Speculation: Rumour, Trade, and Free Agent Speculation 2018-19

[Mortimer Snerd]

No way Detroit does that
The Ottawa package is fine, but we don't really need another RW
Tampa might decline the next one, but it's close - might work
I'd do the Philly one which makes me think they won't
We decline the last one

No way in hell Detroit does that.
The Ottawa package is not fine. Ottawa doesn't have that 1st.
The Tampa one is not close. Girardi is garbage.
The Philly one is interesting but the wrong team is adding. Maybe just leave out the add.
Agree we decline the last one.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Big defensive defenseman who can throw some hits and grind it out on the 3rd pair? I'm sure there are some GMs who would take him if Chevy shopped him around.

I'm sure there are. That is not the same as trading him for someone who could easily be sent down.

The cap saving is minimal and Chiarot is good depth. If that small cap saving becomes important, trade him for a pick.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Why do people think that Chiarot would be an attractive asset for anyone, if the sole reason for us trading a 1.4 AAV player is getting cap space?

I wouldn't mind trading Chiarot for the sole reason that he is overpaid by about 700K and means more opportunity for Niku. I think most people are thinking cap reason as with how close the Jets are to the cap having 1.4 million sitting in PB is too much.

Doubt the return is more than a mid round pick for Chiarot (at best replacing the Jets missing 3rd rounder this year).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn't mind trading Chiarot for the sole reason that he is overpaid by about 700K and means more opportunity for Niku. I think most people are thinking cap reason as with how close the Jets are to the cap having 1.4 million sitting in PB is too much.

Doubt the return is more than a mid round pick for Chiarot (at best replacing the Jets missing 3rd rounder this year).

Morrow cost us a 4th. If having him enables trading Chiarot for a 3rd we have an incremental gain.

A lot of people here liked Morrow quite a bit better than Chiarot. I suspect they are overrating Morrow based on a small sample. I think they are also underrating Chiarot because he is a popular whipping boy. He is good depth. He can play either side. And he is an adequate #6. But we can say the same about Morrow. So if we could get a 3rd and save a little cap space I'd do it. Sign another depth D for <700k and pocket the saving. Postma, or similar would do to sit in the PB.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Morrow cost us a 4th. If having him enables trading Chiarot for a 3rd we have an incremental gain.

A lot of people here liked Morrow quite a bit better than Chiarot. I suspect they are overrating Morrow based on a small sample. I think they are also underrating Chiarot because he is a popular whipping boy. He is good depth. He can play either side. And he is an adequate #6. But we can say the same about Morrow. So if we could get a 3rd and save a little cap space I'd do it. Sign another depth D for <700k and pocket the saving. Postma, or similar would do to sit in the PB.

He can play either side the way Scheifele can play D. Sure technically I'm sure he can do it, but it would be ugly as hell and hurts the team.

Chiarot is pretty overrated, IMO. If he is a #6 (ie an everyday player) I think your team is in some trouble on D. Jets already have 8 D, plus Niku in the AHL. Both Morrow and Chiarot are 7/8's at best, both are LD. They are redundant, IMO. Trading Chiarot buys us cap save and still leaves us 4 lines D, with a guy like Schilling as a #9. That's fine, IMO.

Not sure why I'm in this conversation though since it's academic. No chance Jets trade him for whatever reason.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He can play either side the way Scheifele can play D. Sure technically I'm sure he can do it, but it would be ugly as hell and hurts the team.

Chiarot is pretty overrated, IMO. If he is a #6 (ie an everyday player) I think your team is in some trouble on D. Jets already have 8 D, plus Niku in the AHL. Both Morrow and Chiarot are 7/8's at best, both are LD. They are redundant, IMO. Trading Chiarot buys us cap save and still leaves us 4 lines D, with a guy like Schilling as a #9. That's fine, IMO.

Not sure why I'm in this conversation though since it's academic. No chance Jets trade him for whatever reason.

I understand how you feel about Chiarot. I just disagree. The fact is that he has played both sides for us and has been about the same on both.

You are probably right that Jets don't trade him but things could change. If Niku forces them to keep him in the NHL Morrow and Chiarot become #8&9. We would have enough depth without him. My thought when they signed Morrow was that it opened the door to moving Chiarot.

 

[Duke749]

I understand how you feel about Chiarot. I just disagree. The fact is that he has played both sides for us and has been about the same on both.

You are probably right that Jets don't trade him but things could change. If Niku forces them to keep him in the NHL Morrow and Chiarot become #8&9. We would have enough depth without him. My thought when they signed Morrow was that it opened the door to moving Chiarot.

I wouldn’t say that’s a compliment though. He was pretty exposed in the Nashville and Vegas series’s.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn’t say that’s a compliment though. He was pretty exposed in the Nashville and Vegas series’s.

Everybody was exposed in the Vegas series.

All in all last year, I think he played well, even chipping in a little offense. If we did decide to move him, I think some people would be pleasantly surprised by the offers we would get.

Edit: The best return would come if we waited for some injuries and a team with a little desperation.

 

[Duke749]

Everybody was exposed in the Vegas series.

All in all last year, I think he played well, even chipping in a little offense. If we did decide to move him, I think some people would be pleasantly surprised by the offers we would get.

Edit: The best return would come if we waited for some injuries and a team with a little desperation.

Ummm, no. That’s just false. Chiarot was exposed far more then anyone because he simply couldn’t skate. At least everyone else could skate.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ummm, no. That’s just false. Chiarot was exposed far more then anyone because he simply couldn’t skate. At least everyone else could skate.

We'll just have to disagree here. That isn't what I saw. Though, to be honest - I fast forwarded over a lot of that Vegas series.

 

[Duke749]

We'll just have to disagree here. That isn't what I saw. Though, to be honest - I fast forwarded over a lot of that Vegas series.

That’s fair but I’m not sure what you could have seen that would suggest he was no worse then anyone else.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That’s fair but I’m not sure what you could have seen that would suggest he was no worse then anyone else.

If the whole team was at 50% (made up numbers, incoming) that means Buff was half of regular Buff. Chiarot was half of regular Chiarot. That means Buff only looks bad, Chiarot looks scary.

The whole team ran out of gas to some extent. They still outplayed VGK by many measures but they were goalied by MAF. Chiarot's influence is mainly going to be on GA. Jets didn't give up that many GA. They couldn't score on MAF. Chiarot isn't going to have a lot of influence on that. I don't see how Chiarot could have been so bad unless the Jets had given up quite a few more goals.

 

[PhilJets]

No trade

Lock and loaded

Unless its a landslide win for the team.

2 rookies will bang on the door.
Niku
Vesa

And those who had a taste already
Roslovic
Petan


Still have
Appleton
Samberg

Keep the picks for 2019. Replenish

Losing to Vegas should have hurt the Jets players pride that much.
They won't let up this year.
This might be the last go wtih Captain Wheeler also.

 

[garret9]

Some people don't like Corsi...

Jets with Chiarot on the ice over past three seasons:
control 49% of goals (94 GF, 98 GA)

Jets with Chiarot on the bench over same time frame:
control 53% of goals

Only defenders worse over that time frame to play significant minutes: Kulikov and Stuart.
Do the same experiment, but instead do a combined WOWY of all a defenders linemates with vs without instead of on-ice vs on-bench: only Stuart.

Now if you do like Corsi, you get almost the exact same results... (-4.1 relCorsi instead of -3.7 relGoals, and -2.9 relTM Corsi instead of -2.0 relTM Goals)

 

[HannuJ]

Some people don't like Corsi...

Jets with Chiarot on the ice over past three seasons:
control 49% of goals (94 GF, 98 GA)

Jets with Chiarot on the bench over same time frame:
control 53% of goals

Only defenders worse over that time frame to play significant minutes: Kulikov and Stuart.
Do the same experiment, but instead do a combined WOWY of all a defenders linemates with vs without instead of on-ice vs on-bench: only Stuart.

Now if you do like Corsi, you get almost the exact same results... (-4.1 relCorsi instead of -3.7 relGoals, and -2.9 relTM Corsi instead of -2.0 relTM Goals)

it's statistically significant. but is it "clinically" significant?
how does this actually translate on the ice?
and can you compare this to, for example, Buff or Myers' #s?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Some people don't like Corsi...

Jets with Chiarot on the ice over past three seasons:
control 49% of goals (94 GF, 98 GA)

Jets with Chiarot on the bench over same time frame:
control 53% of goals

Only defenders worse over that time frame to play significant minutes: Kulikov and Stuart.
Do the same experiment, but instead do a combined WOWY of all a defenders linemates with vs without instead of on-ice vs on-bench: only Stuart.

Now if you do like Corsi, you get almost the exact same results... (-4.1 relCorsi instead of -3.7 relGoals, and -2.9 relTM Corsi instead of -2.0 relTM Goals)

How does Chiarot do in last year's stats? I saw him as much improved.

49% with him on the ice isn't too bad, nearly break-even - until you see the 53% with him on the bench. But even that needs context. Who were his teammates on the ice at the same time as him and how do they fare in the same stats? One other question needs to be examined. How would a typical #6/7 Dman replacing him do in those same stats?

 

[Jimby]

I thought Chiarot had an improved year and his toughness is a nice asset. I suspect Chiarot's numbers are in part negatively affected because he was playing with Myers while Myers was going through his nightmare series of games giving the puck away nightly and it was usually ending up in the back of the Jets net.

How does Chiarot do in last year's stats? I saw him as much improved.

49% with him on the ice isn't too bad, nearly break-even - until you see the 53% with him on the bench. But even that needs context. Who were his teammates on the ice at the same time as him and how do they fare in the same stats? One other question needs to be examined. How would a typical #6/7 Dman replacing him do in those same stats?

 

[ps241]

I don’t mind Ben as a #7 or #8 when injuries hit but if he is in our line up day 1 that is a sign our D depth is not good.

He can’t defend guys entering the zone effectively enough. His gap control reminds me so much of Stu where he backs off 10 to 20 feet and concedes the entry uncontested way too often, the weird part is 90% of the fans don’t seem to notice or care????? He is just too easy to play against. Periodic physicality does not make you tough to play against, being able to defend well and move the puck makes you tough to play against.

Either way slotted properly I don’t mind Ben.

 

[garret9]

it's statistically significant. but is it "clinically" significant?
how does this actually translate on the ice?
and can you compare this to, for example, Buff or Myers' #s?

Buff has been one of the best, see the stats thread, in both goals and Corsi over same time frame.

Myers has good goals but bad Corsi impact. You can judge whether or not he’s been lucky or is an exception...

 

[Whileee]

Buff has been one of the best, see the stats thread, in both goals and Corsi over same time frame.

Myers has good goals but bad Corsi impact. You can judge whether or not he’s been lucky or is an exception...

Has Myers been lucky offensively or defensively? In other words, is the discrepancy between xGF and GF or xGA and GA, or both?

 

[JetsFan815]

Why do people think that Chiarot would be an attractive asset for anyone, if the sole reason for us trading a 1.4 AAV player is getting cap space?

He is big and hits hard. I am sure Dale Tallon would be salivating harder than Charlie Sheen at a strip club is Chevy made Chiarot available.

 

[10Ducky10]

Send him Myers too. They can send back Psysk and a 2nd.

 

[KingBogo]

I don’t mind Ben as a #7 or #8 when injuries hit but if he is in our line up day 1 that is a sign our D depth is not good.

He can’t defend guys entering the zone effectively enough. His gap control reminds me so much of Stu where he backs off 10 to 20 feet and concedes the entry uncontested way too often, the weird part is 90% of the fans don’t seem to notice or care????? He is just too easy to play against. Periodic physicality does not make you tough to play against, being able to defend well and move the puck makes you tough to play against.

Either way slotted properly I don’t mind Ben.

$1.4 is a bit pricey for a cap team to pay their #7 or 8 guy. Niku at 775,000 plus his $182,500 performance bonus saves you over a 1/2 million on the cap.

 

[garret9]

Has Myers been lucky offensively or defensively? In other words, is the discrepancy between xGF and GF or xGA and GA, or both?

Could be both? I’d have to check. (Walking right now, can’t check)

I remember people tried to argue that Russell was a Corsi exception as he consistently beat Corsi but it was random if it was Sv or Sh % inflation. If it’s a talent thing, you’d expect it to be consistent.

Could be mix of talent and lucky too.

 

[HannuJ]

$1.4 is a bit pricey for a cap team to pay their #7 or 8 guy. Niku at 775,000 plus his $182,500 performance bonus saves you over a 1/2 million on the cap.

you don't keep Niku in the box.
you have him playing somewhere. anywhere.