Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | The Road to the Draft June 28th & 29th Part Deux

[Canovin]

In reality the crowd that's always pushing for the Oilers to never spend big and go for cheaper options ... I get the logic, but it never works for us.

When has that ever worked for us? When have we gone cheap or gone with "hopes and wishes" on a player and had it work out well for us?

There's two times we "spent big" in the last 20 years in terms of giving up futures for a help now player that was actually a player most fans (not just Oiler fans) would say "yes that is a tangible upgrade, that's a legit good player".

The first is Dwayne Roloson in 2006. That took us to game 7 of the Cup Final.

The second is Ekholm, which may have taken us to the Cup Final this year if our goaltending and dumb coaching didn't sabotage things.

So sure, when people say "well don't spend on Hellebuyck or Saros, just go cheap" ... it never works for us. Going cheap or not getting someone established always blows up in our face.

You get what you pay for. Maybe other teams can do crazy shit like pulling an Aiden Hill out of their ass and riding that to a Cup, but that's because their pro scouting and management smarts are just way beyond what we have here. We can't be hoping for things like that to happen here, it never does.

I agree. You get what you pay for. First time in a long time we trade our 1st and what do you know, we got Ekholm.

Saros over Hellebuyck. The way he plays is pleasing to the eyes

Pro Scout meetings are currently ongoing right now. Seems like there is a real sense of urgency there since our window is only 2-3 years

Thanks Tony

 

[McTonyBrar]

I agree. You get what you pay for. First time in a long time we trade our 1st and what do you know, we got Ekholm.

Saros over Hellebuyck. The way he plays is pleasing to the eyes


Thanks Tony

Lol I'm not Tony

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Vegas rolled a regular season without their #1 goaltender and 5 tenders only 1 of which had a sub .915 save% (Quick). Their elite giant defense corp and efficient own zone defending then insulated a third string goaltender who got hot and won a Cup. In NHL playoffs, teams can win with rare, elite pedigree goaltending (Tampa) or a wide swath of good goaltenders who get nuclear hot and carry a team (Bob this current year's example). The challenge is the model of wide range of average goaltenders going nuclear is impossible to predict; highly volatile; and not necessarily repeatable.

Vegas shows a way forward for the Oilers. Build a true elite, ideally large defense corp and install and execute strong own zone defending systems which can insulate average goaltending. The Oilers are close to being a true elite Cup contending team. However they need a top 4 RD upgrade to create a formidable backbone defending corp. and upgrade their system structure.

Ekholm - Bouchard
Nurse - Stud Top 4 RD (Parayko, Pesce type)

It's fool's gold to think Campbell is a moveable asset. Their goaltending is Skinner Campbell and hope. Hope there is no regression in Skinner's game and that Campbell will reset to reasonable career performance. Insulate this weakness and this team is good enough for a Cup run.

 

[belair]

In reality the crowd that's always pushing for the Oilers to never spend big and go for cheaper options ... I get the logic, but it never works for us.

When has that ever worked for us? When have we gone cheap or gone with "hopes and wishes" on a player and had it work out well for us?

There's two times we "spent big" in the last 20 years in terms of giving up futures for a help now player that was actually a player most fans (not just Oiler fans) would say "yes that is a tangible upgrade, that's a legit good player".

The first is Dwayne Roloson in 2006. That took us to game 7 of the Cup Final.

The second is Ekholm, which may have taken us to the Cup Final this year if our goaltending and dumb coaching didn't sabotage things.

So sure, when people say "well don't spend on Hellebuyck or Saros, just go cheap" ... it never works for us. Going cheap and not getting someone established always blows up in our face.

You get what you pay for. Maybe other teams can do crazy shit like pulling an Aiden Hill out of their ass and riding that to a Cup, but that's because their pro scouting and management smarts are just way beyond what we have here. We can't be hoping for things like that to happen here, it never does.

Last summer through to the deadline. Most posters here were immediately reactive when this team moved slowly out of the gate and were prepared to all-in on any option that was rumored to be available at the time. The popular one was Chychrun.

If they had made an early all-in move in the off-season or were reactive after their slow start, the Oilers wouldn't have gotten Ekholm. They would've paid a higher price for a poorer fit in a weaker market.

The Oilers didn't go cheap on goaltending they went big on Jack Campbell who had a very strong trajectory as a solid 40+ game starting goaltender. They also had a strong bet in an internally developed Skinner.

The majority of this league is trending towards tandem starters. The days of 70 start goalies are long gone. It's not worth it in terms of assets and cap cost to go out and try to acquire them.

 

[Soundwave]

I like how you play the "if we did this, this would happen" game when it comes to spending big assets on a goalie, but refuse to entertain the same logic the other way. You seem to think acquiring one of the top goalies in the league is going to win the team a championship, when three of the last 4 Cup winners had nothing of the sort.


This just isn't true. They put Campbell in there and would have failed miserably without Skinner stepping up. You just watched it happen.

When has going cheap or "lets bet on the unproven guy" ever worked out great for us?

When you have management as good as Vegas maybe you do "get lucky" because well run organizations seem to "get lucky" a lot. That doesn't happen for us. Maybe because for example we have someone like Schwartz running our goaltending division and he pushed hard to sign Campbell (and then reccomended to not start him in the playoffs apparently, lol), Vegas has Sean Burke who's widely considered one of the smart goaltending people in the NHL for a long time now. He suggested Aiden Hill.

This whole "lets just not pay too much and hope it works out" shit never works for the Oilers. Never.

The two times we paid up in futures, we got Dwayne Roloson and Ekholm. And it was better than any of our "buy low" bets.

 

[McAsuno]

I'm not sure why the Oilers are still hoarding prospects when a 1st got us Ekholm and he did more for us than Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault etc did in the past 4 years.

Agreed. Players like Broberg will take YEARS to pan out. If only we were able to take Matt Boldy instead of him. Move out Broberg and bring in players that will actually contribute and help rather than wait for Broberg to pan out by year who knows how long.

Getting outplayed by Kulak and not even being able to take Desharnais spot in the playoffs is just flat out embarrassing for a player who got heavily sheltered by the coaches.

 

[McTonyBrar]

Agreed. Players like Broberg will take YEARS to pan out. If only we were able to take Matt Boldy instead of him. Move out Broberg and bring in players that will actually contribute and help rather than wait for Broberg to pan out by year who knows how long.

Getting outplayed by Kulak and not even being able to take Desharnais spot in the playoffs is just flat out embarrassing for a player who got heavily sheltered by the coaches.

Broberg only just turned 21 and took a bit of a step last season but okay..

 

[Canovin]

Lol I'm not Tony

Looks like yam fries you're eating here

 

[Messrules11]

Schwartz has to go. All the goalie juggling over the years and we still employ this schmuck.

 

[Staghorn]

I'm not sure why the Oilers are still hoarding prospects when a 1st got us Ekholm and he did more for us than Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault etc did in the past 4 years.

I am not sure any of Broberg Holloway or Borgeault will even be NHL players... they haven't exactly exploded with their NHL opportunities and aren't doing much in the AHL either... Likely valued that way by other teams too - none are kicking down the door.

This team can't really worry about prospects. If prospect capital gets you an Ekholm, then do it again if it fits. THE CUP Window only has a few more years anyways.

 

[Beerfish]

A smart gm would have dumped Yamo last year. you know instead of giving him a stupid 2 year contract for more than he is worth.

Every single year Yamo is:

Legit looks really good 5 games a year.
Okay about 15-20 games a year,
A sheer and utter non entity that disappears for 45 games a year.

His year looks like

10 games 2 points
5 games 5 goals and 8 points
20 games 1 goal
5 games 4 goals
25 games no goals

All this playing on the top two lines half of the time or more.

Not a great skater
Not a sniper
Not a great play maker
Not a great consistent pest
Not a great defensive player
Too small

He does nothing really well at the NHL level and if you are 5'7" you have to do something really well.

 

[Soundwave]

Last summer through to the deadline. Most posters here were immediately reactive when this team moved slowly out of the gate and were prepared to all-in on any option that was rumored to be available at the time. The popular one was Chychrun.

If they had made an early all-in move in the off-season or were reactive after their slow start, the Oilers wouldn't have gotten Ekholm. They would've paid a higher price for a poorer fit in a weaker market.

The Oilers didn't go cheap on goaltending they went big on Jack Campbell who had a very strong trajectory as a solid 40+ game starting goaltender. They also had a strong bet in an internally developed Skinner.

The majority of this league is trending towards tandem starters. The days of 70 start goalies are long gone. It's not worth it in terms of assets and cap cost to go out and try to acquire them.

Just because you say "we have a tandem" doesn't mean you have a good one. Our "tandem" had the worst starter in the regular season, and then our "new starter" had the worst stats of any goalie through 2 rounds in the playoffs. That's our tandem.

And basically we're told "well just hope it gets better with the same 2 guys".

Like, lol. Maybe we didn't go cheap on goaltending, but we spent a lot of money on an unproven guy with clear red flags in his game.

I'd rather spend have spent multiple picks and Broberg to get a Saros than be in the situation we are in now. We quite possibly blew a trip to the Cup Finals this year because we bet on this tandem. How many draft picks cover up that?

 

[belair]

I'm not sure why the Oilers are still hoarding prospects when a 1st got us Ekholm and he did more for us than Broberg, Holloway, Bourgault etc did in the past 4 years.

Because Ekholm was a calculated add that will be here for three more runs at a Cup. The players you add need to fit your long-term payroll structure.

Prospects are the team's currency to sustain a competitive team. It's how rosters grow and improve.

 

[McAsuno]

Broberg only just turned 21 and took a bit of a step last season but okay..

I just don't see his upside, that's just my personal opinion.
The kid gained 10+ pounds and his skating which was his main strength looked super off and the lack of bite he has in his game constantly got him outmuscled by the opponents and barely could handle defending a forecheck.

I know there's some hopes of him following Klefbom's path of succeeding, but I don't see it. I'd rather move him now where his value is still rather great than wait for his value to drop to a Puljujarvi/Yakupov type of return.

 

[McDNicks17]

This is such a tired logic. McDavid and Draisaitl are not the only productive forwards in the NHL and they're also not the only players capable of elevating a player's expected production.

If a $1m could replace him, they had four years to do it. Why didn't they?

Yamamoto has been on the ice for 20 goals for at 5v5 without McDrai over the past three seasons. Derek Ryan was on the ice for 31 goals for at 5v5 away from McDrai this season.

He's a dime a dozen player being propped up by guys with four times his points.

Holland is an old school GM. He loves to bet on "draft pedigree". You'll see smart GMs in the league that move on from their struggling young players early while they still have value.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I am not sure any of Broberg Holloway or Borgeault will even be NHL players... they haven't exactly exploded with their NHL opportunities and aren't doing much in the AHL either... Likely valued that way by other teams too - none are kicking down the door.

This team can't really worry about prospects. If prospect capital gets you an Ekholm, then do it again if it fits. THE CUP Window only has a few more years anyways.

What nonsense is this? Please make a bet with me on this. I beg you. All 3 will be NHL players and you'll end up looking very dumb

 

[Staghorn]

Schwartz has to go. All the goalie juggling over the years and we still employ this schmuck.

We spend all this time on here talking about players and trades... when really the ORGANIZATION being on the cheap and allowing the Schwartz's to keep being terrible and having a thin scouting dept and tiny front office is another huge negative. Organization showing its true colors there - cheap out and cut corners. Results?? hmmmm...

 

[GOilers88]

When has going cheap or "lets bet on the unproven guy" ever worked out great for us?

When you have management as good as Vegas maybe you do "get lucky" because well run organizations seem to "get lucky" a lot. That doesn't happen for us. Maybe because for example we have someone like Schwartz running our goaltending division and he pushed hard to sign Campbell (and then reccomended to not start him in the playoffs apparently, lol), Vegas has Sean Burke who's widely considered one of the smart goaltending people in the NHL for a long time now. He suggested Aiden Hill.

This whole "lets just not pay too much and hope it works out" shit never works for the Oilers. Never.

The two times we paid up in futures, we got Dwayne Roloson and Ekholm. And it was better than any of our "buy low" bets.

I’m not saying don’t pay to improve. I’m saying spending all the assets to move Campbell and bring in one of the elite goalies in the league seems like a worse idea than spending those same assets to bolster the defense based on 3 of the past 4 cup winning teams.

 

[Soundwave]

Yamamoto has been on the ice for 20 goals for at 5v5 without McDrai over the past three seasons. Derek Ryan was on the ice for 31 goals for at 5v5 away from McDrai this season.

He's a dime a dozen player being propped up by guys with four times his points.

Holland is an old school GM. He loves to bet on "draft pedigree". You'll see smart GMs in the league that move on from their struggling young players early while they still have value.

Puljujarvi and Yamamoto era summed up here in gif form

Smart management groups cash out on players like this early when they still have some value. We'll have basically nothing to show for these two 1st round picks.

 

[Mr Kot]

Lol I'm not Tony

whatever you say, tony

 

[McAsuno]

Puljujarvi and Yamamoto era summed up here in gif form

Smart management groups cash out on players like this early when they still have some value. We'll have basically nothing to show for these two 1st round picks.

Same thing for Broberg too.

 

[CupofOil]

My guess he adds RW depth and bottom tier D in off-season, then adds a more substantial defensive player at the deadline.

We can outscore our way to the playoffs, but we’ll need that deadline addition to be important for a longer playoff run.

This is the correct answer and probably the smart move tbh.

The focus of this offseason should be locking up the RFAs and moving Yamamoto and probably Foegele's contract out. I say Foegele because I think they need to give Holloway a shot and I believe he can replace what Foegele brings (with a more consistent effort) for a fraction of the price and with upside for more.

 

[Canovin]

Because Ekholm was a calculated add that will be here for three more runs at a Cup. The players you add need to fit your long-term payroll structure.

Prospects are the team's currency to sustain a competitive team. It's how rosters grow and improve.

You can trade Holloway, Bourgault , or Broberg for another Ekholm and it'll be a calculated add. Just don't be dumb and dump the prospects for nothing. When you win a cup, it'll sustain itself, UFAs will come and prospects will want to sign here

 

[Soundwave]

I’m not saying don’t pay to improve. I’m saying spending all the assets to move Campbell and bring in one of the elite goalies in the league seems like a worse idea than spending those same assets to bolster the defense based on 3 of the past 4 cup winning teams.

I just feel like if there's an option

A) Just do the obvious thing (like LA will probably get Hellebuyck this summer, Vancouver added Luongo and went from a perrenial playoff bust to at least in the Cup Finals game 7, Lowe adding a legit goalie like Roloson to the 2006 team, etc. etc.) even if its expensive.

or

B) Try and be the smartest person in the room and do something off the wall that maybe worked out for a top end management group that does 49/50 things well because its cheaper

We have a tendency to chose option B and then watch it blow up in our face.

 

[Vagabond]

Yamo is tradable for at least a 3rd or 4th round pick to dump salary. Some teams need to make the cap floor.

Ceci has a very good buyout. After his buyout, his cap hit this season is just over 80k. Then just over 1m for the next 3 seasons. That's if they cannot trade him and there's an absolute upgrade.

Cody Ceci Buyout Results - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Cody Ceci buyout results and details including cost calculations, savings and final cap hit

www.capfriendly.com

They can now bridge Bouchard. Sign Kostin, McLeod, Lavoie and Bjugstad.

Have room to sign a vet forward and keep some space for the deadline. All while giving Kostin a bigger role. Give Holloway 3rd line duty.