RW/LW Vasili Podkolzin - SKA-Neva St.Petersburg, VHL (2019, 10th, VAN)

[lakai17]

He should be making the team with his skill and his previous International experience representing his country.

 

[kp61c]

He should be making the team with his skill and his previous International experience representing his country.

why? he can't produce in the vhl and not even a ppg player in the mhl. he shouldn't.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think he should make the team over mediocre players who will make it because they have more high level pro games. He’s a bigger talent and more likely to influence the scoresheet in a junior hockey tournament, but I also think he’s overrated. I’m not going to claim I’ve watched his MHL and VHL games because I haven’t, but his stats are mediocre for a player being discussed in the top 5. I think he’s more of a 10-15 range prospect.

 

[FrankGallagher]

I think he should make the team over mediocre players who will make it because they have more high level pro games. He’s a bigger talent and more likely to influence the scoresheet in a junior hockey tournament, but I also think he’s overrated. I’m not going to claim I’ve watched his MHL and VHL games because I haven’t, but his stats are mediocre for a player being discussed in the top 5. I think he’s more of a 10-15 range prospect.

Good that you're honest about that, and can see how someone just seeing his stats might think he's overrated. I don't think many people know how difficult scoring in the MHL is. Look at the WJAC, Russia's team was full of slightly above average MHL players and guys that barely even play there, despite this they were very competitive with USA who was filled with high end USHL guys. Also easily handled a team like Canada West even with a strong Jr. A group this year.

You do not find Podkolzins combo of skill and determination outside the top 5. Only thing that could cause him to slip would be that he's in SKA's organization and they likely get a couple years out of him before he leaves. There won't be any scouts knocking him down lists for his few MHL, and VHL games where he hasn't put up a ton despite generating a lot. Has also dominated every tournament he's been in this year statically if that's what matters. I think scouts take more note of him diving around blocking shots with 2 minutes to play in clear wins, or completely taking over shifts right when his team needs it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Good that you're honest about that, and can see how someone just seeing his stats might think he's overrated. I don't think many people know how difficult scoring in the MHL is. Look at the WJAC, Russia's team was full of slightly above average MHL players and guys that barely even play there, despite this they were very competitive with USA who was filled with high end USHL guys. Also easily handled a team like Canada West even with a strong Jr. A group this year.

You do not find Podkolzins combo of skill and determination outside the top 5. Only thing that could cause him to slip would be that he's in SKA's organization and they likely get a couple years out of him before he leaves. There won't be any scouts knocking him down lists for his few MHL, and VHL games where he hasn't put up a ton despite generating a lot. Has also dominated every tournament he's been in this year statically if that's what matters. I think scouts take more note of him diving around blocking shots with 2 minutes to play in clear wins, or completely taking over shifts right when his team needs it.

The US team was not filled with high-end USHL guys. There were a couple of high-end USHL players. The same could be said for the Russian team with high-end MHL players. There were a couple of high-end MHL players on Russia's roster.

If Podkolzin is so good, why doesn't he produce that well in the MHL or VHL? I'm not questioning whether he's a good prospect. I think he is. If he is going to be discussed in the top 5-10, I think good stats would almost need to be mandatory in a junior league. If you can't produce against players the majority of which will not play professional hockey, how are you going to produce when you play high-level professional hockey? Thats not to say that there are no mediocre stat players that turn into good NHL'ers, but I think its way too risky to pick them in the top 10.

His draft profile reminds me of Denisenko's. Very average club production for a good prospect, but he was excellent for Russia internationally. Denisenko probably went too high though, but his draft range wasn't surprising, considering Russians often aren't well scouted at the club level and tend to be picked disproportionately based on their play at international tournaments that are easier for scouts to get to than games in Russia.

 

[FrankGallagher]

The US team was not filled with high-end USHL guys. There were a couple of high-end USHL players. The same could be said for the Russian team with high-end MHL players. There were a couple of high-end MHL players on Russia's roster.

If Podkolzin is so good, why doesn't he produce that well in the MHL or VHL? I'm not questioning whether he's a good prospect. I think he is. If he is going to be discussed in the top 5-10, I think good stats would almost need to be mandatory in a junior league. If you can't produce against players the majority of which will not play professional hockey, how are you going to produce when you play high-level professional hockey? Thats not to say that there are no mediocre stat players that turn into good NHL'ers, but I think its way too risky to pick them in the top 10.

His draft profile reminds me of Denisenko's. Very average club production for a good prospect, but he was excellent for Russia internationally. Denisenko probably went too high though, but his draft range wasn't surprising, considering Russians often aren't well scouted at the club level and tend to be picked disproportionately based on their play at international tournaments that are easier for scouts to get to than games in Russia.

There was not a single player on the Russian team who produces over a point per game in MHL, it is a very difficult league to score in. Top 4 D like Chityakov and Tiuvillin who are two way guys both have under 5 points on the year... Go to elite prospects and look over the stat lines and tell me if that looks like equal talent in their leagues.

In the MHL for SKA 3 lines played pretty evenly without preferential treatment for power play for starters. But Marchenko-Morozov-Podkolzin line was dominant and just not finishing their chances from what I saw. There can be a lot of room for error in a small sample size. In his VHL games Podkolzin has had a similar issue of not converting though he's not dominating those games to the same degree. These games are available for free so if you disagree with my judgement that he's looked good you can go watch.

So your suggestion is to throw out all the information you gain from viewings because their stats aren't good enough to go top 10? Scouting is about tools and projecting how those look moving forward, there's a reason lots of high scoring guys that never go on to produce are taking at the points they should be. There is no where near 10 guys in this draft that even have an argument for being taken over him.

Denisenko was definitely not a reach and doesn't look like one yet either, he's another player with dynamic skill and speed and tools that project to the NHL level. Densienko was a lot more plagued with inconsistency and occasional lack of effort than Podkolzin. Watch Podkolzin play, he's one of the most passionate, high energy players in this draft. On top of that he has impressive speed and the ability to make plays at high paces. Elite shot, great puck protection, hell he even has break the other team down vision on the PP. A scout will not throw all that away because he had 7 points in 10 MHL games before his organization evaluated him to be too good for that level.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There was not a single player on the Russian team who produces over a point per game in MHL, it is a very difficult league to score in. Top 4 D like Chityakov and Tiuvillin who are two way guys both have under 5 points on the year... Go to elite prospects and look over the stat lines and tell me if that looks like equal talent in their leagues.

In the MHL for SKA 3 lines played pretty evenly without preferential treatment for power play for starters. But Marchenko-Morozov-Podkolzin line was dominant and just not finishing their chances from what I saw. There can be a lot of room for error in a small sample size. In his VHL games Podkolzin has had a similar issue of not converting though he's not dominating those games to the same degree. These games are available for free so if you disagree with my judgement that he's looked good you can go watch.

So your suggestion is to throw out all the information you gain from viewings because their stats aren't good enough to go top 10? Scouting is about tools and projecting how those look moving forward, there's a reason lots of high scoring guys that never go on to produce are taking at the points they should be. There is no where near 10 guys in this draft that even have an argument for being taken over him.

Denisenko was definitely not a reach and doesn't look like one yet either, he's another player with dynamic skill and speed and tools that project to the NHL level. Densienko was a lot more plagued with inconsistency and occasional lack of effort than Podkolzin. Watch Podkolzin play, he's one of the most passionate, high energy players in this draft. On top of that he has impressive speed and the ability to make plays at high paces. Elite shot, great puck protection, hell he even has break the other team down vision on the PP. A scout will not throw all that away because he had 7 points in 10 MHL games before his organization evaluated him to be too good for that level.

EP also tells me that three of his teammates at the WJAC are averaging a higher PPG than him.

He has under-produced in the MHL and the VHL. I'm not saying that he's playing huge minutes, but he's not playing such low minutes either that there would be no way that he could produce much better. He plays 16:04 per game in the MHL with 7 points in 10 games. Decent, but certainly mediocre for a player being considered top 5 in the NHL draft. In the VHL, he's played 7 games and has 1 point. Minutes are lower here, 12:58, but they aren't so low that it would be impossible to have 3-4 points instead of 1.

All of this is definitely a SSS, but the international tournaments are also a small sample size. Thats why I say there's a lot of risk with picking Podkolzin in the top 10. I'm not making the point that he is definitely not a top 10 caliber player. I think its too risky to pick him there. Based on what I've seen, his skill-set belongs somewhere towards the back half of the top ten range, but I don't think there's another player being considered in that range who has such average production at the club level, like Podkolzin. I think its important to consider all the different factors, one of which should be club play. Thats why I wouldn't want my team taking that risk of picking him in the top 10.

I don't have time to watch SKA's farm teams. If he plays minutes at the KHL level, there's a good chance I might see some of it. I realize that he might be playing great in these games. If thats the case, maybe that'll show up in the stats by the end of the season. Right now, the stats are mediocre. Based on the information I have, I would not want my team selecting him in the top 10. As for Denisenko, he has 3 points in 15 games in his draft+1 season. He was picked in the top half of the first round. I think you'd expect better production. His minutes are low 10:22, but its not unreasonable that he could be producing better. Vitaly Kravtsov, picked only a couple of picks before Denisenko, doesn't average big minutes. He plays 15:30, but he's averaging over half a point per game.

 

[Zine]

I think he should make the team over mediocre players who will make it because they have more high level pro games. He’s a bigger talent and more likely to influence the scoresheet in a junior hockey tournament, but I also think he’s overrated. I’m not going to claim I’ve watched his MHL and VHL games because I haven’t, but his stats are mediocre for a player being discussed in the top 5. I think he’s more of a 10-15 range prospect.

So you admit you haven't watched 1 second of Podkolzin's MHL/VHL games?.....yet are ranking him outside the top 5 because his stats?

From that point of view, you would've had Brady Tkachuk outside the top 5 too; a player who excelled in international play but whose club stats weren't anything special. Tkachuk's NCAA stats were virtually identical to 2018 5th and 3rd round picks Krause and Hutsko.

As Frank Gallagher pointed out to you, scouting isn't about stats, it's about analyzing skill-sets and projecting how those tools will look moving forward.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So you admit you haven't watched 1 second of Podkolzin's MHL/VHL games?.....yet are ranking him outside the top 5 because his stats?

From that point of view, you would've had Brady Tkachuk outside the top 5 too; a player who excelled in international play but whose club stats weren't anything special. Tkachuk's NCAA stats were virtually identical to 2018 5th and 3rd round picks Krause and Hutsko.

As Frank Gallagher pointed out to you, scouting isn't about stats, it's about tools and projecting how those tools look moving forward.

I think I made it pretty clear that I've watched him play before. I've seen him play probably around 10 times.

 

[Zine]

I think I made it pretty clear that I've watched him play before. I've seen him play probably around 10 times.

You haven't watched one second of his club play, yet you claim to have enough info to not rank him top 5, mainly because of his club stats.
Let me remind you:

If Podkolzin is so good, why doesn't he produce that well in the MHL or VHL?

That's literally like some bozo not watching 1 second of Brady Tkachuk at Boston University and claiming he's not top 5 because of his NCAA stats.

 

[Legend123]

I really hope he drops cuz he does fit the bill of player dropping due to ppl just looking at stats and saying 'i thought he was better'

 

[jvr32]

I think he might drop because I remember him saying he has no hurry to go to NA which might scare GMs.

 

[vorky]

I think he might drop because I remember him saying he has no hurry to go to NA which might scare GMs.

That is a great decision by himself if true. All European prospects should follow him.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You haven't watched one second of his club play, yet you claim to have enough info to not rank him top 5, mainly because of his club stats.
Let me remind you:



That's literally like some bozo not watching 1 second of Brady Tkachuk at Boston University and claiming he's not top 5 because of his NCAA stats.

There’s no reason to distort what I said. Everyone gathers all the info they can to make judgements on where they think players should be ranked. Based on what I’ve seen, Podkolzin should not be picked in the top 10. This is a website for fans. No one here is a professional scout. I don’t have the time to watch Podkolzin in the MHL/VHL. I don’t really care if I’m wrong. Should I make sure you have extensive viewings at every level of every prospect you give an opinion on?

If you are so knowledgeable about Podkolzin’s MHL/VHL play, why is he not scoring points? You seem to want to criticize others, instead of making the case for Podkolzin.

 

[FrankGallagher]

There’s no reason to distort what I said. Everyone gathers all the info they can to make judgements on where they think players should be ranked. Based on what I’ve seen, Podkolzin should not be picked in the top 10. This is a website for fans. No one here is a professional scout. I don’t have the time to watch Podkolzin in the MHL/VHL. I don’t really care if I’m wrong. Should I make sure you have extensive viewings at every level of every prospect you give an opinion on?

If you are so knowledgeable about Podkolzin’s MHL/VHL play, why is he not scoring points? You seem to want to criticize others, instead of making the case for Podkolzin.

To make a bold claim on a prospect, ya you really should have seen them play.

 

[cgf]

Podkolzin is a 200-foot menace. Easily the most abrasive of the top draft forwards. Go down the list — there is nobody with his anger, temperment and violence. Datsyuk was a gentleman. Tarasenko is marginal on his side of the red line. Podkolzin is neither.

He’s a throwback North American. More like Adam Deadmarsh, Dale Hunter or Dirk Graham but with greater potential for scoring.

His tenacity + dynamism remind me of a young Radulov; even if his skillset is more that of a young Panarin.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

To make a bold claim on a prospect, ya you really should have seen them play.

But I have and I said that already a number of times. I’m going to leave this conversation because it’s clear the Podkolzin-defenders don’t care to address anything that was asked and just want to throw criticism the way of someone who asks real questions about his game.

 

[cgf]

But I have and I said that already a number of times. I’m going to leave this conversation because it’s clear the Podkolzin-defenders don’t care to address anything that was asked and just want to throw criticism the way of someone who asks real questions about his game.

Asking why he's not tearing up the MHL isn't a real question about his game though. We've seen great talents not produce in that league in their draft years before because the circumstances were unfavorable. And it's not like we've never seen him put it together in any setting, to know what he's capable of.

If you wanna ask about his game do so. What in those 10 games that you watched did you see that could explain his production not being as impressive as some previous top talents' production was better than circumstances just not being favorable? Do you worry that he gambles on doing the spectacular too often? Is his shot or shiftiness not really as great as it looks when he is clicking? Ask a real question about his game.

 

[FrankGallagher]

But I have and I said that already a number of times. I’m going to leave this conversation because it’s clear the Podkolzin-defenders don’t care to address anything that was asked and just want to throw criticism the way of someone who asks real questions about his game.

You can read my posts where I said he is generating chances at a high rate and just not converting. By the way you're not asking questions about his game, you're asking about his stats. For a prospect I'd argue the process(how they play) is more important than the result(stats) in projecting them moving forward. When I have seen Podkolzin I see a player with elite skill and compete who has the potential to be a game breaker in the NHL.

 

[FrankGallagher]

You can read my posts where I said he is generating chances at a high rate and just not converting. By the way you're not asking questions about his game, you're asking about his stats. For a prospect I'd argue the process(how they play) is more important than the result(stats) in projecting them moving forward, with the process being more repeatable than short term puck luck. When I have seen Podkolzin I see a player with elite skill and compete who has the potential to be a game breaker in the NHL.

 

[tigervixxxen]

This Podkolzin can't produce is a straw man. We are talking 17 games here. 10 in the MHL and 7 in the VHL. Podkolzin has been on three different club teams in Russia (MHL, VHL, KHL) and now part of five different national teams since the beginning of the season (Hlinka, U18 friendly vs Czech, Four Nations, WJAC and WJC camp). He is a young 17 year old who was playing in a U17 league last year, he wasn't even at the MHL level last year.

He starts the season after the Hlinka in the MHL and puts up 7 points in 10 games with 5 goals and this is somehow a production problem? Since then he's been on the aforementioned six different teams. His SEVEN game stint with the VHL where he only scored one goal seems to be the issue? The VHL is a very low scoring men's league. The top player on that team is a 23 year old who has scored 23 points in 32 games. Mozorov and Marchenko each scored three points in their 11 and 14 game stints there. It's a lazy boxscore graze at best to keep thumping production issues.

Podkolzin's game is a bit raw, he doesn't have the high level experience, again he was playing U17 last year, but the talents and scoring abilities he possesses not to mention the consistent impact he makes vs his peers is what's going to get him drafted very high. This isn't some intangibles type grinder people are hoping finds the scoring touch at the next level. Podkolzin seems to be the chosen one this year that the spreadsheet community picks and latches on to as their cautionary tale but this one is not founded on any type of logic or understanding of foriegn development systems North Americans aren't familiar with. Is there any reason in his game to be concerned about scoring at the next level? To me he has the shot, hands, vision, intelligence and speed to make an impact at the next level. He drives to the interior of the ice and isn't afraid to get dirty along the boards.

Yes it's fair to ask the question but without digging deeper into the details or situation or trying to gain a better understanding about why he's being handled a certain way. If he sticks consistently with one team for the second half of the year, let's hope it's the MHL because the VHL is no place for a 17 year old, then we can see how his game and production is trending. Btw, all MHL and VHL games are archived on YouTube.

 

[landy92mack29]

To make a bold claim on a prospect, ya you really should have seen them play.

I've watched a fair amount of his MHL+VHL games as well as international games and he's 2 different players. In league play he's largely invisible despite getting plenty of opportunities and is not as aggressive as he is in tournaments. It's a big red flag as of now why he can dominate in one setting but struggle in league play. If I were to rank him based on tournaments I'd have him top 5 for sure but based on league play he's no where near a 1st rounder. I still have him in my top 10 because he has at least shown his dominance unlike other prospects but he has plenty to prove in league play as that's far more important to me than tournament play for a prospect.

 

[Fantomas]

MHL stats are highly context-dependent. They are not irrelevant, but you also don't want to read too much into them.

I look at MHL stats in cases where a player does not participate in tournaments. Otherwise tournaments give you a better sense of where he is relative to his peers.

5 goals in 10 games in the MHL is actually good production. Besides 5 goals, 2 assists is better than 2 goals, 5 assists. I just want to point this out because it's misleading to say Podkolzin has "just 7 points in 10 games." Points is a bad way to judge production, don't use it. In many cases assists are not even fairly counted.

 

[landy92mack29]

Disagree there as tournaments are highly context dependent as some players adjust easily while some don't as well as some get special treatment while others are buried for no reason. League play is far more important imo. MHL does mess up a bit for scoring but it's more accurate than the CHL for assists from what I've seen.

The one thing I don't get is the lack of hype for Pavel Dorofeyev as he has played like the top 5 talent in league play and is the better prospect to Podkolzin. He plays a more complete and in your face game too. Doesn't quite have the flash but plays a far more effective game

 

[Fantomas]

Disagree there as tournaments are highly context dependent as some players adjust easily while some don't as well as some get special treatment while others are buried for no reason.

I was referring to the MHL specifically, where a player's production will differ greatly depending on the situation. Some teams are weak and give many opportunities for youngsters to shine, some are deep and filled with older players. Some young players get big minutes (like Shafigullin last year), while others don't.

Tournament play is much more clearcut. You play against guys your age or close to it. If you're a top player like Podkolzin you will get first or second line minutes. Making quick adjustments and playing well against your peers on the competitive international stage is what scouts look for.

The one thing I don't get is the lack of hype for Pavel Dorofeyev as he has played like the top 5 talent in league play and is the better prospect to Podkolzin.

Don't think so.