Rumour, Trade and Free Agent Discussion 2020/21 - Part III

[Jack722]

Overall, the CSW line has been the Jets' best over the past 3 seasons. ESW has also been a very good line, but then you have Connor with Laine, which hasn't worked well.

I fear that a lot of that best-ness came in the first year of that three-year period, without many flashes of it over the latter two. Here's hoping they can somehow get back to that, though.

 

[Whileee]

My guess is what makes this possible is your not taking Dobson. I like Nelson though but I think the idea too is they like him. Wilde would be a good addition I think

I think Wilde might be a risky boom-or-bust type. Dobson has high potential, but I wonder if he'll put it all together. Nelson is fine, but he can put half the NHL on a no-trade list, so I have my doubts about him waiving for Winnipeg, even though he's from Warroad.

Overall, I just don't see this combination as having enough certain upside to be worth Laine.

 

[Whileee]

I fear that a lot of that best-ness came in the first year of that three-year period, without many flashes of it over the latter two. Here's hoping they can somehow get back to that, though.

Well, when they were put back together late last season, they were easily the best line the Jets had all season.

 

[jamiebez]

No idea why you make that trade for Hawryluk. None.

Dumba trade is probably about right, IMO.

Talk here in Ottawa is that he might not even get qualified... kinda depends on if they want to make a move for Matt Murray, or otherwise act as a salary-cap dump team for anyone.

It would not be the craziest thing to get him as 4th line depth.

edit: agree with you in that I wouldn't give up anything to get him, though

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

My guess is what makes this possible is your not taking Dobson. I like Nelson though but I think the idea too is they like him. Wilde would be a good addition I think

your probably right...Dobson is a stud prospect. I am a fan personally.

I do think the Isles, Devils, Yotes and maybe Anaheim are the teams with the assets to pull of a fair value Laine trade. Actually that is more to choose from than I thought possible. IF Petro signs with us it really could set up a scenario where Laine can be dealt and the defence and centre positions are filled with quality and quantity.

What is your impression of Zacha and Hischier from Jersey.

Also I love your posts, they are really smart...kind of excited you quoted me...not to be a gushing fanboy by any means....lol.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Philly. NYI and Carolina are all teams that i could see as a fit for Laine.

By that i mean, gets us the best return cuz if im trading the guy who is our star around the league.. The guy kids in Arizona have heard of.. I want an overpay.. Those 3 teams all have what i would Want... Young D. Young Centers and prospects and draft picks.

NYI.. Pulock Beauvilier is a nice start.. They gotta add tho still.

Sanheim and Farabee and possibly Konecny is a nice start.

Pesce Necas Frost is a good start.

I'm not trading the superstar known around the world for just magic beans thats for sure

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maurice has limitations, lack any coach. But we're fooling ourselves if we think that a new coach will be the answer for this team. This team had a terrible D last year and if they don't fix that they aren't going to succeed regardless of who's behind the bench.

Trading Laine is purely about contract. If they can't get him on a deal that's not way outside their salary structure, they don't have much choice but to trade him. If they were very thin up front in scoring, then you might pay a premium for a winger, but with Connor as a 40 goal scorer and Ehlers with potential to be a consistent 30 goal scorer, investing 30-40% more cap in Laine than in other top forwards is questionable.

Somewhat agree about the coach. The spectrum of coaches is pretty narrow. They are all much alike. (I wonder if that shows they know something? )

There might be a thing about some coaches being better suited to some teams. Maurice does appear to want to mold the team to his vision rather than coaching them to do what they do best. So he might be better suited to a roster that matches his vision. But changing coaches is unlikely to make any big difference.

They can't pay Laine bigger money than the other forwards - unless and until he shows he is worthy of it. The number for a contract signed this year might be quite different from the number signed a year from now.

I don't know how people can even be thinking about trading him now for contract reasons. Complete mystery to me. We don't know what he will ask for and we don't know what he will be worth. The only way I can justify trading him at this time is if it fixes our roster, short and longer term.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Connor has defensive limitations but scores over 40 and is a point-a-game player, and his cap hit is a shade over $7M. If Laine is mostly a scorer, then do you spend an extra 30-40% on his cap hit? That's the big question.

That depends on how he develops. He is already way ahead of Connor in his all around game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

With word that Vancouver is active, would there be any options there in a Laine trade?
They don’t have a 1st this year, but they have Interesting players and prospects
What’s Horvat’s value?
Jett Woo is an RHD prospect, any idea about his play?

I'm not sure about Woo. He scored very well in D+1, then dropped off quite a bit in D+2. I think he was tasked with a more defensive role, but I don't know that for certain. If I am correct, he is a pretty good 2 way D prospect. I'd like to hear from @Daximus on that. RHS, from Wpg and his name is Jett, 2 development years in the bag already, could be interesting.

Horvat was Vcr 1C until Pettersson arrived. Not tall, but packs some weight. Has broken 20 G 4 straight years, even a couple with fewer games. 3 more years at 5.5, only 3.5 actual money this year. I'd love to get him to play with Laine.

I don't see a replacement 2C in the Vcr system anywhere. Gaudette maybe? And he is the team captain. I'd be surprised if we could pry him out of Vcr.

I wonder if Gaudette would be worth pursuing? And Woo.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean they got to land centres one way or another.
They are desperate to address that issue.

They won’t trade their top trade assets for more wingers

Mtl doesn't need RHD or PP QB, but the value might be right for Domi. If Petry walks or Weber declines (both will happen before long), then they need RHD and PP QB. Makes more sense than trading either of them to us.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess the point is, they draft, develop and sign - the challenge with this model is if they are able to draft a balanced line up, they then need to sign them long term. If a pce (ie; Troubla) decides they want out, it creates a hole that is difficult for this organization to fill -
Unless they have have a bullpen of talent coming up through the system that can step in. That means, don't trade away your 1st round picks and draft well.

I don't want this to be viewed as a pessimistic approach - I'm simply trying to be realistic in our ability to use the open market based on some of the disadvantages this market has.

The shortfall up to now is on D - some of it out of our control (Buff) and some if it came down to too much change over the course of one year (Myers, Chia exit). The complete dismantling of our D exposed our offense - and the loss of Little exposed our depth at C.
I'd think there were hopes that Rosie was going to be our 2C at some point - not sure that will ever happen despite his success with the Moose.

The combination of all this left us in a mess. Chalk it up to bad luck and bad timing - we lose Buff after moving our physical players off the blue line and then Little is taken out by a freak injury. If we are dealing with this type of chaos every season, yes, we will be a perpetual 1st round elimination team.

If Chevy was really that committed to draft & develop, he should have accumulated more high picks. Even the middle picks should not have been traded away so easily.

We will be a perpetual 1st rd eliminated team if all we do is draft and develop and don't drop back down. Doesn't need the chaos to continue. We won't get the players we need in the 15-20 range.

Maybe he would now concede that. Maybe he is going to start doing that now and we can look forward to contending in 7-8 years with new top 6 C's, new goalie and new top 4 D. Might as well trade everybody who can return a 1st in this year's or the next 2 year's drafts. Start over.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure, they have to make moves to fit him under the cap, but I think it’s Nylander instead of Marner that gets moved.

Freddy is likely gone too, so it depends who they sign as their goalie, and at what price. They might be closer than we think fitting it all together.

AP will get $9+M to move, otherwise, he could likely stay in St Louis for about $8M and probably would. A team will have to come forward with that sort of offer, and I think the Leafs try very hard. I also think the Golden Knights are big time players. They want to win.

Yeah, I was being sarcastic with Marner. But it will likely take more than just Nylander.

I said at the time Nylander was signed that the contract was structured to be traded. Covid just makes that structure all the more significant. If they want to sign Pies, I think Nylander has to go and also either Johnsson or Kerfoot. Then they need 2 replacement F's for no more than about 3 mil in combined cap hit and they can do it. They also need several other low cost players. Their own RFA's should just about do it.

Still a very top heavy roster but at least better balanced between front and back.

 

[LowLefty]

If Chevy was really that committed to draft & develop, he should have accumulated more high picks. Even the middle picks should not have been traded away so easily.

We will be a perpetual 1st rd eliminated team if all we do is draft and develop and don't drop back down. Doesn't need the chaos to continue. We won't get the players we need in the 15-20 range.

Maybe he would now concede that. Maybe he is going to start doing that now and we can look forward to contending in 7-8 years with new top 6 C's, new goalie and new top 4 D. Might as well trade everybody who can return a 1st in this year's or the next 2 year's drafts. Start over.

Actually, in reply to the bold, we did do more that D&D and it caused us to 2 x 1st round picks - they may pick their spots on when to pull the trigger but they'll need to be well developed before they do it.
We'll see what happens over the summer - the only trades I see them making are to move players that are perceived contract issues, not interested in playing here long term, or are a required move in order to shore up another area.
I don't see them having the same access to the FA market and I don't see them adding mid to high end talent unless they are signed.
You can build a contender via D&D, but you need to be good at it, you need to be patient, and you need a little good luck (and less bad luck).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

i think id take back stastny. 1 year at 6.5m. then draft best C avail at 10. they'll probably have to pay to get rid of him. wonder what they do w/ lehner? they might have move stastny to sign lehner.

I've been thinking that Stastny did us a favour by going the the F*** Vegas's because he gave them only 1 good year for a 3 year contract (and I think I predicted that at the time). But if F*** Vegas is willing to give us a good deal to take him back for only 1 year, I'd be quite willing to give it another shot.

How about this?
We give them Rosie + #40 (they don't have a 2nd this year)
for
Stastny (1 mil retained, just to rub it in a bit) and Cody Glass.

Stastny's actual salary this year is only 5.5 to begin with.

 

[Daximus]

How about Dobson, Wilde and Nelson?

and take some cap back.

Then sign Petro.

Can't see the Isles doing that they barely have enough to resign Barzal let alone the rest of their defence.

 

[Daximus]

I've been thinking that Stastny did us a favour by going the the F*** Vegas's because he gave them only 1 good year for a 3 year contract (and I think I predicted that at the time). But if F*** Vegas is willing to give us a good deal to take him back for only 1 year, I'd be quite willing to give it another shot.

How about this?
We give them Rosie + #40 (they don't have a 2nd this year)
for
Stastny (1 mil retained, just to rub it in a bit) and Cody Glass.

Stastny's actual salary this year is only 5.5 to begin with.

I feel like they aren't giving us anything. They go out of their way to make sure we don't get better.

 

[Daximus]

Yeah, I was being sarcastic with Marner. But it will likely take more than just Nylander.

I said at the time Nylander was signed that the contract was structured to be traded. Covid just makes that structure all the more significant. If they want to sign Pies, I think Nylander has to go and also either Johnsson or Kerfoot. Then they need 2 replacement F's for no more than about 3 mil in combined cap hit and they can do it. They also need several other low cost players. Their own RFA's should just about do it.

Still a very top heavy roster but at least better balanced between front and back.

I think they move Johnsons and Nylander. They arent hurting money wise and those two players at what they will cost will be very attractive trade bait.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually, in reply to the bold, we did do more that D&D and it caused us to 2 x 1st round picks - they may pick their spots on when to pull the trigger but they'll need to be well developed before they do it.
We'll see what happens over the summer - the only trades I see them making are to move players that are perceived contract issues, not interested in playing here long term, or are a required move in order to shore up another area.
I don't see them having the same access to the FA market and I don't see them adding mid to high end talent unless they are signed.
You can build a contender via D&D, but you need to be good at it, you need to be patient, and you need a little good luck (and less bad luck).

Yes, but I stand by the bolded part. Even if we spend our picks more carefully in the future, we won't get the high end players we will need if we don't drop down.

Top D men are often drafted later so we could build a D corps. The same goes for goal. But top 6 F's mostly come from the top 15, or even 10 spots.

Going about it patiently means first Wheeler, then Scheifele and Helle, then JMo, Ehlers, Connor and finally Laine have all either left or aged out. And we are still in the mushy middle. And we are already down a top 6 C and a 1st pair D. All of those will need to be replaced. Picking from 17-25.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I feel like they aren't giving us anything. They go out of their way to make sure we don't get better.

You're probably right. I'm just fantasizing a little payback.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think they move Johnsons and Nylander. They arent hurting money wise and those two players at what they will cost will be very attractive trade bait.

Yup, though Kerfoot is another possibility.

My point has just been that Nylander alone is not enough. Whoever they move needs to be replaced. And they have several other players to sign.

I could see them going to all of that trouble though with how badly and how long they have needed a RHD solution. But they can't just go out and sign him with no reference to the cap either.

 

[LowLefty]

Yes, but I stand by the bolded part. Even if we spend our picks more carefully in the future, we won't get the high end players we will need if we don't drop down.

Top D men are often drafted later so we could build a D corps. The same goes for goal. But top 6 F's mostly come from the top 15, or even 10 spots.

Going about it patiently means first Wheeler, then Scheifele and Helle, then JMo, Ehlers, Connor and finally Laine have all either left or aged out. And we are still in the mushy middle. And we are already down a top 6 C and a 1st pair D. All of those will need to be replaced. Picking from 17-25.

All these things are true - especially the mushy middle.
But I think bad luck had something to do with our mush - and maybe a bad decision here and there.
We lost a first round pick on a bad deadline deal and we lost a couple of good players on bad luck (Buff / Little).
If those things happen, all bets are off.

 

[BatVader]

what’s Nylander trade value?
‘21 1st + ????

Would rather keep #10 to address which ever need we didn’t fix by trading Laine.

 

[snowkiddin]

I would be game to get Nylander as our 2C, but he would cost more then 10th OA and Ves.......Ves doesn’t hold much value overall IMO. Heinola or Samberg would likely be the ask plus. Nylander would be the dynamic 2C we need, he’s on a decent contract and is solid defensively.

I would not even consider that.

 

[snowkiddin]

There is speculation that the Isles want a goal scorer. I think Laine fits the bill. I also wonder if we do them a "favor" and take some salary from them. Here me out before you shout me down lol

Laine to the Isles

for
Pulock + Beauvillier + Ladd + Wahlstrom and add ons. I just don't know what would be worth it to take on Ladds contract

Those better be enticing add-ons because that doesn’t start the conversation for me.

 

[DRW204]

Who gets more between $$$ barzal and Laine?

Who deserves more?