Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Spector: Kassian Extension Before Trade Deadline? Anything Else?

[oobga]

Did anybody hear Bob Stauffer talking about Chia turning down Backlund/Wideman/Our draft pick for CGY's draft pick in the Pool Party draft. It was something around that.

The player that was gonna replace Hall's production fell on our lap. Who could blame him?

 

[McVirginOil]

Nurse without Bear or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (44.19%)//FF% (44.57%)//GF%(57.64%)//xGF%(48.59%)//SCF%(40.92%)//PDO (1.047)// 36% OZFO%

Bear without Nurse or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (51.33%)//FF% (53.91%)//GF%(69.33%)//xGF%(59.78%)//SCF%(57.60%)//PDO (1.061)//48% OZFO%


Bear and Nurse together: (700+ minutes)

CF% (50.72%)//FF% (49.56%)//GF%(47.02%)//xGF%(50.47%)//SCF%(53.72%)//PDO (0.989)//53% OZFO%

Legend:
CF%: Corsi For% (Used as a measure of approximate possession through shot attempts)

FF%: Fenwick For% (Similar to CF%, but measures unblocked shot attempts)

GF%: Goals For% (The percentage of goals scored for when on the ice vs goals scored against when on ice)

xGF%: Expected Goals For% (A measurement for goals on ice one is expected to get using a model that accounts for multiple factors including: shot angle, shot speed, screens, rebounds, type of shot, etc.)

SCF%: Scoring Chances For% (Same as goals for% but looks at scoring chances for when on ice vs scoring chances against)

PDO: Doesn’t stand for anything but it measures the sum of the team’s shooting% and save% when the player is on the ice, a measurement for “luck”. 1.00 is considered average (This one is weird because apparently the stat was invented by the Oilers, and subsequently never used).

OZFO%: Offensive zone face off%

All stats at 5v5 score and venue adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.
@McDNicks17

edit: colour coordinated to help viewers know what’s good and bad

 

[SK13]

We dont need the higher profile names....we have enough....
We need to find the ideal buy low guy for LW....somebody called J walters here had Coleman awhile back...

Just so i have an idea ...I think we could keep Tierney.....and Ottawa would let us talk to the agent....
What do you think the cost would be??

I don't think we do honestly, but it's kind of a moot point because when I say "higher profile names" I'm not even really talking about Taylor Hall or anything crazy. There are just probably a dozen names on the list and you might do better than Granlund for similar money on the market. As a rental option, I think he fits that tier-2 rental who is both good enough and won't cost the Oilers an asset in the first round pick territory. He may be a good enough fit during a rental stint to try and sign but I'd like the audition phase frankly.

We would keep Tierney because he's an RFA. I don't know what the cost would be but the assets the Oilers have to move would be the tier 2 defenseman prospects (Jones, Samorukov, Lagesson), Jesse's rights, the second round pick and maybe some fluff like Khaira and Benning.

 

[SK13]

Nurse without Bear or Russell: (110+ minutes)

This doesn't tell you much of anything because the samples are so different. Bear has spent the overwhelming majrity of his time with Nurse (756 minutes w/, 128 minutes w/o) and much of that time apart is fringe hockey. After a PK or PP, garbage time type stuff - not very indicative of a regular shift and not in line with regular usage.

I have no doubts that Nurse has been better with the best puck mover on the team and the best right handed defenseman on the team this year. That's obvious. You just a need a bigger sample for something like those numbers to tell a story about Nurse.

 

[McDNicks17]

Nurse without Bear or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (44.19%)//FF% (44.57%)//GF%(57.64%)//xGF%(48.59%)//SCF%(40.92%)//PDO (1.047)// 36% OZFO%

Bear without Nurse or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (51.33%)//FF% (53.91%)//GF%(69.33%)//xGF%(59.78%)//SCF%(57.60%)//PDO (1.061)//48% OZFO%


Bear and Nurse together: (700+ minutes)

CF% (50.72%)//FF% (49.56%)//GF%(47.02%)//xGF%(50.47%)//SCF%(53.72%)//PDO (0.989)//53% OZFO%

Legend:
CF%: Corsi For% (Used as a measure of approximate possession through shot attempts)

FF%: Fenwick For% (Similar to CF%, but measures unblocked shot attempts)

GF%: Goals For% (The percentage of goals scored for when on the ice vs goals scored against when on ice)

xGF%: Expected Goals For% (A measurement for goals on ice one is expected to get using a model that accounts for multiple factors including: shot angle, shot speed, screens, rebounds, type of shot, etc.)

SCF%: Scoring Chances For% (Same as goals for% but looks at scoring chances for when on ice vs scoring chances against)

PDO: Doesn’t stand for anything but it measures the sum of the team’s shooting% and save% when the player is on the ice, a measurement for “luck”. 1.00 is considered average (This one is weird because apparently the stat was invented by the Oilers, and subsequently never used).

OZFO%: Offensive zone face off%

All stats at 5v5 score and venue adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.
@McDNicks17

Alright. You copy and pasted some numbers.

Now make your case on why you think comparing Nurse's 100 minutes with Larsson, Jones and Benning with Bear's 100 minutes with Klefbom shows their true value.

 

[McVirginOil]

This doesn't tell you much of anything because the samples are so different. Bear has spent the overwhelming majrity of his time with Nurse (756 minutes w/, 128 minutes w/o) and much of that time apart is fringe hockey. After a PK or PP, garbage time type stuff - not very indicative of a regular shift and not in line with regular usage.

I have no doubts that Nurse has been better with the best puck mover on the team and the best right handed defenseman on the team this year. That's obvious. You just a need a bigger sample for something like those numbers to tell a story about Nurse.

I know, I specifically mentioned that because Bear without Nurse or Russell was a similar sample size except Bear did much better.

 

[GodPucker]

What do those stats up there mean in English for us regular folk?

 

[SK13]

I know, I specifically mentioned that because Bear without Nurse or Russell was a similar sample size except Bear did much better.

I think it would be more indicative if you compared Nurse-Russell in 18-19 to Nurse-Bear in 19-20 than the small samples of Bear away from Nurse.

But I don't think you'd be reinforcing anything everyone doesn't already believe: that Bear is a significantly better defenseman for that spot than Kris Russell is.

 

[McVirginOil]

Alright. You copy and pasted some numbers.

Now make your case on why you think comparing Nurse's 100 minutes with Larsson, Jones and Benning with Bear's 100 minutes with Klefbom shows their true value.

I could show their relative values. Relative stats help isolate the player from the team playstyle and teammates as it looks at how good you are relative to your teammates. Or maybe look at GAR (goals contributed above a replacement/or average player) isolates and shot map isolates to help separate the player from the teammate.

 

[McVirginOil]

What do those stats up there mean in English for us regular folk?

I think I have most of it in the legend but feel free to ask what something specific means and I’ll be happy to answer.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Nurse without Bear or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (44.19%)//FF% (44.57%)//GF%(57.64%)//xGF%(48.59%)//SCF%(40.92%)//PDO (1.047)// 36% OZFO%

Bear without Nurse or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (51.33%)//FF% (53.91%)//GF%(69.33%)//xGF%(59.78%)//SCF%(57.60%)//PDO (1.061)//48% OZFO%


Bear and Nurse together: (700+ minutes)

CF% (50.72%)//FF% (49.56%)//GF%(47.02%)//xGF%(50.47%)//SCF%(53.72%)//PDO (0.989)//53% OZFO%

Legend:
CF%: Corsi For% (Used as a measure of approximate possession through shot attempts)

FF%: Fenwick For% (Similar to CF%, but measures unblocked shot attempts)

GF%: Goals For% (The percentage of goals scored for when on the ice vs goals scored against when on ice)

xGF%: Expected Goals For% (A measurement for goals on ice one is expected to get using a model that accounts for multiple factors including: shot angle, shot speed, screens, rebounds, type of shot, etc.)

SCF%: Scoring Chances For% (Same as goals for% but looks at scoring chances for when on ice vs scoring chances against)

PDO: Doesn’t stand for anything but it measures the sum of the team’s shooting% and save% when the player is on the ice, a measurement for “luck”. 1.00 is considered average (This one is weird because apparently the stat was invented by the Oilers, and subsequently never used).

OZFO%: Offensive zone face off%

All stats at 5v5 score and venue adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.
@McDNicks17

edit: colour coordinated to help viewers know what’s good and bad

Holy Sheet, I knew Bear was good this year, but wow.

 

[BarDownBobo]

We've got a good thing going with our 2nd line now and IMO Hall would've been a better linemate for Drai than Connor. So I would be targeting a winger for Connor. I'd want that player to be fast, defensively responsible, physical (preferably big as well) and able to shoot and pass the puck well. Krieder would've been ideal IMO but of course he doesn't want to come to Canada.

Someone mentioned Max Domi a few threads back and I’m kind of obsessed with that idea. I have no idea if he’s available but a Domi-McDavid-Kassian like would be amazing IMO. We know the Habs at least had some level of interest in Pulju, I wonder if a deal could be made around him and one of our defense prospects.

 

[McDNicks17]

I could show their relative values. Relative stats help isolate the player from the team playstyle and teammates as it looks at how good you are relative to your teammates.

Relative stats won't consider any context either in this case.

They won't notice things like Klefbom being the biggest draw on Nurse's possession numbers when away from Bear. They won't really consider that those two are likely only on the ice together after the end of PKs when the opponent still has pressure.

It's silly to make any conclusions over small difference in small sample sizes without any context.

 

[Little Fury]

You confuse facts with stats.... that's your issue. Stats can lie. stats can be used to twist and prove things that aren't true.

Instead of repeating this over and over and over like a mantra, maybe you can tell me specifically how the stats are lying in this case.

 

[Faelko]

Did anybody hear Bob Stauffer talking about Chia turning down Backlund/Wideman/Our draft pick for CGY's draft pick in the Pool Party draft. It was something around that.

I’d like to know the whole story on that, Wideman was a negative on the deal but adding Backlund to drop 2 spots would seem like a no brainer...oh right, it was Chiarelli so “no-brainer” kind of fits

 

[CupofOil]

Yep, the cap will go up so will salaries. I do not know why some have not grasped that concept. It happens literally every bloody times the cap goes up. Was not that long ago that a 4 million dollar contract was a lot to spend.

Oh, I grasp the concept just fine.
Morrissey got $6.25M just one offseason before Nurse will get extended, it's not like there will be some unprecedented rise in cap fromlast offseason to this offseason not to the the point where 7-7.5m is the same cap percentage as 6.25m so considering that Morrissey is the closest Nurse comparable out there and taking into account a slight rise in cap, 6.5m should be the benchmark for a Nurse contract.

If his demands are 7m or higher, they should look to trade him. Nurse is good but in reality, he's a #2/#3 Dman on a good team.

 

[gordonhught]

Nurse without Bear or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (44.19%)//FF% (44.57%)//GF%(57.64%)//xGF%(48.59%)//SCF%(40.92%)//PDO (1.047)// 36% OZFO%

Bear without Nurse or Russell: (110+ minutes)

CF% (51.33%)//FF% (53.91%)//GF%(69.33%)//xGF%(59.78%)//SCF%(57.60%)//PDO (1.061)//48% OZFO%


Bear and Nurse together: (700+ minutes)

CF% (50.72%)//FF% (49.56%)//GF%(47.02%)//xGF%(50.47%)//SCF%(53.72%)//PDO (0.989)//53% OZFO%

Legend:
CF%: Corsi For% (Used as a measure of approximate possession through shot attempts)

FF%: Fenwick For% (Similar to CF%, but measures unblocked shot attempts)

GF%: Goals For% (The percentage of goals scored for when on the ice vs goals scored against when on ice)

xGF%: Expected Goals For% (A measurement for goals on ice one is expected to get using a model that accounts for multiple factors including: shot angle, shot speed, screens, rebounds, type of shot, etc.)

SCF%: Scoring Chances For% (Same as goals for% but looks at scoring chances for when on ice vs scoring chances against)

PDO: Doesn’t stand for anything but it measures the sum of the team’s shooting% and save% when the player is on the ice, a measurement for “luck”. 1.00 is considered average (This one is weird because apparently the stat was invented by the Oilers, and subsequently never used).

OZFO%: Offensive zone face off%

All stats at 5v5 score and venue adjusted from NaturalStatTrick.
@McDNicks17

edit: colour coordinated to help viewers know what’s good and bad

So what is good and what is bad.

I assume red is bad. What about yellow green and blue?

Is blue good? How about green?

 

[destro909]

Oh, I grasp the concept just fine.
Morrissey got $6.25M just one offseason before Nurse will get extended, it's not like there will be some unprecedented rise in cap fromlast offseason to this offseason not to the the point where 7-7.5m is the same cap percentage as 6.25m so considering that Morrissey is the closest Nurse comparable out there and taking into account a slight rise in cap, 6.5m should be the benchmark for a Nurse contract.

If his demands are 7m or higher, they should look to trade him. Nurse is good but in reality, he's a #2/#3 Dman on a good team.

I agree, and Holland should be able to leverage that Morrissey deal into a very similar contract for Nurse.

 

[McVirginOil]

Relative stats won't consider any context either in this case.

They won't notice things like Klefbom being the biggest draw on Nurse's possession numbers when away from Bear. They won't really consider that those two are likely only on the ice together after the end of PKs when the opponent still has pressure.

It's silly to make any conclusions over small difference in small sample sizes without any context.

You’re right. I can do shot map isolates instead that actually separate the player from teammate via regression or RAPM isolates.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Holy Sheet, I knew Bear was good this year, but wow.

Fans of other teams on the mains get really upset when you tell them that Bear is in no way, shape, or form available. Mostly because they have zero idea of how good he's actually been.

I maintain that he'd be right up there with Makar and Hughes in scoring if he got powerplay time.

 

[McVirginOil]

So what is good and what is bad.

I assume red is bad. What about yellow green and blue?

Is blue good? How about green?

Green is good, red is bad, orange is average, and blue is superb.

 

[McVirginOil]

Fans of other teams on the mains get really upset when you tell them that Bear is in no way, shape, or form available. Mostly because they have zero idea of how good he's actually been.

I maintain that he'd be right up there with Makar and Hughes in scoring if he got powerplay time.

Bear I think is better than Makar at 5v5 and even to Hughes. It’s crazy how good he is.

 

[McVirginOil]

These are the isolates for Bear/Nurse

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Did anybody hear Bob Stauffer talking about Chia turning down Backlund/Wideman/Our draft pick for CGY's draft pick in the Pool Party draft. It was something around that.

Yup.

If I heard right it was:

Mikael Backlund
Dennis Wideman
6th overall

For

4th overall
unspecified 2nd round pick.

I mean, hindsight is 20/20, but at the time that's not a good trade for us at all. Backlund was 2 years to UFA and would have been behind Connor and RNH at centre and Wideman was a massive one-year cap dump coming off of assaulting an official. I don't blame Chia for not doing it.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Fans of other teams on the mains get really upset when you tell them that Bear is in no way, shape, or form available. Mostly because they have zero idea of how good he's actually been.

I maintain that he'd be right up there with Makar and Hughes in scoring if he got powerplay time.

I could see Hughes, Makar appears to be on a different planet as a rookie.