Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Rainman Edition "I'm an Excellent Driver" Read OP and Watch Video For Educational Purposes

[Frank the Tank]

So for some reason Logan Cooley signed with the Yotes, I honestly thought he was going to wait them out.

Again, to how pathetic the Yotes TRULY are as a franchise.

Cooley will play in front of less than half the crowd at home in Arizona as he did in College. Pathetic.

The Big 10 is being rocked with hazing violations, including University of Minnesota football. The ADs at each school eventually will be expanding their investigations into other prominent sports programs. Maybe Cooley wants out before the crap hits the fan.

 

[KMart27]

Whats that 3 cases that went to arbitration this summer?

Has there even been 3 total cases that went to arbitration in the past 5 years lol?

4 if you include swayman

Have to submit the numbers a couple days before the hearing so they still have time to avoid it. Looking at how far apart they each are, pretty likely the hearings will happen.

 

[McDoused]

Have to submit the numbers a couple days before the hearing so they still have time to avoid it. Looking at how far apart they each are, pretty likely the hearings will happen.

I imagine that neither of those numbers are actual offers, just what they hope for.

Like I could see Edmonton have a 1.25M number for McLeod who has 2.5M just to hope that they split the cost and land somewhere in the middle at 1.875.

 

[duul]

Again, McLeod already took a cut last year to make things work with promises of getting 'his' this year. Fool me once as they say.

He's going to get 2.25 minimum from an arbiter as he should. I don't even like the player I'd prefer if we let him walk, but he deserves to get paid. It's not his fault Holland has fumbled with the cap since its implementation and we chose to hire him.

Anyway, let's start working out a battle plan for McLeod and Bouchard being signed and needing to move someone out for space. Is it Foegele, Kulak, or Ceci? Miraculous Campbell deal?

 

[Anarchism]

So for some reason Logan Cooley signed with the Yotes, I honestly thought he was going to wait them out.

Again, to how pathetic the Yotes TRULY are as a franchise.

Cooley will play in front of less than half the crowd at home in Arizona as he did in College. Pathetic.

With between 21-22 mil in LTIR. maybe as much as 13 mil playing below the cap floor.

 

[94 Oil Drops]

Again, McLeod already took a cut last year to make things work with promises of getting 'his' this year. Fool me once as they say.

He's going to get 2.25 minimum from an arbiter as he should. I don't even like the player I'd prefer if we let him walk, but he deserves to get paid. It's not his fault Holland has fumbled with the cap since its implementation and we chose to hire him.

Anyway, let's start working out a battle plan for McLeod and Bouchard being signed and needing to move someone out for space. Is it Foegele, Kulak, or Ceci? Miraculous Campbell deal?

Then who plays in our bottom 6?

 

[McDoused]

Again, McLeod already took a cut last year to make things work with promises of getting 'his' this year. Fool me once as they say.

He's going to get 2.25 minimum from an arbiter as he should. I don't even like the player I'd prefer if we let him walk, but he deserves to get paid. It's not his fault Holland has fumbled with the cap since its implementation and we chose to hire him.

Anyway, let's start working out a battle plan for McLeod and Bouchard being signed and needing to move someone out for space. Is it Foegele, Kulak, or Ceci? Miraculous Campbell deal?

First off, people keep saying that McLeod took a cut, but the truth is that McLeod didn't have any leverage last year. Without arb rights he either takes what Edmonton offers him or hold out. Did he take less than what he wanted? Yes. Lets not pretend that he didn't get squeezed here by a "fumbling" GM while his agent tried to dress it up as "took a team friendly deal".

Second, an arbiter can't use "what he should have been paid last year" as grounds for a new contract. He is going to use points and TOI.

Third, the longer this goes on McLeod will actually lose leverage if McBain or Frederic end up making less than Kurashev.

Now that McLeod has arb rights, he has some leverage but only some. He has two options, sign the contract that's in front of him or leave his fate up to a 3rd party. If McLeod does choose to go to arbitration, he has to go through the painful process of getting dumped on by his team. By all accounts players who go through the process quickly find themselves traded or off the team within a year or two. Does McLeod want to risk his future for potential short-term gains? In addition, he is putting his future in the hands of a 3rd party that could very well rule for less than is on the table. There's no guarantee that he will get the money he wants. Heck he could get less than what Edmonton is offering now.

 

[duul]

First off, people keep saying that McLeod took a cut, but the truth is that McLeod didn't have any leverage last year. Without arb rights he either takes what Edmonton offers him or hold out. Did he take less than what he wanted? Yes. Lets not pretend that he got squeezed here by a "fumbling" GM and tried to dress it up as "took a team friendly deal".

Second, an arbiter can't use "what he should have been paid last year" as grounds for a new contract. He is going to use points and TOI.

Third, the longer this goes on McLeod will actually lose leverage if McBain or Frederic end up making less than Kurashev.

Now that McLeod has arb rights he has some leverage but only some. He has two options, sign the contract that's in front of him or leave his fate up to a 3rd party. If McLeod does choose to go to arbitration, he has to go through the painful process of getting dumped on by his team. By all accounts players who go through the process quickly find themselves traded or off the team within a year or two. Does McLeod want to risk his future for potential short term gains? In addition, he is putting his future in the hands of a 3rd party that could very well rule for less than is on the table.

Wasn't claiming an arbiter will do that, I'm saying he deserves to be paid what the going rate is rather than taking another cut.

Frederic will get at least 3 mil a year. The guy scored 2x as many goals as Kurashev. More points, more of an impact player. Frederic is a damn good player and will be paid accordingly. No clue about McBain can't even remember seeing him play, but a cursory glance at his stats show he's putting up more points overall but in significantly more games than McLeod. I don't know if the arbiter takes into account points per game, I would imagine it's down the list so this may work in our favour a little.

However, I think it's foolish to think Frederic will get less than 3. He's a stud compared to Kurashev.

 

[Anarchism]

So in arbitration each side gets a chance to justify the numbers they choose?

 

[McDoused]

Wasn't claiming an arbiter will do that, I'm saying he deserves to be paid what the going rate is rather than taking another cut.

Frederic will get at least 3 mil a year. The guy scored 2x as many goals as Kurashev. More points, more of an impact player. Frederic is a damn good player and will be paid accordingly. No clue about McBain can't even remember seeing him play, but a cursory glance at his stats show he's putting up more points overall but in significantly more games than McLeod. I don't know if the arbiter takes into account points per game, I would imagine it's down the list so this may work in our favour a little.

However, I think it's foolish to think Frederic will get less than 3. He's a stud compared to Kurashev.

No one is asking McLeod to "take a cut" let alone "another cut". McLeod will be able to get whatever the team offers him or arbiter awards him. He is in the same situation as last year except that he can go to an arbiter instead of holding out. As I pointed out does he really want to go down the road? I don't think he does.

My understanding is that Arbiters don't care about games played, instead they about TOI. The player would make the argument that they would put up more points over a full season but the team would argue that he is injury prone and their is no reason to think that he would be healthy.

Let me throw some math at you based on the Kurashev contract assuming that the Arbiter uses Points and TOI/G.

Name	P	TOI	Awarded	P%	TOI%	Total%	Projected Award
Kurashev	25​	17.41667​	2.2M​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20M​
McLeod	23​	14.18333​	?	92.00%​	81.44%​	86.72%​	1.91M​
McBain	26​	13.98333​	?	104.00%​	80.29%​	92.14%​	2.03M​
Frederic	31​	11.91667​	?	124.00%​	68.42%​	96.21%​	2.12M​

If Edmonton offers him a contract around 2M you have to think that McLeod would sign it, especially if you give him more years.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The Big 10 is being rocked with hazing violations, including University of Minnesota football. The ADs at each school eventually will be expanding their investigations into other prominent sports programs. Maybe Cooley wants out before the crap hits the fan.

That actually makes alot of sense.

 

[Anarchism]

No one is asking McLeod to "take a cut" let alone "another cut". McLeod will be able to get whatever the team offers him or arbiter awards him. He is in the same situation as last year except that he can go to an arbiter instead of holding out. As I pointed out does he really want to go down the road? I don't think he does.

My understanding is that Arbiters don't care about games played, instead they about TOI. The player would make the argument that they would put up more points over a full season but the team would argue that he is injury prone and their is no reason to think that he would be healthy.

Let me throw some math at you based on the Kurashev contract assuming that the Arbiter uses Points and TOI/G.

Name	P	TOI	Awarded	P%	TOI%	Total%	Projected Award
Kurashev	25​	17.41667​	2.2M​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20M​
McLeod	23​	14.18333​	?	92.00%​	81.44%​	86.72%​	1.91M​
McBain	26​	13.98333​	?	104.00%​	80.29%​	92.14%​	2.03M​
Frederic	31​	11.91667​	?	124.00%​	68.42%​	96.21%​	2.12M​

If Edmonton offers him a contract around 2M you have to think that McLeod would sign it, especially if you give him more years.

This a very well reasoned argument.
But top shelf Joe does have one arrow in his quiver...not sure if it will make a difference or not ...but there was an interview a month or so ago where Kenny categorically states Mcleod is a third line centre. I know if i am Joe i start high around 3.25 and try to work the average of third line centers? Maybe play a snippet of that interview 2 or 3 times to get it into the arbiters mind.

 

[McDoused]

If the arbiter uses goals/assists separately, broken down by weightings:

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G33/A33/TOI33)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	92.89%​	2.04​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	100.37%​	2.21​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	114.94%​	2.53​

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G25/A25/TOI50)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	90.02%​	1.98​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	95.35%​	2.10​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	103.31%​	2.27​

Still in that same ballpark 1.91-2.04M depending on the weighting of goals vs Points vs TOI.

 

[McDoused]

This a very well reasoned argument.
But top shelf Joe does have one arrow in his quiver...not sure if it will make a difference or not ...but there was an interview a month or so ago where Kenny categorically states Mcleod is a third line centre. I know if i am Joe i start high around 3.25 and try to work the average of third line centers? Maybe play a snippet of that interview 2 or 3 times to get it into the arbiters mind.

I think that's fair, if they want to look at league averages by position. I honestly don't think that's how they make a decision or else Samsonov would have received 4-5M. He was awarded 3.55M which places him as the 29th highest paid goaltender in the NHL, despite putting up better than average numbers in that position.

 

[duul]

If the arbiter uses goals/assists separately, broken down by weightings:

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G33/A33/TOI33)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	92.89%​	2.04​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	100.37%​	2.21​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	114.94%​	2.53​

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G25/A25/TOI50)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	90.02%​	1.98​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	95.35%​	2.10​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	103.31%​	2.27​

Still in that same ballpark 1.91-2.04M depending on the weighting of goals vs Points vs TOI.

Great posts, thanks.

However it's being heavily weighted for time on ice, I wonder how much that factors in. I'm sure it is a factor but you are putting it on the same level as goals and assists, and putting it as being as important as goals AND assists combined in another one.

I have a hard time believing that time on ice is the #1 priority factor in determining arb numbers is all I'm saying.

 

[McDoused]

Great posts, thanks.

However it's being heavily weighted for time on ice, I wonder how much that factors in. I'm sure it is a factor but you are putting it on the same level as goals and assists, and putting it as being as important as goals AND assists combined in another one.

I have a hard time believing that time on ice is the #1 priority factor in determining arb numbers is all I'm saying.

Thanks. I mean obviously I don't have their secret formula but even if we change the weighting of TOI it doesn't change McLeod as much as it does for a guy like Frederic.

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G40/A35/TOI25)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20M​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	95.50%​	2.10M​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	104.03%​	2.29M​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	123.29%​	2.71M​

 

[duul]

Thanks. I mean obviously I don't have their secret formula but even if we change the weighting of TOI it doesn't change McLeod as much as it does for a guy like Frederic.

Name	G	A	TOI	Awarded	G%	A%	TOI%	Total% (G40/A35/TO25)	Projected Award
Kurashev	9​	16​	17.42​	2.2​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	100.00%​	2.20M​
McLeod	11​	12​	14.18​	?	122.22%​	75.00%​	81.44%​	95.50%​	2.10M​
McBain	12​	14​	13.98​	?	133.33%​	87.50%​	80.29%​	104.03%​	2.29M​
Frederic	17​	14​	11.92​	?	188.89%​	87.50%​	68.42%​	123.29%​	2.71M​

Interesting, yea I was going to ask if you could try it at 25% TOI.

The TOI case begins to diminish I think as we look to good teams, because obviously Kurashev was playing heavy PK and top 6 minutes on a team he wouldn't play those minutes anywhere else, so his points her 60 isn't good at all.

However we look at guys like McLeod and especially Frederic who are IMO better players, Frederic especially being a guy I'm really high on, but played in a powerhouse Boston last year who had the most wins in NHL history. Yet, with the diminished minutes, he still put up 2x the goals of Kurashev for example. More goals, more points, less ice time. There has to be a balance where we look at a players talent and production vs his value to a specific team.

If we're going off how good the players are in that list, Frederic is on another level compared to the other guys. I'd put Kurashev and McLeod real similar with McBain as the guy I haven't seen but I'm sure is lumped into that bottom 6 middle 6 tweener type.

With the updated one you just posted, we're looking at 2-2.2 for McLeod which seems realistic and Frederic significantly above the others. Seems right to me anyway but I guess we'll see.

 

[gordonhught]

Just take the McLeod money and offer that to JP. Trade McLeod in a package with picks for Pesce.

 

[McDoused]

Interesting, yea I was going to ask if you could try it at 25% TOI.

The TOI case begins to diminish I think as we look to good teams, because obviously Kurashev was playing heavy PK and top 6 minutes on a team he wouldn't play those minutes anywhere else, so his points her 60 isn't good at all.

However we look at guys like McLeod and especially Frederic who are IMO better players, Frederic especially being a guy I'm really high on, but played in a powerhouse Boston last year who had the most wins in NHL history. Yet, with the diminished minutes, he still put up 2x the goals of Kurashev for example. More goals, more points, less ice time. There has to be a balance where we look at a players talent and production vs his value to a specific team.

If we're going off how good the players are in that list, Frederic is on another level compared to the other guys. I'd put Kurashev and McLeod real similar with McBain as the guy I haven't seen but I'm sure is lumped into that bottom 6 middle 6 tweener type.

With the updated one you just posted, we're looking at 2-2.2 for McLeod which seems realistic and Frederic significantly above the others. Seems right to me anyway but I guess we'll see.

I think the Oilers are fine as long as its under 2.25M for McLeod and 4M for Bouchard (combined 6.25M) so that they can still run a 21 man roster with the more expensive options (Lavoie/Broberg) over 775k guys. Ideally, it's less so they can bring a 1M player or accrue more cap space.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Just take the McLeod money and offer that to JP. Trade McLeod in a package with picks for Pesce.

JP is having ANOTHER hip surgery. Guy is worth league minimum at most.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Just take the McLeod money and offer that to JP. Trade McLeod in a package with picks for Pesce.

I have to believe you’re just trolling now with the constant get PJ back talk?

JP is having ANOTHER hip surgery. Guy is worth league minimum at most.

He isn’t worth a sack of used Glad garbage bags at most.

 

[Tarus]

JP is having ANOTHER hip surgery. Guy is worth league minimum at most.

With how awkwardly he skates/shoots, I'm surprised he isn't going in for full hip replacement yet.

 

[brentashton]

delete

 

[bobbythebrain]

I can't imagine how the Bruins win this, unless, they just show video of game 7 against the Panthers over and over, but even then.

I think the arbitrators would dock everyone on the team and give the sum to Swayman. He was arguably their best player. The passing in that game was the worst I've ever seen

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

First off, people keep saying that McLeod took a cut, but the truth is that McLeod didn't have any leverage last year. Without arb rights he either takes what Edmonton offers him or hold out. Did he take less than what he wanted? Yes. Lets not pretend that he didn't get squeezed here by a "fumbling" GM while his agent tried to dress it up as "took a team friendly deal".

Second, an arbiter can't use "what he should have been paid last year" as grounds for a new contract. He is going to use points and TOI.

Third, the longer this goes on McLeod will actually lose leverage if McBain or Frederic end up making less than Kurashev.

Now that McLeod has arb rights, he has some leverage but only some. He has two options, sign the contract that's in front of him or leave his fate up to a 3rd party. If McLeod does choose to go to arbitration, he has to go through the painful process of getting dumped on by his team. By all accounts players who go through the process quickly find themselves traded or off the team within a year or two. Does McLeod want to risk his future for potential short-term gains? In addition, he is putting his future in the hands of a 3rd party that could very well rule for less than is on the table. There's no guarantee that he will get the money he wants. Heck he could get less than what Edmonton is offering now.

Good post and posts on McLeod's situation. Fully agree people need to stop talking about McLeod taking a haircut last year. The Cap system is highly inflationary with league average salary now $3 million. The key brakes are with entry level salaries and early career non-arb rights. Especially in an extended covid flat cap era playoff teams have to squeeze every nickel.

As it stands, McLeod is going to more than double his current salary which is hard to imagine happening in any industry. He's a solid, entering into peak season bottom six player but anything over $2 million to $2.25 million or higher and the value proposition starts to risk high of value for dollar. It's a fine line when you start to tread closer salary wise to an established, gritty and hard game like a veteran guy Scott Laughton could deliver at $3 million and cost certainty over several years for this aspirational Cup team.

Arbitration is a necessary evil within this complex system. But it's not a pretty process where in which two sides lock into an adversarial battle to determine an individual player's value within the team structure/budget/life phase of organization that is distinct and independent from keeping up with the Jones league comparable who's own team context is often grossly difference.

He may win the salary arbitration battle but lose the war with pricing himself and respective individual value beyond what a Window now Oilers team wants to pay for support helpers.