Prospect Info: Round 3, Pick #72: Tyrell Goulbourne, Forward, Kelowna (WHL)

[Random Forest]

Yes, drafting guys with the high upside of the godly Zac Rinaldo in the third freaking round must be smart. If Rinaldo is the bar for third rounders I wonder what the bar for a 7th round pick is? Towel person?

Okay, I don't like the pick, but this is just stupid reasoning.

Nobody is going for a homerun player in the 3rd round and beyond. Chances are, even the most skilled player in the 3rd round is not going to ever sniff NHL ice. When you get to that point, you have to look for players who you can project to have an NHL impact. You don't draft for upside at this point in the draft. You draft for projected impact, and sometimes the player with the "higher upside" is much less likely to reach that upside than the player with lower upside has of reaching his.

Remember, a fourth line forward has more impact for the Flyers than an AHL superstar.

That said, stupid pick, and I don't understand it.

 

[Garbage Goal]

Hey man...just trying to be positive but yeah this pick looks pretty bad....

That first poster I replied to got me going but the blind faith and unnecessary overwhelmingly positive and arrogant remarks about how "we haven't seen him play" or "he could be Zac Rinaldo!" (as if that's a good thing) or "none of use can judge him because we're not professional scouts" bull crap is just annoying. I respect that you admitted that it was a bad pick, but people need to stop with this bull crap. It's really annoying.

I'm not being negative either. The consensus out there is that we picked a fricking goon in the third round similarly to what the Flyers did with Klotz.

The funny part is this thread has more post in it than the Hagg thread who is a steal in the second round.

Gee I wonder why that is? Maybe because it was a horrible pick reminiscent of Klotz?

 

[Garbage Goal]

Okay, I don't like the pick, but this is just stupid reasoning.

Nobody is going for a homerun player in the 3rd round and beyond. Chances are, even the most skilled player in the 3rd round is not going to ever sniff NHL ice. When you get to that point, you have to look for players who you can project to have an NHL impact. You don't draft for upside at this point in the draft. You draft for projected impact, and sometimes the player with the "higher upside" is much less likely to reach that upside than the player with lower upside has of reaching his.

Remember, a fourth line forward has more impact for the Flyers than an AHL superstar.

That said, stupid pick, and I don't understand it.

You get my point. A third round pick should have some modicum of hockey skill that, even if it's the slightest chance, could translate to the NHL.

 

[GKJ]

Okay, I don't like the pick, but this is just stupid reasoning.

Nobody is going for a homerun player in the 3rd round and beyond. Chances are, even the most skilled player in the 3rd round is not going to ever sniff NHL ice. When you get to that point, you have to look for players who you can project to have an NHL impact. You don't draft for upside at this point in the draft. You draft for projected impact, and sometimes the player with the "higher upside" is much less likely to reach that upside than the player with lower upside has of reaching his.

Remember, a fourth line forward has more impact for the Flyers than an AHL superstar.

That said, stupid pick, and I don't understand it.

No, in the 3rd round, you're still drafting for upside. Actually, you're drafting for upside the entire draft, even if it's as a defensive forward/penalty killing.

 

[kudymen]

I wish the guy was in the building and the NHLN would interview him

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

Dude throws absolute bombs, holy hell.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The fact that he's 19 too makes it even more mind blowing.

 

[Random Forest]

No, in the 3rd round, you're still drafting for upside. Actually, you're drafting for upside the entire draft, even if it's as a defensive forward/penalty killing.

No, you're not. That's a good way to get 0% effectiveness at the draft in the later rounds.

A guy like Matt Martin (5th round pick) had much lower "upside" in his draft than many of the players taken around him who outscored him in juniors. Those other guys with higher "upside" might be more talented, but their talents are in play at the AHL and ECHL levels while Martin has carved out a nice role in the NHL.

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

Anthony SanFilippo ‏@AnthonySan37 1m
ICYMI… Homer called Goulbourne "Z2" as in Zac Rinaldo 2.0

 

[KJS14]

No, you're not. That's a good way to get 0% effectiveness at the draft in the later rounds.

A guy like Matt Martin (5th round pick) had much lower "upside" in his draft than many of the players taken around him who outscored him in juniors. Those other guys with higher "upside" might be more talented, but their talents are in play at the AHL and ECHL levels while Martin has carved out a nice role in the NHL.

Are you trying to tell us this guy has a better chance to crack the lineup than Subban or Buchnevich? The 3rd round is so underrated. You're definitely still drafting upside at this point. Your looking for depth in the 5th, 6th, and 7th no doubt. The 3rd and 4th rounds can still produce solid NHL players. Heck, Subban was projected as a late first/early second for a while.

 

[CutOnDime97]

Cody Nickolet ‏@WHLFromAbove 11m

@FlyerProspects Yeah, it's not great in my mind. He was 44th on my WHL board, so basically considered a borderline 7th rounder.

 

[Curufinwe]

Anthony SanFilippo ‏@AnthonySan37 1m
ICYMI… Homer called Goulbourne "Z2" as in Zac Rinaldo 2.0

Then they should have taken him in the 6th round.

 

[CutOnDime97]

It seems like the consensus is that he would have been available later in the draft. Not sure why we got him so early on then.

 

[GKJ]

No, you're not. That's a good way to get 0% effectiveness at the draft in the later rounds.

A guy like Matt Martin (5th round pick) had much lower "upside" in his draft than many of the players taken around him who outscored him in juniors. Those other guys with higher "upside" might be more talented, but their talents are in play at the AHL and ECHL levels while Martin has carved out a nice role in the NHL.

You're still taking best player available. 5th round picks are supposed to have lower upside, that's why they're 5th round picks. 3rd round picks should still be players who you anticipate playing third line roles at the very least, if not higher.

 

[Random Forest]

Are you trying to tell us this guy has a better chance to crack the lineup than Subban or Buchnevich? The 3rd round is so underrated. You're definitely still drafting upside at this point. Your looking for depth in the 5th, 6th, and 7th no doubt. The 3rd and 4th rounds can still produce solid NHL players. Heck, Subban was projected as a late first/early second for a while.

Again, I don't like the pick. But while Subban might have "higher upside", his likelihood of being an effective NHL player is minuscule. If Goulbourne beats the odds and finds a fourth line role in the future, he will be one of the best players to come out of the third round (obviously unlikely, don't get me wrong).

One more time, just so you don't forget, I hate the pick, too. But the chances for any of these players to become something special is just so tiny.

 

[Random Forest]

You're still taking best player available. 5th round picks are supposed to have lower upside, that's why they're 5th round picks. 3rd round picks should still be players who you anticipate playing third line roles at the very least, if not higher.

No. No they're not.

Did you not hear McKenzie today during the first round? "Player X projects to be a strong two way third line player". That was the first round.

So few players become stars. The reality is, the odds are still against most of these players. Marc-Andre Bourdon was one of the most successful players from the third round in his draft class. Just think about that.

 

[Psuhockey]

Again, I don't like the pick. But while Subban might have "higher upside", his likelihood of being an effective NHL player is minuscule. If Goulbourne beats the odds and finds a fourth line role in the future, he will be one of the best players to come out of the third round (obviously unlikely, don't get me wrong).

One more time, just so you don't forget, I hate the pick, too. But the chances for any of these players to become something special is just so tiny.

Heres the problem I have with it: the Flyers chose players with the most upside in round 1 and round 2 ahead of players who were more likely to reach their lesser potential in the NHL. If Morin and Hagg hit, the Flyers walk out with not only 1st pair defensemen but in the case of Morin, another Chara. But there is risk they don't hit that potential. With Goulbourne, the upside is minuscule. He might make the NHL ahead of other guys in the 3rd rd, but at most as a 4th liner. Why go big in round 1 and 2 and shoot low in 3? Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[GKJ]

No. No they're not.

Did you not hear McKenzie today during the first round? "Player X projects to be a strong two way third line player". That was the first round.

So few players become stars. The reality is, the odds are still against most of these players. Marc-Andre Bourdon was one of the most successful players from the third round in his draft class. Just think about that.

Can't help it if Bourdon's draft class was so bad that guys like Rinaldo were being drafted. The level of impact depth within the organization, especially on the high-end, can best be described as 'decrepit.' The highest possible value should be used on every pick. ASF is saying that Holmgren already described him as Zac Rinaldo 2.0. That's poor value. That's not even saying "he's a project pick with good skating who should get more ice time to develop."

 

[nuclear reactor]

Great pick. You need guys who can play on the fourth line too. Rinaldo went in the 7th round but if the draft were held again he would go in the 2nd.

 

[Random Forest]

Heres the problem I have with it: the Flyers chose players with the most upside in round 1 and round 2 ahead of players who were more likely to reach their lesser potential in the NHL. If Morin and Hagg hit, the Flyers walk out with not only 1st pair defensemen but in the case of Morin, another Chara. But there is risk they don't hit that potential. With Goulbourne, the upside is minuscule. He might make the NHL ahead of other guys in the 3rd rd, but at most as a 4th liner. Why go big in round 1 and 2 and shoot low in 3? Doesn't make sense to me.

The problem I have with it is simply that Goulbourne would have been there later. I don't have a problem taking "useless goons" if the expectation is that they can be a heart and soul fourth liner in the future. My issue is just that you could have picked him up later.

 

[sa cyred]

Great pick. You need guys who can play on the fourth line too. Rinaldo went in the 7th round but if the draft were held again he would go in the 2nd.

Ya.... just like all those other 4th liners that do what Rinaldo does and gets drafted in the 2nd. Nice troll I guess though?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The problem I have with it is simply that Goulbourne would have been there later. I don't have a problem taking "useless goons" if the expectation is that they can be a heart and soul fourth liner in the future. My issue is just that you could have picked him up later.

That's pretty much my complaint with it is the place where he was drafted. If we drafted him 6th round or later I could care less but 3rd is a little crazy especially with 2nd round grade guys still on the board.

 

[achdumeingute]

Heres the problem I have with it: the Flyers chose players with the most upside in round 1 and round 2 ahead of players who were more likely to reach their lesser potential in the NHL. If Morin and Hagg hit, the Flyers walk out with not only 1st pair defensemen but in the case of Morin, another Chara. But there is risk they don't hit that potential. With Goulbourne, the upside is minuscule. He might make the NHL ahead of other guys in the 3rd rd, but at most as a 4th liner. Why go big in round 1 and 2 and shoot low in 3? Doesn't make sense to me.

Because he has a number of intangibles to make him a good 4th liner?

he will do anything, is great with teammates, and works his butt off.

 

[Random Forest]

Can't help it if Bourdon's draft class was so bad that guys like Rinaldo were being drafted. The level of impact depth within the organization, especially on the high-end, can best be described as 'decrepit.' The highest possible value should be used on every pick. ASF is saying that Holmgren already described him as Zac Rinaldo 2.0. That's poor value. That's not even saying "he's a project pick with good skating who should get more ice time to develop."

It had nothing to do with MAB's draft class. It has to do with the fact that the third round and beyond is a crapshoot.


If you go with the highest upside player every time (in the third round+), you'd be loaded with ECHL and AHL scoring champions.

Generally no more than four or five players from any given third round become NHL regulars. And here you are expecting them to be regular third liners. Come on, give me a break. Each year you have about two, maybe three, impact players from the third round, and about five or six fourth line filler players. The rest don't even play one game in the league. Those fillers players, in most cases, had lower upside than the total busts who never played in the NHL. Sure, occasionally you'll hit a home run, but I can guarantee you that not even Pittsburgh or New Jersey expected to hit home runs with Letang and Henrique.

 

[KJS14]

No. No they're not.

Did you not hear McKenzie today during the first round? "Player X projects to be a strong two way third line player". That was the first round.

So few players become stars. The reality is, the odds are still against most of these players. Marc-Andre Bourdon was one of the most successful players from the third round in his draft class. Just think about that.

The reality is that there are still solid NHL players in the 3rd round with good upside. Zdeno Chara, Brad Richards, Brian Gionta, Craig Anderson, Patrick Sharp, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, and Adam Henrique were all 3rd round picks. So you're telling me that these teams should have drafted for depth instead? I'd rather gamble on upside in the 3rd round and end up with a player of this caliber even if it's once every 10-20 years. I'd take one Chara, Quick, or Letang over twenty Rinaldos.