Rumor: Rumours and Proposals Thread: Adam Larsson for 3-4 years at 3.75?

[Mr Positive]

I have a feeling that McDavid isn't that hard-headed. He probably knows that teams don't get built overnight.

The narrative that McDavid would eventually want out is just from jealous pundits who want to see him out of here, usually out east. I do agree that McDavid isn't the type to consider asking for a trade, but everyone has a limit. And hey, if the team squanders these precious years of his, I hope he leaves to win a cup somewhere. I appreciate him that much.

I wonder why these eastern pundits don't look at Draisaitl more for this actually. His deal is up sooner, and there has been some friction in the past when it comes to contract negotiation. He's also probably a little less patient than McDavid to secure his legacy, since he is playing not just for himself but for German hockey. He's very passionate about that. But again with him, he loves it here and he's excited to build his legacy here with McDavid. That's obvious

 

[LTIR]

I was more referring to the immediate frustration and how this could affect a few things.

So would every other player in the NHL who gets eliminated in playoffs. Things are pointing up in Edmonton. Management andcownership arent being cheap.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Have a feeling McDavid will be feeling very disappointed after this playoffs and in his mind thinking 'I give them this summer to fix this team'.

Oh here we go already and the playoffs haven’t even started for us.

 

[Anarchism]

So would every other player in the NHL who gets eliminated in playoffs. Things are pointing up in Edmonton. Management andcownership arent being cheap.

There is an assumption in your reply that the ripple effect will be negative. That hopefully is not so. Perhaps such frustration whether its public or not will cause Holland to be eventually prodded (by himself, from above, or from below). A lethargic summer by Holland just wont be acceptable to many. Change in middle or upper management is unlikely at this juncture.
As an aside the goaltending coach has survived til now, will he survive this implosion by Kostko.

 

[Anarchism]

Oh here we go already and the playoffs haven’t even started for us.

Trying to redirect the conversation away frow one way Barrie to other necessary things ....in a round about way to building of a team ...the mechanisms necessary to do this rather than just having wet dreams about 'Echiels".

 

[belair]

Trying to redirect the conversation away frow one way Barrie to other necessary things ....in a round about way to building of a team ...the mechanisms necessary to do this rather than just having wet dreams about 'Echiels".

The fact of the matter is that Edmonton's UFAs are the cream of the crop at every position this off-season.

'Building' the team via lesser players on free agent contracts is how you end up with Kassian-level mistakes on your payroll.

Just getting their own guys extended to reasonable deals is how Holland comes out of this off-season a winner. He's not in a position where he needs to 'build' anything, because that would be a complete teardown of this current roster.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Barrie was tied for 8th in EV points from defensemen and tied with a slough of players (including Adam Larsson) at 39th-61st with 4 ES goals. The reality is that he was very good in his role but not Earth shattering. I would like to bring him back but I would not overpay in terms of term. Ideally we could agree to a 3 year deal around or below $6 million AAV so that we get his best remaining years and then can re-evaluate things after that. Much of this will depend on how he does in the playoffs, if he is a sieve defensively and doesn't create much offense then I wonder how much incentive there will be on our side to give him a sizable deal.

 

[Stoneman89]

The fact of the matter is that Edmonton's UFAs are the cream of the crop at every position this off-season.

'Building' the team via lesser players on free agent contracts is how you end up with Kassian-level mistakes on your payroll.

Just getting their own guys extended to reasonable deals is how Holland comes out of this off-season a winner. He's not in a position where he needs to 'build' anything, because that would be a complete teardown of this current roster.

Exactly. IMO, this is not a free agent chasing year. Not with Frying Pan's 4.5 million cap mistake left, and Real Deal's 5.5 million leftover for 2 more years. We have some very good pieces that should be signed. And then we have some nice prospects that have come along well this year, with a couple other potentials to move into the lineup.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The fact of the matter is that Edmonton's UFAs are the cream of the crop at every position this off-season.

'Building' the team via lesser players on free agent contracts is how you end up with Kassian-level mistakes on your payroll.

Just getting their own guys extended to reasonable deals is how Holland comes out of this off-season a winner. He's not in a position where he needs to 'build' anything, because that would be a complete teardown of this current roster.

If we can sign Barrie, RNH and Lars for reasonable deals and then add another quality offensive LW and some quality veteran UFA forwards that want to chase a cup we would be in business. Oh yeah and a goalie to push Smith.

 

[Fourier]

The narrative that McDavid would eventually want out is just from jealous pundits who want to see him out of here, usually out east. I do agree that McDavid isn't the type to consider asking for a trade, but everyone has a limit. And hey, if the team squanders these precious years of his, I hope he leaves to win a cup somewhere. I appreciate him that much.

I wonder why these eastern pundits don't look at Draisaitl more for this actually. His deal is up sooner, and there has been some friction in the past when it comes to contract negotiation. He's also probably a little less patient than McDavid to secure his legacy, since he is playing not just for himself but for German hockey. He's very passionate about that. But again with him, he loves it here and he's excited to build his legacy here with McDavid. That's obvious

The reason they don't talk about Draisaitl is that they don't really acknowledge how good he is. I mean when you try like crazy to find ways to convince yourself that Matthews is better than McDavid why would you even hgive a second thought to a second line center like Leon who is really only a product of the Toronto born generational player.

 

[Anarchism]

Barrie was tied for 8th in EV points from defensemen and tied with a slough of players (including Adam Larsson) at 39th-61st with 4 ES goals. The reality is that he was very good in his role but not Earth shattering. I would like to bring him back but I would not overpay in terms of term. Ideally we could agree to a 3 year deal around or below $6 million AAV so that we get his best remaining years and then can re-evaluate things after that. Much of this will depend on how he does in the playoffs, if he is a sieve defensively and doesn't create much offense then I wonder how much incentive there will be on our side to give him a sizable deal.

It may not be the Oilers choice. Brisson got him to take this contract for a purpose. You can imagine the second part of the plan is a 30 million plus contract over 6 years in a US market (50 percent less tax) in a location where Tyson can build a foundation for the future. Not sure what his percentage for Tyson is but others have talked about 5 to 6 percent of take home for the Brisson's agency.

 

[Anarchism]

The fact of the matter is that Edmonton's UFAs are the cream of the crop at every position this off-season.

'Building' the team via lesser players on free agent contracts is how you end up with Kassian-level mistakes on your payroll.

Just getting their own guys extended to reasonable deals is how Holland comes out of this off-season a winner. He's not in a position where he needs to 'build' anything, because that would be a complete teardown of this current roster.

Was actually thinking of a couple of 'expansion' based trades and only one actual UFA. UFA's hard to identify right now and of the ones left only 50 percent would consider here as an option at reasonable money anyways.

 

[Anarchism]

AS far as goaltending we need someone that can do more than push Smith. Plus we need a back up we can send to the farm as well--at least one as the of the three that will be left in Bakersfield none project as a starter at this point (maybe we get lucky?) but its not something probable.

 

[CupofOil]

I had many depth chart ideas that involved us moving on from Larsson, but that deal is basically done, so have to move forward with him in the lineup for next year.

I wondered if we could go for Dougie Hamilton, but that would probably mean you don't keep Nurse after 2021-22 or some other shoe has to drop (maybe Klefbom never returning).

Hamilton is probably the one RHD I'd give term to. He's a monster. All situations. That's a rare UFA, you don't see them often.

As it stands now though, our left side is...shoddy for sure on pairing 2. The right D has promise for years to come, but also we have to figure out what is happening with Barrie.

They can't afford a big ticket Dman, pay Nurse after next season and bring in a legit top 6 forward in addition to Nuge. Nurse is their big ticket Dman and Larsson will be anchoring the 2nd pairing for the foreseeable future, the rest of the D will be complimentary Dmen and internal options.

As far as Barrie is concerned, if he wants the big money he'll have to get it elsewhere. I just don't see Holland breaking the bank for him with Bouchard on the cusp. If he does then Bouchard is gone because you can't commit to Barrie long term playing the exact role that Bouchard eventually will. Barrie on a 3-4 year bridge would be ideal, ease Bouchard in the next two years then move him up to a prominent role but I don't see that being realistic as Barrie will likely get term elsewhere.

 

[belair]

Exactly. IMO, this is not a free agent chasing year. Not with Frying Pan's 4.5 million cap mistake left, and Real Deal's 5.5 million leftover for 2 more years. We have some very good pieces that should be signed. And then we have some nice prospects that have come along well this year, with a couple other potentials to move into the lineup.

People talk about the risk of long-term deals with players like RNH and Barrie and I don't understand the logic. Term will minimize the cap number and hopefully remove any potential for prohibitive trade conditions. I'm not convinced that a $6m Tyson Barrie or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be a poorly valued trade asset at age 32 assuming they're a contributing member of a regular playoff team. Neither are players that seem due for massive regression statistically. They're both incredibly healthy.

In the instance Holland chooses to move on from either, what I foresee being difficult is replacing what either of them brings to the table without spending a significant amount of salary on a combination of lesser players with no actual known chemistry on our roster.

You're watching a successful team this season (despite the individual struggle of some players statistically) and there's an overwhelming number of fans prepared to turnover two of the team's top five scorers because they're worried about misspent salary and immediate regression. The 'replacements' are in many cases older than the players in question.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Talbot got out of Edmonton just before Schwartz ruined him.

 

[CupofOil]

People talk about the risk of long-term deals with his like RNH and Barrie and I don't understand the logic. Term will minimize the cap number and hopefully remove any potential for prohibitive trade conditions. I'm not convinced that a $6m Tyson Barrie or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be a poorly valued trade asset at age 32 assuming they're a contributing member of a regular playoff team. Neither are players that seem due for massive regression statistically. They're both incredibly healthy.

In the instance Holland chooses to move on from either, what I foresee being difficult is replacing what either of them brings to the table without spending a significant amount of salary on a combination of lesser players with no actual known chemistry on our roster.

You're watching a successful team this season (despite the individual struggle of some players statistically) and there's an overwhelming number of games prepared to turnover 2 of the team's top 5 scorers because they're worried about misspent salary and immediate regression. The 'replacements' are in many cases older than the players in question.

Most players hit some form of regression post 30 and you rarely see players best years occur after their late 20s so it's only natural for fans, and Holland, to be skeptical about giving too much term to players who will be on the backside of their prime and then past their prime for most of the contract if it's a 5-6+ year deal.

 

[SK13]

It's my preference that the Oilers re-sign their big UFAs but there are unique advantages to having lots of cap space right now, too.

Because so many teams are cap strapped going into an expansion draft, and almost no team that's competitive has real salary flexibility, the Oilers would be in a unique position in free agency & trade to land high value assets on the cheap either by giving up term or by willing to take on players that need to be protected.

So if, for example, Barrie and RNH both walk. Well, the Oilers have 25M to re-sign Yamamoto, Larsson, Khaira and like 3 depth players. After that it's all there for upgrading. That doesn't include a returning or retiring Oscar Klefbom, which either gives you a player or 4.1M in indefinite LTIR. It doesn't factor in possible Kassian trade, Koskinen or Neal buyouts or any number of other scenarios that stretch the Oilers cap even more.

So they'd, at minimum, probably have like 12.5M to add two or three roster upgrades. Could they feasibly land, say, Hoffman and Getzlaf for like 9M combined? Maybe. In most years Hoffman would definitely get 6.5M from someone, but nobody worth going to has cap space & the Oilers can use that.

I guess you also have to plan long term for that big Darnell Nurse extension as well. Might want to get that done this summer.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Talbot got out of Edmonton just before Schwartz ruined him.

I still don't understand how he has a job. Every goalie who has come in has gotten worse. That's a 2 or 3 year phenomenon that gets you fired but here we are 7 years later.

 

[CupofOil]

It's my preference that the Oilers re-sign their big UFAs but there are unique advantages to having lots of cap space right now, too.

Because so many teams are cap strapped going into an expansion draft, and almost no team that's competitive has real salary flexibility, the Oilers would be in a unique position in free agency & trade to land high value assets on the cheap either by giving up term or by willing to take on players that need to be protected.

So if, for example, Barrie and RNH both walk. Well, the Oilers have 25M to re-sign Yamamoto, Larsson, Khaira and like 3 depth players. After that it's all there for upgrading. That doesn't include a returning or retiring Oscar Klefbom, which either gives you a player or 4.1M in indefinite LTIR. It doesn't factor in possible Kassian trade, Koskinen or Neal buyouts or any number of other scenarios that stretch the Oilers cap even more.

So they'd, at minimum, probably have like 12.5M to add two or three roster upgrades. Could they feasibly land, say, Hoffman and Getzlaf for like 9M combined? Maybe. In most years Hoffman would definitely get 6.5M from someone, but nobody worth going to has cap space & the Oilers can use that.

I guess you also have to plan long term for that big Darnell Nurse extension.

They'd have a lot more than $12.5M to play with if RNH and Barrie walk, I'm assuming you included Klefbom's contract in that mix.

Also, the Nurse extension won't be that big. He's already at $5.6M so if he gets $8M which seems realistic maybe a bit more if he has another season like this one, that's only a $2.4M raise. Not a big worry at all.
The Puljujarvi raise might be bigger actually if he puts up a 25+ goal season.

 

[Anarchism]

Talbot got out of Edmonton just before Schwartz ruined him.

With the exception of Smith we do seem to have seen an initial spike in Goalie ability when they have come here and then an agonizing slide (both for us and themselves) until they turn into a __it pile.

 

[SK13]

They'd have a lot more than $12.5M to play with if RNH and Barrie walk, I'm assuming you included Klefbom's contract in that mix.

Also, the Nurse extension won't be that big. He's already at $5.6M so if he gets $8M which seems realistic maybe a bit more if he has another season like this one, that's only a $2.4M raise. Not a big worry at all.
The Puljujarvi raise might be bigger actually if he puts up a 25+ goal season.

Well, like I said. A minimum of 12.5 after house-keeping with Larsson, Yamamoto, etc.

 

[CupofOil]

Well, like I said. A minimum of 12.5 after house-keeping with Larsson, Yamamoto, etc.

More like around $20M, 12.5M isn't even in the ballpark of what will be left over after the Larsson and Yamamoto signings which should amount to no more than $7M.
It's like saying that RNH will sign for $3M minimum. Well yeah, technically I guess, but realistically it's $6M or more.

 

[SK13]

More like around $20M, 12.5M isn't even in the ballpark of what will be left over after the Larsson and Yamamoto signings which should amount to no more than $7M.
It's like saying that RNH will sign for $3M minimum. Well yeah, technically I guess, but realistically it's $6M or more.

It's a conservative number. 24M in cap space, 11M or so to re-sign Larsson, Yamamoto, Khaira and to pay a few depth players to get up to a 23 man roster. I don't think that math is off.

If they have considerably more that's great. The point is 12-13M is actually a lot of money right now. Dollar for dollar, much more than it would have it been 2 years ago.

 

[belair]

They'd have a lot more than $12.5M to play with if RNH and Barrie walk, I'm assuming you included Klefbom's contract in that mix.

Also, the Nurse extension won't be that big. He's already at $5.6M so if he gets $8M which seems realistic maybe a bit more if he has another season like this one, that's only a $2.4M raise. Not a big worry at all.
The Puljujarvi raise might be bigger actually if he puts up a 25+ goal season.

XXXXXX - McDavid (12.5) - Puljujarvi (1.175, RFA)
XXXXXX - Draisaitl (8.5) - XXXXXX
XXXXXX - XXXXXX - Archibald (1.5, UFA)
Neal (5.75) - XXXXXX - Kassian (3.2)
Turris (1.65, UFA)
McLeod (0.834)

Nurse (5.6, UFA) - XXXXXX
XXXXXX - Bear (2.0, RFA)
Lagesson (0.725, RFA) - Bouchard (0.863)
Klefbom (4.167)
Jones (0.85, RFA)
Russell (1.25, UFA)

XXXXXX
Koskinen (4.5, UFA)

Sekera (1.5)
Lucic (0.75)

(57.314)
24.286 in available cap space.

RFAs: Yamamoto (0.892), Kahun (0.975), Khaira (1.2), Benson (0.808)
Notable UFAs: Nugent-Hopkins (6.0), Barrie (3.75), Larsson (4.1), Kulikov (1.15), Ennis (1.0), Haas (0.915)

There's enough coming off of the cap next off-season to facilitate the Puljujarvi and Nurse extensions. I don't think that's going to be a significant issue.

Assuming Smith comes in at around $3-4m, we could be playing with around $16m without locking up either Barrie or Nuge. The problem is that you could use all that money and end up with a pretty rinky dink roster.