Rumor: Rumors & Proposals Thread | All Star Break Edition

[Mr Positive]

Do we actually think that the Oilers defence is comparable to the leafs? The leafs defence is absolute trash while the Oilers have actually been one of the best. If you upgrade on Ceci we have one of the best D cores in the NHL.

The Leafs in years past had good D numbers overall, which is the team defense model. Today, I agree that that team is garbage in terms of D talent, with the fall of Gio and Brodie. We were in that boat though, pre Ekholm. So, yeah, imo we are similar to the Leafs. They are still our closest comparable league wide

It's about talent on the back end, and neither team has that elite anchor. I do agree that adding someone like Tanev puts us over the top, but to me that is the bare minimum. If we can't have that top D then we better have a great top 4 and a solid bottom pairing.

Also I do wonder if a D upgrade in the top 4 makes Nurse play like a 1D. So for sure, this spot is my #1 priority with a bullet

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The Leafs in years past had good D numbers overall, which is the team defense model. Today, I agree that that team is garbage in terms of D talent, with the fall of Gio and Brodie. We were in that boat though, pre Ekholm.

It's about talent on the back end, and neither team has that elite anchor. I do agree that adding someone like Tanev puts us over the top, but to me that is the bare minimum. If we can't have that top D then we better have a great top 4 and a solid bottom pairing.

Bare minimum? Switching Ceci with Tanev would make our defence elite in my opinion.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The Leafs in years past had good D numbers overall, which is the team defense model. Today, I agree that that team is garbage in terms of D talent, with the fall of Gio and Brodie. We were in that boat though, pre Ekholm. So, yeah, imo we are similar to the Leafs. They are still our closest comparable league wide

It's about talent on the back end, and neither team has that elite anchor. I do agree that adding someone like Tanev puts us over the top, but to me that is the bare minimum. If we can't have that top D then we better have a great top 4 and a solid bottom pairing.

Also I do wonder if a D upgrade in the top 4 makes Nurse play like a 1D. So for sure, this spot is my #1 priority with a bullet

So Bouchard is the #1, Nurse is actually very good when not having to cover for someone often. And the leafs use Giordano and lagesson often, and neither of them are better or are playing anywhere near the level of Desharnais or Kulak.

Bare minimum? Switching Ceci with Tanev would make our defence elite in my opinion.

This, absolutely this

 

[Mr Positive]

Bare minimum? Switching Ceci with Tanev would make our defence elite in my opinion.

The standard for winning the cup is sky high. If we didn't touch the D, as is, we would be a great defense even. But, deep in the playoffs, go against a team with a great 1d, and great depth, and the weakest links on our back end would be exposed in a hurry

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The standard for winning the cup is sky high. If we didn't touch the D, as is, we would be a great defense even. But, deep in the playoffs, go against a team with a great 1d, and great depth, and the weakest links on our back end would be exposed in a hurry

If the standard is "that high" it's a cliff the leafs are staring at.

You're getting caught up in nonsense, it seems, ignoring what the group has done and is doing because they had one rough part of a game, where Nurse and Desharnais had a good first performance together and Kulak was playing like a HHOFer lol

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

The standard for winning the cup is sky high. If we didn't touch the D, as is, we would be a great defense even. But, deep in the playoffs, go against a team with a great 1d, and great depth, and the weakest links on our back end would be exposed in a hurry

Who would be the “weak links” on defence if we got Tanev?

 

[Mr Positive]

If the standard is "that high" it's a cliff the leafs are staring at.

You're getting caught up in nonsense, it seems, ignoring what the group has done and is doing because they had one rough part of a game, where Nurse and Desharnais had a good first performance together and Kulak was playing like a HHOFer lol

No, this has been a problem for a long time. The progress on D is again, the
2017 Pittsburgh model. Knoblauch has the team playing great team D, so improvements have relied on forward talent a lot. And that's it. It's about talent.

My point about Gio wasn't about what his role is this year. It's about what the Leafs used to get out of him, and no longer have access to.

 

[Louis Cypher]

This is off topic.

Anyone know a way to watch the US feed of the superbowl? I have a VPN but I think I need to subscribe to CBS all access to get it. Can't stand the stupid Canadian commercials in high repeat rotation.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

No, this has been a problem for a long time. The progress on D is again, the
2017 Pittsburgh model. Knoblauch has the team playing great team D, so improvements have relied on forward talent a lot. And that's it. It's about talent.

My point about Gio wasn't about what his role is this year. It's about what the Leafs used to get out of him, and no longer have access to.

In what universe is this defense better than the Oilers even with Ceci as a mainstay in the top-4? I think if the Oilers find an upgrade for Ceci they have a championship defense. Sincerely.

------------------------



The Oilers don't have exactly what the sabres are looking for, but this is a hell of an interesting name being shopped

 

[McDoused]

The Leafs in years past had good D numbers overall, which is the team defense model. Today, I agree that that team is garbage in terms of D talent, with the fall of Gio and Brodie. We were in that boat though, pre Ekholm. So, yeah, imo we are similar to the Leafs. They are still our closest comparable league wide

It's about talent on the back end, and neither team has that elite anchor. I do agree that adding someone like Tanev puts us over the top, but to me that is the bare minimum. If we can't have that top D then we better have a great top 4 and a solid bottom pairing.

Also I do wonder if a D upgrade in the top 4 makes Nurse play like a 1D. So for sure, this spot is my #1 priority with a bullet

The stats don't support your argument.

Edmonton is 3rd in the NHL in expected goals against with 90.63. They are 2nd in the NHL in shots against with 1002. They are 3rd in scoring chances against with 938 and 2nd in the NHL in CA with 1951. Edmonton is 2nd in the NHL in HDCA with 377.


Toronto is 25th in expected goals against with 108.18. They are 14th in shots against with 1159. They are 20th in the NHL in scoring chances against with 1118 and 20th in CA with 2440. Toronto is 24th in the NHL with 473 HDCA.

One big difference is that Edmonton has the 3rd worst HDSV% in the league while Toronto actually has the 11th best HDSV%.

We are the vastly better defensive team. If you move Ceci out we get even better.

 

[Jet Walters]

Did Ekholm play with Carrier in Nashville? Maybe that’s the reasoning behind the D shuffle? Get Sissons while you’re at it too.

Nurse Vinny
Ekholm Carrier
Kulak Bouchard

You could split those even strength minutes up fairly evenly, and both your penalty kill pairs are already together which would be less disruptive.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Did Ekholm play with Carrier in Nashville? Maybe that’s the reasoning behind the D shuffle? Get Sissons while you’re at it too.

Nurse Vinny
Ekholm Carrier
Kulak Bouchard

You could split those even strength minutes up fairly evenly, and both your penalty kill pairs are already together which would be less disruptive.

if im trading a first id prefer fabbro back as he's an RFA and playing similar minutes to carrier.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Did Ekholm play with Carrier in Nashville? Maybe that’s the reasoning behind the D shuffle? Get Sissons while you’re at it too.

Nurse Vinny
Ekholm Carrier
Kulak Bouchard

You could split those even strength minutes up fairly evenly, and both your penalty kill pairs are already together which would be less disruptive.

I dunno. The mixed up D pairs looked mostly awful last night except Kulak and Bouchard.

 

[Jet Walters]

if im trading a first id prefer fabbro back as he's an RFA and playing similar minutes to carrier.

I’d assume they’d want to keep Fabbro since Carrier and Barrie are probably leaving. Nashville should be open to taking on Ceci’s final year because of that at least. I don’t think Carrier returns a 1st, but if it’s Sissons plus a half price Carrier I could see a 1st and Ceci going for that.

I dunno. The mixed up D pairs looked mostly awful last night except Kulak and Bouchard.

All the new pairings need more than a game together to get a decent assessment. Give them a few weeks and then pull the plug if it’s still not working.

 

[Mr Positive]

The stats don't support your argument.

Edmonton is 3rd in the NHL in expected goals against with 90.63. They are 2nd in the NHL in shots against with 1002. They are 3rd in scoring chances against with 938 and 2nd in the NHL in CA with 1951. Edmonton is 2nd in the NHL in HDCA with 377.


Toronto is 25th in expected goals against with 108.18. They are 14th in shots against with 1159. They are 20th in the NHL in scoring chances against with 1118 and 20th in CA with 2440. Toronto is 24th in the NHL with 473 HDCA.

One big difference is that Edmonton has the 3rd worst HDSV% in the league while Toronto actually has the 11th best HDSV%.

We are the vastly better defensive team. If you move Ceci out we get even better.

I do think that Toronto this year is a joke, and so probably out bid us for Dmen. I did say in years past. Basically Treliving let good possession players leave and signed the likes of Bertuzzi and Domi, while letting his D continue to rot. But for a few years the Leafs fans would always dismiss the idea that they really needed defense because of some good D stats.

I do put more credit on Knoblauch's systems for the good D numbers. That is a whole different issue than the talent of the defensemen. I do worry how they will hold up when the chips are down.

 

[Fourier]

Did Ekholm play with Carrier in Nashville? Maybe that’s the reasoning behind the D shuffle? Get Sissons while you’re at it too.

Nurse Vinny
Ekholm Carrier
Kulak Bouchard

You could split those even strength minutes up fairly evenly, and both your penalty kill pairs are already together which would be less disruptive.

Yes he did. In fact Carrier was his main partner before the trade.

 

[Skolman]

Yes he did. In fact Carrier was his main partner before the trade.

Any of you advanced stats guys happen to know how they did when paired together?

 

[McDoused]

Any of you advanced stats guys happen to know how they did when paired together?

They were okay, not great. Honestly not worth breaking up the Ekholm-Bouchard pair.

I think they "looked" better because their actuals goals above expected was good.

 

[Mr Positive]

I bet we have the inside track on Tanev

The Flames look like they want to stay competitive. We have interest in upgrading someone like Ceci or Kulak but both of them are damn good defensemen. Either could be like the Kuzmenko of the deal. They did that one year. They sold guys off but made the playoffs.

I suppose other teams may have Dmen to send back. But, Calgary has seen a lot of our guys.

 

[TheNumber4]

I bet we have the inside track on Tanev

The Flames look like they want to stay competitive. We have interest in upgrading someone like Ceci or Kulak but both of them are damn good defensemen. Either could be like the Kuzmenko of the deal. They did that one year. They sold guys off but made the playoffs.

I suppose other teams may have Dmen to send back. But, Calgary has seen a lot of our guys.

I still think the Flames won’t trade us shit. They’ll use Hollands interest to build his value and distract Holland, then pull the rug from under us at the final minute.

If I was to guess, Tanev still ends up in
Van. Or he goes to Toronto.

 

[McDoused]

I wonder if we could get Walker AND Seeler.

 

[Mr Positive]

I still think the Flames won’t trade us shit. They’ll use Hollands interest to build his value and distract Holland, then pull the rug from under us at the final minute.

If I was to guess, Tanev still ends up in
Van. Or he goes to Toronto.

Vancouver has been just as big a rival to the Flames as Edmonton. We could potentially also trade our first rounder for him, like if he came with an extension, or something else.

However yes, they would prefer to ship him out East. But, who is Toronto's Ceci or Kulak coming the other way? Reunion with Brodie? I doubt the Leafs do that.

 

[TheNumber4]

Vancouver has been just as big a rival to the Flames as Edmonton. We could potentially also trade our first rounder for him, like if he came with an extension, or something else.

However yes, they would prefer to ship him out East. But, who is Toronto's Ceci or Kulak coming the other way? Reunion with Brodie? I doubt the Leafs do that.

I don’t see it as that. The BoA rivalary is much deeper. It’s like our “rivalry” with the Kings, it’s not the same as the BoA.

It’s not necessarily they need a roster player back in the trade. If they did, the Leaf’s do kinda want to get rid of Brodie and his regression though.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

The Leafs in years past had good D numbers overall, which is the team defense model. Today, I agree that that team is garbage in terms of D talent, with the fall of Gio and Brodie. We were in that boat though, pre Ekholm. So, yeah, imo we are similar to the Leafs. They are still our closest comparable league wide

It's about talent on the back end, and neither team has that elite anchor. I do agree that adding someone like Tanev puts us over the top, but to me that is the bare minimum. If we can't have that top D then we better have a great top 4 and a solid bottom pairing.

Also I do wonder if a D upgrade in the top 4 makes Nurse play like a 1D. So for sure, this spot is my #1 priority with a bullet

There's been no evidence that the Leafs are on our level defensively ever since we acquired a high end 2D in Ekholm while getting rid of the AOE debuff that made all 5 other dmen worse in Barrie. Regardless of whether it's traditional goals against stats, analytics, name value/talent, or eye test. In fact if you go off metrics like HDCA and xGA per 60 we're a top 5 defensive team in the NHL.

I would like an upgrade at defense, specifically I'd like to swap out Ceci for a top 4 RHD upgrade like Tanev, then swap out Kulak for Broberg and get a top 6 forward.

 

[Mr Positive]

There's been no evidence that the Leafs are on our level defensively ever since we acquired a high end 2D in Ekholm while getting rid of the AOE debuff that made all 5 other dmen worse in Barrie. Regardless of whether it's traditional goals against stats, analytics, name value/talent, or eye test. In fact if you go off metrics like HDCA and xGA per 60 we're a top 5 defensive team in the NHL.

I would like an upgrade at defense, specifically I'd like to swap out Ceci for a top 4 RHD upgrade like Tanev, then swap out Kulak for Broberg and get a top 6 forward.

I totally agree with that play to upgrade the D. However I'm softening a bit to the idea that we should aim to keep Kulak around for this season.

With those stats, I believe those don't show how great your defensmen truly are. I see those as team stats. When it comes to the quality of the defensemen, the way I see it is that it's much simpler than breaking down these stats. Look at the level of talent the team has invested in the forward core vs the defense. The Ekholm trade was a breath of life out of desperate need but the talent level and GM effort is still stilted towards the offense. There have been several big additions over the years there. Hyman, Kane, all that cash spent on Brown. Ekholm's value to us wasn't just because he is great, but because we were starved for any kind of move there and I believe there is still a large hunger there. That's where the huge potential gains are.