Rumor: Rumors and Proposals Thread | Reseason Training Camp Opens July 13th?

[Jumptheshark]

Välkommen tillbaka Joel Persson

Persson signed a three year deal back in Sweden.

Shocked I tell ya

 

[SK13]

I think Joel Persson is an NHL level puck mover who may have become an NHL regular defenseman over time.

Weirdly I am happy that winning in the short term is finally too important for the Oilers to have that kind of patience.

 

[backhandsauce]

July 1 do we extend Nuge? 6.5 x 6?

 

[nabob]

July 1 do we extend Nuge? 6.5 x 6?

I hope so

give him 8 years! Nuge Forever!!

 

[nabob]

I think Joel Persson is an NHL level puck mover who may have become an NHL regular defenseman over time.

Weirdly I am happy that winning in the short term is finally too important for the Oilers to have that kind of patience.

I think he has the hockey IQ and the puck moving ability. Not sure his skating or physical abilities are there.

 

[LTIR]

July 1 do we extend Nuge? 6.5 x 6?

Hopefully we stretch the re-signing past expansion draft allowing us to protect another forward.

 

[Jumptheshark]

July 1 do we extend Nuge? 6.5 x 6?

only if Nuge takes a home town discount

 

[Jumptheshark]

I think Joel Persson is an NHL level puck mover who may have become an NHL regular defenseman over time.

Weirdly I am happy that winning in the short term is finally too important for the Oilers to have that kind of patience.

sorry

no he would not have

 

[PaPaDee]

sorry

no he would not have

He did seem effective at times. I think he could turn into a decent NHLer if given time.

 

[Jumptheshark]

He did seem effective at times. I think he could turn into a decent NHLer if given time.

sorry no

Even in Sweden he was a PP specialist who never was on the ice in his own zone

we are not talking about a 19 year old we are taking about a 26 year old

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

only if Nuge takes a home town discount

That would for sure be a hometown discount. Someone will give him 8 on the open market.

 

[SK13]

That would for sure be a hometown discount. Someone will give him 8 on the open market.

I don't think anybody like him has ever pulled 8M from the open market, but whatever would have happened in a normal scenario is pretty out the window. Lots of very good players are going to lose millions on their next contracts because of how the leagues finances are going to be shaped by the pandemic.

To the point where I think a lot of players will take discounts for the comfort of stability.

 

[LTIR]

That would for sure be a hometown discount. Someone will give him 8 on the open market.

What team will give him 8M per contract?
Nuge hasn't produced as a C and Jim getting PP points playing 3rd fiddle to McDrai will also be evaluated by GMs.

He should get at least the Kreider money but certainly not 8M per.

Holland should be able to lock him up for under 7M .. 7 x 7 is the max he would get in open market unless he produces around PPG again next season

 

[McShogun99]

What team will give him 8M per contract?
Nuge hasn't produced as a C and Jim getting PP points playing 3rd fiddle to McDrai will also be evaluated by GMs.

He should get at least the Kreider money but certainly not 8M per.

Holland should be able to lock him up for under 7M .. 7 x 7 is the max he would get in open market unless he produces around PPG again next season

8 million would put him 39th in the league for cap hit. He'd have the same cap hit as Duchene, RyJo and Couture so it wouldn't be impossible for a team that needs a quality 2C or 1LW to give him that. 7 million from the Oilers is probably fair for everything he brings to the team but I have a feeling that he'll sign for a little less to help the team out.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

What team will give him 8M per contract?
Nuge hasn't produced as a C and Jim getting PP points playing 3rd fiddle to McDrai will also be evaluated by GMs.

He should get at least the Kreider money but certainly not 8M per.

Holland should be able to lock him up for under 7M .. 7 x 7 is the max he would get in open market unless he produces around PPG again next season

He hasn't produced at center because his linemates always sucked. Teams are getting to see his value these last 2 years when he has had competent linemates he is a 60 point player who plays both special teams.

 

[MessierII]

He hasn't produced at center because his linemates always sucked. Teams are getting to see his value these last 2 years when he has had competent linemates he is a 60 point player who plays both special teams.

Even when he was glued to Hall and Eberle he generally was 50-60 point guy. Not a bad player by any means but still.

 

[SK13]

Even when he was glued to Hall and Eberle he generally was 50-60 point guy. Not a bad player by any means but still.

If you look at this era as 2011-2012 through 2014-2015, he scored 65 goals and 188 points in 258 games. Which, yes, is a 20-40-60 guy right down the middle. The gap between that and what Nuge has been in the last couple years (a 25+, 70 point player) isn't massive.

It feels like a big jump because of what Nuge had become in the Todd McLellan years. Between being utilized as a checking centre for long periods, losing 60 games to injury between 2015 and 2017 and playing with scraps while McDrai were lined up together took a big chunk of his production, particularly at ES.

If, say, Draisaitl played LW and RNH played C - I doubt the numbers would change too drastically. He's capable of producing as a 1B or #2 centre. He's just better utilized right now as a scoring winger considering the team already has, arguably, the two best centres in the world.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers can give RNH an 8th year which means they can have him for a better cap hit than any other team can if they structure the deal well.

8/8/8/8/8/8/5/4 = 7.125 cap hit, that's fair, he gets 8 per for most of his contract and then takes a little less in the back end.

The Oilers are in a good position, if he isn't reasonable they can sell high on him. Many players will do well playing with McDavid or Draisaitl.

 

[MessierII]

If you look at this era as 2011-2012 through 2014-2015, he scored 65 goals and 188 points in 258 games. Which, yes, is a 20-40-60 guy right down the middle. The gap between that and what Nuge has been in the last couple years (a 25+, 70 point player) isn't massive.

It feels like a big jump because of what Nuge had become in the Todd McLellan years. Between being utilized as a checking centre for long periods, losing 60 games to injury between 2015 and 2017 and playing with scraps while McDrai were lined up together took a big chunk of his production, particularly at ES.

If, say, Draisaitl played LW and RNH played C - I doubt the numbers would change too drastically. He's capable of producing as a 1B or #2 centre. He's just better utilized right now as a scoring winger considering the team already has, arguably, the two best centres in the world.

That’s a bit of an arbitrary cutoff omitting his worst years. From his rookie season until he played his first playoff game in 2017 he averaged 55 points every 82 games. His linemates didn’t change much in 2015 through to 17. Hall was still there a year and he spent a ton of time with Eberle who was there that whole time. Pouliot was solid for some of that time as was Lucic. He also faced easier competition after we got Conor. So like I said he was a 50-60 point player. Closer to 60 at times sure. I think the difference now is a big step but I’m not surprised. He came into the league looking like he was 15 it’s not a shock he’s peaking in his mid to late 20’s. Playing with one of Leon or Connor isn’t hurting also. I think it’s a mix of him developing slowly and his utilization.

 

[Fourier]

I don't think anybody like him has ever pulled 8M from the open market, but whatever would have happened in a normal scenario is pretty out the window. Lots of very good players are going to lose millions on their next contracts because of how the leagues finances are going to be shaped by the pandemic.

To the point where I think a lot of players will take discounts for the comfort of stability.

Matt Duchene got $8M for 7 years from Nashville. But I agree that the pandemic has thrown everything out the door. I also think Nuge would be an easy guy to resign anyway. He just seems like a guy who would prefer security and stability.

What team will give him 8M per contract?
Nuge hasn't produced as a C and Jim getting PP points playing 3rd fiddle to McDrai will also be evaluated by GMs.

He should get at least the Kreider money but certainly not 8M per.

Holland should be able to lock him up for under 7M .. 7 x 7 is the max he would get in open market unless he produces around PPG again next season

I am not sure where the claim that he has not produced as a center comes from. If you look at the time period between 2011-2012 and 2016-2017 that Messier11 references Nuge sits at around 36th for centers (if you exclude guys who played a lot on the wings) in pts/g with .67. To put that into perspective Nate McKinnon was at .69 over that time period. The difference between him and guys in the top 20 was about 6 points a season with that top 20 containing about a dozen guys who likely make the HHoF. And that list also includes aging stars like Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Sedin and Elias. Throw out the two years McLellan used him as the shutdown guy and he's 27th with a .73 pts/g total over the first 4 years of his career. All but a couple of guys ahead of him either make $8M+ or would have if you took their equivalent contracts in todays dollars.

Plus if you look at the last three years his pts/g totals as a center would be in the .75-.8 range despite having less than stellar wingers. His over all pts/g total in the last three years was .85.

Kreider by the way has been a .6 pt/g player over his career. Over the last 3 years he was .67. And he's a winger.

And again, I still think an 8 year deal in the $6-7 range is very doable.

 

[SK13]

Matt Duchene got $8M for 7 years from Nashville. But I agree that the pandemic has thrown everything out the door. I also think Nuge would be an easy guy to resign anyway. He just seems like a guy who would prefer security and stability.

I would argue the perception of Duchene and RNH is different, rightly or wrongly.

Duchene was coming off 58 points in 50 games, was an Olympian based off seasons nearing a PPG. Like Johansen, he was signed with the idea that he's a superstar. I don't think anyone will ever sign RNH thinking he's their solution.

 

[Bangers]

All it takes is for one team that a) doesn't have a legitimate 1C, and b) has a large amount of cap room, and Nuge gets a much higher deal than people are expecting.

I'm hoping Holland can get a long term deal wrapped up as early as possible.

 

[CupofOil]

I would argue the perception of Duchene and RNH is different, rightly or wrongly.

Duchene was coming off 58 points in 50 games, was an Olympian based off seasons nearing a PPG. Like Johansen, he was signed with the idea that he's a superstar. I don't think anyone will ever sign RNH thinking he's their solution.

Duchene is very inconsistent but he has shown more ability to drive offense than RNH and the eye test matches the numbers in that sense. I've never really saw them as comparables like some here have, Duchene is a more accomplished offensive player and has shown ability to produce top line numbers in a scoring role.

I think RNH is the more reliable 2 way player and is a guy that can blend with linemates better but offense gets the big bucks so if the cap remains flat for the next few seasons (which I think is a strong possibility), the Oilers should be able to get RNH under $7m on a 7-8 year deal.

 

[Fourier]

Duchene is very inconsistent but he has shown more ability to drive offense than RNH and the eye test matches the numbers in that sense. I've never really saw them as comparables like some here have, Duchene is a more accomplished offensive player and has shown ability to produce top line numbers in a scoring role.

I think RNH is the more reliable 2 way player and is a guy that can blend with linemates better but offense gets the big bucks so if the cap remains flat for the next few seasons (which I think is a strong possibility), the Oilers should be able to get RNH under $7m on a 7-8 year deal.

Here are the career numbers:

Duchene: .309 g/gp .434a/gp .743 pts/gp

Prorated to 82 games: 25g 36a 61pts

Nugent-Hopkins .280 g/gp .454 a/gp .737 pts/gp

Prorated to 82 games: 23g 37a 60pts

And unlike Nuge, Duchene has never been asked to be the primary defensive person on his line. In Ottawa for example, they simply played firewagon hockey. In 2016-2017 Colorado tired giving him more of a defensive role including putting him on the pk. He was asked to carry guys like Grigorenko and Matt Nietto. (sound familiar) The result was his worst offensive season. He also had his best year in Colorado playing the wing on Ryan O'Rielly's line which often included Nate MacKinnon by the way.

So while I agree that Nuge is the more reliable two-way player one wold think that if Duchene was a tier up offensively then it would show in the actual numbers after this long in the league. What he is is flashier than Nuge but the results do not back up the assertion that he is more effective offensively.

And again, I think Nuge does sign for $6-7M on an 8 year deal.

 

[CupofOil]

Here are the career numbers:

Duchene: .309 g/gp .434a/gp .743 pts/gp

Prorated to 82 games: 25g 36a 61pts

Nugent-Hopkins .280 g/gp .454 a/gp .737 pts/gp

Prorated to 82 games: 23g 37a 60pts

And unlike Nuge, Duchene has never been asked to be the primary defensive person on his line. In Ottawa for example, they simply played firewagon hockey. In 2016-2017 Colorado tired giving him more of a defensive role including putting him on the pk. He was asked to carry guys like Grigorenko and Matt Nietto. (sound familiar) The result was his worst offensive season. He also had his best year in Colorado playing the wing on Ryan O'Rielly's line which often included Nate MacKinnon by the way.

So while I agree that Nuge is the more reliable two-way player one wold think that if Duchene was a tier up offensively then it would show in the actual numbers after this long in the league. What he is is flashier than Nuge but the results do not back up the assertion that he is more effective offensively.

And again, I think Nuge does sign for $6-7M on an 8 year deal.

Duchene's highs are better than RNH.
Duchene had 4 seasons that matched Nuge's best season with 70 in 73, 70 in 71, 43 in 47 and a 67 point season, all without the McDrai boost which have certainly inflated his numbers of the last three seasons, two years ago and this season in particular. His career high was 56 points prior.

I like Nuge a lot, especially the offensively confident Nuge of the last two seasons, but Duchene has been a stronger driver of offense when he's on his game, more dynamic player.