Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19

[Mortimer Snerd]

don't they usually resign the year of? before their contract is even up?

if they can wait. then that should work fine

I'm being told jets are under salary cap issues. as if we might have to lose wheeler

The Mason/Armia trade opened up enough space for this year.

If Wheeler is extended this year it still doesn't come into effect until his current contract expires. In that case we have cap issues for the 19/20 season.

 

[Peggy]

The Mason/Armia trade opened up enough space for this year.

If Wheeler is extended this year it still doesn't come into effect until his current contract expires. In that case we have cap issues for the 19/20 season.

it's really too bad we had to lose armia
I feel like having depth pieces like that is the details Stanley cup champs have
but I regress

 

[SLAYER]

Kuli has been fine, we needed a player on the left side and he's done a good job. His contract was a year too long, but Chevy wanted him and needed him so we went high on term and money which I'm fine with, he will be moved at the end of this year to clear money and Niku takes over.

Kuli was def fine when he played, just hate that he missed the most important part of the season. Back injuries suck, hope he is recovering well and will be ready for next season.

 

[tbcwpg]

The Mason/Armia trade opened up enough space for this year.

If Wheeler is extended this year it still doesn't come into effect until his current contract expires. In that case we have cap issues for the 19/20 season.

I can only imagine how much worse the cap would be if Scheifele and Ehlers didn't sign for what they did.

It'll be hard to move on from Wheeler if they choose to do that next season. How he plays this year will obviously affect how hard it will be, but if he still produces, it might be worthwhile to keep him if they go deep again next year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I can only imagine how much worse the cap would be if Scheifele and Ehlers didn't sign for what they did.

It'll be hard to move on from Wheeler if they choose to do that next season. How he plays this year will obviously affect how hard it will be, but if he still produces, it might be worthwhile to keep him if they go deep again next year.

I'm really torn with Wheeler. I don't want to let him walk. I don't want to sign him for too much for too long. I would rather trade him now but I really don't want that either. I'm a little concerned that he will decline when he starts losing his speed, but I don't expect him to fall off a cliff anytime soon. I hope he will sign for something like 4x7.

 

[tbcwpg]

I'm really torn with Wheeler. I don't want to let him walk. I don't want to sign him for too much for too long. I would rather trade him now but I really don't want that either. I'm a little concerned that he will decline when he starts losing his speed, but I don't expect him to fall off a cliff anytime soon. I hope he will sign for something like 4x7.

Yeah anything starting at 5 years would start to be a risk but they might be willing to add an extra year of term to get the AAV down. If that was the case, I'd be ok with 5 years.

 

[Maukkis]

The news about Panarin potentially going UFA is enormous.

There are very, very few players who are on his level offensively. This is another Tavares situation.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah anything starting at 5 years would start to be a risk but they might be willing to add an extra year of term to get the AAV down. If that was the case, I'd be ok with 5 years.

That has been said before. I'd rather go the opposite direction myself. I'm more worried about term than I am about AAV. If he is still good after 4 years, he can sign 1 year at a time until he is done, or ready to retire.

I would try for 3 years. I'd be OK stretching that to 4. IMO, anything past 4 is too risky. Unless he would take a big cut. I might go 8x3 but doubt he would.

 

[Gm0ney]

The news about Panarin potentially going UFA is enormous.

There are very, very few players who are on his level offensively. This is another Tavares situation.

He has a pretty short list of where he wants to play, I thought.

 

[Maukkis]

He has a pretty short list of where he wants to play, I thought.

True. I think he wants to play in one of the bigger markets/nicer places to live. Think NY, California etc.

 

[GJF]

I could very well see him sign with the Rangers

 

[surixon]

That has been said before. I'd rather go the opposite direction myself. I'm more worried about term than I am about AAV. If he is still good after 4 years, he can sign 1 year at a time until he is done, or ready to retire.

I would try for 3 years. I'd be OK stretching that to 4. IMO, anything past 4 is too risky. Unless he would take a big cut. I might go 8x3 but doubt he would.

That is my thought process. Three years may not seem like a long time but an awful lot can change in three seasons with a player, especially one in his mid 30's. Any longer then 3 and the risk is too great imo.

 

[Flair Hay]

I could very well see him sign with the Rangers

This seems like too good of a fit not to happen

 

[Howard Chuck]

True. I think he wants to play in one of the bigger markets/nicer places to live. Think NY, California etc.

Winnipeg is a nice place to live

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That is my thought process. Three years may not seem like a long time but an awful lot can change in three seasons with a player, especially one in his mid 30's. Any longer then 3 and the risk is too great imo.

We also have to remember to include his remaining year. So a 3 year extension is 4 years from now. He could be ready for pasture in 4 years.

I'm talking 4 years, 5 from now because I am assuming that is the best we could get. I would be willing to pay more to get the 3 year deal if he would take it. I'll find a way to squeeze out a little more cap space somewhere if necessary.

 

[surixon]

We also have to remember to include his remaining year. So a 3 year extension is 4 years from now. He could be ready for pasture in 4 years.

I'm talking 4 years, 5 from now because I am assuming that is the best we could get. I would be willing to pay more to get the 3 year deal if he would take it. I'll find a way to squeeze out a little more cap space somewhere if necessary.

Agreed. Sometimes you just need to know when to walk away. As I've shown in other posts he already isn't the same player at ES that he once was. He just now has the luxury of elite talent around him and that masks a lot of his decline.

 

[tbcwpg]

That has been said before. I'd rather go the opposite direction myself. I'm more worried about term than I am about AAV. If he is still good after 4 years, he can sign 1 year at a time until he is done, or ready to retire.

I would try for 3 years. I'd be OK stretching that to 4. IMO, anything past 4 is too risky. Unless he would take a big cut. I might go 8x3 but doubt he would.

I think cap dollars will be the biggest factor in the next few years. The cap crunch is coming in less than 3 years so if we can get as much space as possible I think that is the first concern over term.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think cap dollars will be the biggest factor in the next few years. The cap crunch is coming in less than 3 years so if we can get as much space as possible I think that is the first concern over term.

The cap crunch is here now, but if we are talking about a difference of 1 mil AAV, I will take a year shorter. That is 4x7 vs 5x6, for example. We are already a year beyond my comfort zone at 4. At 5 I would expect 2 years of dead weight. I would rather squeeze 1 mil more out of the budget than have to carry 6 mil more for that extra year. That might mean moving 1 lower level player or signing 2 RFA's for 500k less. I can do that.

In fact, I've already budgeted 7. If I could get him for 3x8 instead, I would do that squeezing to avoid the dead weight years at the end.

 

[bumblebeeman]

The cap crunch is here now, but if we are talking about a difference of 1 mil AAV, I will take a year shorter. That is 4x7 vs 5x6, for example. We are already a year beyond my comfort zone at 4. At 5 I would expect 2 years of dead weight. I would rather squeeze 1 mil more out of the budget than have to carry 6 mil more for that extra year. That might mean moving 1 lower level player or signing 2 RFA's for 500k less. I can do that.

In fact, I've already budgeted 7. If I could get him for 3x8 instead, I would do that squeezing to avoid the dead weight years at the end.

But do you think there will be a big cap crunch in 2023 or 2024? The cap might be up to 100m by then I don't know, but it seems to me that the biggest crunch will be going into the 2019 season, so saving a bit on Wheeler but giving him extra years might be the only way to keep him around. Is there something specific the Jets need 6 million more for in 2024? Obviously it's impossible to say, but imo it's worth the risk to put the best team on the ice as possible over the next few years. Even if they desperately need cap space in 2024 there are buy outs or trades they can do to get it

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But do you think there will be a big cap crunch in 2023 or 2024? The cap might be up to 100m by then I don't know, but it seems to me that the biggest crunch will be going into the 2019 season, so saving a bit on Wheeler but giving him extra years might be the only way to keep him around. Is there something specific the Jets need 6 million more for in 2024? Obviously it's impossible to say, but imo it's worth the risk to put the best team on the ice as possible over the next few years. Even if they desperately need cap space in 2024 there are buy outs or trades they can do to get it

The crunch has some ups and downs as young players come off ELC's and older contracts expire. I've projected out to '21. That is already pushing the crystal ball a bit hard. I did a very rough look out to '23. It looks like we stay pretty close to the cap. I don't think we will be able to carry 6 mil in dead weight. One or two maybe, but not six.

Just as a reminder of how hard it is to project, I did all my earlier projections with both Mason and Armia on the roster for at least 1 more year. But taking them out didn't alter the totals much. It mostly just changed the names.

Buyouts are kind of a desperation move. You reduce the impact of a bad contract but carry it longer. I'm talking about avoiding that necessity by making some relatively small moves to accommodate Wheeler now, while he is actually good. It may be a bit of an overpay but at least we are getting something in exchange.

 

[Maukkis]

There are a couple of ways to deal with veterans who have earned their huge paydays.

1) offer more money to keep the term down ('the Byfuglien')
2a) go for longer term to push the cap hit down ('the Oshie')
2b) go for longer term to push the cap hit down and to alter the rulebook down the line ('the Chicago Blackhawks')
3) let them walk ('the New York Islanders')
4) trade them to recoup some assets ('the Shattenkirk')

I reckon we might have to mix a lot of these together. We have already done so by going the road #1 with Buff, #3 with Frolik, #4 with Ladd... and somehow, I feel like Wheeler will fall under #2.

 

[Howard Chuck]

There are a couple of ways to deal with veterans who have earned their huge paydays.

1) offer more money to keep the term down ('the Byfuglien')
2a) go for longer term to push the cap hit down ('the Oshie')
2b) go for longer term to push the cap hit down and to alter the rulebook down the line ('the Chicago Blackhawks')
3) let them walk ('the New York Islanders')
4) trade them to recoup some assets ('the Shattenkirk')

I reckon we might have to mix a lot of these together. We have already done so by going the road #1 with Buff, #3 with Frolik, #4 with Ladd... and somehow, I feel like Wheeler will fall under #2.

Good rundown of the options. I love Wheeler as captain. I think he is largely responsible for the intangibles and the work ethic of the Jets. For that reason I would like to see option 1. Keep him as a leader for a just a few more years and pay him well for it (assuming we can afford it). Slide him down the lineup if required over time.

 

[mcpw]

There are a couple of ways to deal with veterans who have earned their huge paydays.

1) offer more money to keep the term down ('the Byfuglien')
2a) go for longer term to push the cap hit down ('the Oshie')
2b) go for longer term to push the cap hit down and to alter the rulebook down the line ('the Chicago Blackhawks')
3) let them walk ('the New York Islanders')
4) trade them to recoup some assets ('the Shattenkirk')

I reckon we might have to mix a lot of these together. We have already done so by going the road #1 with Buff, #3 with Frolik, #4 with Ladd... and somehow, I feel like Wheeler will fall under #2.

and the dream is 5) 'the Thornton': sign them for three years, then for three years again, then for three years again, then for one year again. Not everybody is like Thornton, though.
One can argue that Little might fall under 2a).

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

The crunch has some ups and downs as young players come off ELC's and older contracts expire. I've projected out to '21. That is already pushing the crystal ball a bit hard. I did a very rough look out to '23. It looks like we stay pretty close to the cap. I don't think we will be able to carry 6 mil in dead weight. One or two maybe, but not six.

Just as a reminder of how hard it is to project, I did all my earlier projections with both Mason and Armia on the roster for at least 1 more year. But taking them out didn't alter the totals much. It mostly just changed the names.

Buyouts are kind of a desperation move. You reduce the impact of a bad contract but carry it longer. I'm talking about avoiding that necessity by making some relatively small moves to accommodate Wheeler now, while he is actually good. It may be a bit of an overpay but at least we are getting something in exchange.

I could be wrong, but I seem to recall someone (Chipman?) saying that the Jets could afford to be a cap team for short periods when they felt they were positioned for a cup run and needed to add some assets, but that level of spending was not sustainable here. We are a small market with a very small arena. My feeling is they will do every thing they can to get the cup this year, but if they fall short, like well short... I think they have to move on from their older players. Signing Wheeler to an extension now would be a horrible mistake IMO. And this is assuming we have a happy, productive Trouba locked up long term. If it becomes clear that Trouba still wants out, I'm all for blowing it up right now, get some younger players in to complement our current young stars and hope that they can provide a winning core in a couple of years. And more picks. Outside of KV and Samberg, I'm not seeing a lot there to be excited about.

But as I said at the start, I could be wrong.

 

[bumblebeeman]

The crunch has some ups and downs as young players come off ELC's and older contracts expire. I've projected out to '21. That is already pushing the crystal ball a bit hard. I did a very rough look out to '23. It looks like we stay pretty close to the cap. I don't think we will be able to carry 6 mil in dead weight. One or two maybe, but not six.

Just as a reminder of how hard it is to project, I did all my earlier projections with both Mason and Armia on the roster for at least 1 more year. But taking them out didn't alter the totals much. It mostly just changed the names.

Buyouts are kind of a desperation move. You reduce the impact of a bad contract but carry it longer. I'm talking about avoiding that necessity by making some relatively small moves to accommodate Wheeler now, while he is actually good. It may be a bit of an overpay but at least we are getting something in exchange.

Well put