Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | Lavoie Vs. Pederson Vs. Sutter Vs. Gagner Vs. Caggiula

[TheNumber4]

a lot of people on this board were happy when we signed him

I know. The idea of Skinner being a number 1 apparently too extreme of a risk to go into the season with, despite him showing all the arrows you’d need to think he could be a starter. I think that pushed a lot of the Campbell signing narrative. But even then Campbell had his detractors. Personally I never believed in him, he threw up a lot of red flags for me. And the idea to invest 5M on a goalie when we already had an uptrending Skinner combined with the volatility of the position seemed like a mistake to me in general. I also suspect a lot of the detractors grudgingly accepted the signings with an attitude of I guess wait and see cause goalies are voodoo and maybe Campbell flukes out a good season.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I know. The idea of Skinner being a number 1 apparently too extreme of a risk to go into the season with, despite him showing all the arrows you’d need to think he could be a starter. I think that pushed a lot of the Campbell signing narrative. But even then Campbell had his detractors. Personally I never believed in him, he threw up a lot of red flags for me. And the idea to invest 5M on a goalie when we already had an uptrending Skinner combined with the volatility of the position seemed like a mistake to me in general. I also suspect a lot of the detractors grudgingly accepted the signings with an attitude of I guess wait and see cause goalies are voodoo and maybe Campbell flukes out a good season.

I bet if we went with Skinner and he couldn’t handle it you would be beating the fire Holland because he relied on a rookie goalie drum.

 

[Fourier]

There’s reading between the lines, and then there’s the leap that this guy took. . Come deadline there could be any number of contenders who need a goalie, whether it is due to injury or general poor play of their current tenders. Nothing that Helle said indicated the Oilers are the front runners.

Yah...Pretty much how I saw it as well. The only chance for something like this to happen would be if Campbell has a mostly bounce back year and the Jets see him as a guy that could play for them for a while. Otherwise there is no reasonable scenario for the Oilers to trade for a goalie with a $6M+ salary. I'd put the odds at slim and none with slim only holding on by a shoestring.

 

[Anarchism]

Yah...Pretty much how I saw it as well. The only chance for something like this to happen would be if Campbell has a mostly bounce back year and the Jets see him as a guy that could play for them for a while. Otherwise there is no reasonable scenario for the Oilers to trade for a goalie with a $6M+ salary. I'd put the odds at slim and none with slim only holding on by a shoestring.

So what ur saying is one possible scenario is...
LA has Kaliyev take a reasonable step forward and they trade a couple of other prospects....say Jordan Spence and Helenius at the deadline for a quality tender and they will be one heck an out.
Meanwhile we will have Campbell who could go sideways at any time?
Oh look Chevy and Blake have a positive trade history.

 

[TheNumber4]

I bet if we went with Skinner and he couldn’t handle it you would be beating the fire Holland because he relied on a rookie goalie drum.

You’d lose that bet. I would have been happy if Holland went with the smart strategy of going cheap on a 1B goaltender. If 1B or Skinner fails it’s have still given us the cap space and flexibility to change course at the TDL.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

You’d lose that bet. I would have been happy if Holland went with the smart strategy of going cheap on a 1B goaltender. If 1B or Skinner fails it’s have still given us the cap space and flexibility to change course at the TDL.

Easy to say that now but I’ll take your word.

 

[Fourier]

So what ur saying is one possible scenario is...
LA has Kaliyev take a reasonable step forward and they trade a couple of other prospects....say Jordan Spence and Helenius at the deadline for a quality tender and they will be one heck an out.
Meanwhile we will have Campbell who could go sideways at any time?
Oh look Chevy and Blake have a positive trade history.

LA's cap situation is even tighter than the Oilers. They won't be able to get anyone like Hellebyuck with $6M+ contract by moving out prospects alone. They will at the very least need double retention. But yes they could make a deal. That does not change the fact that the Oilers can't make a deal like this unless they move Campbell.

 

[TheNumber4]

Easy to say that now but I’ll take your word.

I ain’t saying nothing I didn’t say before Campbell was signed. And for the two previous years where we were looking for a goalie. I was a big fan of Mike Smith, the player, but especially the contract. I wanted us to double down on a cheap but viable 1B like Smith.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I ain’t saying nothing I didn’t say before Campbell was signed. And for the two previous years where we were looking for a goalie. I was a big fan of Mike Smith, the player, but especially the contract. I wanted us to double down on a cheap but viable 1B like Smith.

Fair enough. I’ll admit I fell in love with Campbells athleticism and didn’t put enough weight into his mental game.

 

[Anarchism]

Fair enough. I’ll admit I fell in love with Campbells athleticism and didn’t put enough weight into his mental game.

Even if you focus on Goaltending its tough.
2 years ago i watched alot of a tender called Matt Murray from Spruce grove playing college hockey in the US. I was on here trying to get us to sign him long before the Texas Stars took him. Maybe he gets 15 games in the NHL this year. He is definitely behind the timeline i had for him.
This spring I watched alot of a guy called Eetu from San Jose n suggested a couple different trades for him. But who knows...you like there mechanics, the ways they stay up and challenge, their East west but its really hard to see whats in their heads as they progress.

 

[TheNumber4]

Fair enough. I’ll admit I fell in love with Campbells athleticism and didn’t put enough weight into his mental game.

He does have decent atheticism in his game. I noted this before, he’s good at reading and anticipating high danger cross crease one timers. And has the athleticism to get across and stop that chance. But after that initial save, he doesn’t for whatever reason (maybe stamina, maybe lack of fundamentals) use that athleticism to get his ass back up to make the following 2 or 3 saves. He just kind of stays flopped on the ice hoping and praying the next 2 or 3 shots hit him. It’s why I noted in one of the Campbell threads that after watching his highlights that I still came away unimpressed. And that’s a highlight reel. Watch the true top goalies in this league like Shesterkin and Sorokin do those same cross crease types of saves, they look way more composed and controller, and are in position for any follow up chances.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

He does have decent atheticism in his game. I noted this before, he’s good at reading and anticipating high danger cross crease one timers. And has the athleticism to get across and stop that chance. But after that initial save, he doesn’t for whatever reason (maybe stamina, maybe lack of fundamentals) use that athleticism to get his ass back up to make the following 2 or 3 saves. He just kind of stays flopped on the ice hoping and praying the next 2 or 3 shots hit him. It’s why I noted in one of the Campbell threads that after watching his highlights that I still came away unimpressed. And that’s a highlight reel. Watch the true top goalies in this league like Shesterkin and Sorokin do those same cross crease types of saves, they look way more composed and controller, and are in position for any follow up chances.

Maybe. Campbell looks lost to me after the initial save. I don’t think it’s lack of stamina.

 

[Mr Positive]

Hellebuyck Confirms He'll Eye Contender Like Oilers This Season - The Hockey Writers Latest News, Analysis & More

Connor Hellebuyck said his only goal was to win a Stanley Cup. He'll give the Jets a chance, but if things go south, look out for the Oilers.

thehockeywriters.com

Just for fun.

Hellebuyck is somewhat realistic as a trade option in that we have a good young goalie to trade Winnipeg in return.

I'd wonder what Campbell's NTC list looks like. That's also important

However there is one factor that kills this idea: the conference thing. It's very rare for rival teams to trade major pieces with each other, and teams always look to trade superstars out of their conference. No matter what we would offer, as long as someone like New Jersey offers even a similar amount Winnipeg will pick them over the Oilers every time.

He could be a UFA option I suppose but I see him as a sign and trade situation

 

[Stealth1616]

Hellebuyck is somewhat realistic as a trade option in that we have a good young goalie to trade Winnipeg in return.

I'd wonder what Campbell's NTC list looks like. That's also important

However there is one factor that kills this idea: the conference thing. It's very rare for rival teams to trade major pieces with each other, and teams always look to trade superstars out of their conference. No matter what we would offer, as long as someone like New Jersey offers even a similar amount Winnipeg will pick them over the Oilers every time.

He could be a UFA option I suppose but I see him as a sign and trade situation

He’s going to command $9M on his next deal which is unaffordable for us.

I hope you are not suggesting trading Skinner for a UFA goalie

 

[Mr Positive]

He’s going to command $9M on his next deal which is unaffordable for us.

I hope you are not suggesting trading Skinner for a UFA goalie

I'm suggesting sign and trade, which I'd assume Winnipeg will want to do

As for that 9 million, to that I'd say where there is a will, there is a way.

For instance, if we could trade Campbell somewhere that is 5 million, so we'd only need 4 million. If we could get a cheap back up, that saves about 1.6 assuming we'd have a 1 million aav backup.

I do agree with the sentiment there. We'd have to really love Hellebuyck because this would be a very costly and difficult move to pull off.

But, he's a superstar goalie. It's worth thinking about. A chance like this is rare

 

[TheNumber4]

Maybe. Campbell looks lost to me after the initial save. I don’t think it’s lack of stamina.

Yeh he does. I just wonder if the Oilers worried about that before signing, cause it was apparent in even his highlights. I will say this though, if the Oilers can be one of the most effective and computed net front clearing teams in this League and commits to a 200 ft defensive game from the get go, maybe we can still salvage Campbell. Good defence can make goalies look good, the Leaf’s were able to get a decent but short stretch with Campbell. So here’s hoping.

 

[TheNumber4]

I'm suggesting sign and trade, which I'd assume Winnipeg will want to do

As for that 9 million, to that I'd say where there is a will, there is a way.

For instance, if we could trade Campbell somewhere that is 5 million, so we'd only need 4 million. If we could get a cheap back up, that saves about 1.6 assuming we'd have a 1 million aav backup.

I do agree with the sentiment there. We'd have to really love Hellebuyck because this would be a very costly and difficult move to pull off.

But, he's a superstar goalie. It's worth thinking about. A chance like this is rare

Worth thinking about but I wouldn’t invest Superstar type numbers into a goalie. Any goalie. Could go south really quick and you’re stuck with them hoping and praying one year they’ll be worth their contract. Look at Price and Bob, how many playoff runs did they provide that was worth their contract? 1 each? And even then, debate if those runs were too worth the cap hit.

 

[RegDunlop]

Haven't posted for quite a while but have been reading. Thanks for the entertainment all summer fellas. Love it!

Goalies being the voodoo that they are - Helly is one of only a few I would open the bank for. But like many have said, too many obstacles to overcome.

If it ever becomes a possibility I would hope we jump on it. Besides the obvious work in net, I think he'd be incredible for Skinners progression.

Anyway - cheers all. Getting going soon thankfully!!!

 

[Mr Positive]

Worth thinking about but I wouldn’t invest Superstar type numbers into a goalie. Any goalie. Could go south really quick and you’re stuck with them hoping and praying one year they’ll be worth their contract. Look at Price and Bob, how many playoff runs did they provide that was worth their contract? 1 each? And even then, debate if those runs were too worth the cap hit.

Sure, but look Vasilevskiy. Or, look at all the teams who invested 9-10 million in a forward or Dman and have little hope of a cup, or deal with injury, etc. Imo, if we can't get a true superstar Dman, a great compensation for that is a superstar goalie. Winning the cup is about talent, period.

I am generally very against the idea that goalies are voodoo, or at least I will point out that every player is voodoo. It's just that goalies get a lot of laser focus. I will say that the one snag with a goalie is that if they are slumping they can't hide further down the lineup. Either they are playing or they aren't

 

[McShogun99]

I still get the feeling that Ekblad could potentially end up being available at some point and could be a target for the Oilers.

Panthers are going to be without him and Montour until late Nov or early dec. The east is so tight that if the Panthers fall behind early in the season, they may not be able to recover in such a competitive conference. They’ve also got some important pending free angents and not enough space to sign them all.

From the Oilers side, Ekblad would fill that top4 RD need pretty perfectly and Jackson used to be his agent so he’d likely wants the player here and could help facilitate a deal.

It’s hard to know how Ekblad’s value would be around the league, when he’s in the lineup and on he’s a legit top pairing guy but age and injuries are a concern, I’d say Chychrun might be a good comparable but he’s younger and has an extra year at a much cheaper cap hit compared to Ekblad.


Starting point could look something like:

Ceci + 1st + 2nd + Lavoie + Foegele (expiring contract for cap purposes) for Ekblad + minor leaguer or two to even out contracts.

Panthers don’t retain anything on Ekblad and get back a mid pairing RD on a manageable deal in Ceci, while freeing up almost 4M in space to help extend Montour, Forsling, Reinhart, Lundell, and they get a couple draft picks and a prospect to help replenish their depleted draft stock.

If we’re able to add Ekbkad and stay healthy I’d think we’d be the favorite to win the Cup.

 

[TheNumber4]

Sure, but look Vasilevskiy. Or, look at all the teams who invested 9-10 million in a forward or Dman and have little hope of a cup, or deal with injury, etc. Imo, if we can't get a true superstar Dman, a great compensation for that is a superstar goalie. Winning the cup is about talent, period.

I am generally very against the idea that goalies are voodoo, or at least I will point out that every player is voodoo. It's just that goalies get a lot of laser focus. I will say that the one snag with a goalie is that if they are slumping they can't hide further down the lineup. Either they are playing or they aren't

Truly elite goalies that can stay consistently elite are pretty rare. These are your 1st round drafted guys that teams hold onto forever. If one shakes loose, which is rare, we'd still need be up against it to afford that goalie asset or cap wise. But yeh it'd be nice.

I'm not. While all players do have their ups and downs, I think the variation in performance for a Goalie is more volatile than a forward or defenceman. I don't think it's just a matter of the focus being on them, but it does add more intense criticism when they slump.

 

[Mr Positive]

Truly elite goalies that can stay consistently elite are pretty rare. These are your 1st round drafted guys that teams hold onto forever. If one shakes loose, which is rare, we'd still need be up against it to afford that goalie asset or cap wise. But yeh it'd be nice.

I'm not. While all players do have their ups and downs, I think the variation in performance for a Goalie is more volatile than a forward or defenceman. I don't think it's just a matter of the focus being on them, but it does add more intense criticism when they slump.

Elite skaters also have a ton of variation as well though. Someone like Benn can be #1 in scoring but then seem washed, and now great again. More examples would be Skinner, Hamilton, Karlsson, Huberdeau. Or even someone like Hedman, who has enjoyed a nothing but stellar reputation, has had a ton of variation where a lot of people who watch him closely will point out huge streaks of very poor play. Or even on the Oilers people talk about Draisaitl's sleepy Decembers.

Basically if you want to win a cup you need all your players to be at their max anyway. Sure an elite goalie can't hide in the depth chart like a skater can, but if that happens to an elite skater at the most important time of the year than there is likely no cup too.

 

[TheNumber4]

Elite skaters also have a ton of variation as well though. Someone like Benn can be #1 in scoring but then seem washed, and now great again. More examples would be Skinner, Hamilton, Karlsson, Huberdeau. Or even someone like Hedman, who has enjoyed a nothing but stellar reputation, has had a ton of variation where a lot of people who watch him closely will point out huge streaks of very poor play. Or even on the Oilers people talk about Draisaitl's sleepy Decembers.

Basically if you want to win a cup you need all your players to be at their max anyway. Sure an elite goalie can't hide in the depth chart like a skater can, but if that happens to an elite skater at the most important time of the year than there is likely no cup too.

There's ebs and slows to seasons, and slumps and hotstreaks within those seasons for skaters and goalies. But I think with goalies their ebs and flows can be more year to year rather than just in-season. A goalie can have a a full year showing as a consistent goalie then the very next year can be trash for the entire year. Teams move on, that goalie may or may not recover on a new team. I don't think the year to year variances with forwards or defenders can swing as wildly as a goalie.

Everyone thought Demko was a lock as an elite starter. Then he posts .905 for the year. People thought Korpisalo was Kosko level trash for many years, then finally puts up a good year and the script is flipped. Betting that script flips right back to trash when he's a Senator.

 

[Mr Positive]

There's ebs and slows to seasons, and slumps and hotstreaks within those seasons for skaters and goalies. But I think with goalies their ebs and flows can be more year to year rather than just in-season. A goalie can have a a full year showing as a consistent goalie then the very next year can be trash for the entire year. Teams move on, that goalie may or may not recover on a new team. I don't think the year to year variances with forwards or defenders can swing as wildly as a goalie.

Everyone thought Demko was a lock as an elite starter. Then he posts .905 for the year. People thought Korpisalo was Kosko level trash for many years, then finally puts up a good year and the script is flipped. Betting that script flips right back to trash when he's a Senator.

I would like some kind of data that backs up what you are saying.

The thing is I used to believe all the goalie voodoo stuff. Idk, maybe I've swung the other way too much, but I really feel like there was an eye opening moment where I realized it was just wrong.

I would point out that there have been skaters who have had whole season slumps as well, such as my examples of Skinner, Benn and Karlsson. I still feel like the nature of the goalie position is that they are unfairly seen as a product of their team or as inherently inconsistent. And again, the issue is that yes, I do feel they are both those things, but so is everyone else.

 

[TheNumber4]

I would like some kind of data that backs up what you are saying.

The thing is I used to believe all the goalie voodoo stuff. Idk, maybe I've swung the other way too much, but I really feel like there was an eye opening moment where I realized it was just wrong.

I would point out that there have been skaters who have had whole season slumps as well, such as my examples of Skinner, Benn and Karlsson. I still feel like the nature of the goalie position is that they are unfairly seen as a product of their team or as inherently inconsistent. And again, the issue is that yes, I do feel they are both those things, but so is everyone else.

I tried to find one, but I don’t think any studies have been done on this. I definitely haven’t. It would be hard to do, you’d need a standard definition of “Voodoo” to even get started. According to one Athletic article, it seems the phrase goalies are voodoo, sprung from the analytics community as they found it difficult to quantify and predict goalie performance.

But it’s one of those things that seeeeeems true, which is why the goalies are voodoo phrase exists in the first place. It’s kind of like how hockey fans think Russians might be the better snipers in general over any other other hockey country, it seems true, but can it be backed up by a study? What would you look at shot velocity? Shooting percentage? Even if you did look at that would it prove anything? Harder shots don’t mean better shots. And shooting percentages can be affected by so many factors.

You see examples of goalies going from starters to waiver fodder and it lends you to think it’s a thing. You see Russian snipers all the time and same thing. I’ll admit I don’t have the proof, just examples that I’ve noticed. But you bring up good counter-examples too. I still think voodoo goalies are a thing, but if it was proven wrong, I’d be open to the idea too.