Fourier
Registered User
Valette already acknowledged that the landscape for UFA's has changed with respect to Nuge. The Oilers also have the advantage that they can sign him for 8 years and are a team that has no trouble paying signing bonuses. Even if he hits 70 points a well structured deal could get him signed for less than $7.5M I'd bet. So I think you can save a little on your estimate their thoug you may be low on Larson so we'll call those two a wash.When you 'walk away', you still need to fill that role with someone who likely takes up a similar amount of salary. And if we're assuming the team is in contention in those years, you're not trading these players away in the midst of a playoff run. Not to mention impending UFAs don't generally hold a ton of value.
In regards to Nuge--I've said it before--be prepared to pay him close to $8m. Especially if he posts a 70 point season in 2020-21.
Also good point regarding Broberg, but it's a pretty big leap expecting him to be holding down a top four role on a contender just three seasons into his pro career. We're going to need a number of our prospects to pan out by year three.
AA is also an interesting topic this summer. You kind of have to make a judgement call on him.
As for a guy like Hall, he is also a player I think signs for less than others might expect if he is true to his word. I expect he comes in between $7-8M on an 7 year deal unless he wants to play most of the rest of his productive career on a rebuilding team.
Hall's resume has an MVP season and one other 80 point season that was 6 years ago. Right now he is about a 70 point player on most teams and he will be 29 years old when the season starts. If the expectation is that the cap will keep rising then he could get $9M on say a 5-6 year deal based on recent comparable. But if the cap is flat that drops down at least $1M I'd guess. Make it a 7 year deal and I think you could get him under $8M on a team he really wanted to be with. So hypothetically the question becomes can the Oilers afford a $8M player. I think the answer is yes even with future contracts pending.
The lineup you posted has a fair bit of fat in it. And another consequence of a flat cap is that there will be vets who will fill some of the missing slots cheaply.