GDT threads for all the times people were complimenting him. Outside of that brutal giveaway at point blank against Getzlaf, who was having a monster series, he was very good.

Think people focus on points too much on these boards.

 

[Soundwave]

RNH needs to have a tremendous season if he wants to stay. "Not bad" or even "good" probably isn't good enough. He needs to show that he can drive a line for stretches and can put up 50+ points minimum.

 

[nabob]

I watched a completely different playoffs.

Nuge was good to great, doing literally everything but score while playing against some rather tough competition... in the playoffs.

If your really really bored I'm sure you could go check the GDT threads for all the times people were complimenting him. Outside of that brutal giveaway at point blank against Getzlaf, who was having a monster series, he was very good.

Think people focus on points too much on these boards.

There's a reason why the actual media and the coach was praising him, they know what they are talking about. Some posters only look at box scores and some simply don't like players.

 

[Bank Shot]

I watched a completely different playoffs.

Nuge was good to great, doing literally everything but score while playing against some rather tough competition... in the playoffs.

If your really really bored I'm sure you could go check the GDT threads for all the times people were complimenting him. Outside of that brutal giveaway at point blank against Getzlaf, who was having a monster series, he was very good.

Think people focus on points too much on these boards.

Well San Jose had a past his prime Thornton playing on one leg, a face smushed Couture, and Marleau going with a broken thumb and these guys all still had respectable stats for the series.

RNH was decent, but he didn't play at a level commensurate to his salary in the playoffs, and to say he was great, really lowers the bar on the meaning of the word.

 

[Arpeggio]

I thought RNH got pretty unlucky in the playoffs, he hit a few posts and had a few other really close calls. Add three goals to those four assists and nobody would be complaining. Just a shame he couldn't get one to drop. At least he had chances I thought, as opposed to someone like Eberle who know one could argue had even a decent playoff. At least that argument can be made for RNH, in my mind.

 

[belair]

Well San Jose had a past his prime Thornton playing on one leg, a face smushed Couture, and Marleau going with a broken thumb and these guys all still had respectable stats for the series.

RNH was decent, but he didn't play at a level commensurate to his salary in the playoffs, and to say he was great, really lowers the bar on the meaning of the word.

Nobody had respectable stats in that series for San Jose. The Oilers effectively silenced their potent offensive threats. Besides one 7-0 hiccup, guys like Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Brent Burns were held to minimal production. Without that game Pavelski had one assist, Burns had zero points. RNH was extremely effective in shutting down that Thornton-Pavelski line.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

This thread has become so polarized that both sides (anti and pro Nuge) are out too lunch. Both sides are just as ridiculous and biased, when in reality Nuge is probably something in the middle of what you guys are arguing.

 

[AM]

I watched a completely different playoffs.

Nuge was good to great, doing literally everything but score while playing against some rather tough competition... in the playoffs.

If your really really bored I'm sure you could go check the GDT threads for all the times people were complimenting him. Outside of that brutal giveaway at point blank against Getzlaf, who was having a monster series, he was very good.

Think people focus on points too much on these boards.

The race is not to the fastest, nor the fight to the strongest, but time and chance happen to them all.

If the Ducks wouldn't have had the stripes in their pocket the Oilers would have pushed them aside and we wouldn't be having these discussions.

 

[nabob]

The race is not to the fastest, nor the fight to the strongest, but time and chance happen to them all.

If the Ducks wouldn't have had the stripes in their pocket the Oilers would have pushed them aside and we wouldn't be having these discussions.

Sure we would be. Some "fans" are trying desperately to point out that even though he had three points last game and it looked like he was the best player on the ice, "but all of the negatives were also on full display". If there ever was an example of haters gonna hate, that is it. Most haters like Spawn just stay quiet when he plays well then pipe up the second he makes a mistake. But some are desperate to find a negative in a sea of positives.